⚡️🇺🇸🇪🇺🗣Markets don't trust central banks.
▪️Yesterday, after the Fed, the dollar began to strengthen, but it did not last long and today, after the ECB, everything went in the opposite direction, and the euro updated its local maximum, and the pound crossed the mark of 1.27 - that is, it is trading at this year's highs.
And it will continue to grow.
▪️ Bond yields also plummeted.
▪️Obviously, the bravado of the Fed and the ECB that they will continue to raise rates is of no interest to anyone, the market is playing a different game - an early recession and capitulation of Powell and Lagarde.
▪️Yesterday, after the Fed, the dollar began to strengthen, but it did not last long and today, after the ECB, everything went in the opposite direction, and the euro updated its local maximum, and the pound crossed the mark of 1.27 - that is, it is trading at this year's highs.
And it will continue to grow.
▪️ Bond yields also plummeted.
▪️Obviously, the bravado of the Fed and the ECB that they will continue to raise rates is of no interest to anyone, the market is playing a different game - an early recession and capitulation of Powell and Lagarde.
🇪🇺❌📡 European Commission bans Huawei and ZTE 5G equipment
⛔️Recommendation turns into a legislative ban for all EU countries . By the way, the recommendation previously applied only to Huawei, but now Brussels has added ZTE to the stop list. The EC argues that the equipment of the two Chinese companies poses a far greater threat to the cybersecurity of Europe than the hardware of any other manufacturers.
⛔️Recommendation turns into a legislative ban for all EU countries . By the way, the recommendation previously applied only to Huawei, but now Brussels has added ZTE to the stop list. The EC argues that the equipment of the two Chinese companies poses a far greater threat to the cybersecurity of Europe than the hardware of any other manufacturers.
🇺🇸🫳🏝 Kissinger: there will be more war over Taiwan than not
Blinken is heading to Beijing the other day, and the White House is setting an extremely low bar ahead of time. The communiqué about the trip is extremely dry, they urge not to wait for a diplomatic breakthrough. In general, this is unlikely to be analogous to the fateful journey of Kissinger himself.
🚨The Pentagon claims that the key goal of the modernization of the People's Liberation Army of China is the forceful solution of the Taiwan issue. An early window of opportunity will supposedly open as early as 2027. In such a compressed time frame, it is difficult to imagine a long-term normalization as under Nixon.
Blinken is heading to Beijing the other day, and the White House is setting an extremely low bar ahead of time. The communiqué about the trip is extremely dry, they urge not to wait for a diplomatic breakthrough. In general, this is unlikely to be analogous to the fateful journey of Kissinger himself.
🚨The Pentagon claims that the key goal of the modernization of the People's Liberation Army of China is the forceful solution of the Taiwan issue. An early window of opportunity will supposedly open as early as 2027. In such a compressed time frame, it is difficult to imagine a long-term normalization as under Nixon.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has officially applied for a Bitcoin ETF listing 💥
▪️ The SEC has so far rejected every bitcoin-ETF application it has received.
▪️ BlackRock manages $9.5 trillion in assets.
Those who have read our recent BTC Fundamental report - knows what we're talking about and why it might be so important.🤓 🔥
▪️ The SEC has so far rejected every bitcoin-ETF application it has received.
▪️ BlackRock manages $9.5 trillion in assets.
Those who have read our recent BTC Fundamental report - knows what we're talking about and why it might be so important.
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🇪🇺🏦 According to the IMF, the strong rise in consumer prices in the eurozone requires an increase in ECB interest rates and a sustained "tightening push".
Inflation in the region has eased from a peak of 10.6% in October, but is still more than three times the ECB's target of 2%. Tight financial conditions - fueled by an unprecedented 400bp rate hike cycle. from July - and the easing of supply restrictions mean that growth will continue to slow, and "convergence to the target is projected around mid-2025."
