USD: 3 Narratives Supporting A Stronger USD Into Year-End - ING

ING Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD over the coming weeks.

"Last week’s action in the FX market conveyed a clear message that it is too early to turn more structurally bearish on the dollar or bullish on pro-cyclical currencies. This week, markets may find further confirmation that this is the case, with a few key threads to follow.

First, US CPI figures on Thursday should show a decline (we estimate from 8.3% to 8.1%) in headline inflation caused primarily by lower gasoline prices, but at the same time an acceleration in the core rate (we estimate from 6.3% to 6.5%), mainly driven by housing costs and recreation prices," ING notes.

"Second, Fed communication. A 75bp hike for November and a 4.60-4.70% peak rate are now in the price, but additional hawkish comments – if backed by an inflation surprise for example – could encourage markets to speculate on larger hikes or a more prolonged tightening cycle.

Third, geopolitical and energy market developments. There have been signs over the weekend that any optimism over an imminent de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict may be misplaced.

A re-test of the 114.76 September high in DXY is our base case over the next few days," ING adds.

Three reasons to buy Gold now – UBS

Gold remains 8.2% higher since the start of this year, and economists at UBS think it is likely to break its all-time high later this year with multiple mid- to longer-term drivers.

1. Central bank demand should remain robust
“Central banks are on track to buy around 700 metric tons of Gold this year, much higher than the average since 2010 of below 500 metric tons. We think this trend of central bank buying is likely to continue amid heightened geopolitical risks and elevated inflation.”

2. Broad US Dollar weakness supports Gold
“The direction of a weakening USD is clear, we believe the reduction in US yield carry will continue to weigh on the greenback. Gold has historically performed well when the US Dollar softens due to their strong negative correlation, and we see another round of USD weakness over the next 6-12 months.”

3. Rising US recession risks may prompt safe-haven flows
“Recent data coming out of the US showed the country’s growth is slowing. Tighter credit conditions, evidenced by the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, are also likely to weigh on growth and corporate profits. Based on data since 1980, Gold’s relative performance versus the S&P 500 improved significantly during US recessions.”

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XAU/USD to see strength back to $1,968, then $2,063/2,075 record highs – Credit Suisse

Gold has achieved Credit Suise’s target/support zone at $1,900/1,890, and the bank looks for a floor here.

A weekly close below $1,862 would be seen to reinforce the longer-term sideways range.

Gold has achieved our target of price support and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022/2023 uptrend at $1,900/1,890. With the key rising 200-DMA seen not far below $1,862, our bias remains for a major floor to be found here.

We thus look for $1,862 to hold on a closing basis for strength back to the 55-DMA at $1,968 initially, then a retest of major resistance at the $2,063/2,075 record highs. We still stay biased to an eventual break to new record highs later in the year, which would then be seen to open the door to a move above $2,300.

A weekly close below $1,862 though would be seen to reinforce the longer-term sideways range, and a fall to support next at $1,810/05.

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Gold is booming primarily due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. imposing tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and China responding with 125% tariffs on U.S. imports—measures that have weakened the U.S. dollar and triggered a flight to safe-haven assets. At the same time, global central banks are ramping up gold purchases to diversify away from the dollar, boosting overall demand. Adding to this momentum are persistent geopolitical conflicts and inflation concerns, prompting investors to turn to gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

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Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts.

#GBPUSD #WeeklyUpdate #TradeIdeas

In the coming weeks, GBPUSD may start falling.