#EURUSD
The primary scenario for today remains the continuation of downward pressure on the pair. Following the strong JOLTS statistics, the dollar received additional support, and today's US data could amplify this momentum and act as a catalyst for a further decline in EURUSD. 📉
📋 Trading Plan:
I will consider a breakout of the 1.14000 level as a signal to open short positions (sells).
🎯 Targets: 1.13813 → 1.13716.
If today's US statistics come out in line with forecasts or better, I expect the dollar to continue strengthening, pushing the pair toward the 1.13600 area. For now, the advantage remains firmly with the sellers. 🧭
The primary scenario for today remains the continuation of downward pressure on the pair. Following the strong JOLTS statistics, the dollar received additional support, and today's US data could amplify this momentum and act as a catalyst for a further decline in EURUSD. 📉
📋 Trading Plan:
I will consider a breakout of the 1.14000 level as a signal to open short positions (sells).
🎯 Targets: 1.13813 → 1.13716.
If today's US statistics come out in line with forecasts or better, I expect the dollar to continue strengthening, pushing the pair toward the 1.13600 area. For now, the advantage remains firmly with the sellers. 🧭
🥇 Gold is seeing some buying pressure off the 3960 level, but the overall bearish trend remains intact with a squeeze against the trendline. A breakdown of this level could open up short positions targeting 3900.
👉 Major funds continue to sideline gold, preferring to park their capital in US Treasuries. However, the asset is finding support from steady central bank demand as they continue to build up their reserves.
📌 A key driver this week will be the US labor market data, which could significantly impact the price. Keep a close eye on the news!
👉 Major funds continue to sideline gold, preferring to park their capital in US Treasuries. However, the asset is finding support from steady central bank demand as they continue to build up their reserves.
📌 A key driver this week will be the US labor market data, which could significantly impact the price. Keep a close eye on the news!
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#USDJPY
The US dollar continues to show strong growth against the Japanese yen. Right now, the pair is trading at 162.68.
🚀 Over the past few weeks, the pair has broken through the psychologically important 160.00 level and has confidently consolidated above it, continuing to reach new multi-year highs.
👉 According to expert estimates, the upward trend is expected to continue. If the Bank of Japan does not take concrete (rather than just verbal) steps, the pair has the potential to rise into the 165.00 – 167.00 range.
Alternative scenario: In the event of a harsh monetary intervention by Tokyo or unexpectedly weak US economic data, a sharp and deep pullback is possible, dropping down to the 155.00 – 157.00 levels.
📌 Technically, the pair is in overbought territory on the RSI, which could amplify a sharp correction.
The US dollar continues to show strong growth against the Japanese yen. Right now, the pair is trading at 162.68.
🚀 Over the past few weeks, the pair has broken through the psychologically important 160.00 level and has confidently consolidated above it, continuing to reach new multi-year highs.
👉 According to expert estimates, the upward trend is expected to continue. If the Bank of Japan does not take concrete (rather than just verbal) steps, the pair has the potential to rise into the 165.00 – 167.00 range.
Alternative scenario: In the event of a harsh monetary intervention by Tokyo or unexpectedly weak US economic data, a sharp and deep pullback is possible, dropping down to the 155.00 – 157.00 levels.
📌 Technically, the pair is in overbought territory on the RSI, which could amplify a sharp correction.