Economists believe that the chances of an ECB rate hike in September are growing
Inflation in the region has eased from a peak of 10.6% in October, but is still more than three times the ECB's target of 2%. Tight financial conditions - fueled by an unprecedented 400bp rate hike cycle. from July - and the easing of supply restrictions mean that growth will continue to slow, and "convergence to the target is projected around mid-2025."
Economists believe that the chances of an ECB rate hike in September are growing
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸The IMF urges the US to find a long-term solution to the country's debt ceiling - statement
🇺🇸🏦The US economy is still holding up, but showing signs of slowing down .
▪️Retail sales unexpectedly rose while factory output declined.
▪️Other data showed jobless claims remain at the highest level since 2021.
▪️Retail sales unexpectedly rose while factory output declined.
▪️Other data showed jobless claims remain at the highest level since 2021.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Traditionally, data on the balance sheet of the Fed and figures from the Ministry of Finance came out
▪️Let's start with the fact that the US Treasury took only $57.4 billion into its accounts in the week to June 14, increasing the funds on the accounts to $134.9 billion - and this is against the target of 425 billion at the end of the month.
▪️That tsunami of borrowings and the subsequent outflow of liquidity, which was written about almost every day, is not happening yet.
▪️The US Treasury Plans ~$115B Net Borrowing Next Week,
▪️Let's start with the fact that the US Treasury took only $57.4 billion into its accounts in the week to June 14, increasing the funds on the accounts to $134.9 billion - and this is against the target of 425 billion at the end of the month.
▪️That tsunami of borrowings and the subsequent outflow of liquidity, which was written about almost every day, is not happening yet.
▪️The US Treasury Plans ~$115B Net Borrowing Next Week,
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Bank of America:
The closer the Fed gets to the final level of the rate, the more the opinions of officials diverge. Based on the SEP report:
• 2 FOMC members see current rate level (5.25%) as appropriate to end the hike cycle
• 4 officials consider another 0.25% increase worthwhile
• the remaining 12 see at least two more increases of 0.25%
There is a possibility that Powell belongs to the first group, because. his press conference seemed much more dovish than the FOMC statement and SEP.
source: BofA Research, 06/14/2023
The closer the Fed gets to the final level of the rate, the more the opinions of officials diverge. Based on the SEP report:
• 2 FOMC members see current rate level (5.25%) as appropriate to end the hike cycle
• 4 officials consider another 0.25% increase worthwhile
• the remaining 12 see at least two more increases of 0.25%
There is a possibility that Powell belongs to the first group, because. his press conference seemed much more dovish than the FOMC statement and SEP.
source: BofA Research, 06/14/2023
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Incompetence or bargain hunting?
The head of the Fed admits: "we do not understand how inflation works", "the Phillips curve does not work", "in addition to demand, as it turned out, there is also supply."
Heading "confessions" directly. And it is not clear whether this is incompetence, because they lived in the same paradigm of the world economy and the equations somehow worked, or whether they understand everything and are trying to carry out controlled destruction.
So we will live to the point that they will think that raising rates in itself increases inflation due to rising costs and the rate should be reduced.
Well, as always, it doesn’t matter whether it’s stupidity or bargain hunting, but “who needs it” earns money.
The head of the Fed admits: "we do not understand how inflation works", "the Phillips curve does not work", "in addition to demand, as it turned out, there is also supply."
Heading "confessions" directly. And it is not clear whether this is incompetence, because they lived in the same paradigm of the world economy and the equations somehow worked, or whether they understand everything and are trying to carry out controlled destruction.
So we will live to the point that they will think that raising rates in itself increases inflation due to rising costs and the rate should be reduced.
Well, as always, it doesn’t matter whether it’s stupidity or bargain hunting, but “who needs it” earns money.
🏦🇺🇸 Goldman believes that the markets are too optimistic about the rate of inflation reduction in the US .
▪️Strategists monitor the impact of energy prices, economic growth rates.
