Forecast for March 24
EURUSD: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0930, TP 1.0760
EURUSD:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the threat to the economy from Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric, noting that downside price risks have increased, but U.S. economic data remains strong, albeit below recent peaks.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 12.5 in March from 18.1, still beating market expectations of 8.5. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 223K, just above the previous week’s 220K but below the forecast of 224K. Existing home sales jumped to 4.26 million in February, surpassing both the revised January figure of 4.09 million and expectations of 3.95 million.
With few key data releases on Friday, investors are focused on the week’s developments and potential social media statements from Trump.
EURUSD: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0930, TP 1.0760
EURUSD:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the threat to the economy from Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric, noting that downside price risks have increased, but U.S. economic data remains strong, albeit below recent peaks.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 12.5 in March from 18.1, still beating market expectations of 8.5. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 223K, just above the previous week’s 220K but below the forecast of 224K. Existing home sales jumped to 4.26 million in February, surpassing both the revised January figure of 4.09 million and expectations of 3.95 million.
With few key data releases on Friday, investors are focused on the week’s developments and potential social media statements from Trump.
Forecast for March 24
GBPUSD: BUY 1.2950, SL 1.2870, TP 1.3090
GBPUSD:
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and raised its inflation outlook. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy and geopolitical tensions is supporting the U.S. dollar and weighing on GBP/USD.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting a moderate recovery from a multi-month low, though a strong rebound remains elusive. Concerns over a potential slowdown in U.S. economic activity due to tariffs could prompt the Fed to begin cutting rates earlier than expected.
Markets are currently pricing in Fed rate cuts in June, July, and October. In contrast, the Bank of England is pushing back on dovish expectations and has raised its peak inflation forecast, suggesting it may cut rates more cautiously than other central banks, which supports the pound.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.2950, SL 1.2870, TP 1.3090
GBPUSD:
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and raised its inflation outlook. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy and geopolitical tensions is supporting the U.S. dollar and weighing on GBP/USD.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting a moderate recovery from a multi-month low, though a strong rebound remains elusive. Concerns over a potential slowdown in U.S. economic activity due to tariffs could prompt the Fed to begin cutting rates earlier than expected.
Markets are currently pricing in Fed rate cuts in June, July, and October. In contrast, the Bank of England is pushing back on dovish expectations and has raised its peak inflation forecast, suggesting it may cut rates more cautiously than other central banks, which supports the pound.
Forecast for March 24
USDJPY: SELL 149.20, SL 150.10, TP 147.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is weakening on Friday following a slowdown in Japan’s annual CPI in February. This, combined with a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar, helped USD/JPY recover above the 149.00 level. However, expectations of further BoJ rate hikes amid rising wages are limiting JPY losses.
Additional support for the yen comes from uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy and elevated geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, expectations of the Fed resuming rate cuts soon contrast with the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish stance, which could cap gains in USD/JPY.
USDJPY: SELL 149.20, SL 150.10, TP 147.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is weakening on Friday following a slowdown in Japan’s annual CPI in February. This, combined with a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar, helped USD/JPY recover above the 149.00 level. However, expectations of further BoJ rate hikes amid rising wages are limiting JPY losses.
Additional support for the yen comes from uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy and elevated geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, expectations of the Fed resuming rate cuts soon contrast with the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish stance, which could cap gains in USD/JPY.
Forecast for April 1
EURUSD: BUY 1.0850, SL 1.0765, TP 1.0955
Event to pay attention to today:
15:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is attempting to recover after dipping to the 1.0800 level during the Asian session, holding near 1.0835. However, the upside is limited by a lack of strong bullish conviction.
The US Dollar remains under pressure for the third consecutive day amid growing stagflation concerns in the US. Inflation data — including a 0.4% rise in core PCE for February and an increase in the annual rate to 2.8% — has failed to support the greenback. Additional pressure comes from rising inflation expectations, as indicated by the University of Michigan survey, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policy. These factors contribute to a cautious Federal Reserve stance but offer little support to the dollar.
Meanwhile, the euro finds support from easing trade tensions between the EU and the US, with the European Commission reportedly preparing concessions to avoid new US tariffs. Still, prevailing risk-off sentiment could support the safe-haven dollar and cap EUR/USD gains. Traders are now awaiting preliminary German inflation data for fresh momentum, with the overall fundamental outlook remaining moderately favorable for the euro.
