USDJPY:
Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar for a second day.
Factors:
Concerns about a wider Middle East conflict due to potential war between Israel and Iran
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials
Signals from Bank of Japan about a possible rate hike
Current Price: Not provided in source
Trading Recommendation: Buy orders favored
Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar for a second day.
Factors:
Concerns about a wider Middle East conflict due to potential war between Israel and Iran
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials
Signals from Bank of Japan about a possible rate hike
Current Price: Not provided in source
Trading Recommendation: Buy orders favored
FreshForex Fundamental Analysis for April 10, 2024
EURUSD:
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (https://freshforex.com/traders/markets/)
21:00 MSK: USD - Release of FOMC Minutes
Forecast:
ECB expected to hold rates steady on April 11th.
Increasing chance of ECB easing policy in June.
US CPI for March expected to rise 0.3% MoM.
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, forecast to decline to 0.3% MoM from 0.4%.
Trading Recommendation:
Trade primarily with Buy orders at a price level of 1.0875.
Consider Sell orders at a price level of 1.0830.
EURUSD:
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (https://freshforex.com/traders/markets/)
21:00 MSK: USD - Release of FOMC Minutes
Forecast:
ECB expected to hold rates steady on April 11th.
Increasing chance of ECB easing policy in June.
US CPI for March expected to rise 0.3% MoM.
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, forecast to decline to 0.3% MoM from 0.4%.
Trading Recommendation:
Trade primarily with Buy orders at a price level of 1.0875.
Consider Sell orders at a price level of 1.0830.
GBPUSD:
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (https://freshforex.com/traders/markets/)
21:00 MSK: USD - Release of FOMC Minutes
Forecast:
Bank of England (BoE) expected to cut rates by 75 basis points (bps) this year.
Markets pricing in nearly a 57% chance of a Fed rate cut in June.
UK GDP data for February will be released on Friday.
Trading Recommendation:
Trade primarily with Sell orders from the current price level.
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (https://freshforex.com/traders/markets/)
21:00 MSK: USD - Release of FOMC Minutes
Forecast:
Bank of England (BoE) expected to cut rates by 75 basis points (bps) this year.
Markets pricing in nearly a 57% chance of a Fed rate cut in June.
UK GDP data for February will be released on Friday.
Trading Recommendation:
Trade primarily with Sell orders from the current price level.
USDJPY:
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (https://freshforex.com/traders/markets/)
21:00 MSK: USD - Release of FOMC Minutes
Forecast:
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated he won't change monetary policy solely to address exchange rate fluctuations.
Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% YoY in March.
Trading Recommendation:
Trade primarily with Buy orders from the current price level.
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (https://freshforex.com/traders/markets/)
21:00 MSK: USD - Release of FOMC Minutes
Forecast:
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated he won't change monetary policy solely to address exchange rate fluctuations.
Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% YoY in March.
Trading Recommendation:
Trade primarily with Buy orders from the current price level.
FreshForex Fundamental Analysis for April 11th, 2024:
EURUSD:
Events:
15:15 MSK: ECB Interest Rate Decision / Monetary Policy Statement
15:45 MSK: ECB Press Conference
Forecast:
Interest rates expected to remain at record lows.
Christine Lagarde may discuss inflation and potential June rate cut.
Divergence in interest rates between ECB and Fed could pressure EUR.
Recommendation:
Trade primarily Sell orders from current price levels.
EURUSD:
Events:
15:15 MSK: ECB Interest Rate Decision / Monetary Policy Statement
15:45 MSK: ECB Press Conference
Forecast:
Interest rates expected to remain at record lows.
Christine Lagarde may discuss inflation and potential June rate cut.
Divergence in interest rates between ECB and Fed could pressure EUR.
Recommendation:
Trade primarily Sell orders from current price levels.
GBPUSD:
Events:
19:30 MSK: Speech by BoE MPC Member Megan Greene
15:30 MSK: USD - Initial Jobless Claims / Producer Price Index
Forecast:
Markets expect Bank of England rate cut after June meeting.
"Dovish" comments from policymakers could pressure GBP.
Recommendation:
Trade primarily Buy orders at 1.2570 price level.
Consider Sell orders at 1.2530 price level.
Events:
19:30 MSK: Speech by BoE MPC Member Megan Greene
15:30 MSK: USD - Initial Jobless Claims / Producer Price Index
Forecast:
Markets expect Bank of England rate cut after June meeting.
"Dovish" comments from policymakers could pressure GBP.
Recommendation:
Trade primarily Buy orders at 1.2570 price level.