▪️FOMC remains concerned about constant price increases.
▪️Strategists monitor the impact of energy prices, economic growth rates.
▪️FOMC remains concerned about constant price increases.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 Here is all the Fed's inflation forecasts over the past 2 years.
▪️it is perfectly clear how the Fed, on the one hand, is trying to make verbal interventions, on the other hand, with its complete misunderstanding, it is wishful thinking.
▪️Keep this chart for yourself and look at it every time you read or hear the statements of any head of the monetary authorities of any country and remember - you are either being deceived, or they themselves do not understand s**t.
▪️it is perfectly clear how the Fed, on the one hand, is trying to make verbal interventions, on the other hand, with its complete misunderstanding, it is wishful thinking.
▪️Keep this chart for yourself and look at it every time you read or hear the statements of any head of the monetary authorities of any country and remember - you are either being deceived, or they themselves do not understand s**t.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️-👆For investors again comes a difficult period. Gotta choose
✔️The fact is that the expected return of the main asset classes equaled last week, and now it is the same for treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds and the S&P 500 index.
✔️JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast that portfolios, including sovereign and pension fund portfolios, will be reallocated to bonds to meet allocation targets, the largest rebalancing to bonds since Q4 2021 .
✔️The fact is that the expected return of the main asset classes equaled last week, and now it is the same for treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds and the S&P 500 index.
✔️JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast that portfolios, including sovereign and pension fund portfolios, will be reallocated to bonds to meet allocation targets, the largest rebalancing to bonds since Q4 2021 .
🏦🇨🇳Goldman cut China's GDP forecast, citing limited opportunities to stimulate the economy .
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- who cut his growth forecast for China's economy this year to 5.4% from 6% -- says Beijing is now more restrained due to a declining population, elevated levels of debt and President Xi Jinping's call to curb real estate speculation. This means that any stimulus package will be smaller than in previous downturns, when the authorities increased investment in infrastructure and real estate to stimulate growth.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- who cut his growth forecast for China's economy this year to 5.4% from 6% -- says Beijing is now more restrained due to a declining population, elevated levels of debt and President Xi Jinping's call to curb real estate speculation. This means that any stimulus package will be smaller than in previous downturns, when the authorities increased investment in infrastructure and real estate to stimulate growth.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇬🇧 UK regulator canceled the license of a subsidiary of the Binance crypto exchange! Source
▪️ Binance Markets Limited is de-registered by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) at the request of the company.
▪️ Binance Markets Limited is de-registered by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) at the request of the company.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Goldman Sachs:
The main reason for the increase in the Fed's forecast for the final rate was the slow decline in core inflation this year. Another reason is that officials have become less worried about the risks associated with problems in the banking sector than at previous meetings, and we believe that these risks have indeed decreased.
source: GS Research, 06/14/2023
The main reason for the increase in the Fed's forecast for the final rate was the slow decline in core inflation this year. Another reason is that officials have become less worried about the risks associated with problems in the banking sector than at previous meetings, and we believe that these risks have indeed decreased.
source: GS Research, 06/14/2023
🦅🪙😱 Centralization of decentralization? BlackRock creates an ETF for bitcoin - Part II
❗️The free crypto community screamed about the danger. The world's largest investment fund is formally considered private, but in fact it is not. BlackRock has always helped the US authorities to sweep a variety of crises under the rug - including the last one, with regional banks. And now the tentacles of power are likely to reach the number 1 cryptocurrency, the whole point of which is that there is no single center of control.
🎭So far, the game is playing brilliantly. BlackRock's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already been filed. Coinbase is announced as an official partner. Yes, the same crypto exchange that the SEC is now attacking, calling it a “casino”.
Changpeng Zhao is somehow hinted that it is better to give in to BlackRock than to be outlawed and left with nothing at all.
