#PublicOpinionPoll #Anaylsis
Should Incumbent Lawmakers Serve in Extended Term Under Beijing's LegCo Arrangement?

HK Public Opinion Research Institute (#HKPORI) released two sets of survey results from online discussion groups and phone interviews, randomly sampled.

Q: The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress has extended the current LegCo term for no less than 1 year. Do you agree or disagree for incumbent lawmakers to serve in the extended term?

Survey results:
• Online opinion groups: Agree 35%；Disagree 47% Sampling threshold +/- 1%
• Random phone interview: Agree 37%；Disagree 41% Sampling threshold +/- 3%

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A few reflections are offered by CUHK lecturer and research Dr. Leung Kai-chi:

1. Methodology

Two sets of survey results were devised from different methodologies,
Since netizens and political figures were involved in mobilizing citizens to register and take part in this survey, this set of survey result can be used as a reference to those being politically influenced.

Interviews via phone calls (including landline and mobile) were randomly sampled, not being directly influenced by political opinion leaders. These set of survey result can be regarded as an overall reflection of the mass population in Hong Kong.


2. Beyond Methodology

Leading researcher of the survey, Dr Leung Kai-chi explained, “methodology cannot be a solution to all the problems as some are matters of value judgement.” For instance, should a lawmaker make a deciaion in accordance to HK people’s opinion or his potential supporters? In the same light, should legislators of Functional Constituencies only look into opinions of his/her constituency, disregarding the rest? Should there also be a middle-ground / alternative solution, or should lawmakers only follow a dominant opinion with an absolute majority support?

Dr Leung admitted that many disagreements may arise. He said “I do not have an answer to them. Hopefully, we can face these questions unruffled and in unity.”

Source: Dr Leung Kai-chi’s Facebook #Aug21
https://www.facebook.com/594642803906393/posts/3197828276921153/

#ProvisionalLegCo #Methodology #LeungKaiChi

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Further Reading:

#HKPORI Public opinion poll: a large majority of 76% Hong Kong citizens reject “Health Code” https://t.me/guardiansofhongkong/24410

#ProvisionalCouncil
15 Pro-Dem Legislators' Stay in #LegCo to be Decided by Public Opinion Poll

The pro-democracy legislators' decision of whether or not to stay in the Legislative Council for the next year has been up to debate, after the Carrie Lam adminstration postponed the Legislative Election by a year.

15 pro-democracy legislators had decided to use a public opinion poll to determine their stay in the Legislative Council, with the Democratic Party entrusting the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (#HKPORI) to conduct one.

Chairman of Democratic Party Wu Chi-wai stated that they would leave if half of all participating supporters believes that the pro-democracy camp should leave the Legislative Council.

Participating legislators include seven from the Democratic Party, five from the Civic Party, Claudia Mo from HK First, Fernando Cheung from the Labour Party and Shiu Ka-chun from the Social Welfare functional constituency. Leung Yiu-chung from the Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre also expressed that he would take the polls to account.

HKPORI Director Prof. Robert Chung believes that the Institute had decreased the gray area in the current threshold, but stated that "politically neutral" participants would also be taken in account, causing the percentage for those in favour or against the stay to be both not more than half.

When asked about the protocol for such an event, Wu stated that they would take different information into account before making a political judgement.

As for why they were only taking supporters of the participating legislators into account, and not towards all pro-democratic supporters, the Democractic Party stated that it had once considered for all supporters of the pro-democratic camp to participate, but Prof. Chung denied the request stating that the legislator's citizen authorisation came from their supporters.

Prof. Chung had been adamant on Friday, stating that were pro-democratic legislators not tied down, they should not have asked for authorisation.

Source: Ming Pao #Sept5

#DemocraticParty #WuChiWai #RobertChung #Methodology #PublicOpinion #Authorization

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Read the 3-part Series on Democracy Front's Dillemma on Whether Incumbent Pro-dem Lawmakers shall Serve in Extended Term Under Beijing's LegCo Arrangement:

Part 1:
https://t.me/guardiansofhongkong/24384

Part 2:
https://t.me/guardiansofhongkong/24385

Part 3:
https://t.me/guardiansofhongkong/24386