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❗️ GDW Finance Trading Results for July 2024.

📶 The fund's profit amounted to 1.75%.

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Main weekly news

The week has been eventful concerning the US dollar. We’ve compiled the key highlights:

➡️ At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.5% annually, aligning with analysts' forecasts.

➡️ Employment in the non-agricultural sectors of the U.S. increased by 114,000 in July, falling short of the anticipated growth of 175,000.

➡️ CME derivatives forecast a 74% likelihood of such changes, while interest rate swaps predict a policy easing of 84 basis points by 2024.

➡️ On Thursday, the Bank of England reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 5%.

➡️ According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase in job numbers for July was below the expected 175,000, with previous month's data revised down to 179,000.

➡️ The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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💰 Hello investor!

Results of the trading week (29/07/24-02/08/24)

➖Monday (29/07/24) - 0.06%
➖Tuesday (30/07/24) - 0.07%
➖Wednesday (31/07/24) - 0.10%
➖Thursday (01/07/24) - 0.08%
➖Friday (02/07/24) - 0.05%

📶 Total: 0.36%

🔗 Actual profitability until 02/08/2024: 68,37%

❗️ GDW Finance Trading Results for July 2024 — here.

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GOODWIN publications digest

Hello investor!

We present you the report for the past 2 weeks:

✅ Dollar's position following key reports

✅ The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate

🛫 Main weekly news (22/07/24 — 26/07/24)

🛫 Main weekly news (29/07/24 — 02/08/24)

💰 Results of the trading week (22/07/24 — 26/07/24)

💰 Results of the trading week (29/07/24 — 02/08/24)

🔗 Please note: GDW Finance Trading Results for July 2024

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The U.S. Dollar weakens at the start of the week

➡️ New unemployment data for July in the US showed an unexpected increase to 4.3% from 4.1%, putting pressure on the US dollar.

➡️ Job creation expectations in non-agricultural sectors also fell short: only 114,000 jobs were added, against the forecasted 175,000.

➡️ Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve confirmed the current federal funds rate of 5.25-5.5% annually at its July meeting, aligning with forecasts.

➡️ However, signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about a potential rate cut in September are also contributing to the dollar’s weakness, with analysts at CME Group 78.5% confident of an impending reduction.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#overview

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What happened on the U.S. Stock Market and how did the Dollar react?

➡️ Following a significant market downturn, analysts at Goldman Sachs have increased the probability of a recession in the US to 25%.

➡️ The S&P 500 index fell by 4.27%, the Dow Jones by 2.72%, and NASDAQ by 6.35%.

➡️ However, by the beginning of Tuesday, markets showed signs of stabilization after Monday's volatility.

➡️ The Dollar index slightly recovered, reaching a level of 103.00. EUR/USD exceeded 1.1000 but later fell below this level.

➡️ The DXY index rose by 0.26%, while the broader WSJ Dollar Index increased by 0.25%.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#overview

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Is the Fed planning to cut rates?

➡️ On Monday, representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve spoke against the notion that disappointing July employment data indicates a crisis state in the economy.

➡️ However, they also emphasized the need to lower rates to prevent such a scenario.

➡️ The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a well-known advocate for dovish monetary policy, Ostan Gulsbi, stated that the U.S. economy is not in recession.

➡️ According to him, the Fed is capable of adjusting its course should the situation worsen.

➡️ The central bank acknowledges that market fluctuations can be triggered by temporary factors or shifts in investors' strategies, which could potentially reverse. In such circumstances, the best strategy is to remain calm.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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Current situation with the U.S. Dollar

➡️ After a two-day rise, the US dollar is weakening, with the dollar index falling below 103.00 during the European session.

➡️ Today, data releases are expected from the US Department of Labor regarding initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories for June.

➡️ Despite significant gains on Tuesday, US stock indexes opened higher on Wednesday but lost momentum and closed lower.

➡️ Normally, a decline in stock indexes would strengthen the dollar as a safe-haven currency, but this time the scenario is unfolding differently.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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Main weekly news

The week was relatively calm for the US dollar despite stock market events. Here are the key highlights in one place:

➡️ On Friday, the dollar reached nearly a week's high following a significant annual decrease in new unemployment claims in the U.S., easing fears of an economic downturn.

➡️ The markets experienced a tumultuous week, triggered by weak U.S. employment data. According to the latest reports, unemployment claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000.

➡️ The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting dropped from 69% to 54%, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut stands at 46%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#news

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Results of the trading week (05/08/24-09/08/24)

➖Monday (05/08/24) - 0.06%
➖Tuesday (06/08/24) - 0.09%
➖Wednesday (07/08/24) - 0.04%
➖Thursday (08/08/24) - 0.06%
➖Friday (09/08/24) - 0.05%

📶Total: 0.29%

🔗 Actual profitability until 09/08/2024: 68,94%

❗️ GDW Finance Trading Results for July 2024 — here.

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Dollar dynamics and key events of the coming week

➡️ Current dollar trends echo those observed during previous US recessions. In each of the four past instances, the dollar strengthened, averaging a 3.1% gain on the DXY index.

➡️ This pertains to the period marked by the official start and end announcements of recessions by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

➡️ The agenda for the coming week includes: the US federal budget report for July, the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and unemployment claims statistics.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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Analysis of the current market situation

➡️ Investors are confident that the state of the US economy will not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates.

