#Newspaper
Containing China Will Be Complicated
Expect Beijing to grow more assertive as the West rethinks its economic attachments after the coronavirus
//The Covid-19 pandemic has convinced many that the U.S. must fundamentally change its policy toward China ...the pandemic’s political and economic effects are bringing about a more assertive Chinese grand strategy...China has grown rich and strong with the West’s permission. China’s rise has been welcomed rather than balanced, let alone contained.
In the postpandemic world...
Beijing will now see a need for action to ensure continued economic growth, which underpins the Communist Party’s legitimacy and underwrites China’s bid for regional hegemony.
This is a consequential moment and China’s leaders have critical choices to make. History is replete with examples of rising powers that grew more aggressive after losing the ability to glide to dominance.
...The signs are ominous that China may choose a similar path (A newly unified.Germany in the early 20th century) today.
...The best way for an established power like the U.S. to meet a challenge from a rising, ambitious state like China is to demonstrate as quickly as possible the inadvisability of doing what Germany did.
...This means jettisoning the old policy of hoping growth and enmeshment will turn China into a country that plays by established rules. Rather, the U.S. should align with countries that share its interests in Asia, Europe and beyond.
...The U.S. must reduce its economic exposure to China by addressing the vulnerabilities that have accumulated in important U.S. industries, artificial intelligence and the defense supply chain. But America can’t go it alone.
...One is the development of a stronger force posture in the Western Pacific to dissuade Chinese aggression toward Taiwan or other U.S. allies. This requires a credible forward defense, as outlined in the National Defense Strategy, built on the ability of countries like Japan, Australia, Taiwan, India, and Vietnam to blunt any Chinese aggression.
...Ultimately, Europeans need to be able to handle more of their own defense—with abiding American support—while Washington turns its attention to the Pacific. An expanded commitment to free trade among free countries will make the turn away from China-heavy supply chains an easier adjustment and ensure the West remains competitive in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.
...Prioritizing the central threat posed by China means America’s postpandemic grand strategy will need to be attuned to opportunities for downshift or détente elsewhere. In the Middle East, an economy-of-force strategy should be implemented featuring a lighter, smaller and cheaper U.S. military footprint.
...The U.S. and its allies can’t protect their interests without confronting China. But confrontation will change Beijing’s incentives, making it more likely to assert itself sooner rather than later. Great-power competition may have lain dormant during the era of unfettered globalization, but the pandemic has brought it roaring back.
...The West must recognize that it will either pay now or pay later to contain China. Paying now is likely to produce a more tolerable bill.//
Source: The Wall Street Jounal, (07-May)
#China #Coronavirus #US #ChinaThreat #Foreignpolicy #InternationRelations
Containing China Will Be Complicated
Expect Beijing to grow more assertive as the West rethinks its economic attachments after the coronavirus
//The Covid-19 pandemic has convinced many that the U.S. must fundamentally change its policy toward China ...the pandemic’s political and economic effects are bringing about a more assertive Chinese grand strategy...China has grown rich and strong with the West’s permission. China’s rise has been welcomed rather than balanced, let alone contained.
In the postpandemic world...
Beijing will now see a need for action to ensure continued economic growth, which underpins the Communist Party’s legitimacy and underwrites China’s bid for regional hegemony.
This is a consequential moment and China’s leaders have critical choices to make. History is replete with examples of rising powers that grew more aggressive after losing the ability to glide to dominance.
...The signs are ominous that China may choose a similar path (A newly unified.Germany in the early 20th century) today.
...The best way for an established power like the U.S. to meet a challenge from a rising, ambitious state like China is to demonstrate as quickly as possible the inadvisability of doing what Germany did.
...This means jettisoning the old policy of hoping growth and enmeshment will turn China into a country that plays by established rules. Rather, the U.S. should align with countries that share its interests in Asia, Europe and beyond.
...The U.S. must reduce its economic exposure to China by addressing the vulnerabilities that have accumulated in important U.S. industries, artificial intelligence and the defense supply chain. But America can’t go it alone.
...One is the development of a stronger force posture in the Western Pacific to dissuade Chinese aggression toward Taiwan or other U.S. allies. This requires a credible forward defense, as outlined in the National Defense Strategy, built on the ability of countries like Japan, Australia, Taiwan, India, and Vietnam to blunt any Chinese aggression.
...Ultimately, Europeans need to be able to handle more of their own defense—with abiding American support—while Washington turns its attention to the Pacific. An expanded commitment to free trade among free countries will make the turn away from China-heavy supply chains an easier adjustment and ensure the West remains competitive in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.
...Prioritizing the central threat posed by China means America’s postpandemic grand strategy will need to be attuned to opportunities for downshift or détente elsewhere. In the Middle East, an economy-of-force strategy should be implemented featuring a lighter, smaller and cheaper U.S. military footprint.
...The U.S. and its allies can’t protect their interests without confronting China. But confrontation will change Beijing’s incentives, making it more likely to assert itself sooner rather than later. Great-power competition may have lain dormant during the era of unfettered globalization, but the pandemic has brought it roaring back.
...The West must recognize that it will either pay now or pay later to contain China. Paying now is likely to produce a more tolerable bill.//
Source: The Wall Street Jounal, (07-May)
#China #Coronavirus #US #ChinaThreat #Foreignpolicy #InternationRelations
WSJ
Opinion | Containing China Will Be Complicated
Expect Beijing to grow more assertive as the West rethinks its economic attachments after the coronavirus.