Forecast for April 8
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2850, SL 1.2960, TP 1.2715
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from a one-month low near 1.2830, seen during the Asian session, and stabilized around 1.2900, pausing its pullback from the six-month high. However, gains remain limited due to gloomy global economic prospects.
Rising trade tensions following new US tariffs have heightened fears of a global slowdown, dragging equity markets lower and increasing demand for the safe-haven dollar, which pressures the pound.
Still, investors are cautious about making aggressive dollar bets, as expectations grow that US economic weakness could push the Fed to resume rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in four such cuts in 2025, and falling US bond yields are undermining dollar strength.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2850, SL 1.2960, TP 1.2715
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from a one-month low near 1.2830, seen during the Asian session, and stabilized around 1.2900, pausing its pullback from the six-month high. However, gains remain limited due to gloomy global economic prospects.
Rising trade tensions following new US tariffs have heightened fears of a global slowdown, dragging equity markets lower and increasing demand for the safe-haven dollar, which pressures the pound.
Still, investors are cautious about making aggressive dollar bets, as expectations grow that US economic weakness could push the Fed to resume rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in four such cuts in 2025, and falling US bond yields are undermining dollar strength.
Forecast for April 8
USDJPY: BUY 147.00, SL 145.80, TP 148.15
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) began the week on a strong note amid rising concerns over a global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, diminished expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen. As a result, USD/JPY dropped back to a six-month low below 145.00 during the Asian session.
Nonetheless, rising inflation expectations in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ rate hikes in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may also limit any significant downside in the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s rebound, as Fed rate cut expectations and falling Treasury yields weigh on the greenback and cap any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.
USDJPY: BUY 147.00, SL 145.80, TP 148.15
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) began the week on a strong note amid rising concerns over a global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, diminished expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen. As a result, USD/JPY dropped back to a six-month low below 145.00 during the Asian session.
Nonetheless, rising inflation expectations in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ rate hikes in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may also limit any significant downside in the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s rebound, as Fed rate cut expectations and falling Treasury yields weigh on the greenback and cap any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.
Forecast for April 9
EURUSD: SELL 1.0950, SL 1.1030, TP 1.0830
EURUSD:
After a tense week in which the U.S. adopted a protectionist trade policy despite lacking a strong industrial base, broad import tariffs have come into effect. A general 10% import tax now applies to goods from all countries, alongside “reciprocal” tariffs calculated based on the U.S. import-export ratio. A 34% tariff was imposed on Chinese goods, prompting an identical response from China. The Trump administration has threatened an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports starting April 8.
This week, market attention returns to U.S. data: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
Investors are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates to prevent a recession. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in nearly 200 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious messaging that trade uncertainty complicates the path to easing.
EURUSD: SELL 1.0950, SL 1.1030, TP 1.0830
EURUSD:
After a tense week in which the U.S. adopted a protectionist trade policy despite lacking a strong industrial base, broad import tariffs have come into effect. A general 10% import tax now applies to goods from all countries, alongside “reciprocal” tariffs calculated based on the U.S. import-export ratio. A 34% tariff was imposed on Chinese goods, prompting an identical response from China. The Trump administration has threatened an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports starting April 8.
This week, market attention returns to U.S. data: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
Investors are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates to prevent a recession. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in nearly 200 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious messaging that trade uncertainty complicates the path to easing.
Forecast for April 9
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2750, SL 1.2830, TP 1.2600
GBPUSD:
Following a tense week where the U.S. embraced a protectionist stance without sufficient industrial support, large-scale import tariffs were introduced. A flat 10% import tax was applied across all countries, along with “reciprocal” tariffs based on the U.S. import/export ratio. A 34% tariff on Chinese goods was met with an identical Chinese response. The Trump administration threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective April 8.
This week, focus once again shifts to key U.S. economic releases: CPI data is expected Thursday, followed by PPI and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates to offset recession risks. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in close to 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious tone and its emphasis on trade uncertainty as a complicating factor.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2750, SL 1.2830, TP 1.2600
GBPUSD:
Following a tense week where the U.S. embraced a protectionist stance without sufficient industrial support, large-scale import tariffs were introduced. A flat 10% import tax was applied across all countries, along with “reciprocal” tariffs based on the U.S. import/export ratio. A 34% tariff on Chinese goods was met with an identical Chinese response. The Trump administration threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective April 8.
This week, focus once again shifts to key U.S. economic releases: CPI data is expected Thursday, followed by PPI and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates to offset recession risks. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in close to 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious tone and its emphasis on trade uncertainty as a complicating factor.
Forecast for April 9
USDJPY: SELL 147.00, SL 148.20, TP 144.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar during Tuesday’s Asian session, halting a sharp pullback from a multi-month high. Despite concerns that U.S. retaliatory tariffs could negatively impact Japan’s economy, persistent inflation in Japan keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025 — a key factor supporting the yen.