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Good afternoon, dear traders! 📊
The main market theme is geopolitics. Despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East, investors are gradually reducing the geopolitical premium. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the market is pricing in fewer risks of supply disruptions. 🌍🕊
Brent crude has dropped toward $71 per barrel and remains under pressure. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of increased supply are limiting any upside potential. Market participants will now closely monitor any statements regarding the US-Iran negotiations, as these could dictate the future direction of prices. 🛢📉
The main event of the day is the Non-Farm Payrolls (15:30 MSK). This is one of the most critical monthly reports for financial markets. Today, investors will evaluate not only the number of new jobs created but also the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings dynamics. 🇺🇸📊
✔️ Strong data could strengthen the dollar and reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish policy. 🦅💵
✔️ Disappointing statistics could cause the market to price in a more dovish interest rate scenario, putting pressure on the USD and supporting risk assets. 📉💸
Following the NFP publication, a sharp spike in volatility is expected across EUR/USD, gold, oil, stock indexes, and cryptocurrencies. Today, it is particularly important to wait for the market's structural reaction to the data rather than entering trades on the initial emotional moves. 🧭⚠️
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading session and maximum profits! 🚀
The main market theme is geopolitics. Despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East, investors are gradually reducing the geopolitical premium. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the market is pricing in fewer risks of supply disruptions. 🌍🕊
Brent crude has dropped toward $71 per barrel and remains under pressure. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of increased supply are limiting any upside potential. Market participants will now closely monitor any statements regarding the US-Iran negotiations, as these could dictate the future direction of prices. 🛢📉
The main event of the day is the Non-Farm Payrolls (15:30 MSK). This is one of the most critical monthly reports for financial markets. Today, investors will evaluate not only the number of new jobs created but also the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings dynamics. 🇺🇸📊
Following the NFP publication, a sharp spike in volatility is expected across EUR/USD, gold, oil, stock indexes, and cryptocurrencies. Today, it is particularly important to wait for the market's structural reaction to the data rather than entering trades on the initial emotional moves. 🧭⚠️
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading session and maximum profits! 🚀
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Good afternoon, dear traders! 📊
🛢 Oil remains the primary indicator of market sentiment. Following the release of yesterday's US labor market data, Brent managed to hold above $72 per barrel; however, it is still too early to talk about the return of a sustainable uptrend. Investors continue to price out the geopolitical premium amid progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the restoration of shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz.
📉 At the same time, the oil market still faces risks of oversupply. Saudi Arabia has practically restored its exports to pre-crisis levels, and analysts are increasingly pointing to a surplus of crude over the short-term horizon. This is precisely why any attempts to rally remain limited for now.
📊 The main event of yesterday was the Non-Farm Payrolls. The report came in weaker than expected, which lowered the probability of an imminent Fed rate hike. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar corrected downward, while global stock markets received a boost.
📈 European indexes reacted particularly positively. Investors began revising their expectations for US interest rates, which eased pressure on global markets and supported demand for risk assets. Additional optimism came from ECB officials' comments regarding more balanced risks for the Eurozone economy.
💵 The Dollar Index remains near the 100.5 mark, though its further dynamics will depend on whether market participants continue to reassess Fed policy expectations following yesterday's statistics.
🌍 Geopolitics have certainly not disappeared. The negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, but the parties still disagree on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Any news from this direction is capable of swiftly bringing volatility back to the commodity and currency markets.
⚠️ Today, investors' attention will be focused on the development of the negotiation process and the market's ongoing reaction to yesterday's jobs report. For now, the weak NFP is working against the dollar, while the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East continues to put pressure on oil.
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading session and maximum profits! 🚀
🛢 Oil remains the primary indicator of market sentiment. Following the release of yesterday's US labor market data, Brent managed to hold above $72 per barrel; however, it is still too early to talk about the return of a sustainable uptrend. Investors continue to price out the geopolitical premium amid progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the restoration of shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz.
📉 At the same time, the oil market still faces risks of oversupply. Saudi Arabia has practically restored its exports to pre-crisis levels, and analysts are increasingly pointing to a surplus of crude over the short-term horizon. This is precisely why any attempts to rally remain limited for now.
📊 The main event of yesterday was the Non-Farm Payrolls. The report came in weaker than expected, which lowered the probability of an imminent Fed rate hike. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar corrected downward, while global stock markets received a boost.
📈 European indexes reacted particularly positively. Investors began revising their expectations for US interest rates, which eased pressure on global markets and supported demand for risk assets. Additional optimism came from ECB officials' comments regarding more balanced risks for the Eurozone economy.