EURUSD: BUY 1.0850, SL 1.0765, TP 1.0955
Event to pay attention to today:
15:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is attempting to recover after dipping to the 1.0800 level during the Asian session, holding near 1.0835. However, the upside is limited by a lack of strong bullish conviction.
The US Dollar remains under pressure for the third consecutive day amid growing stagflation concerns in the US. Inflation data — including a 0.4% rise in core PCE for February and an increase in the annual rate to 2.8% — has failed to support the greenback. Additional pressure comes from rising inflation expectations, as indicated by the University of Michigan survey, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policy. These factors contribute to a cautious Federal Reserve stance but offer little support to the dollar.
Meanwhile, the euro finds support from easing trade tensions between the EU and the US, with the European Commission reportedly preparing concessions to avoid new US tariffs. Still, prevailing risk-off sentiment could support the safe-haven dollar and cap EUR/USD gains. Traders are now awaiting preliminary German inflation data for fresh momentum, with the overall fundamental outlook remaining moderately favorable for the euro.
Forecast for April 1
GBPUSD: BUY 1.2970, SL 1.2900, TP 1.3030
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD is gaining strength and approaching the 1.2965 level, driven by pressure on the US dollar amid fears that Trump’s tariffs will boost inflation and slow US economic growth.
Trump has announced 25% tariffs on imported cars starting April 3, in addition to existing steel and aluminum duties and expected retaliatory tariffs. Analysts warn that such measures could hurt the US economy, raise inflation, and limit the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates — a scenario that weakens the dollar and supports GBP/USD.
The pound also benefits from strong UK retail sales data: February saw a 1.0% monthly rise versus expectations for a 0.3% decline. This positive surprise offers hope for an economic rebound, further strengthening the pound.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.2970, SL 1.2900, TP 1.3030
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD is gaining strength and approaching the 1.2965 level, driven by pressure on the US dollar amid fears that Trump’s tariffs will boost inflation and slow US economic growth.
Trump has announced 25% tariffs on imported cars starting April 3, in addition to existing steel and aluminum duties and expected retaliatory tariffs. Analysts warn that such measures could hurt the US economy, raise inflation, and limit the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates — a scenario that weakens the dollar and supports GBP/USD.
The pound also benefits from strong UK retail sales data: February saw a 1.0% monthly rise versus expectations for a 0.3% decline. This positive surprise offers hope for an economic rebound, further strengthening the pound.
Forecast for April 1
USDJPY: SELL 148.80, SL 149.40, TP 147.85
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen continues to strengthen for the second straight day, hitting a one-week high during the Asian session on Monday. Demand for safe-haven assets is fueled by fears over Trump’s upcoming retaliatory tariffs and heightened geopolitical risks.
Further support for the yen comes from Tokyo inflation data, which raised expectations that the Bank of Japan could hike rates in May. This stands in contrast to expectations of Fed rate cuts amid a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economy, adding pressure to the dollar and lifting the yen.
USDJPY: SELL 148.80, SL 149.40, TP 147.85
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen continues to strengthen for the second straight day, hitting a one-week high during the Asian session on Monday. Demand for safe-haven assets is fueled by fears over Trump’s upcoming retaliatory tariffs and heightened geopolitical risks.
Further support for the yen comes from Tokyo inflation data, which raised expectations that the Bank of Japan could hike rates in May. This stands in contrast to expectations of Fed rate cuts amid a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economy, adding pressure to the dollar and lifting the yen.
Forecast for April 2
EURUSD: SELL 1.0815, SL 1.0860, TP 1.0730
An event to watch out for today:
🔹 11:00 EET. EUR - Manufacturing Activity Index
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
EURUSD:
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair failed to break above the 1.0850 level, starting the week on a weak footing. Investors are bracing for a new round of tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Starting April 2, the administration plans to impose sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, including retaliatory measures against any country that restricts American imports, as well as additional duties targeting Canada, the EU, copper, and automobiles.
On Wednesday, preliminary Eurozone inflation data (HICP) will be released. No major changes are expected, as price pressures remain stable.
Later this week, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is due. The report is likely to serve as a key indicator of how the U.S. economy is adjusting to the post-tariff environment.