Additionally, the yen benefits from its safe-haven status amid global economic uncertainty fueled by President Trump’s tariff policy. Meanwhile, traders are factoring in the possibility that a U.S. economic slowdown could push the Federal Reserve toward aggressive rate cuts, contrasting with the BoJ’s hawkish outlook and limiting the dollar’s two-day rebound from multi-month lows.
USDJPY: SELL 147.00, SL 148.20, TP 144.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar during Tuesday’s Asian session, halting a sharp pullback from a multi-month high. Despite concerns that U.S. retaliatory tariffs could negatively impact Japan’s economy, persistent inflation in Japan keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025 — a key factor supporting the yen.
Additionally, the yen benefits from its safe-haven status amid global economic uncertainty fueled by President Trump’s tariff policy. Meanwhile, traders are factoring in the possibility that a U.S. economic slowdown could push the Federal Reserve toward aggressive rate cuts, contrasting with the BoJ’s hawkish outlook and limiting the dollar’s two-day rebound from multi-month lows.
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Forecast for April 15
EURUSD: SELL 1.1350, SL 1.1450, TP 1.1200
EURUSD:
On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance sharply raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, in response to President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. In an effort to ease tensions, the European Union suspended its planned retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, mirroring a similar move by Washington.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to decline for a third consecutive session, falling below the 100.00 mark and nearing a three-year low. The drop reflects weakening investor confidence amid disappointing economic data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, and the core reading fell to 3.3%. Jobless claims rose to 223,000, but continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, highlighting mixed signals in the labor market.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the impact of the trade war largely depends on how quickly uncertainty is resolved, calling the current situation the biggest blow to confidence since March 2020.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1350, SL 1.1450, TP 1.1200
EURUSD:
On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance sharply raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, in response to President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. In an effort to ease tensions, the European Union suspended its planned retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, mirroring a similar move by Washington.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to decline for a third consecutive session, falling below the 100.00 mark and nearing a three-year low. The drop reflects weakening investor confidence amid disappointing economic data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, and the core reading fell to 3.3%. Jobless claims rose to 223,000, but continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, highlighting mixed signals in the labor market.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the impact of the trade war largely depends on how quickly uncertainty is resolved, calling the current situation the biggest blow to confidence since March 2020.
Forecast for April 15
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310
GBPUSD:
Markets only briefly reacted to Trump’s decision to delay tariffs for 90 days, as recession fears in the U.S. intensified following the escalation of the trade conflict with China. On Thursday, China imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. goods, while the U.S. raised duties on Chinese imports to a record 145%. Given the U.S. still relies on several hard-to-replace Chinese materials, confidence in the economy has weakened.
Recent data showed a 0.1% decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, while core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year—below expectations. Markets are now pricing in a 90 basis point rate cut by year-end. In contrast, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in May is seen as lower.
Despite a supportive fundamental backdrop, investors remain cautious, awaiting key UK data: the employment report on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday. Attention will also be on U.S. retail sales and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, both of which could influence dollar dynamics and drive movement in the GBP/USD pair.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310
GBPUSD:
Markets only briefly reacted to Trump’s decision to delay tariffs for 90 days, as recession fears in the U.S. intensified following the escalation of the trade conflict with China. On Thursday, China imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. goods, while the U.S. raised duties on Chinese imports to a record 145%. Given the U.S. still relies on several hard-to-replace Chinese materials, confidence in the economy has weakened.
Recent data showed a 0.1% decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, while core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year—below expectations. Markets are now pricing in a 90 basis point rate cut by year-end. In contrast, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in May is seen as lower.
Despite a supportive fundamental backdrop, investors remain cautious, awaiting key UK data: the employment report on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday. Attention will also be on U.S. retail sales and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, both of which could influence dollar dynamics and drive movement in the GBP/USD pair.
Forecast for April 15
USDJPY: SELL 142.50, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is strengthening at the start of the week, staying near its highest level since September 2024, reached last Friday amid broad U.S. dollar weakness. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China continues to boost demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the yen. Additionally, hopes for a potential U.S.–Japan trade deal are also supporting the currency.
Signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance due to concerns that the trade war could hinder U.S. economic growth. This narrows the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding yen is to the upside.
USDJPY: SELL 142.50, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is strengthening at the start of the week, staying near its highest level since September 2024, reached last Friday amid broad U.S. dollar weakness. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China continues to boost demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the yen. Additionally, hopes for a potential U.S.–Japan trade deal are also supporting the currency.
Signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance due to concerns that the trade war could hinder U.S. economic growth. This narrows the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding yen is to the upside.