💵 The Dollar Index remains near the 100.5 mark, though its further dynamics will depend on whether market participants continue to reassess Fed policy expectations following yesterday's statistics.
🌍 Geopolitics have certainly not disappeared. The negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, but the parties still disagree on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Any news from this direction is capable of swiftly bringing volatility back to the commodity and currency markets.
⚠️ Today, investors' attention will be focused on the development of the negotiation process and the market's ongoing reaction to yesterday's jobs report. For now, the weak NFP is working against the dollar, while the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East continues to put pressure on oil.
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading session and maximum profits! 🚀
🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY) 💵
What is driving the market? This entire week was defined by the anticipation of US labor market data (NFP, unemployment). These figures are a key indicator for the Fed. 🔹 The labor market is cooling (data worse than forecasts) ➡️ The Fed may accelerate rate cuts ➡️ DXY falls.
📊 Technical picture On the chart, the index has returned to a key level that previously acted as resistance.
Support: 100.00–100.50 zone.
Resistance: 102.00 zone.
🔮 Possible scenarios:
Bearish scenario: A breakdown of the 100.00 support will open the way to 99.00. This will serve as excellent fuel for the growth of crypto, gold, and stock indices.
Bullish scenario: A sharp buyback and a return above 101.00. In this case, risk assets will come under heavy pressure.
💡 Summary: Monday's market open will determine the trend for the first half of the month. Long-term, the index is still in a bullish growth phase!
#DXY #Dollar
What is driving the market? This entire week was defined by the anticipation of US labor market data (NFP, unemployment). These figures are a key indicator for the Fed. 🔹 The labor market is cooling (data worse than forecasts) ➡️ The Fed may accelerate rate cuts ➡️ DXY falls.
📊 Technical picture On the chart, the index has returned to a key level that previously acted as resistance.
Support: 100.00–100.50 zone.
Resistance: 102.00 zone.
🔮 Possible scenarios:
Bearish scenario: A breakdown of the 100.00 support will open the way to 99.00. This will serve as excellent fuel for the growth of crypto, gold, and stock indices.
Bullish scenario: A sharp buyback and a return above 101.00. In this case, risk assets will come under heavy pressure.
💡 Summary: Monday's market open will determine the trend for the first half of the month. Long-term, the index is still in a bullish growth phase!
#DXY #Dollar
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Oil futures are trading in a narrow range of $71.00 – $72.00 per barrel, having failed to break below the psychological support level of $70.00.
🔹 Downward Drivers: A decrease in the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East. Improved shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and rumors of progress in indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have calmed investors.
🔹 Fundamentals: The main pressure factor is the growing expectation of a supply surplus (glut) in the global market. OPEC countries are also planning to increase production in August.
👉 If buyers manage to hold the price above 70, we might see a technical rebound to $75 per barrel. If the price breaks down below 70, consider short positions with a target of $68.
🔹 Downward Drivers: A decrease in the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East. Improved shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and rumors of progress in indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have calmed investors.
🔹 Fundamentals: The main pressure factor is the growing expectation of a supply surplus (glut) in the global market. OPEC countries are also planning to increase production in August.
👉 If buyers manage to hold the price above 70, we might see a technical rebound to $75 per barrel. If the price breaks down below 70, consider short positions with a target of $68.
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✅ The technical picture for gold remains quite intriguing. After recent volatility, the market is looking for a balance, and we are currently in an important decision-making zone.
📌 Current price: Prices are trading in the range of $4,150 – $4,200 per troy ounce. Trend: The structure remains bearish; the asset is trading within a corrective phase. The price has found solid support above the psychological mark of $4,000.
Indicators: The MACD shows a narrowing of the histogram in the negative zone (selling pressure is gradually exhausting), while the RSI has stabilized in the neutral zone.
👉 In the upcoming trading sessions, the price's reaction to local resistance levels will play a key role. If Gold fails to consolidate above 4200, the price will head for another test of the 4000 level, but the amplitude of the movement will gradually decrease.