➡️ Weak macroeconomic data could lead to a more aggressive easing of monetary policy.

➡️ The S&P 500 no longer responds to bad news with gains, while EUR/USD awaits signals from inflation data.

➡️ A decrease in unemployment claims has reminded investors of the economy's stability. The Fed has not yet decided whether to ease monetary policy.

➡️ Markets are closely monitoring CPI data, which could show a slowdown in consumer price growth from 3% to 2.9% and core inflation from 3.3% to 3.2%. Both indicators are expected to increase by 0.2% monthly.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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Current market sentiment

➡️ The DXY dollar index has fallen to 103 points. There is 100% certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut its key rate at the September meeting.

➡️ The main question is whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. Easing monetary policy traditionally reduces the value of the national currency and supports risk assets and commodity markets.

➡️ EUR/USD aims to overcome the upper boundary of the current range at 1.088-1.0945 to resume its upward trend.

➡️ The Federal Reserve has managed to stabilize inflation expectations by maintaining rates at 5.5%. However, an unexpected increase in consumer prices could strengthen the dollar.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#overview

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Dollar weakens after PPI data release

➡️ The dollar fell after Tuesday's news of a decline in U.S. manufacturing inflation.

➡️ This decrease might enable the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which pushed the DXY index down to 102.6, while the euro reached 1.10.

➡️ The Producer Price Index data showed a year-over-year increase of 2.2% in July, following a revision of June's figure from 2.6% to 2.7%.

➡️ The improvement in manufacturing sector inflation increases the likelihood of the Fed easing monetary policy soon.

➡️ The market anticipates the Consumer Price Index report, which will also impact currency rates.

➡️ A Bank of America survey reveals that 60% of fund managers expect at least four Fed rate cuts over the next year.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#overview

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Are there significant changes in the market?

➡️ The market responded to the U.S. inflation data for July, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider additional indicators.

➡️ The decline in consumer prices below 3% reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September from 50% to 35%.

➡️ PCE and CPI data are unlikely to affect this decision, but employment could play a crucial role. This situation creates instability for the EUR/USD pair.

➡️ The market's muted response to the reduction in consumer prices to 2.9% and core inflation to 3.2% annually highlights that a potential recession in the U.S. has become the primary concern for investors.

➡️ If the market and the Federal Reserve shift their focus from inflation to employment, unemployment data may elicit a stronger reaction than consumer price figures.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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Main weekly news

The week was decidedly eventful. Here’s a roundup:

➡️ A drop in consumer prices below 3% has reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September from 50% to 35%.

➡️ On Thursday, the U.S. dollar strengthened following reports of decreased unemployment claims and increased retail sales.

➡️ The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, rose by 0.36% to reach 102.96.

➡️ U.S. retail sales in July increased by 1%, exceeding expectations despite a revised decline of 0.2% the previous month.

➡️ New claims for unemployment benefits last week totaled 227,000, fewer than the previous figures and lower than the forecasted 235,000.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#news

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Results of the trading week (12/08/24-16/08/24)

➖Monday (12/08/24) - 0.03%
➖Tuesday (13/08/24) - 0.05%
➖Wednesday (14/08/24) - 0.07%
➖Thursday (15/08/24) - 0.05%
➖Friday (16/08/24) - 0.04%

📶Total: 0.24%

🔗 Actual profitability until 16/08/2024: 69,18%

❗️ GDW Finance Trading Results for July 2024 — here.

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GOODWIN publications digest

Hello investor!

We present you the report for the past 2 weeks:

✅ Current market sentiment

✅ Dollar weakens after PPI data release

✅ Are there significant changes in the market?

🛫 Main weekly news (05/08/24 — 09/08/24)

🛫 Main weekly news (12/08/24 — 16/08/24)

💰 Results of the trading week (05/08/24 — 09/08/24)

💰 Results of the trading week (12/08/24 — 16/08/24)

🔗 Please note: GDW Finance Trading Results for July 2024

#digest

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Key week for the U.S. Dollar: are rate cuts on the horizon?

➡️ The July FOMC minutes and Chair Powell's speech on Friday will significantly impact the dollar's trajectory this week.

➡️ The euro reached a yearly high of 1.1051, closing the day at 1.1043.

➡️ Recession fears in the U.S. have intensified following a weak employment report, influencing the Fed's rate decisions.

➡️ Traders anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with a 29% chance of a 50 basis point reduction.

➡️ The dollar hit multi-month lows at 102.0, shedding over 2% this month amid expectations of upcoming rate cuts.

➡️ According to a Bank of America survey, 60% of fund managers expect at least four rate cuts by the Fed next year.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#overview

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What's ahead this week?

➡️ The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.58% to 40,896.53 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.97% to reach 5,608.25 points.

➡️ With inflation slowing and labor market conditions improving, the Federal Reserve is considering adjusting interest rates in line with economic conditions and policy objectives.

➡️ According to Trading Economics, the Fed might cut rates by up to 90 basis points by year-end, with a 72% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in September.

Key events to watch:

🍔 Wednesday - FOMC meeting minutes with discussions likely on the U.S. dollar's trajectory.

🍔 Thursday - U.S. labor market and economic activity data expected to influence the dollar's exchange rate.

🍔 Friday - U.S. real estate market statistics and remarks from Jerome Powell, which could potentially strengthen the dollar.

❗️ Please note: this content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.

#overview

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