Forecast for April 16
EURUSD: SELL 1.1310, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1140
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.1400 and 1.1300 on Monday, ending the day near the middle of that range. The US dollar continues to strengthen following the Trump administration’s withdrawal of tariff threats, though market sentiment remains weak due to lingering concerns over trade tensions.
On Tuesday, mid-tier sentiment indicators from Europe are due, followed by US retail sales data on Wednesday. However, the key event for the EUR/USD this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting, where markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut in response to the economic fallout from the US’s unstable tariff policies.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1310, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1140
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.1400 and 1.1300 on Monday, ending the day near the middle of that range. The US dollar continues to strengthen following the Trump administration’s withdrawal of tariff threats, though market sentiment remains weak due to lingering concerns over trade tensions.
On Tuesday, mid-tier sentiment indicators from Europe are due, followed by US retail sales data on Wednesday. However, the key event for the EUR/USD this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting, where markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut in response to the economic fallout from the US’s unstable tariff policies.
Forecast for April 16
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3220, SL 1.3090, TP 1.3410
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rose 0.75% on Monday, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains as the pound continues to recover against the weakening US dollar. However, upcoming UK economic data could impact the pair’s trajectory.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data will be released: unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%, while jobless claims for March are forecast to drop to 30.3K from 44.2K in February. CPI inflation figures are due Wednesday, with overall annual inflation projected to ease to 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to remain at 3.5%.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3220, SL 1.3090, TP 1.3410
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rose 0.75% on Monday, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains as the pound continues to recover against the weakening US dollar. However, upcoming UK economic data could impact the pair’s trajectory.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data will be released: unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%, while jobless claims for March are forecast to drop to 30.3K from 44.2K in February. CPI inflation figures are due Wednesday, with overall annual inflation projected to ease to 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to remain at 3.5%.
Forecast for April 16
USDJPY: SELL 142.80, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The yen is weakening on Tuesday, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the mid-143.00s amid modest US dollar strength. Trump’s decision to cancel tariffs on consumer electronics and the possibility of temporary relief for the auto sector are fueling market optimism, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.
However, the escalating US-China trade war and fears over the economic impact of Trump’s tariff strategy continue to weigh on risk appetite. Diverging monetary policy paths — expectations of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan versus potential easing by the Fed — along with hopes for a US-Japan trade deal, could help limit further losses for the low-yielding yen.
USDJPY: SELL 142.80, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The yen is weakening on Tuesday, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the mid-143.00s amid modest US dollar strength. Trump’s decision to cancel tariffs on consumer electronics and the possibility of temporary relief for the auto sector are fueling market optimism, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.
However, the escalating US-China trade war and fears over the economic impact of Trump’s tariff strategy continue to weigh on risk appetite. Diverging monetary policy paths — expectations of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan versus potential easing by the Fed — along with hopes for a US-Japan trade deal, could help limit further losses for the low-yielding yen.
Forecast for April 17
EURUSD: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading higher around 1.1285 in early Asian hours on Wednesday. The US dollar remains near a three-year low amid persistent trade tensions.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that Trump’s tariff policy had significantly hurt the US economy and could force the Fed to cut rates even if inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged caution, suggesting rate cuts should wait until there’s more clarity.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday due to growing recession fears driven by US tariffs. Analysts also see the possibility of cuts to all three key rates. In March, the ECB lowered the deposit rate to 2.5%; another cut would bring it down to 2.25%.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading higher around 1.1285 in early Asian hours on Wednesday. The US dollar remains near a three-year low amid persistent trade tensions.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that Trump’s tariff policy had significantly hurt the US economy and could force the Fed to cut rates even if inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged caution, suggesting rate cuts should wait until there’s more clarity.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday due to growing recession fears driven by US tariffs. Analysts also see the possibility of cuts to all three key rates. In March, the ECB lowered the deposit rate to 2.5%; another cut would bring it down to 2.25%.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3270, SL 1.3140, TP 1.3470
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its rally from April 8 and is trading near 1.3250 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after touching a fresh six-month high at 1.3256 earlier in the day.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in February, matching expectations. The Bank of England has so far refrained from easing policy, citing wage growth, but markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in May, along with two more cuts later this year.
Investors are now awaiting the UK’s March CPI report due later today. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 99.80, with focus turning to US retail sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of trade issues on consumer behavior.
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its rally from April 8 and is trading near 1.3250 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after touching a fresh six-month high at 1.3256 earlier in the day.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in February, matching expectations. The Bank of England has so far refrained from easing policy, citing wage growth, but markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in May, along with two more cuts later this year.
Investors are now awaiting the UK’s March CPI report due later today. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 99.80, with focus turning to US retail sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of trade issues on consumer behavior.
Forecast for April 17
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is rebounding after a slight pullback, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty that continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additional support came from a sharp rise in Japan’s core machinery orders for February, beating market expectations, along with hopes for a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates in 2025.