📌 Current price: Prices are trading in the range of $4,150 – $4,200 per troy ounce. Trend: The structure remains bearish; the asset is trading within a corrective phase. The price has found solid support above the psychological mark of $4,000.
Indicators: The MACD shows a narrowing of the histogram in the negative zone (selling pressure is gradually exhausting), while the RSI has stabilized in the neutral zone.
👉 In the upcoming trading sessions, the price's reaction to local resistance levels will play a key role. If Gold fails to consolidate above 4200, the price will head for another test of the 4000 level, but the amplitude of the movement will gradually decrease.
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Good afternoon, dear traders! 📊
🛢 Oil starts the week under pressure. Brent is trading near $71 per barrel as the market continues to price out the geopolitical premium. Following the restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, focus is increasingly shifting away from deficit risks and toward a potential supply surplus.
📉 Additional pressure stems from several factors simultaneously. OPEC+ continues to gradually increase production, while demand from China remains weak. PRC oil imports have dropped noticeably over recent months, reinforcing fears regarding a slowdown in global demand. At the same time, following the easing of restrictions, Iran may also face difficulties selling its oil as buyers in the market become increasingly scarce.
💵 Following the weak Non-Farm Payrolls, investors revised their expectations for the Fed rate, though the dollar remains fairly resilient for now. This week, attention will be locked onto the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, as well as speeches from US and European regulatory officials. Their comments are what could determine the future direction for the currency market.
📈 European stock indexes continue to hold near historic highs. Weaker US labor market data has supported interest in risk assets, while falling oil prices have reduced concerns over inflationary pressures.
⚠️ The main drivers of the week remain news on the US-Iran negotiations, comments from Fed and ECB officials, and signals regarding the state of the global economy. For now, oil stays under pressure while the market awaits new guideposts for interest rates.
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading week and maximum profits! 🚀
🛢 Oil starts the week under pressure. Brent is trading near $71 per barrel as the market continues to price out the geopolitical premium. Following the restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, focus is increasingly shifting away from deficit risks and toward a potential supply surplus.
📉 Additional pressure stems from several factors simultaneously. OPEC+ continues to gradually increase production, while demand from China remains weak. PRC oil imports have dropped noticeably over recent months, reinforcing fears regarding a slowdown in global demand. At the same time, following the easing of restrictions, Iran may also face difficulties selling its oil as buyers in the market become increasingly scarce.
💵 Following the weak Non-Farm Payrolls, investors revised their expectations for the Fed rate, though the dollar remains fairly resilient for now. This week, attention will be locked onto the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, as well as speeches from US and European regulatory officials. Their comments are what could determine the future direction for the currency market.
📈 European stock indexes continue to hold near historic highs. Weaker US labor market data has supported interest in risk assets, while falling oil prices have reduced concerns over inflationary pressures.
⚠️ The main drivers of the week remain news on the US-Iran negotiations, comments from Fed and ECB officials, and signals regarding the state of the global economy. For now, oil stays under pressure while the market awaits new guideposts for interest rates.
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading week and maximum profits! 🚀
🚀 SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq today! What will happen to the market?
🔹 SpaceX Rally: Passive funds are obligated to buy the asset. With a free float of only 5%, this will trigger a price spike. 🔹 Pressure on Big Tech: To free up cash for SPCX, funds will have to sell Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft shares. Expect a drawdown in the rest of the tech sector. 🔹 The Nasdaq itself won't artificially jump (the benchmark's math will kick in), but it will face heavy turbulence due to capital redistribution.
Wild volatility awaits us. This is the perfect chance to grab solid profits on massive moves!
👉 Don't miss the moment — trade Nasdaq index volatility right now!
🔹 SpaceX Rally: Passive funds are obligated to buy the asset. With a free float of only 5%, this will trigger a price spike. 🔹 Pressure on Big Tech: To free up cash for SPCX, funds will have to sell Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft shares. Expect a drawdown in the rest of the tech sector. 🔹 The Nasdaq itself won't artificially jump (the benchmark's math will kick in), but it will face heavy turbulence due to capital redistribution.
