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Could US sanctions over Hong Kong national security law worsen China’s US dollar shortage?

// US President Donald Trump’s recent threat to penalise China and Hong Kong for Beijing’s decision to impose a national security law on its special administrative region could mark the beginning of a process to cut off access to US dollars, analysts said.

//avoiding a full-blown financial war with China over Hong Kong would preserve the phase one trade deal

//One possible step that Washington could take would be to sanction individuals in China and Hong Kong deemed to have violated human rights under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that was passed in the US last year.

// Depending on the exact nature of the sanctions, this could force other international financial institutions to limit or even sever their relationships with these Chinese banks, cutting them off from much of the global US dollar market.

//the nation may be running short of US dollars, which is still the primary choice for international trade, investment and payments.

// That led to China recording a negative current account balance – the difference between current receipts from abroad and current payments overseas

Full Article: South China Morning Post, (08-June)

#NationalSecurityLaw #USDollar #Sanction #FinancialWar
#OpinionArticle #KongZhefeng

National Security Law may trigger a financial war, Hong Kong becomes an eye of the storm between China and the world

(11 Jun) The Chinese Communist Party intended to bypass the SAR government to legislate the "Hong Kong version of the National Security Law". This shocks the world and forces Western countries which are led by the United States to adjust policies related to Hong Kong. In the Hong Kong Report by the US Department of State Hong Kong and in the speeches by President Trump, they have declared that Hong Kong has lost its autonomy, and that “one country, two systems” has changed to “one country, one system”. The United States might cancel the preferential policy towards Hong Kong - which was based on the assumption that Hong Kong maintains a certain independence or self regulation.

//Hong Kong has always been an important window for China to obtain US dollars. Now that the United States has declared that Hong Kong has lost its autonomy, will the United States suspend Hong Kong’s supply of US dollars? Will it impose sanctions on banks in Hong Kong to stop them from exchanging US dollars, through the US controlled or dominated US dollar global trading system? Will this make Chinese companies that owe large amounts of US dollar foreign debt not able to repay their debs or even lead to bankrupt?

//the probability for the United States to impose a financial blockade on China by cutting off the supply and transactions of US dollars in Hong Kong is increasing.

//If the United States and the international community no longer distinguish between Hong Kong and mainland China in economy and trade, the current channel for capital to enter and leave China will no longer be unblocked.

China’s imposition of the National Security Law on Hong Kong is enough to scare away a lot of foreign capital, especially the US capital...although Singapore has no freedom and democracy, it has independent sovereignty and the rule of law applies in commercial cases.

On the contrary, in Hong Kong under the National Security Law, will the media dare to report accounting scandals of state-owned enterprises listed in Hong Kong? If the US capital and the state-owned enterprise go on a trail, will the court conduct a fair trial? Will China arrest the alleged US-funded employees on the grounds of national security? This kind of arrest of foreign company employees under the pretext of national security is not uncommon in mainland China. If this happens in Hong Kong where foreign capital is gathered, the consequences will be unbearable.

The special status of Hong Kong stems from the Hong Kong policy of the Western countries headed by the United States. It cannot be replaced by Beijing appointing a new financial center.


Full translation:
https://telegra.ph/National-Security-Law-may-trigger-a-financial-war-Hong-Kong-becomes-an-eye-of-the-storm-between-China-and-the-world-06-21

Source: Stand News

#NationalSecurityLaw #Sanction #FinancialCenter #RuleOfLaw #RMB #USDollar #ForeignInvestment #commercialdispute #FinancialWar