Natural History and Tumor Volume Kinetics of #Papillary #Thyroid Cancers During Active Surveillance
http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2650803

During a median (range) active surveillance of 25 (6-166) months, growth in tumor diameter of 3 mm or more was observed in 11 of 291 (3.8%) patients, with a cumulative incidence of 2.5% (2 years) and 12.1% (5 years). No regional or distant metastases developed during active surveillance. In all cases, 3-dimensional measurements of tumor volume allowed for earlier identification of growth (median, 8.2 months; range, 3-46 months before increase in tumor diameter).

In multivariable analysis, both younger age at diagnosis (hazard ratio per year, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98; P = .006) and risk category at presentation (hazard ratio for inappropriate, 55.17; 95% CI, 9.4-323.19; P < .001) were independently associated with the likelihood of tumor growth. Of the tumors experiencing volume growth, kinetics demonstrated a classic exponential growth pattern, with a median doubling time of 2.2 years

Conclusions and Relevance The rates of tumor growth during active surveillance in a US cohort with PTCs measuring 1.5 cm or less were low. Serial measurement of tumor volumes may facilitate early identification of tumors that will continue to grow and thereby inform the timing of surveillance imaging and therapeutic interventions