Wild volatility awaits us. This is the perfect chance to grab solid profits on massive moves!
👉 Don't miss the moment — trade Nasdaq index volatility right now!
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Good afternoon, dear traders! 📊
🌍 Geopolitics moves back to the forefront. Overnight, Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively breaking a week-long lull in escalation. According to media reports, at least two ships sustained damage, and Washington is already considering potential retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. The market is once again forced to price geopolitical risks into current valuations. 💥
🛢 Oil received an immediate boost from these developments. Any flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz instantly revives fears of supply disruptions, given that a significant portion of global oil exports passes through this vital shipping lane. If tensions continue to mount, volatility across the oil market is set to increase noticeably.
💵 The US Dollar also remains in demand as a safe-haven asset. Aside from geopolitics, investors keep a close eye on Fed policy expectations and upcoming US macroeconomic data, which could dictate the next major move for the DXY index. 🦅
🪙 Bitcoin is holding above $63,000, though sentiment remains mixed. On one hand, capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed, providing a solid cushion for the market. On the other hand, the escalation in geopolitical tensions and a general drop in risk appetite are capping the upside potential for cryptocurrencies.
⚠️ Today, market participants will focus heavily on updates from the Middle East and the broader financial market reaction. For now, geopolitics remains the absolute main driver moving oil, the dollar, and risk-on assets.
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading session and maximum profits! 🚀
🌍 Geopolitics moves back to the forefront. Overnight, Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively breaking a week-long lull in escalation. According to media reports, at least two ships sustained damage, and Washington is already considering potential retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. The market is once again forced to price geopolitical risks into current valuations. 💥
🛢 Oil received an immediate boost from these developments. Any flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz instantly revives fears of supply disruptions, given that a significant portion of global oil exports passes through this vital shipping lane. If tensions continue to mount, volatility across the oil market is set to increase noticeably.
💵 The US Dollar also remains in demand as a safe-haven asset. Aside from geopolitics, investors keep a close eye on Fed policy expectations and upcoming US macroeconomic data, which could dictate the next major move for the DXY index. 🦅
🪙 Bitcoin is holding above $63,000, though sentiment remains mixed. On one hand, capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed, providing a solid cushion for the market. On the other hand, the escalation in geopolitical tensions and a general drop in risk appetite are capping the upside potential for cryptocurrencies.
⚠️ Today, market participants will focus heavily on updates from the Middle East and the broader financial market reaction. For now, geopolitics remains the absolute main driver moving oil, the dollar, and risk-on assets.
Wishing everyone a highly disciplined trading session and maximum profits! 🚀
Good afternoon, dear traders! 📊
🌍 The main theme of the market is a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The US has launched a series of strikes on Iranian military facilities, followed by Tehran's retaliation against US assets in the region. The negotiation process has effectively been put on hold, and geopolitical risks have taken center stage once again. 💥
🛢 Brent crude responded sharply, rising above $76 per barrel. Following the cancellation of oil sanctions relief for Iran, the market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. If tensions continue to escalate, prices are likely to maintain their upward momentum.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated above 101 as investors shift heavily into safe-haven assets. As long as demand for the greenback persists, pressure on major currency pairs will remain high.
🌟 Gold is holding strong above $4,120 per ounce, confirming intense demand for defensive instruments. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading around $62,800, remaining under pressure due to a broader drop in risk appetite across financial markets.
⚠️ Today, market participants will be tightly focused on further statements from both the US and Iran. Any news regarding fresh military strikes or attempts to revive talks could trigger sharp, volatile moves in oil, forex, and equity markets.
🌍 The main theme of the market is a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The US has launched a series of strikes on Iranian military facilities, followed by Tehran's retaliation against US assets in the region. The negotiation process has effectively been put on hold, and geopolitical risks have taken center stage once again. 💥
🛢 Brent crude responded sharply, rising above $76 per barrel. Following the cancellation of oil sanctions relief for Iran, the market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. If tensions continue to escalate, prices are likely to maintain their upward momentum.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated above 101 as investors shift heavily into safe-haven assets. As long as demand for the greenback persists, pressure on major currency pairs will remain high.
