The CAD/USD opens at 1.3782 (0.7256). BoC policymakers noted that US tariff impacts on inflation remain modest but are starting to show in data. Fresh July–August CPI will guide the Sept. 17 rate decision. Falling crude prices could weigh on the CAD, as Canada’s oil exports to the US link Loonie strength to energy markets.
Trump vowed “very severe consequences” if putin refuses a Ukraine ceasefire ahead of their Alaska meeting. US Treasury Sec. Bessent suggested the Fed rate should be 1.5% lower, hinted at 10–11 possible Powell successors, and expects Japan to hike rates, boosting the yen. He also confirmed upcoming US–China trade talks after a 90-day tariff truce extension.
Markets: US/Europe equities gain, VIX near lows, Bitcoin above $124k, yields ease in US/EU, crude steady, silver outperforms gold.
Trump vowed “very severe consequences” if putin refuses a Ukraine ceasefire ahead of their Alaska meeting. US Treasury Sec. Bessent suggested the Fed rate should be 1.5% lower, hinted at 10–11 possible Powell successors, and expects Japan to hike rates, boosting the yen. He also confirmed upcoming US–China trade talks after a 90-day tariff truce extension.
Markets: US/Europe equities gain, VIX near lows, Bitcoin above $124k, yields ease in US/EU, crude steady, silver outperforms gold.
The CAD/USD opens at 1.3793 (0.7250). USD/CAD’s pullback from the low 1.38s looks like a minor consolidation, with resistance at 1.3800/20 and support at 1.3740/50 and 1.3720.
Core and headline US PPI jumped 0.9% m/m vs. 0.2% forecast, driven largely by final demand services. Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% QoQ in Q2, beating estimates on strong consumption and business investment. Putin praised US efforts to end the Ukraine conflict and hinted at a new arms control treaty, while Trump called the Alaska summit “exploratory” with a 25% success chance. China’s July data disappointed as output slowed, retail sales growth hit a 2025 low, and investment cooled amid property sector weakness.
Markets: S&P and UK at records; VIX near 15; US yields rebound; BTC, ETH dip; agriculture strong while energy and metals weaken.
Core and headline US PPI jumped 0.9% m/m vs. 0.2% forecast, driven largely by final demand services. Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% QoQ in Q2, beating estimates on strong consumption and business investment. Putin praised US efforts to end the Ukraine conflict and hinted at a new arms control treaty, while Trump called the Alaska summit “exploratory” with a 25% success chance. China’s July data disappointed as output slowed, retail sales growth hit a 2025 low, and investment cooled amid property sector weakness.
Markets: S&P and UK at records; VIX near 15; US yields rebound; BTC, ETH dip; agriculture strong while energy and metals weaken.
🚨 Markets on Edge: Trump-putin Talks Fail, Fed & CPI in Focus
📊 USD/CAD opens at 1.3795 (0.7249)
The weekend Trump-putin meeting in Alaska ended with no breakthrough. Trump hinted Zelenskiy could end the war quickly, with new talks set today alongside EU leaders. This keeps crude oil near 2-month lows and supports the USD against CAD.
🇨🇦 Markets now eye Canada’s inflation data (Tue), the FOMC Minutes (Wed), and Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (Thu) for fresh clues on rate cuts.
📉 Market snapshot
Equities: U.S. mixed, Europe steady
Commodities: Oil pressured, raw materials flat
Crypto: BTC $115.7k (-2.1%), ETH $4.3k (-3.3%)
U.S. retail sales: +0.5% in July
Industrial production: -0.1%
⚡ Key theme: Caution dominates as geopolitics & central banks drive volatility this week.
📊 USD/CAD opens at 1.3795 (0.7249)
The weekend Trump-putin meeting in Alaska ended with no breakthrough. Trump hinted Zelenskiy could end the war quickly, with new talks set today alongside EU leaders. This keeps crude oil near 2-month lows and supports the USD against CAD.
🇨🇦 Markets now eye Canada’s inflation data (Tue), the FOMC Minutes (Wed), and Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (Thu) for fresh clues on rate cuts.
📉 Market snapshot
Equities: U.S. mixed, Europe steady
Commodities: Oil pressured, raw materials flat
Crypto: BTC $115.7k (-2.1%), ETH $4.3k (-3.3%)
U.S. retail sales: +0.5% in July
Industrial production: -0.1%
⚡ Key theme: Caution dominates as geopolitics & central banks drive volatility this week.
The CAD/USD opens at 1.3806 (0.7243). The Loonie gave up all intraday gains Monday as the USD staged a modest recovery, with traders cautious ahead of Canada’s July CPI release this morning, which may guide the Bank of Canada’s next move.
