USD/JPY Daily Forecast
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Corrective pattern from 116.34 is expected to extend with at least another falling leg. On the downside, break of 114.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 113.47. Break there will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.
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Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Corrective pattern from 116.34 is expected to extend with at least another falling leg. On the downside, break of 114.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 113.47. Break there will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.
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AUD/USD Daily Forecast
Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.
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Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.
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GBP/JPY Daily Forecast
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. Overall, further rise is still expected with 154.86 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 158.19 high will resume larger up trend to 167.93 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least.
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Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. Overall, further rise is still expected with 154.86 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 158.19 high will resume larger up trend to 167.93 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least.
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Fed Could Hike Rates At Least Three Times This Year: Reuters Poll
According to a Reuters poll, the Fed could introduce monetary tightening measures at a faster pace than originally planned in a bid to contain soaring inflation in the US, which has now gone on to become the biggest threat to the world’s most powerful economy in 2022. Economists expect the US Federal Reserve to announce three rate hikes through the year, with the first one coming up in March.
By the end of this year, interest rates could be anywhere between 0.75% and 1% from the record lows they are at currently. 40 out of 86 economists polled have also forecast the possibility of four rate hikes this year.
Although the daily caseload of COVID-19 infections continues to remain high, the severity of infections is not as high as during the previous waves. This has given governments and central banks more confidence about the economic outlook and could drive the Fed to reverse its dovish stance sooner.
Almost 75% of the poll’s respondents expect the Fed to start reducing its balance sheet which now stands at almost $9 trillion by the end of Q3 2022. In addition, 2023 could also see three rate hikes as the economic recovery picks up pace and the pandemic is brought under control.
The Fed’s key inflation gauge, core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) index is expected to rise from 4.7% in November to an average of 4.9% in Q1 2022. While the rate hikes can start bringing this index lower, inflation would remain well above the US central bank’s target of around 2% for around three years.
According to a Reuters poll, the Fed could introduce monetary tightening measures at a faster pace than originally planned in a bid to contain soaring inflation in the US, which has now gone on to become the biggest threat to the world’s most powerful economy in 2022. Economists expect the US Federal Reserve to announce three rate hikes through the year, with the first one coming up in March.
By the end of this year, interest rates could be anywhere between 0.75% and 1% from the record lows they are at currently. 40 out of 86 economists polled have also forecast the possibility of four rate hikes this year.
Although the daily caseload of COVID-19 infections continues to remain high, the severity of infections is not as high as during the previous waves. This has given governments and central banks more confidence about the economic outlook and could drive the Fed to reverse its dovish stance sooner.
Almost 75% of the poll’s respondents expect the Fed to start reducing its balance sheet which now stands at almost $9 trillion by the end of Q3 2022. In addition, 2023 could also see three rate hikes as the economic recovery picks up pace and the pandemic is brought under control.
The Fed’s key inflation gauge, core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) index is expected to rise from 4.7% in November to an average of 4.9% in Q1 2022. While the rate hikes can start bringing this index lower, inflation would remain well above the US central bank’s target of around 2% for around three years.
USD/CHF Daily Forecast
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9090 is extending. On the downside, firm break of 0.9084 support will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed. Fall from 0.9471 might be ready to resuming. Further decline would be seen back to 0.8925 support first. On the upside, above 0.9276 will target 0.9372 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.
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Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9090 is extending. On the downside, firm break of 0.9084 support will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed. Fall from 0.9471 might be ready to resuming. Further decline would be seen back to 0.8925 support first. On the upside, above 0.9276 will target 0.9372 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.
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USD/CAD Daily Forecast
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside at this point. As noted before, the whole pattern from 1.2005 might be finished three waves to 1.2963. Further fall would be seen to 1.2286 support, possibly further to retest 1.2005 low. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.2569 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.
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Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside at this point. As noted before, the whole pattern from 1.2005 might be finished three waves to 1.2963. Further fall would be seen to 1.2286 support, possibly further to retest 1.2005 low. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.2569 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.