Consider Sell orders at 1.2530 price level.
USDJPY:
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Initial Jobless Claims / Producer Price Index
20:30 MSK: Speech by FOMC Member Raphael Bostic
Forecast:
Bank of Japan cautious on raising rates.
FOMC minutes show concern over inflation.
Strong US economy and inflation may delay Fed easing.
Recommendation:
Trade primarily Buy orders from current price levels.
Important:
This is a brief overview only. For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the full version on FreshForex website.
Remember, forex trading involves risk.
Events:
15:30 MSK: USD - Initial Jobless Claims / Producer Price Index
20:30 MSK: Speech by FOMC Member Raphael Bostic
Forecast:
Bank of Japan cautious on raising rates.
FOMC minutes show concern over inflation.
Strong US economy and inflation may delay Fed easing.
Recommendation:
Trade primarily Buy orders from current price levels.
Important:
This is a brief overview only. For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the full version on FreshForex website.
Remember, forex trading involves risk.
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0650 after recovering from Friday's low of 1.0622. The strategy suggests buy orders at the price level of 1.0685 and sell orders at 1.0630.
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair is strengthening around 1.2460 but remains below the November 2023 high. The recommendation is to place buy orders at the price level of 1.2490 and sell orders at 1.2445.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen continues to fall to new multi-year lows against the US dollar, driven by selling pressure and uncertain prospects for BoJ rate hikes. Trading buy orders from the current price level is advised.
Overall, the trend indicates USD strength against other currencies. It's important to note that any changes in geopolitical conditions or economic indicators could affect the market.
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair is strengthening around 1.2460 but remains below the November 2023 high. The recommendation is to place buy orders at the price level of 1.2490 and sell orders at 1.2445.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen continues to fall to new multi-year lows against the US dollar, driven by selling pressure and uncertain prospects for BoJ rate hikes. Trading buy orders from the current price level is advised.
Overall, the trend indicates USD strength against other currencies. It's important to note that any changes in geopolitical conditions or economic indicators could affect the market.
Today's Key Event:
5:00 PM GMT+3: USD - Existing Home Sales
Impact on EUR/USD:
Possible Fed Rate Cut in September: 71% (CME FedWatch Tool)
Growing Probability of ECB Rate Cut in June: (Comments from Nagel and Wasle)
Dovish ECB: Weighing on Euro and EUR/USD
Technical Analysis:
Buy Level: 1.0700
Stop-Loss: 101% below Buy Level
Double Deposit: When Trading with Bonus Funds
Recommendation:
Consider buying EUR/USD if it reaches 1.0700.
Use a stop-loss order 101% below the buy level.
Double your deposit if trading with bonus funds.
5:00 PM GMT+3: USD - Existing Home Sales
Impact on EUR/USD:
Possible Fed Rate Cut in September: 71% (CME FedWatch Tool)
Growing Probability of ECB Rate Cut in June: (Comments from Nagel and Wasle)
Dovish ECB: Weighing on Euro and EUR/USD
Technical Analysis:
Buy Level: 1.0700
Stop-Loss: 101% below Buy Level
Double Deposit: When Trading with Bonus Funds
Recommendation:
Consider buying EUR/USD if it reaches 1.0700.
Use a stop-loss order 101% below the buy level.
Double your deposit if trading with bonus funds.
FreshForex Fundamental Analysis, April 18, 2024
Key Event Today: 5:00 PM GMT+3: USD - Existing Home Sales
Impact on Currency Pairs:
GBP/USD:
Weaker UK Inflation Data: Raises expectations of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in coming months.
Falling CPI Inflation: 3.2% in March (lowest in 2.5 years).
Rate Cut Expectations: August or September (LSEG).
Strong US Retail Sales Data: Supports US Dollar.
Fed Easing Cycle Delayed: Limits GBP/USD upside.
Recommendation:
Buy: If price reaches 1.2480.
Sell: If price reaches 1.2440.
Key Event Today: 5:00 PM GMT+3: USD - Existing Home Sales
Impact on Currency Pairs:
GBP/USD:
Weaker UK Inflation Data: Raises expectations of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in coming months.
Falling CPI Inflation: 3.2% in March (lowest in 2.5 years).
Rate Cut Expectations: August or September (LSEG).
Strong US Retail Sales Data: Supports US Dollar.
Fed Easing Cycle Delayed: Limits GBP/USD upside.
Recommendation:
Buy: If price reaches 1.2480.
Sell: If price reaches 1.2440.
