(#) While the world is glued to the fascinating developments along the Rostov-Moscow axis, the Russian army hit civilian buildings in Kyiv yesterday, killing a young couple, Julia and Daniel. In words of Julia herself - "you don't need to be Ukrainian to stay human." The only reason to watch what is going in Russia is to watch for the Putin's end as soon as possible. via @maria_avdv
(#) One part of the June 2023 Mutiny - the eventual settlement instead of a clash - is well-explained by @cblatts, the author of "Why We Fight".
Chris Blattman: The number one thing we know about war and violence is that most of the time it doesn’t happen. Fighting is so ruinous that enemies prefer compromise to conflict. Most of the time that is easy to miss. But not the last 24 hours. What happened is normal. It happens every day.
Chris Blattman: The number one thing we know about war and violence is that most of the time it doesn’t happen. Fighting is so ruinous that enemies prefer compromise to conflict. Most of the time that is easy to miss. But not the last 24 hours. What happened is normal. It happens every day.
(#) A new address by Putin is coming in a few minutes, live from Kremlin. But don't worry - the only thing of any relevance that Putin can possibly say is that he steps down. And of course he wouldn't.
(#) A great take on the Prigozhin's mutiny by @mashagessen in The New Yorker: newyorker.com/news/our-colum…. Quite frankly, with all media/expert attention on Russia, there is a lot of prescient and insightful pieces of analysis of this episode, but Masha's is exceptionally good one.
The New Yorker
Prigozhin Showed Russians That They Might Have a Choice
This weekend, the country saw someone other than Putin act politically and—even more important—wield force.
(#) Wonkish, from an economic theorist from @uchicago. If I fly to Russia today, I will be immediately arrested for a few posts on my Facebook last year. However, if I try to dispose Putin and kill some border guards in the airport, then my criminal case will be closed and I will be clear to go abroad clean of any accusations. Back to economic theory and Chicago - isn't punishment supposed to be monotonic in the severity of the crime?
(#) One underappreciated result of the Prigozhin mutiny is what Wagner brings to Belarus, where it relocates per agreement negotiated by Lukashenko. Now, the Belarus dictator has a protection against @belwarriors, the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, a Belarus unit in the Ukrainian army.
(#) Again, strong July 20, 1944 vibes: https://t.co/FE6neezxRn. Field marshal von Kluge, a fine Hitler's generals, has vacillated as the coup, which eventually failed, progressed - and had to commit suicide in the aftermath. But I wouldn't bet on Surovikin's suicide - Putin's is not strong enough to do a mass purge of the army as Hitler did, and clearly there were a lot of support for the Prigozhin's uprising both in the army and around Putin.
NY Times
Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.
(#) My another piece on the Prigozhin mutiny: novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/…. This time for @novayagazeta_en.
Novaya Gazeta Europe
The failed Wagner coup shows Russia’s elites are ready for violent regime change
An outsider’s initial reaction to the events of 23-24 June would have been something along the lines of: what was that all about? Was it a military coup attempt? Was it a mutiny? Was it all staged?
(#) I bring bad luck to media - or maybe I am just one of those who stay until the end? Russian authorities declared @novayagazeta_en "an undesirable organization" today. My column appeared there on the same day. Last year, my post was on the Echo Moskvy front web-page on the day when it was closed down. I was interviewed live on @tvrain on their last day in Russia. A year before that, my last column in Vedomosti triggered a chain of events that destroyed the newspaper.
Of course, in each case, my column or post or interview was not a real cause. Still, I feel like an angel of death of sorts. The good thing is of course that @novayagazeta_en will not close down - the designation as "undesirable" by the Putin's henchmen just mean that the colleagues are doing the excellent journalistic job.
Of course, in each case, my column or post or interview was not a real cause. Still, I feel like an angel of death of sorts. The good thing is of course that @novayagazeta_en will not close down - the designation as "undesirable" by the Putin's henchmen just mean that the colleagues are doing the excellent journalistic job.
(#) Oleksandra Matviichuk: Two 14-year-old twin sisters, Anna and Yulia Aksenchenko, were among those who died in the cafe after being hit by a Russian rocket. Now their mother is looking for wedding dresses to bury her daughters. But there are none in Kramatorsk; no salon is open. Solid pain.
(#) I am proud for my @novayagazeta_eu colleagues. We're not going anywhere.
Novaya Gazeta Europe: ‼️ We’re not going anywhere. We will continue to speak the truth about the war and the Kremlin’s dictatorship.