🌟 Gold is holding strong above $4,120 per ounce, confirming intense demand for defensive instruments. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading around $62,800, remaining under pressure due to a broader drop in risk appetite across financial markets.
⚠️ Today, market participants will be tightly focused on further statements from both the US and Iran. Any news regarding fresh military strikes or attempts to revive talks could trigger sharp, volatile moves in oil, forex, and equity markets.
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🛢 Brent Crude: Geopolitics vs. Fundamentals
Amid the exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, Trump announced the termination of the truce. Against this backdrop, oil prices surged to $78 per barrel, as the threat to the security of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz pushes quotes sharply higher.
🎯 Extreme volatility is expected in the coming days. 🔺 In the event of new incidents in the Persian Gulf, panic buying could quickly push prices to test the $80.00–$82.00 range.
Currently, the RSI is in overbought territory, so we might see a short-term correction.
🔥 Keep a close eye on the news — oil trading right now is purely news-driven!
Amid the exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, Trump announced the termination of the truce. Against this backdrop, oil prices surged to $78 per barrel, as the threat to the security of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz pushes quotes sharply higher.
🎯 Extreme volatility is expected in the coming days. 🔺 In the event of new incidents in the Persian Gulf, panic buying could quickly push prices to test the $80.00–$82.00 range.
Currently, the RSI is in overbought territory, so we might see a short-term correction.
🔥 Keep a close eye on the news — oil trading right now is purely news-driven!
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Good afternoon, dear traders!
🌍 Geopolitics continues to completely dictate market sentiment. Following a second wave of US strikes on targets in Iran, President Donald Trump announced that the truce is effectively over. In response, Tehran attacked US facilities in the region once again, causing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz to escalate sharply. 💥
🛢 Brent crude jumped above $78 per barrel. The primary driver is the suspension of tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz and mounting fears of supply disruptions. The geopolitical risk premium is now almost fully priced back into quotes, and until the situation stabilizes, volatility in the oil market will remain exceptionally high.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding near 100.9. Despite the massive escalation, investors continue to utilize the greenback as their primary safe-haven asset. As long as the index remains above key levels, pressure on major currency pairs will persist.
⚠️ Today, the markets will be hyper-sensitive to any breaking news from the Middle East. Any statements from either the US or Iran have the potential to trigger sharp, volatile moves across oil, the dollar, gold, and stock indices.
🌍 Geopolitics continues to completely dictate market sentiment. Following a second wave of US strikes on targets in Iran, President Donald Trump announced that the truce is effectively over. In response, Tehran attacked US facilities in the region once again, causing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz to escalate sharply. 💥
🛢 Brent crude jumped above $78 per barrel. The primary driver is the suspension of tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz and mounting fears of supply disruptions. The geopolitical risk premium is now almost fully priced back into quotes, and until the situation stabilizes, volatility in the oil market will remain exceptionally high.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding near 100.9. Despite the massive escalation, investors continue to utilize the greenback as their primary safe-haven asset. As long as the index remains above key levels, pressure on major currency pairs will persist.
⚠️ Today, the markets will be hyper-sensitive to any breaking news from the Middle East. Any statements from either the US or Iran have the potential to trigger sharp, volatile moves across oil, the dollar, gold, and stock indices.
#EURUSD
Despite the ongoing strength of the US Dollar Index, the EURUSD pair continues to hold ground near 1.14400, signaling solid demand for the Euro at current levels.
⚠️ Today, key market focus will be directed toward the US Initial Jobless Claims data.
If the reading comes in 5k–8k above forecast or sits below the previous value, it will serve as a positive catalyst for the USD.
Conversely, if claims unexpectedly surge by 30k–40k relative to expectations, the greenback could come under severe pressure, giving the pair a clear path to continue its rally toward the 1.14800 region.