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GBP/USD Daily Forecast
GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.3748 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, downside of retreat should be contained by 1.3489 support to bring another rally. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.4282 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3158, after hitting 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level. Above 1.3748 will target 1.3833 first. Sustained break of 1.3833 will pave the way back to retest 1.4248 high.
In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. The development suggests that up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.
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GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.3748 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, downside of retreat should be contained by 1.3489 support to bring another rally. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.4282 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3158, after hitting 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level. Above 1.3748 will target 1.3833 first. Sustained break of 1.3833 will pave the way back to retest 1.4248 high.
In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. The development suggests that up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.
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our Software finds in fully automated mode correlation between all available instruments with historically strong correlation. For example WTI and Brent, DE30 and F40. determines levels of correlation and automatically at the same time sells strong instruments and buys weak instruments when the correlation between them weakens or diverges beyond a pre-defined level. Once mean reversion (or by opposite signal -pre-defined ) takes place the locked position created by the two orders: buy and sell, must be generally be in profit.
Why this strategy consider as risk free? Because logically we buy the WTI (USOIL) and we sell The Brent (UKOIL) at the end it's OIL they raise up together and fall down together, so when we buy one and sell the other one it means that this total trades is 90% hedged. So there is no Loss. And using the statical levels for there historical correlation percentages software determines when this correlation is weak to buy one and sell the other one, because 100% correlation will back strong. Then the net will be in profit. Please don't hesitate to contact me if you didn't understand any point.
Why this strategy consider as risk free? Because logically we buy the WTI (USOIL) and we sell The Brent (UKOIL) at the end it's OIL they raise up together and fall down together, so when we buy one and sell the other one it means that this total trades is 90% hedged. So there is no Loss. And using the statical levels for there historical correlation percentages software determines when this correlation is weak to buy one and sell the other one, because 100% correlation will back strong. Then the net will be in profit. Please don't hesitate to contact me if you didn't understand any point.
Forex High Frequency Trading pinned «our Software finds in fully automated mode correlation between all available instruments with historically strong correlation. For example WTI and Brent, DE30 and F40. determines levels of correlation and automatically at the same time sells strong instruments…»
للاخوه العرب الاستراتجيه بالعربي : الاستراتجيه هي استراتجيه احصائيه تعتمد علي المنتجات الماليه التي لديها ترابط تاريخي قوي مثل البترول الامريكي والبترول البريطاني ومثل مؤشر الداكس الالماني ومؤشر اف الفرنسي ومثل الذهب والفضه ومثل مؤشر الداوجونز ومؤشر الناسداك. يقوم البرنامج بحساب الترابط بين الازواج التي لديها ترابط تاريخي قوي بشكل ألي وينتظر الي ان يحدث ضعف في هذا الترابط عند مستوي معين يقوم في نفس الوقت بشراء الاضعف وبيع الاقوي في نفس الوقت وبنفس الكميه لان الترابط بنسبة ١٠٠٪ سيقوم بالرجوع الي قوته مره اخري مما يعني ارتفاع صفقة الشراء وانخفاض صفقة الشراء ليعودو الي الترابط القوي والتحرك في نفس الاتجاه مره اخري مما ينتج عنه صافي ربح في مجمل الصفقتين. لماذا تعتبر المخاطره هنا معدومه؟ لانه عند القيام بشراء البترول الامريكي وبيع البترول البريطاني فهذه العمليه تعتبر هيدج بنسبة ٩٠٪ لان البترول الامريكي والبريطاني يسيران في نفس الاتجاه بنسبة ٩٨٪ لكن علي مدار تداولات اليوم ينخفض هذا الترابط الي ٧٠٪ مثلا ثم يعود مره اخري الي ٩٨٪.
Forex High Frequency Trading pinned «للاخوه العرب الاستراتجيه بالعربي : الاستراتجيه هي استراتجيه احصائيه تعتمد علي المنتجات الماليه التي لديها ترابط تاريخي قوي مثل البترول الامريكي والبترول البريطاني ومثل مؤشر الداكس الالماني ومؤشر اف الفرنسي ومثل الذهب والفضه ومثل مؤشر الداوجونز ومؤشر الناسداك.…»
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