EURUSD: Ahead of updated Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in the US and Eurozone, traders are awaiting signals regarding further actions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States. It is expected that PMI data in the Eurozone and the US may impact the market. Recommendation: when rebounding from the level of 1.0650, it is recommended to accumulate positions for sale.
GBPUSD: The influence of inflation and economic prospects on the decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England regarding interest rates is a key factor for the British pound. The possibility of a rate cut in the UK before the US exerts pressure on GBP. Recommendation: trading predominantly with sell orders from the current price level.
USDJPY: The USDJPY currency pair is under pressure due to expectations of maintaining the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will wait until October to raise interest rates. Recommendation: trading in the range of 154.20-154.85 on rebounds from levels.
GBPUSD: The influence of inflation and economic prospects on the decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England regarding interest rates is a key factor for the British pound. The possibility of a rate cut in the UK before the US exerts pressure on GBP. Recommendation: trading predominantly with sell orders from the current price level.
USDJPY: The USDJPY currency pair is under pressure due to expectations of maintaining the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will wait until October to raise interest rates. Recommendation: trading in the range of 154.20-154.85 on rebounds from levels.
Today there are several events impacting currency pairs. Let's break down each of them:
1. EURUSD: The pair is holding above the 1.0700 level due to weaker-than-expected PMI data in the US for April, which is dampening the dollar's value. Investors will focus on the US durable goods orders data. The trading recommendation is to buy from the 1.0700 level.
2. GBPUSD: The pair is recovering to the 1.2450 level thanks to adverse PMI data in the US for April and the strengthening of the pound sterling following comments from the Bank of England's chief economist about the necessity of a "restraining" monetary policy. The trading recommendation is to buy from the 1.2450 level.
3. USDJPY: The Japanese yen continues to struggle for significant recovery and is hovering near multi-year lows against the dollar. Traders are awaiting decisions from the Bank of Japan and the publication of GDP and personal consumption expenditure price index data from the US. It's expected that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain large, potentially pressuring the yen. The previous trading recommendation stands, with trading in the range of 154.20-154.85 on rebounds from levels.
The overall trend indicates a weakening US dollar and strengthening of other currencies, particularly the euro and pound sterling, due to weak US data and central bank comments.
1. EURUSD: The pair is holding above the 1.0700 level due to weaker-than-expected PMI data in the US for April, which is dampening the dollar's value. Investors will focus on the US durable goods orders data. The trading recommendation is to buy from the 1.0700 level.
2. GBPUSD: The pair is recovering to the 1.2450 level thanks to adverse PMI data in the US for April and the strengthening of the pound sterling following comments from the Bank of England's chief economist about the necessity of a "restraining" monetary policy. The trading recommendation is to buy from the 1.2450 level.
3. USDJPY: The Japanese yen continues to struggle for significant recovery and is hovering near multi-year lows against the dollar. Traders are awaiting decisions from the Bank of Japan and the publication of GDP and personal consumption expenditure price index data from the US. It's expected that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain large, potentially pressuring the yen. The previous trading recommendation stands, with trading in the range of 154.20-154.85 on rebounds from levels.
The overall trend indicates a weakening US dollar and strengthening of other currencies, particularly the euro and pound sterling, due to weak US data and central bank comments.
1. EUR/USD: The pair is expected to remain around 1.0700. The main focus is on the release of the US GDP data for the first quarter. Stronger-than-expected data may support the US dollar.
2. GBP/USD: GBP/USD is expected to predominantly trade with buy orders from the current level. The Bank of England is likely to delay rate cuts until the next quarter.
3. USD/JPY: It is expected that the pair will continue to trade higher. The risk of intervention by Japanese authorities may deter bears from new positions.
2. GBP/USD: GBP/USD is expected to predominantly trade with buy orders from the current level. The Bank of England is likely to delay rate cuts until the next quarter.
3. USD/JPY: It is expected that the pair will continue to trade higher. The risk of intervention by Japanese authorities may deter bears from new positions.
EURUSD:
After weak GDP growth data in the US and an acceleration in inflation, the EURUSD pair came under pressure.
It's expected that the PCE price index in the US for March will remain unchanged, with a slight decrease in the yearly figure.
Trading recommendation: Preferably trade buy positions from current price levels.
GBPUSD:
The GBPUSD pair is also trading weakly despite weak GDP growth data in the US.
The PCE price index in the US remains in focus.
It's expected that the Bank of England will wait to lower the interest rate until the next quarter.
Trading recommendation: Preferably trade buy positions from the 1.2500 level.
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is near multi-year lows against the US dollar.