EURUSD: SELL 1.0815, SL 1.0860, TP 1.0730
An event to watch out for today:
🔹 11:00 EET. EUR - Manufacturing Activity Index
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
EURUSD:
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair failed to break above the 1.0850 level, starting the week on a weak footing. Investors are bracing for a new round of tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Starting April 2, the administration plans to impose sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, including retaliatory measures against any country that restricts American imports, as well as additional duties targeting Canada, the EU, copper, and automobiles.
On Wednesday, preliminary Eurozone inflation data (HICP) will be released. No major changes are expected, as price pressures remain stable.
Later this week, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is due. The report is likely to serve as a key indicator of how the U.S. economy is adjusting to the post-tariff environment.
Forecast for April 2
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2925, SL 1.3000, TP 1.2865
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
GBPUSD:
On Monday, the GBP/USD pair traded within familiar territory as investors awaited fresh tariff threats from President Trump. Starting April 2, the U.S. administration is expected to roll out broad tariffs affecting most of its trading partners.
While specific details remain unclear, the main threats include retaliatory duties on countries imposing tariffs on U.S. goods, along with additional flat tariffs on Canadian and EU exports, as well as copper and automobiles.
The UK economic calendar is light this week, but the release of U.S. NFP data remains a major event, likely to influence market sentiment regarding the impact of tariff policy.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2925, SL 1.3000, TP 1.2865
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
GBPUSD:
On Monday, the GBP/USD pair traded within familiar territory as investors awaited fresh tariff threats from President Trump. Starting April 2, the U.S. administration is expected to roll out broad tariffs affecting most of its trading partners.
While specific details remain unclear, the main threats include retaliatory duties on countries imposing tariffs on U.S. goods, along with additional flat tariffs on Canadian and EU exports, as well as copper and automobiles.
The UK economic calendar is light this week, but the release of U.S. NFP data remains a major event, likely to influence market sentiment regarding the impact of tariff policy.
Forecast for April 2
USDJPY: BUY 149.80, SL 149.20, TP 150.60
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is strengthening against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, pausing its pullback from last week’s high. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Tankan survey showed a rise in inflation expectations among Japanese firms, reinforcing the case for further rate hikes and supporting the yen. In addition, a mild dip in the U.S. dollar is helping keep USD/JPY below the 150.00 mark.
However, JPY gains are capped by a rebound in global risk sentiment, which typically weighs on safe-haven currencies. Also, fading expectations of aggressive BoJ rate hikes—amid concerns over slowing growth due to U.S. tariffs—act as a headwind. Still, the BoJ’s hawkish stance remains in stark contrast to the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts, keeping upward potential intact for the yen.
USDJPY: BUY 149.80, SL 149.20, TP 150.60
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is strengthening against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, pausing its pullback from last week’s high. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Tankan survey showed a rise in inflation expectations among Japanese firms, reinforcing the case for further rate hikes and supporting the yen. In addition, a mild dip in the U.S. dollar is helping keep USD/JPY below the 150.00 mark.
However, JPY gains are capped by a rebound in global risk sentiment, which typically weighs on safe-haven currencies. Also, fading expectations of aggressive BoJ rate hikes—amid concerns over slowing growth due to U.S. tariffs—act as a headwind. Still, the BoJ’s hawkish stance remains in stark contrast to the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts, keeping upward potential intact for the yen.
Forecast for April 3
EURUSD: BUY 1.0810, SL 1.0730, TP 1.0930
EURUSD:
EUR/USD held near the 1.0800 level on Tuesday, as investors awaited the potential announcement of a new tariff package from U.S. President Donald Trump.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March fell to 49.0 from 50.3, below expectations (49.5), amid growing anticipation of upcoming tariffs. The new orders index also declined for a second consecutive month, hitting a two-year low at 45.2.
European data remained largely neutral, but market focus stayed on the tariff developments. Attention now shifts to Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could serve as a benchmark for assessing the impact of tariff policy.
EURUSD: BUY 1.0810, SL 1.0730, TP 1.0930
EURUSD:
EUR/USD held near the 1.0800 level on Tuesday, as investors awaited the potential announcement of a new tariff package from U.S. President Donald Trump.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March fell to 49.0 from 50.3, below expectations (49.5), amid growing anticipation of upcoming tariffs. The new orders index also declined for a second consecutive month, hitting a two-year low at 45.2.