📉 Trading Plan:
I will consider a breakout below the 1.14260 level as a direct signal to open Short (Sell) positions.
Target Levels: 1.14144 → 1.13961
Despite the ongoing strength of the US Dollar Index, the EURUSD pair continues to hold ground near 1.14400, signaling solid demand for the Euro at current levels.
If the reading comes in 5k–8k above forecast or sits below the previous value, it will serve as a positive catalyst for the USD.
Conversely, if claims unexpectedly surge by 30k–40k relative to expectations, the greenback could come under severe pressure, giving the pair a clear path to continue its rally toward the 1.14800 region.
📉 Trading Plan:
I will consider a breakout below the 1.14260 level as a direct signal to open Short (Sell) positions.
Target Levels: 1.14144 → 1.13961
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#SP500 The main U.S. market index is in a consolidation phase following an impressive rally at the beginning of the year, as traders assess the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate changes and the impact of geopolitics.
👉 The key driver for the index will be the H1 2026 earnings season, which kicks off next week. Based on the results of the largest companies in the index, target forecasts will be revised.
🔥 Technically, according to the RSI, the index is trading in the neutral zone. A triangle pattern is forming on the 1D timeframe, which, upon breaking its boundary, will provide strong momentum to the price movement—though the breakout direction could go either way!
👉 The key driver for the index will be the H1 2026 earnings season, which kicks off next week. Based on the results of the largest companies in the index, target forecasts will be revised.
🔥 Technically, according to the RSI, the index is trading in the neutral zone. A triangle pattern is forming on the 1D timeframe, which, upon breaking its boundary, will provide strong momentum to the price movement—though the breakout direction could go either way!
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Good morning, dear traders! 📊
🌍 Markets remain heavily focused on geopolitics and the oil sector. Fresh risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have once again amplified investor anxieties regarding potential supply disruptions. 💥
🛢 Brent crude has climbed above $76 per barrel. The geopolitical risk premium is steadily returning to quotes, and any breaking news from the Middle East could trigger sharp, impulsive movements. As long as tensions persist, the market will continue to price in elevated risks to global oil supplies.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding steady near key levels. Despite minor fluctuations, demand for the greenback remains supported by cautious investor sentiment and ongoing uncertainty across global financial markets.
🍫☕ Special Attention: Cocoa and Coffee Markets. Analysts are warning that the developing El Niño phenomenon could become one of the strongest seen in decades. Arid weather conditions in West Africa are severely threatening the upcoming cocoa harvest, and these weather-related risks are poised to disrupt the coffee market as well. Against this backdrop, high volatility is expected to persist, prompting the ICE exchange to already raise margin requirements for contracts on these soft commodities. 📈
⚠️ Today, the primary market drivers remain geopolitics, oil dynamics, and overall investor sentiment. As long as the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, we can expect elevated fluctuations across commodity, forex, and equity markets.
🌍 Markets remain heavily focused on geopolitics and the oil sector. Fresh risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have once again amplified investor anxieties regarding potential supply disruptions. 💥
🛢 Brent crude has climbed above $76 per barrel. The geopolitical risk premium is steadily returning to quotes, and any breaking news from the Middle East could trigger sharp, impulsive movements. As long as tensions persist, the market will continue to price in elevated risks to global oil supplies.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding steady near key levels. Despite minor fluctuations, demand for the greenback remains supported by cautious investor sentiment and ongoing uncertainty across global financial markets.
🍫☕ Special Attention: Cocoa and Coffee Markets. Analysts are warning that the developing El Niño phenomenon could become one of the strongest seen in decades. Arid weather conditions in West Africa are severely threatening the upcoming cocoa harvest, and these weather-related risks are poised to disrupt the coffee market as well. Against this backdrop, high volatility is expected to persist, prompting the ICE exchange to already raise margin requirements for contracts on these soft commodities. 📈
⚠️ Today, the primary market drivers remain geopolitics, oil dynamics, and overall investor sentiment. As long as the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, we can expect elevated fluctuations across commodity, forex, and equity markets.