It's expected that the Bank of Japan will leave policy parameters unchanged.
Weak US economic growth data limits the upside potential for the USDJPY pair.
Trading recommendation: Preferably trade buy positions from current price levels.
Overall, there's some weakness in the US dollar, particularly after weak GDP growth data, but inflation expectations and price indicators remain in focus.
After weak GDP growth data in the US and an acceleration in inflation, the EURUSD pair came under pressure.
It's expected that the PCE price index in the US for March will remain unchanged, with a slight decrease in the yearly figure.
Trading recommendation: Preferably trade buy positions from current price levels.
GBPUSD:
The GBPUSD pair is also trading weakly despite weak GDP growth data in the US.
The PCE price index in the US remains in focus.
It's expected that the Bank of England will wait to lower the interest rate until the next quarter.
Trading recommendation: Preferably trade buy positions from the 1.2500 level.
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is near multi-year lows against the US dollar.
It's expected that the Bank of Japan will leave policy parameters unchanged.
Weak US economic growth data limits the upside potential for the USDJPY pair.
Trading recommendation: Preferably trade buy positions from current price levels.
Overall, there's some weakness in the US dollar, particularly after weak GDP growth data, but inflation expectations and price indicators remain in focus.
1. EUR/USD: It is expected that the markets will closely monitor inflation data from the eurozone and the decision of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) on interest rates. Trading recommendations include initiating sales if the price consolidates below 1.0690 and buying if it exceeds the level of 1.0730.
2. GBP/USD: The significance of the Fed's decision and the publication of US employment data on the dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate is emphasized. It is recommended to monitor the level of 1.2540 and trade from it on the rebound.
3. USD/JPY: The influence of the Fed's decision on the dynamics of the USD/JPY exchange rate is emphasized, as well as the importance of macroeconomic data from the US, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Trading recommendations include a preference for buying from current levels.
2. GBP/USD: The significance of the Fed's decision and the publication of US employment data on the dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate is emphasized. It is recommended to monitor the level of 1.2540 and trade from it on the rebound.
3. USD/JPY: The influence of the Fed's decision on the dynamics of the USD/JPY exchange rate is emphasized, as well as the importance of macroeconomic data from the US, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Trading recommendations include a preference for buying from current levels.
1. EURUSD:
- Tuesday: The pair dropped after an unexpected rise in US wages, raising concerns about inflation.
- Wednesday: The Fed's decision on rates is expected. Markets anticipate rates to remain unchanged but are closely watching for policy cues from the Fed.
2. GBPUSD:
- The pair is holding below 1.2490, with the USD strengthening ahead of the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged.
- The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but investors will pay attention to Powell's press conference.
3. USDJPY:
- The Japanese yen suffered losses against the USD due to the interest rate differential and increased demand for the dollar.
- The Fed is expected to maintain rates, but the overnight declines in US and Asian stock markets provide support for the safe-haven yen.
- Tuesday: The pair dropped after an unexpected rise in US wages, raising concerns about inflation.
- Wednesday: The Fed's decision on rates is expected. Markets anticipate rates to remain unchanged but are closely watching for policy cues from the Fed.
2. GBPUSD:
- The pair is holding below 1.2490, with the USD strengthening ahead of the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged.
- The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but investors will pay attention to Powell's press conference.
3. USDJPY:
- The Japanese yen suffered losses against the USD due to the interest rate differential and increased demand for the dollar.
- The Fed is expected to maintain rates, but the overnight declines in US and Asian stock markets provide support for the safe-haven yen.
1. EUR/USD: The pair's return to the upper boundary of recent consolidation and setting expectations for the NFP data indicate attention to risk in market sentiment. It is suggested to monitor the level of 1.0760 for possible purchases.
2. GBP/USD: In the context of the restrained message from the Federal Reserve and expectations for the NFP data, the GBP/USD pair is trading with a bias towards strengthening. Buying orders are recommended from the level of 1.2570.
3. USD/JPY: The strengthening of the Japanese yen and expectations for the NFP data influence the USD/JPY pair. Traders are forecasted to prefer selling on a rebound from the level of 152.60.
The overall trend indicates attention to the NFP data and anticipation of their impact on the market. Trading recommendations are based on assumptions about the market's reaction to this data.
2. GBP/USD: In the context of the restrained message from the Federal Reserve and expectations for the NFP data, the GBP/USD pair is trading with a bias towards strengthening. Buying orders are recommended from the level of 1.2570.
3. USD/JPY: The strengthening of the Japanese yen and expectations for the NFP data influence the USD/JPY pair. Traders are forecasted to prefer selling on a rebound from the level of 152.60.
