#PublicOpinionPoll #Anaylsis
Should Incumbent Lawmakers Serve in Extended Term Under Beijing's LegCo Arrangement?

HK Public Opinion Research Institute (#HKPORI) released two sets of survey results from online discussion groups and phone interviews, randomly sampled.

Q: The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress has extended the current LegCo term for no less than 1 year. Do you agree or disagree for incumbent lawmakers to serve in the extended term?

Survey results:
• Online opinion groups: Agree 35%；Disagree 47% Sampling threshold +/- 1%
• Random phone interview: Agree 37%；Disagree 41% Sampling threshold +/- 3%

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A few reflections are offered by CUHK lecturer and research Dr. Leung Kai-chi:

1. Methodology

Two sets of survey results were devised from different methodologies,
Since netizens and political figures were involved in mobilizing citizens to register and take part in this survey, this set of survey result can be used as a reference to those being politically influenced.

Interviews via phone calls (including landline and mobile) were randomly sampled, not being directly influenced by political opinion leaders. These set of survey result can be regarded as an overall reflection of the mass population in Hong Kong.


2. Beyond Methodology

Leading researcher of the survey, Dr Leung Kai-chi explained, “methodology cannot be a solution to all the problems as some are matters of value judgement.” For instance, should a lawmaker make a deciaion in accordance to HK people’s opinion or his potential supporters? In the same light, should legislators of Functional Constituencies only look into opinions of his/her constituency, disregarding the rest? Should there also be a middle-ground / alternative solution, or should lawmakers only follow a dominant opinion with an absolute majority support?

Dr Leung admitted that many disagreements may arise. He said “I do not have an answer to them. Hopefully, we can face these questions unruffled and in unity.”

Source: Dr Leung Kai-chi’s Facebook #Aug21
https://www.facebook.com/594642803906393/posts/3197828276921153/

#ProvisionalLegCo #Methodology #LeungKaiChi

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Further Reading:

#HKPORI Public opinion poll: a large majority of 76% Hong Kong citizens reject “Health Code” https://t.me/guardiansofhongkong/24410