The CAD/USD opens at 1.3845 (0.7223). The pair remains trapped between two forces: a stronger Canadian dollar supported by surging oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar driven by rising yields and inflation concerns.
Oil has jumped nearly 7% as tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran following the collapse of nuclear talks. Fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz are driving crude higher, benefiting Canada as a major oil exporter to the U.S. However, rising energy prices are also fueling inflation concerns, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer.
U.S. Treasury yields have climbed, lending support to the USD, while risk sentiment remains fragile. Markets are also monitoring potential jet-fuel shortages in Europe within three weeks if Hormuz flows remain restricted, adding pressure to global supply chains and inflation risks. The USD/CAD remains stable as investors weigh energy-driven CAD strength against hawkish Fed expectations.
Oil has jumped nearly 7% as tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran following the collapse of nuclear talks. Fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz are driving crude higher, benefiting Canada as a major oil exporter to the U.S. However, rising energy prices are also fueling inflation concerns, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer.
U.S. Treasury yields have climbed, lending support to the USD, while risk sentiment remains fragile. Markets are also monitoring potential jet-fuel shortages in Europe within three weeks if Hormuz flows remain restricted, adding pressure to global supply chains and inflation risks. The USD/CAD remains stable as investors weigh energy-driven CAD strength against hawkish Fed expectations.
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3741 (0.7278). The USD weakened as markets dialed back hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, supported by easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which pressured oil prices. At the same time, Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority, giving his Liberal government 172 seats and strengthening its ability to advance policy in a complex global environment.
Geopolitics remain central, with the US and Iran considering further ceasefire talks, while disruptions in oil supply continue to influence markets. Softer energy prices have eased yields and weighed on the USD, supporting broader risk sentiment. Equity markets in the US moved higher, while Europe and Asia stayed cautious. Meanwhile, commodities showed mixed signals, with oil declining, copper rising, and gold holding steady.
Geopolitics remain central, with the US and Iran considering further ceasefire talks, while disruptions in oil supply continue to influence markets. Softer energy prices have eased yields and weighed on the USD, supporting broader risk sentiment. Equity markets in the US moved higher, while Europe and Asia stayed cautious. Meanwhile, commodities showed mixed signals, with oil declining, copper rising, and gold holding steady.
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3776 (0.7259).
Markets are focused on energy prices and inflation as US–Iran tensions evolve. A second round of talks is expected, with possible easing of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz putting pressure on oil prices. However, the earlier surge in energy continues to shape central bank expectations.
Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned higher energy costs may delay rate cuts, while ECB President Christine Lagarde noted inflation risks remain elevated. In Japan, officials may raise inflation forecasts.
US producer prices rose 0.5% m/m in March, below expectations, but energy-driven inflation persists. The IMF cut global growth forecasts due to Middle East tensions.
Markets turned risk-on: equities stay firm, yields ease, and the US dollar weakens, while oil pulls back and gold tests resistance.
Markets are focused on energy prices and inflation as US–Iran tensions evolve. A second round of talks is expected, with possible easing of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz putting pressure on oil prices. However, the earlier surge in energy continues to shape central bank expectations.
Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned higher energy costs may delay rate cuts, while ECB President Christine Lagarde noted inflation risks remain elevated. In Japan, officials may raise inflation forecasts.
US producer prices rose 0.5% m/m in March, below expectations, but energy-driven inflation persists. The IMF cut global growth forecasts due to Middle East tensions.
Markets turned risk-on: equities stay firm, yields ease, and the US dollar weakens, while oil pulls back and gold tests resistance.
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3730 (0.7283). Markets remain focused on ongoing US–Iran negotiations, as a potential ceasefire extension is weighed while the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively blocked by a US naval presence. Iran has warned of possible retaliation, keeping oil risks elevated and uncertainty high. At the same time, US businesses are scaling back hiring and spending amid geopolitical tensions, according to the Fed’s Beige Book. Political pressure is also building around the Federal Reserve, adding another layer of uncertainty. Globally, central banks remain cautious, with the BoE and ECB signaling no urgency to adjust rates. Despite this, equities show mixed performance, digital assets maintain a risk-on tone, and USD weakness continues across major pairs.
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3673 (0.7314).
The US Dollar continues to weaken against the Canadian Dollar, hitting three-week lows near 1.3670 and heading for a 1.3% weekly decline. Optimism around potential US–Iran peace talks is reducing demand for the safe-haven USD.