The overall trend indicates attention to the NFP data and anticipation of their impact on the market. Trading recommendations are based on assumptions about the market's reaction to this data.
1. EUR/USD:
- EUR/USD is trading around 1.0765 and has been in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day.
- Weak US employment data has reduced expectations for an increase in the Fed's interest rate, putting pressure on the US dollar.
- The ECB is expected to lower interest rates in June, which also impacts the EUR/USD pair.
2. GBP/USD:
- GBP/USD is trading near 1.2550 and also showing positive momentum.
- Lower-than-expected US employment data is reducing expectations of a Fed rate hike, supporting the strengthening of the pound.
- The Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%, but investors anticipate rate cuts in September.
3. USD/JPY:
- USD/JPY has risen to around 153.55 due to moderate gains in the US dollar and comments by Janet Yellen regarding Japan.
- Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September following weak US employment data are putting pressure on the US dollar.
- Speculation about potential Japanese intervention to support the yen is emerging.
- EUR/USD is trading around 1.0765 and has been in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day.
- Weak US employment data has reduced expectations for an increase in the Fed's interest rate, putting pressure on the US dollar.
- The ECB is expected to lower interest rates in June, which also impacts the EUR/USD pair.
2. GBP/USD:
- GBP/USD is trading near 1.2550 and also showing positive momentum.
- Lower-than-expected US employment data is reducing expectations of a Fed rate hike, supporting the strengthening of the pound.
- The Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%, but investors anticipate rate cuts in September.
3. USD/JPY:
- USD/JPY has risen to around 153.55 due to moderate gains in the US dollar and comments by Janet Yellen regarding Japan.
- Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September following weak US employment data are putting pressure on the US dollar.
- Speculation about potential Japanese intervention to support the yen is emerging.
EURUSD
Key Event: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Current Price: 1.0900
Analysis: The EUR/USD pair rose above 1.0900 on Wednesday, extending its gains for the fourth consecutive week. Broad-based risk-off sentiment weighed on the US dollar (USD) after US CPI inflation fell more than investors expected. The pair is expected to trade higher towards 1.0905. Sell orders are recommended at 1.0870
Key Event: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Current Price: 1.0900
Analysis: The EUR/USD pair rose above 1.0900 on Wednesday, extending its gains for the fourth consecutive week. Broad-based risk-off sentiment weighed on the US dollar (USD) after US CPI inflation fell more than investors expected. The pair is expected to trade higher towards 1.0905. Sell orders are recommended at 1.0870
GBPUSD
Key Event: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Current Price: 1.2690
Analysis: The GBP/USD pair continued to rise near 1.2690 in early Asian trading on Thursday. The pair's gains were supported by a weakening dollar after the release of softer US CPI inflation data. UK labor data showed that labor market conditions worsened for the third consecutive month as the unemployment rate rose. However, Bank of England (BoE) policymakers remain concerned about high services inflation, as it could stall progress in the disinflation process. This has created uncertainty about the BoE's rate cut stance. US inflation eased slightly in April. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year in April, compared with 3.5% in March, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. Core CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 3.8% in the previous reading. Both figures were in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis, the CPI and core CPI rose 0.3% in April from the previous month. The softer inflation data raised the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in 2024, which led to a decline in the US dollar (USD) and created tailwinds for the GBP/USD pair. Additionally, final April retail sales data were unchanged from the previous 3% growth figure, missing market expectations of 0.4%. The pair is expected to trade higher towards 1.2710. Sell orders are recommended at 1.2660
Key Event: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Current Price: 1.2690
Analysis: The GBP/USD pair continued to rise near 1.2690 in early Asian trading on Thursday. The pair's gains were supported by a weakening dollar after the release of softer US CPI inflation data. UK labor data showed that labor market conditions worsened for the third consecutive month as the unemployment rate rose. However, Bank of England (BoE) policymakers remain concerned about high services inflation, as it could stall progress in the disinflation process. This has created uncertainty about the BoE's rate cut stance. US inflation eased slightly in April. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year in April, compared with 3.5% in March, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. Core CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 3.8% in the previous reading. Both figures were in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis, the CPI and core CPI rose 0.3% in April from the previous month. The softer inflation data raised the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in 2024, which led to a decline in the US dollar (USD) and created tailwinds for the GBP/USD pair. Additionally, final April retail sales data were unchanged from the previous 3% growth figure, missing market expectations of 0.4%. The pair is expected to trade higher towards 1.2710. Sell orders are recommended at 1.2660