European data remained largely neutral, but market focus stayed on the tariff developments. Attention now shifts to Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could serve as a benchmark for assessing the impact of tariff policy.
Forecast for April 3
GBPUSD: BUY 1.2925, SL 1.2845, TP 1.3065
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD held steady just above 1.2900 on Tuesday, as markets awaited President Trump’s long-anticipated tariff announcement, scheduled for Wednesday evening (19:00 GMT).
According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Trade Representative is reportedly preparing an alternative tariff proposal in a last-minute effort to soften the expected measures.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March dropped to 49.0 from 50.3, worse than market forecasts (49.5). The new orders index also fell sharply for a second straight month, reaching a two-year low at 45.2.
The UK economic calendar remains light this week, with traders focused on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. The data could become a key reference point for evaluating the effects of Trump’s tariff agenda.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.2925, SL 1.2845, TP 1.3065
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD held steady just above 1.2900 on Tuesday, as markets awaited President Trump’s long-anticipated tariff announcement, scheduled for Wednesday evening (19:00 GMT).
According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Trade Representative is reportedly preparing an alternative tariff proposal in a last-minute effort to soften the expected measures.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March dropped to 49.0 from 50.3, worse than market forecasts (49.5). The new orders index also fell sharply for a second straight month, reaching a two-year low at 45.2.
The UK economic calendar remains light this week, with traders focused on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. The data could become a key reference point for evaluating the effects of Trump’s tariff agenda.
Forecast for April 3
USDJPY: SELL 150.00, SL 150.90, TP 148.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) failed to build on Tuesday’s modest gains and came under renewed selling pressure during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, USD/JPY remained within its recent range, with traders awaiting a fresh catalyst — namely President Trump’s expected tariff announcement later today.
Speculation that the tariff-driven economic slowdown might prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its current policy has been weighing on the yen. Still, expectations that the BoJ may tighten policy due to rising inflation contrast with growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in June — a divergence that continues to pressure the low-yielding yen.
USDJPY: SELL 150.00, SL 150.90, TP 148.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) failed to build on Tuesday’s modest gains and came under renewed selling pressure during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, USD/JPY remained within its recent range, with traders awaiting a fresh catalyst — namely President Trump’s expected tariff announcement later today.
Speculation that the tariff-driven economic slowdown might prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its current policy has been weighing on the yen. Still, expectations that the BoJ may tighten policy due to rising inflation contrast with growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in June — a divergence that continues to pressure the low-yielding yen.
Ethereum under threat: What’s behind the drop — and what could save it in 2025
Ethereum is down 45.4% this quarter. Reasons?
⚠️ Rising competition (Solana, Cardano)
⚠️ High gas fees
⚠️ Delayed upgrades like Ethereum 2.0
But 2025 could flip the script:
✅ Ethereum 2.0 — faster, cheaper, eco-friendly (PoS upgrade)
✅ DeFi boom — ETH fuels the growing DeFi economy
✅ Layer 2 tech — rollups scale the network, cut fees
✅ NFT/tokenization — Ethereum leads the digital asset wave
✅ Regulatory clarity — global acceptance could unlock big investments
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Ethereum is down 45.4% this quarter. Reasons?
⚠️ Rising competition (Solana, Cardano)
⚠️ High gas fees
⚠️ Delayed upgrades like Ethereum 2.0
But 2025 could flip the script:
✅ Ethereum 2.0 — faster, cheaper, eco-friendly (PoS upgrade)
✅ DeFi boom — ETH fuels the growing DeFi economy
✅ Layer 2 tech — rollups scale the network, cut fees
✅ NFT/tokenization — Ethereum leads the digital asset wave
✅ Regulatory clarity — global acceptance could unlock big investments
📊 FreshForex analysts expect a rebound in Q3–Q4 2025. Be ready.
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🚨 Non-Farm Payrolls drops tomorrow!
The key U.S. jobs report hits at 3:30 PM EET, April 4 — and it could shake the markets!
📉 Weak numbers → USD down, gold up
📈 Strong report → USD rally, pressure on stocks and metals
🔥 Forecast: +140,000 new jobs — weaker than usual. Volatility is almost guaranteed.