BoJ’s hawkish outlook contrasts with increasing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, boosting the yen’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns that Trump’s trade policies could hinder US economic growth, keeping the USD/JPY pair near its six-month lows.
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is rebounding after a slight pullback, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty that continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additional support came from a sharp rise in Japan’s core machinery orders for February, beating market expectations, along with hopes for a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates in 2025.
BoJ’s hawkish outlook contrasts with increasing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, boosting the yen’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns that Trump’s trade policies could hinder US economic growth, keeping the USD/JPY pair near its six-month lows.
Forecast for April 18
EURUSD: SELL 1.1320, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1160
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
🔹 15:45 EET. EUR - ECB Press Conference
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair remains steady near 1.1400 in early Asian trading on Thursday, as markets adopt a cautious tone amid anticipation of potential trade deals from the Trump administration.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could undermine the Fed’s employment and inflation goals, increasing the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown and putting pressure on the dollar.
The ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday — marking the sixth consecutive cut — amid ongoing tariff tensions and economic uncertainty.
Market focus is on the ECB press conference, where analysts believe Christine Lagarde is unlikely to hint at further rate cuts until more data becomes available.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1320, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1160
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
🔹 15:45 EET. EUR - ECB Press Conference
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair remains steady near 1.1400 in early Asian trading on Thursday, as markets adopt a cautious tone amid anticipation of potential trade deals from the Trump administration.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could undermine the Fed’s employment and inflation goals, increasing the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown and putting pressure on the dollar.
The ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday — marking the sixth consecutive cut — amid ongoing tariff tensions and economic uncertainty.
Market focus is on the ECB press conference, where analysts believe Christine Lagarde is unlikely to hint at further rate cuts until more data becomes available.
Forecast for April 18
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3190, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3010
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair ended its seven-day winning streak, falling to 1.3230 in Thursday’s Asian session after reaching a six-month high of 1.3292 on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 99.60, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales, which rose 1.4% in March, beating both the previous 0.2% gain and the forecast of 1.3%.
The pound came under pressure following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data: core inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year versus a 2.7% forecast, while services inflation fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in May.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3190, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3010
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair ended its seven-day winning streak, falling to 1.3230 in Thursday’s Asian session after reaching a six-month high of 1.3292 on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 99.60, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales, which rose 1.4% in March, beating both the previous 0.2% gain and the forecast of 1.3%.
The pound came under pressure following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data: core inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year versus a 2.7% forecast, while services inflation fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in May.
Forecast for April 18
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 144.00, TP 140.30
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen pulled back after reaching a multi-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, though a deeper decline remains limited. Positive sentiment in global equity markets and a mild rebound in the dollar helped USD/JPY recover over 100 pips from the 141.60 level.
However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff announcements, the escalating U.S.-China trade war, and recession fears are capping risk appetite. The yen continues to find support from expectations that the Bank of Japan may eventually raise interest rates — though potentially delayed — as well as hopes for a trade deal between Japan and the U.S.
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 144.00, TP 140.30
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen pulled back after reaching a multi-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, though a deeper decline remains limited. Positive sentiment in global equity markets and a mild rebound in the dollar helped USD/JPY recover over 100 pips from the 141.60 level.
However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff announcements, the escalating U.S.-China trade war, and recession fears are capping risk appetite. The yen continues to find support from expectations that the Bank of Japan may eventually raise interest rates — though potentially delayed — as well as hopes for a trade deal between Japan and the U.S.
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🔹 Central banks ramp up gold buying — +41% in Q1.
🔹 Trump targets critical mineral imports — market reacts fast.
🔹 US inflation hits 6.7% — highest since 1981, dollar under pressure.
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Forecast for April 24
EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1300
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair declines toward 1.1355 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback finds support after Donald Trump stated he does not plan to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism over the Fed’s slow pace in cutting interest rates.
Further boosting the dollar are reports of progress in US trade talks, with 18 countries already submitting proposals and meetings with 34 nations scheduled for this week.
Hawkish comments from Fed officials also support the dollar. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized the need to keep rates unchanged due to rising inflation risks driven by elevated import tariffs.
Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June continue to weigh on the euro, with the probability of such a move increasing to 75%, according to LSEG data (up from 60% previously).
EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1300
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair declines toward 1.1355 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback finds support after Donald Trump stated he does not plan to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism over the Fed’s slow pace in cutting interest rates.
Further boosting the dollar are reports of progress in US trade talks, with 18 countries already submitting proposals and meetings with 34 nations scheduled for this week.
Hawkish comments from Fed officials also support the dollar. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized the need to keep rates unchanged due to rising inflation risks driven by elevated import tariffs.
Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June continue to weigh on the euro, with the probability of such a move increasing to 75%, according to LSEG data (up from 60% previously).