🕵️♂️The ubiquitous insiders claim to have seen the papers that the investment fund filed with the SEC. In accordance with these documents, BlackRock in the event of a hard fork will have the right to create a copy of Bitcoin - and recognize it as canonical.
🤜🏻 That is, in the second act of this dystopian play , bitcoin is literally squeezed out of the crypto community, transferred under the indirect control of the US authorities, and Coinbase is thrown out as unnecessary.
Mr. Zhao will, at best, receive personal immunity for agreeing to support this monstrous scam from the very beginning.
❗️The free crypto community screamed about the danger. The world's largest investment fund is formally considered private, but in fact it is not. BlackRock has always helped the US authorities to sweep a variety of crises under the rug - including the last one, with regional banks. And now the tentacles of power are likely to reach the number 1 cryptocurrency, the whole point of which is that there is no single center of control.
🎭So far, the game is playing brilliantly. BlackRock's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already been filed. Coinbase is announced as an official partner. Yes, the same crypto exchange that the SEC is now attacking, calling it a “casino”.
Changpeng Zhao is somehow hinted that it is better to give in to BlackRock than to be outlawed and left with nothing at all.
🕵️♂️The ubiquitous insiders claim to have seen the papers that the investment fund filed with the SEC. In accordance with these documents, BlackRock in the event of a hard fork will have the right to create a copy of Bitcoin - and recognize it as canonical.
🤜🏻 That is, in the second act of this dystopian play , bitcoin is literally squeezed out of the crypto community, transferred under the indirect control of the US authorities, and Coinbase is thrown out as unnecessary.
Mr. Zhao will, at best, receive personal immunity for agreeing to support this monstrous scam from the very beginning.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Wall Street buys more Treasury bills, parks less at the Fed .
Central bank reverse repo plunges below $2 trillion for the first time in more than a year
▪️Money market funds are reducing reverse repo transactions with the Fed and buying treasuries, that is, the battle to raise the national debt ceiling has not undermined the credibility of the system.
▪️Analysts say that, on the contrary, funds are likely to step up to buy new Treasury bills issued by the government, which needs to borrow about $1 trillion before the end of the year.
Central bank reverse repo plunges below $2 trillion for the first time in more than a year
▪️Money market funds are reducing reverse repo transactions with the Fed and buying treasuries, that is, the battle to raise the national debt ceiling has not undermined the credibility of the system.
▪️Analysts say that, on the contrary, funds are likely to step up to buy new Treasury bills issued by the government, which needs to borrow about $1 trillion before the end of the year.
WSJ
Wall Street Buys More T-Bills, Parks Less at Fed
The central bank’s reverse repo fell below $2 trillion for the first time in more than a year.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Bitcoins are flowing away from exchanges (mainly from derivatives) at a very fast pace. Investors are preparing for regulation way?
Either some exchange should close, or there was expiration today. In general, incomprehensible mystical events occur.
There was an understanding on how BlackRock wants to solve the problem with the previous SEC claims on the risks of price manipulation (this was the formal reason for the refusal of registration):
On page 36of filing 19b-4 , it states that to mitigate the effects of market manipulation, the Nasdaq exchange (where the proposed ETF will be listed) will be engaged to enter into a joint oversight agreement with the operator of the bitcoin spot trading platform.
Joint supervision agreements allow the exchange of information on market trading activities, clearing activities and customer identification, which minimizes the possibility of market manipulation.
Either some exchange should close, or there was expiration today. In general, incomprehensible mystical events occur.
There was an understanding on how BlackRock wants to solve the problem with the previous SEC claims on the risks of price manipulation (this was the formal reason for the refusal of registration):
On page 36of filing 19b-4 , it states that to mitigate the effects of market manipulation, the Nasdaq exchange (where the proposed ETF will be listed) will be engaged to enter into a joint oversight agreement with the operator of the bitcoin spot trading platform.
Joint supervision agreements allow the exchange of information on market trading activities, clearing activities and customer identification, which minimizes the possibility of market manipulation.