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The key U.S. jobs report hits at 3:30 PM EET, April 4 — and it could shake the markets!
📉 Weak numbers → USD down, gold up
📈 Strong report → USD rally, pressure on stocks and metals
🔥 Forecast: +140,000 new jobs — weaker than usual. Volatility is almost guaranteed.
💡 Are you ready to trade the move?
🎁 Grab your 101% bonus up to $2,500 and make it count!
Forecast for April 7
EURUSD: BUY 1.1080, SL 1.1010, TP 1.1160
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair surged on Thursday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar following the Trump administration’s announcement of new tariffs. On Friday, the euro pulled back slightly but remains poised for further gains.
This week’s European economic calendar is relatively light, but Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could significantly impact the markets, reflecting the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.
The U.S. ISM Services PMI for March dropped to a nine-month low of 50.8, deepening investor pessimism. Business sentiment had already been deteriorating in anticipation of the tariffs and is unlikely to recover quickly.
President Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5, with retaliatory tariffs taking effect on April 9. Fitch Ratings expects U.S. economic growth to slow and warns that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts while assessing the impact of the tariffs on inflation and employment.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1080, SL 1.1010, TP 1.1160
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair surged on Thursday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar following the Trump administration’s announcement of new tariffs. On Friday, the euro pulled back slightly but remains poised for further gains.
This week’s European economic calendar is relatively light, but Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could significantly impact the markets, reflecting the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.
The U.S. ISM Services PMI for March dropped to a nine-month low of 50.8, deepening investor pessimism. Business sentiment had already been deteriorating in anticipation of the tariffs and is unlikely to recover quickly.
President Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5, with retaliatory tariffs taking effect on April 9. Fitch Ratings expects U.S. economic growth to slow and warns that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts while assessing the impact of the tariffs on inflation and employment.
Forecast for April 7
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3090, SL 1.3020, TP 1.3200
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
GBPUSD:
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair briefly broke above 1.3200 for the first time in six months, reaching fresh highs amid broad dollar weakness. The market reaction followed the tariff announcements made after U.S. markets closed on Wednesday.
The U.K. economic calendar is calm this week, but focus is on Friday’s NFP report, which could reveal the consequences of Trump’s trade policy and influence market sentiment.
The March ISM Services PMI in the U.S. fell to 50.8 — the lowest in nine months — marking one of the sharpest declines since the pandemic began. Business activity and consumer optimism had already been weakening before the tariffs and are unlikely to rebound quickly.
A 10% tariff on all imports took effect on April 5, with retaliatory measures starting April 9. Fitch Ratings forecasts slower U.S. GDP growth and notes the Fed may pause its monetary easing to gauge the tariffs’ impact on inflation and the labor market.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3090, SL 1.3020, TP 1.3200
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
GBPUSD:
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair briefly broke above 1.3200 for the first time in six months, reaching fresh highs amid broad dollar weakness. The market reaction followed the tariff announcements made after U.S. markets closed on Wednesday.
The U.K. economic calendar is calm this week, but focus is on Friday’s NFP report, which could reveal the consequences of Trump’s trade policy and influence market sentiment.
The March ISM Services PMI in the U.S. fell to 50.8 — the lowest in nine months — marking one of the sharpest declines since the pandemic began. Business activity and consumer optimism had already been weakening before the tariffs and are unlikely to rebound quickly.
A 10% tariff on all imports took effect on April 5, with retaliatory measures starting April 9. Fitch Ratings forecasts slower U.S. GDP growth and notes the Fed may pause its monetary easing to gauge the tariffs’ impact on inflation and the labor market.
Forecast for April 7
USDJPY: SELL 145.80, SL 146.40, TP 144.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen weakened during Friday’s Asian session amid growing concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. retaliatory tariffs. Rising global trade uncertainty has led markets to reassess expectations for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes and weighing on the yen.
Nonetheless, signs of rising inflation in Japan — including higher consumer prices and wages — suggest the BoJ may continue its gradual tightening, potentially supporting the yen in the medium term, provided external conditions don’t worsen significantly.
The yen is also being supported by a broader decline in risk appetite, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions. Additionally, the weakening U.S. dollar, driven by recession fears and expectations that the Fed may resume cutting rates, further supports the yen.