Markets are focusing on positive signals from Trump, including a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel and comments suggesting a broader deal with Iran is close.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping oil prices about 35% above pre-war levels. The Bank of Canada warned that higher energy costs could push inflation up while increasing recession risks.
Attention now turns to Canada’s CPI data on Monday, which may confirm rising inflation pressures and raise concerns about stagflation.
The US Dollar continues to weaken against the Canadian Dollar, hitting three-week lows near 1.3670 and heading for a 1.3% weekly decline. Optimism around potential US–Iran peace talks is reducing demand for the safe-haven USD.
Markets are focusing on positive signals from Trump, including a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel and comments suggesting a broader deal with Iran is close.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping oil prices about 35% above pre-war levels. The Bank of Canada warned that higher energy costs could push inflation up while increasing recession risks.
Attention now turns to Canada’s CPI data on Monday, which may confirm rising inflation pressures and raise concerns about stagflation.
CAD/USD: 1.3691 (0.7304)
Canada kicks off the day with March's Consumer Price Index a critical read on how rising energy costs are hitting household budgets. CPI is expected to jump 1.1% monthly, more than double February's 0.5%, with annual inflation rising to 2.5% from 1.8% above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The central bank held rates at 2.25% in March but flagged energy volatility as a growing risk.
Tensions in the Gulf of Oman are deepening the global energy shock as shipping routes face disruption. Fed officials may pause rate moves if energy-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs data. Meanwhile, half of UK business leaders now expect net job losses from AI, up from a third just two years ago.
On the markets, US and European equities pushed higher while Asia ended mixed. The US dollar strengthened as oil rebounded, weighing on the yen. Treasury yields climbed alongside crude, while gold and silver slipped. Bitcoin held steady as Ethereum softened.
Canada kicks off the day with March's Consumer Price Index a critical read on how rising energy costs are hitting household budgets. CPI is expected to jump 1.1% monthly, more than double February's 0.5%, with annual inflation rising to 2.5% from 1.8% above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The central bank held rates at 2.25% in March but flagged energy volatility as a growing risk.
Tensions in the Gulf of Oman are deepening the global energy shock as shipping routes face disruption. Fed officials may pause rate moves if energy-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs data. Meanwhile, half of UK business leaders now expect net job losses from AI, up from a third just two years ago.
On the markets, US and European equities pushed higher while Asia ended mixed. The US dollar strengthened as oil rebounded, weighing on the yen. Treasury yields climbed alongside crude, while gold and silver slipped. Bitcoin held steady as Ethereum softened.
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3657 (0.7322).
USD/CAD maintains a bearish short-term bias, trading below the 100-day EMA and the Bollinger mid-band. Price is hovering just above support at 1.3638, while RSI near 35 signals weak but not yet oversold momentum.
A break below 1.3638 could extend losses toward March lows under 1.3550. On the upside, resistance stands at 1.3770 (100-day EMA), followed by 1.3822. A move above these levels would be needed to reduce downside pressure.
Markets are focused on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who testifies today, with attention on Fed independence and rate policy. Meanwhile, renewed US–Iran talks and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions continue to influence oil prices and sentiment.
Canada’s inflation rose to 2.4%, driven by energy, while New Zealand’s hotter CPI boosted rate hike expectations. Germany’s producer prices showed mixed signals.
Overall, equities are mixed, yields steady, USD slightly firmer, and commodities easing ahead of geopolitical developments.
USD/CAD maintains a bearish short-term bias, trading below the 100-day EMA and the Bollinger mid-band. Price is hovering just above support at 1.3638, while RSI near 35 signals weak but not yet oversold momentum.
A break below 1.3638 could extend losses toward March lows under 1.3550. On the upside, resistance stands at 1.3770 (100-day EMA), followed by 1.3822. A move above these levels would be needed to reduce downside pressure.
Markets are focused on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who testifies today, with attention on Fed independence and rate policy. Meanwhile, renewed US–Iran talks and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions continue to influence oil prices and sentiment.
Canada’s inflation rose to 2.4%, driven by energy, while New Zealand’s hotter CPI boosted rate hike expectations. Germany’s producer prices showed mixed signals.
Overall, equities are mixed, yields steady, USD slightly firmer, and commodities easing ahead of geopolitical developments.