🛢 #Brent Oil is consolidating in the $75 - $77 range. Ahead of the weekend, traders will be closing positions, while the overall tension with Iran persists, keeping prices from falling.
👉 For today, the average price forecast from analysts is around $80 per barrel, but this may change if the geopolitical situation shifts.
🔥 Trading in these conditions is optimally done from the levels: the nearest support is 75.35, and resistance is 76.70. On a breakout, positions can be opened with targets at 73 / 79, respectively.
👉 For today, the average price forecast from analysts is around $80 per barrel, but this may change if the geopolitical situation shifts.
🔥 Trading in these conditions is optimally done from the levels: the nearest support is 75.35, and resistance is 76.70. On a breakout, positions can be opened with targets at 73 / 79, respectively.
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Good morning, dear traders! ☀️
The week begins with a fresh wave of geopolitical tensions. The exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran over the weekend has once again heightened concerns about the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.
🛢 Brent crude remains above $77 per barrel. The market is once again pricing in a geopolitical risk premium amid fears of disruptions to oil exports. As long as tensions in the Middle East persist, volatility in the oil market is likely to remain elevated.
🪙 Bitcoin has come under renewed pressure, falling below $63,000. Investors are moving away from speculative assets as uncertainty increases, while continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are adding further downside pressure. As long as institutional demand remains weak, it will be difficult for the crypto market to establish a sustained uptrend.
🥇 Gold is also declining despite heightened geopolitical risks. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, while markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive monetary policy. Higher interest rates continue to support the U.S. dollar and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
💵 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong as demand for safe-haven assets stays elevated. The key event this week will be the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy moves and set the direction for the dollar, gold, and global equity markets.
⚠️ The market's primary drivers at the moment are the combination of geopolitical developments and expectations surrounding U.S. inflation. These factors are likely to determine the performance of oil, the U.S. dollar, gold, and other risk assets in the days ahead.
The week begins with a fresh wave of geopolitical tensions. The exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran over the weekend has once again heightened concerns about the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.
🛢 Brent crude remains above $77 per barrel. The market is once again pricing in a geopolitical risk premium amid fears of disruptions to oil exports. As long as tensions in the Middle East persist, volatility in the oil market is likely to remain elevated.
🪙 Bitcoin has come under renewed pressure, falling below $63,000. Investors are moving away from speculative assets as uncertainty increases, while continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are adding further downside pressure. As long as institutional demand remains weak, it will be difficult for the crypto market to establish a sustained uptrend.
🥇 Gold is also declining despite heightened geopolitical risks. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, while markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive monetary policy. Higher interest rates continue to support the U.S. dollar and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
💵 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong as demand for safe-haven assets stays elevated. The key event this week will be the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy moves and set the direction for the dollar, gold, and global equity markets.
⚠️ The market's primary drivers at the moment are the combination of geopolitical developments and expectations surrounding U.S. inflation. These factors are likely to determine the performance of oil, the U.S. dollar, gold, and other risk assets in the days ahead.
🛢 #Brent Brent crude oil prices are surging towards $80 per barrel amid a massive strike on Iran and their subsequent response.
👉 At the moment, the conflict continues to escalate, which threatens a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a new rally in oil prices. Statements from US and Iranian leaders at the beginning of the week will determine the near-term trend and trader sentiment.
🔥 Technically, we expect a test of the $80 level; if it breaks out and consolidates above it, the path to $85 opens up. We are not considering short positions (selling) in the current situation.
👉 At the moment, the conflict continues to escalate, which threatens a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a new rally in oil prices. Statements from US and Iranian leaders at the beginning of the week will determine the near-term trend and trader sentiment.
🔥 Technically, we expect a test of the $80 level; if it breaks out and consolidates above it, the path to $85 opens up. We are not considering short positions (selling) in the current situation.
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