USDJPY: SELL 145.80, SL 146.40, TP 144.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen weakened during Friday’s Asian session amid growing concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. retaliatory tariffs. Rising global trade uncertainty has led markets to reassess expectations for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes and weighing on the yen.
Nonetheless, signs of rising inflation in Japan — including higher consumer prices and wages — suggest the BoJ may continue its gradual tightening, potentially supporting the yen in the medium term, provided external conditions don’t worsen significantly.
The yen is also being supported by a broader decline in risk appetite, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions. Additionally, the weakening U.S. dollar, driven by recession fears and expectations that the Fed may resume cutting rates, further supports the yen.
Forecast for April 8
EURUSD: SELL 1.0910, SL 1.1000, TP 1.0825
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair bounced back to 1.0880 after dropping during the Asian session and has since stabilized around 1.0960, pausing its correction from the September high near 1.1100. The pair is little changed on the day amid mixed market sentiment.
The US dollar started the week on a weak note, despite Friday’s rebound, as recession fears and expectations of renewed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve weigh on the currency. Markets are pricing in four quarter-point cuts in 2025. This, combined with a flight to safety, is driving US Treasury yields lower and supporting the euro.
However, concerns over a potential escalation in the US-EU trade conflict are capping EUR/USD’s upside. The EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which could boost the dollar and limit gains for the pair.
Investors now await German industrial production, trade balance data, and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index, but focus remains on trade-related developments that could impact risk sentiment and drive demand for the US dollar.
EURUSD: SELL 1.0910, SL 1.1000, TP 1.0825
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair bounced back to 1.0880 after dropping during the Asian session and has since stabilized around 1.0960, pausing its correction from the September high near 1.1100. The pair is little changed on the day amid mixed market sentiment.
The US dollar started the week on a weak note, despite Friday’s rebound, as recession fears and expectations of renewed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve weigh on the currency. Markets are pricing in four quarter-point cuts in 2025. This, combined with a flight to safety, is driving US Treasury yields lower and supporting the euro.
However, concerns over a potential escalation in the US-EU trade conflict are capping EUR/USD’s upside. The EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which could boost the dollar and limit gains for the pair.
Investors now await German industrial production, trade balance data, and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index, but focus remains on trade-related developments that could impact risk sentiment and drive demand for the US dollar.
Forecast for April 8
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2850, SL 1.2960, TP 1.2715
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from a one-month low near 1.2830, seen during the Asian session, and stabilized around 1.2900, pausing its pullback from the six-month high. However, gains remain limited due to gloomy global economic prospects.
Rising trade tensions following new US tariffs have heightened fears of a global slowdown, dragging equity markets lower and increasing demand for the safe-haven dollar, which pressures the pound.
Still, investors are cautious about making aggressive dollar bets, as expectations grow that US economic weakness could push the Fed to resume rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in four such cuts in 2025, and falling US bond yields are undermining dollar strength.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2850, SL 1.2960, TP 1.2715
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from a one-month low near 1.2830, seen during the Asian session, and stabilized around 1.2900, pausing its pullback from the six-month high. However, gains remain limited due to gloomy global economic prospects.
Rising trade tensions following new US tariffs have heightened fears of a global slowdown, dragging equity markets lower and increasing demand for the safe-haven dollar, which pressures the pound.
Still, investors are cautious about making aggressive dollar bets, as expectations grow that US economic weakness could push the Fed to resume rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in four such cuts in 2025, and falling US bond yields are undermining dollar strength.
Forecast for April 8
USDJPY: BUY 147.00, SL 145.80, TP 148.15
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) began the week on a strong note amid rising concerns over a global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, diminished expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen. As a result, USD/JPY dropped back to a six-month low below 145.00 during the Asian session.
Nonetheless, rising inflation expectations in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ rate hikes in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may also limit any significant downside in the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s rebound, as Fed rate cut expectations and falling Treasury yields weigh on the greenback and cap any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.
USDJPY: BUY 147.00, SL 145.80, TP 148.15
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) began the week on a strong note amid rising concerns over a global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, diminished expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen. As a result, USD/JPY dropped back to a six-month low below 145.00 during the Asian session.
Nonetheless, rising inflation expectations in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ rate hikes in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may also limit any significant downside in the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s rebound, as Fed rate cut expectations and falling Treasury yields weigh on the greenback and cap any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.