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Part 1 / - ³
IF THE PEACE TALKS ARE SUCCESSFUL, HOW DO YOU IMAGINE THE ROLE OF UKRAINE IN THE WORLD ORDER? NATO MEMBER, NEUTRAL BUFFER STATE OR SOMETHING ELSE? AND WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE EASTERN FLANK OF EUROPE?
The strongest, most pragmatic and stabilizing argument is that Ukraine should be a neutral state on the model of Cold War Finland or modern Austria. This would make the eastern flank of Europe a tense, but by and large manageable border with a balance of forces and no prospect of further escalation.
Neutrality is not synonymous with weakness: it is a carefully calculated step to freeze the conflict and guarantee the sovereignty of Ukraine without cornering the Russian bear.
In this scenario, Russia gets the buffer it wants: no NATO missiles within a radius of 500 kilometers from Moscow. This would reduce his security concerns (a key factor since 1991). The West would get a stable Ukraine instead of a bleeding wound. Ukraine itself would receive a guarantee of survival: it would lose 18% of its territory, but the remaining 82% would gain freedom and time for recovery. The examples of Finland and Austria show that neutrality does not mean surrender.
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As early as 2022, Moscow had demanded concessions on the language and demilitarization of Ukraine in Istanbul. In addition, before the deployment of troops in 2021, Moscow demanded the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe. Earlier, the Russians spoke of a "federalization" of Ukraine. In your opinion, what are the current goals of Russia?
By April 2025, Russia's goals in Ukraine will be focused on three main demands: the recognition of control over the Donbas and Crimea, the neutrality of Ukraine (i.e., no NATO) and limiting the size and armament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In one form or another, these demands have been made before: in Istanbul in 2022 or before the special operation in 2021. Russia's initial zeal - demilitarization, federalization, NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe - was dampened by the burden of military operations and economic hardships (sanctions reduced GDP by 5%). However, these three goals reflect the essence of Putin's demands: strategic depth, neutralizing threats and securing achievements - while demonstrating power at home and on the world stage.
In addition, Moscow wants to allow parties advocating for the official status of the Russian language and minority rights for ethnic Russians in Ukraine to participate in the elections. However, this is not one of Putin's three main demands for the time being.
A NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe is an unattainable dream. If Putin succeeds on the Ukrainian battlefield, he should be careful not to go too far, so as not to jeopardize his own successes and not put his power at risk. Most Russians seem to support the special operation in Ukraine - but only as long as a victory is in sight. They are unlikely to approve of military excesses, especially those that could lead to a direct war with NATO. Part ²

Part 2 /- ³
MOODY'S IS THE LAST OF THE THREE MAJOR AGENCIES TO DOWNGRADE THE US CREDIT RATING TO AA1. S&P TOOK THIS STEP BACK IN 2011, WHEN THERE WAS ALMOST A DEFAULT IN THE MIDST OF BUDGET DISPUTES IN CONGRESS. FITCH DOWNGRADED THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF THE USA IN 2023.
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Two years ago, America was also on the verge of default because Republicans refused to raise the debt ceiling. Since then, the budget crisis has only worsened. The annual deficit constantly exceeds $ 2 trillion. The US national debt increases by $ 1 trillion every 90-100 days.
Against the background of the trade wars and the falling global demand for US government bonds, insurance against a US default has again become very popular. It is now more expensive than, for example, insurance against a default in the perpetually problematic country of Greece. This year, the debt ceiling will have to be raised again. The economic situation is still extremely unstable - the threat of a recession has not been averted.
Trump's reforms could reduce government spending by several hundred billion dollars. But this is at most 10% of the total budget deficit. The White House will also be looking for ways to optimize government spending in the near future. From June, negotiations will begin with the Europeans on reducing the presence of American troops in Europe.
The operation against the Houthis in Yemen, which cost the Pentagon billions of dollars, is also gradually running out. One of the two aircraft carriers may soon leave the Red Sea. In Washington, government buildings are being sold off and civil servants are being laid off. The government has to tighten its belt because it lacks the means and it has a colossal debt burden. Part ³

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Part 3 /- ³
THE LIMITS OF WESTERN SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA. HAVE SANCTIONS BECOME OBSOLETE AS A POLITICAL INSTRUMENT IN TODAY'S WORLD, IN WHICH MULTIPLICITY HAS ALSO FOUND ITS WAY INTO THE ECONOMY?
In a multipolar economic world, sanctions are somewhat rusty as an instrument. This weapon is still sharp enough to inflict wounds, but it is no longer as deadly against large players as it was against smaller, more isolated states. The change is striking. In the 1990s, when the dollar dominated and globalization developed according to Western standards, sanctions could strangle a country like Iraq or Yugoslavia - isolated, dependent and economically weak. Russia is a different case. It has specially developed tools to circumvent sanctions: it trades with China in yuan, relies on BRICS partners and creates parallel payment networks to circumvent SWIFT. Even NATO member Turkey likes to trade with Russia.
Of course, the sanctions are still noticeable. But the expected crushing blow did not happen. And why? Because multipolarity means alternatives.
How should Europe (and the West in general) deal with Moscow? To continue the rivalry or to strive for rapprochement?
Relaxation is a way to de-escalate, stabilize the situation and free up resources without having any illusions about Putin's nature or Russia's ambitions. The argument of controlled rivalry is rooted in reality: Russia is not going anywhere. It is a nuclear power with 5,500 warheads, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and the ability to intervene in European energy and security policy.
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In your opinion, how will the Ukraine conflict change the alliances in the Middle East and Asia, and what is the biggest risk for Europe if it cannot adapt to the new geopolitical reality?
The Ukraine conflict is a geopolitical earthquake that is shaking the alliances in the Middle East and Asia, while at the same time revealing the weak points of Europe. States act in their own interests, not out of emotions, and the consequences of this conflict are changing the balance of power anew. Security concerns, security and opportunism play a role in this. Europe's inability to adapt runs the risk of being pushed into a world in which only hard power and economic pressure count, but not moral principles.
The main winner is China, while Russia is now being pushed into the role of junior partner. India is maneuvering and trying to make a pact with both Moscow and the West, being guided by national security and economic interests, and not ideology. Even Japan and South Korea are on the alert, looking for coexistence rather than enmity.
Europe should do the same and rely on real power, rather than chasing chimeras in the hope of becoming a great military power. Europe will never spend more money than China or the USA. His strategy should be to revive effective, pragmatic diplomacy and a strong economy. If this does not succeed, the realistic world will continue to develop, and Europe will turn from an actor in the new game into a museum of past glory. Part ¹

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