At the global level, markets are eyeing the Jackson Hole Symposium kicking off Thursday, where Fed Chair Powell is expected to outline a new policy framework. Meanwhile, reports suggest the Trump administration may take a 10% stake in Intel by converting $10.9B in CHIPS Act grants into equity. In housing, the US index slipped to 32 in August from 33, below forecasts, with softer sales and modestly lower builder price cuts. Trump also urged putin to accept a trilateral peace meeting with Zelenskiy.
Elsewhere: Wall Street flat, Europe steady, Asia mixed; VIX near 15; Bitcoin at $116,290 (−1%), Ethereum $4,310 (−3.6%); FX and commodities trade in tight ranges.
At the global level, markets are eyeing the Jackson Hole Symposium kicking off Thursday, where Fed Chair Powell is expected to outline a new policy framework. Meanwhile, reports suggest the Trump administration may take a 10% stake in Intel by converting $10.9B in CHIPS Act grants into equity. In housing, the US index slipped to 32 in August from 33, below forecasts, with softer sales and modestly lower builder price cuts. Trump also urged putin to accept a trilateral peace meeting with Zelenskiy.
Elsewhere: Wall Street flat, Europe steady, Asia mixed; VIX near 15; Bitcoin at $116,290 (−1%), Ethereum $4,310 (−3.6%); FX and commodities trade in tight ranges.
The CAD/USD opens at 1.3872 (0.7209). The USD and JPY led the FX board on risk aversion, while smaller G10 currencies, including the CAD, weakened. A soft CPI dragged the loonie, with USDCAD spiking above 1.3882, its highest since May. AUDUSD slipped under 0.6550, nearing its August low of 0.6419.
Canada’s CPI slowed to 1.7% YoY in July, below forecast and the BoC’s 2% target for the fourth month. Gasoline fell 16.1%, offset by food (+3.3%) and shelter (+3%). Core trimmed mean held at 3.0%. UK CPI printed hotter at 3.8% YoY, while NZ’s RBNZ cut rates 25 bps to 3.00% with a divided vote and dovish guidance.
In the US, housing starts rose to 1.428M, the fastest pace in 5 months, though permits slipped to 1.354M. Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to JPY 117.6B, but exports fell 2.6% on US tariffs.
Equities softened ahead of Jackson Hole, VIX at 15.6, BTC $112,778 (−3.0%), ETH $4,074 (−5.6%). Commodities mixed; coffee higher. Key watch: US 20Y auction, FOMC Minutes.
Canada’s CPI slowed to 1.7% YoY in July, below forecast and the BoC’s 2% target for the fourth month. Gasoline fell 16.1%, offset by food (+3.3%) and shelter (+3%). Core trimmed mean held at 3.0%. UK CPI printed hotter at 3.8% YoY, while NZ’s RBNZ cut rates 25 bps to 3.00% with a divided vote and dovish guidance.
In the US, housing starts rose to 1.428M, the fastest pace in 5 months, though permits slipped to 1.354M. Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to JPY 117.6B, but exports fell 2.6% on US tariffs.
Equities softened ahead of Jackson Hole, VIX at 15.6, BTC $112,778 (−3.0%), ETH $4,074 (−5.6%). Commodities mixed; coffee higher. Key watch: US 20Y auction, FOMC Minutes.
The CAD/USD opens at 1.3887 (0.7200). FX markets are quiet as traders await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for clues on rate cuts. The USD is narrowly mixed, edging lower versus the EUR and GBP, leaving the Dollar Index softer and vulnerable.
Fed July minutes showed most officials favoured holding rates, prioritizing inflation risks as tariffs fuel division. Fed Governor Lisa Cook vowed to stay on despite Trump’s criticism over mortgage fraud allegations.
Australia’s PMI jumped to 52.9 in August, its fastest expansion in three years, while Eurozone inflation held steady at 2% in July, above expectations.
Key markets: U.S. equities slipped on tech, Europe mixed, UK at record highs. VIX at 15.69, options imply a 1% SPX move. BTC $114,280 (+1.3%), ETH $4,335 (+6.4%). Crude firmer on U.S. stockpile drop. Sterling weaker, JPY rebound eases.
Fed July minutes showed most officials favoured holding rates, prioritizing inflation risks as tariffs fuel division. Fed Governor Lisa Cook vowed to stay on despite Trump’s criticism over mortgage fraud allegations.
Australia’s PMI jumped to 52.9 in August, its fastest expansion in three years, while Eurozone inflation held steady at 2% in July, above expectations.
Key markets: U.S. equities slipped on tech, Europe mixed, UK at record highs. VIX at 15.69, options imply a 1% SPX move. BTC $114,280 (+1.3%), ETH $4,335 (+6.4%). Crude firmer on U.S. stockpile drop. Sterling weaker, JPY rebound eases.