Novaya Gazeta Europe: ‼️ We’re not going anywhere. We will continue to speak the truth about the war and the Kremlin’s dictatorship.
(#) The brave @IlyaYashin turns 40 today. Ilya serves 7 years for telling the truth about the Russian atrocities in Bucha and his anti-war broadcasts. Ilya is a friend, and now we have a special bond as writing about his prosecution is one of my "crimes". Happy birthday, Ilya!
(#) I am surprised that even competent Russia-watchers use the word "purge" so easily. A dictator cannot do "a purge" without generals being executed or committing suicides. There've been no invisible purges, and there cannot be.
In Stalin purges of the military, dozens of marshals and generals were executed, hundreds beaten, tortured, and imprisoned in inhumane conditions. No one was offered to go in exile or sit comfortably in a luxury prison camera.
When Hitler purged the military after the failed July 1944 mutiny, he has dozens of commanders executed or forced to commit suicide, including those who like Field Marshal von Kluge or General Fromm were just vacillating on the coup day, and Field Marshal Rommel who was simply aware of the plot.
In Latin America, in contrast, spending some time in jail or in exile was a standard part of a general's biography. I expect Putin to do the same kind of "purges" he was doing since the beginning of the war. Surovikin detained and questioned, then put under something like an informal house arrest, with a possibility to re-appear at any moment. It's almost an abuse of the word "purge" to use it for measures like this.
In Stalin purges of the military, dozens of marshals and generals were executed, hundreds beaten, tortured, and imprisoned in inhumane conditions. No one was offered to go in exile or sit comfortably in a luxury prison camera.
When Hitler purged the military after the failed July 1944 mutiny, he has dozens of commanders executed or forced to commit suicide, including those who like Field Marshal von Kluge or General Fromm were just vacillating on the coup day, and Field Marshal Rommel who was simply aware of the plot.
In Latin America, in contrast, spending some time in jail or in exile was a standard part of a general's biography. I expect Putin to do the same kind of "purges" he was doing since the beginning of the war. Surovikin detained and questioned, then put under something like an informal house arrest, with a possibility to re-appear at any moment. It's almost an abuse of the word "purge" to use it for measures like this.
Twitter
I am surprised that even competent Russia-watchers use the word "purge" so easily. A dictator cannot do "a purge" without generals being executed or committing suicides. There've been no invisible purges, and there cannot be.
In Stalin purges of the military…
In Stalin purges of the military…
(#) One bad day for Putin and we already hear the voices of people concerned with "Russia being too weak". A-a-a, nuclear warheads in hands of competing gangs! I tried to summarize, in one simple picture, what is wrong and what is right about these fears.
(#) A great concluding essay by @yarotrof, and a great lesson to highlight.
Yaroslav Trofimov: “The huge lesson we have learned about Putin is that, when he’s put in a corner, he’s not a rat that lashes out, he negotiates. It’s not just the Russian military power that looks weak, Putin looks weak.” My @WSJ Review cover essay. wsj.com/articles/whats…
Yaroslav Trofimov: “The huge lesson we have learned about Putin is that, when he’s put in a corner, he’s not a rat that lashes out, he negotiates. It’s not just the Russian military power that looks weak, Putin looks weak.” My @WSJ Review cover essay. wsj.com/articles/whats…
WSJ
Essay | What’s Next for Russia
The Wagner rebellion that briefly sent tanks toward Moscow exposed damaging rifts within the regime, and the turmoil isn’t over. How a weakened Putin responds has huge stakes for Ukraine and the U.S.
Forwarded from Twitter Feeds Discussion
📣 Well, it looks to be over. 📣
Tonight, without any prior announcements, Twitter has disabled any access to tweets withot login. This means that the bot can't retrieve the data anymore, so I am shutting it down.
I'll keep the channels, but there will be no updates unless Twitter reverses its decision or I will find a way to bypass this limitation (which is unlikely).
It's very ironic and sad to see how two big platforms, Twitter and Reddit, go down the closure pass simultaneousely.
Thank you for staying here for all this time.
Tonight, without any prior announcements, Twitter has disabled any access to tweets withot login. This means that the bot can't retrieve the data anymore, so I am shutting it down.
I'll keep the channels, but there will be no updates unless Twitter reverses its decision or I will find a way to bypass this limitation (which is unlikely).
It's very ironic and sad to see how two big platforms, Twitter and Reddit, go down the closure pass simultaneousely.
Thank you for staying here for all this time.