⚡️🇺🇸-👆Guys, do you understand something?
▪️The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to alter course with its rate-hiking cycle, CNBC reported on Sunday, citing IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
▪️Reuters - US hotel developers run out of cash as construction lending dries up.
Tighter lending standards from regional banks are making it harder for U.S. hotel developers to secure funding, slowing construction of new hotels at a time Americans' appetite for travel is ripe.
▪️The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to alter course with its rate-hiking cycle, CNBC reported on Sunday, citing IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
▪️Reuters - US hotel developers run out of cash as construction lending dries up.
Tighter lending standards from regional banks are making it harder for U.S. hotel developers to secure funding, slowing construction of new hotels at a time Americans' appetite for travel is ripe.
⚡️🇪🇺🗣👆European Central Bank interest rate hikes could take longer than usual to pass through to the real economy and their impact may be more muted than usual, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in a newspaper interview.
"Given the current shortage of workers, one could expect monetary policy transmission to be weaker than usual," Belgian newspaper De Tijd quoted her as saying in an article published on Wednesday.
"Given the current shortage of workers, one could expect monetary policy transmission to be weaker than usual," Belgian newspaper De Tijd quoted her as saying in an article published on Wednesday.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣The U.S. trade deficit widened by the most in eight years in April
▪️The trade deficit jumped 23.0% to $74.6 billion.
▪️Goods imports rose 2.0% to $263.2 billion in April, boosted by motor vehicles, parts and engines.
▪️Exports of goods plunged 5.3%, the most in three years, to $167.1 billion. That was the lowest level since February 2022.
▪️Overall exports fell 3.6%, the largest drop in three years, to $249.0 billion. That was the lowest level since March 2022. The services surplus was the highest since March 2021.
▪️The nation's goods trade deficit with China widened to $24.2 billion in April from $22.6 billion in March.
▪️The trade deficit jumped 23.0% to $74.6 billion.
▪️Goods imports rose 2.0% to $263.2 billion in April, boosted by motor vehicles, parts and engines.
▪️Exports of goods plunged 5.3%, the most in three years, to $167.1 billion. That was the lowest level since February 2022.
▪️Overall exports fell 3.6%, the largest drop in three years, to $249.0 billion. That was the lowest level since March 2022. The services surplus was the highest since March 2021.
▪️The nation's goods trade deficit with China widened to $24.2 billion in April from $22.6 billion in March.
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⚡️🔊👆Central Bankers Are Absolutely Buying Gold: Crowell
“We saw record holdings from central banks increase significantly in 2022 and will continue into this year.” Ruth Crowell, chief executive officer at the London Bullion Market Association
“We saw record holdings from central banks increase significantly in 2022 and will continue into this year.” Ruth Crowell, chief executive officer at the London Bullion Market Association
⚡️🇺🇸☢️👆Dear crypto lovers. As we can see, the conspiracy theory that any problems with the exchanges cause a decrease in the potential supply of bitcoin on the exchanges in anticipation of the upcoming QE is valid.
More precisely, the theory is precisely that this is done specifically so that the cue balls leave the exchanges and are not used for short.
A couple more lawsuits and it will be possible to vacuum the entire remaining volume for some 10 billion dollars.
More precisely, the theory is precisely that this is done specifically so that the cue balls leave the exchanges and are not used for short.
A couple more lawsuits and it will be possible to vacuum the entire remaining volume for some 10 billion dollars.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸In 2008 and 2020, the Fed provided liquidity to the overnight market when banks stopped lending to each other. This delayed the crisis. Only when the Fed took liquidity did the system collapse. This gives the Fed complete control over when the crash occurs.
Fed interventions to bail out the banking sector now exceed 2020 right before the crisis hit. The Fed's recently created Other Lending Facility and Bank Term Financing program totaling $278 billion is over $255 in 2020 and $133 in 2008. The spread adjusted for high yield options looks the same
When the Fed is ready to crash the markets, we will see a -20% to -50% reduction in the two credit lines created in March 2023 under the Fed's Term Financing Facility (BTFP) and Other Credit Extensions (OCE). liquidity, which is usually a repurchase agreement (REPO)
Fed interventions to bail out the banking sector now exceed 2020 right before the crisis hit. The Fed's recently created Other Lending Facility and Bank Term Financing program totaling $278 billion is over $255 in 2020 and $133 in 2008. The spread adjusted for high yield options looks the same
When the Fed is ready to crash the markets, we will see a -20% to -50% reduction in the two credit lines created in March 2023 under the Fed's Term Financing Facility (BTFP) and Other Credit Extensions (OCE). liquidity, which is usually a repurchase agreement (REPO)
🏦🇺🇸Bloomberg - The US budget deficit for eight months of the fiscal year increased by 2.7 times.
The US budget surplus in May amounted to $240.348 billion, which is 3.6 times higher than the figure for the same month last year ($66.223 billion), the Treasury Department said.
▪️Budget revenues fell by 21% to $307.487 billion.
▪️Spending increased by 20.3% to $547.835 billion. The main increase was in the Medicare health insurance program and in the social insurance system.
The US budget surplus in May amounted to $240.348 billion, which is 3.6 times higher than the figure for the same month last year ($66.223 billion), the Treasury Department said.
▪️Budget revenues fell by 21% to $307.487 billion.
▪️Spending increased by 20.3% to $547.835 billion. The main increase was in the Medicare health insurance program and in the social insurance system.
🇺🇸 US inflation fell to 4%
💸 United States consumer price inflation eased to 4.0 percent in May 2023, the lowest level since March 2021.
This data is slightly below market expectations of 4.1 percent, due to lower energy prices.
💰Furthermore, core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities such as food and energy, fell to 5.3 percent, its lowest level since November 2021, raising expectations that the Fed may pause at its next meeting.
💸 United States consumer price inflation eased to 4.0 percent in May 2023, the lowest level since March 2021.
This data is slightly below market expectations of 4.1 percent, due to lower energy prices.
💰Furthermore, core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities such as food and energy, fell to 5.3 percent, its lowest level since November 2021, raising expectations that the Fed may pause at its next meeting.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣👆Meanwhile, Citigroup warns that bond traders are misinterpreting inflation
✔️Like five months ago, the market comes from two consecutive CPI data below the forecast. However, inflation expectations over the next few years are now higher than they were at the beginning of 2023 despite tighter financial conditions, lower annual inflation and higher unemployment and benefits claims.
The bank's expert notes that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should fall significantly below 0.4% m/m in May for the first time since November , contrary to economists' forecasts that the level will remain stable
✔️Like five months ago, the market comes from two consecutive CPI data below the forecast. However, inflation expectations over the next few years are now higher than they were at the beginning of 2023 despite tighter financial conditions, lower annual inflation and higher unemployment and benefits claims.
The bank's expert notes that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should fall significantly below 0.4% m/m in May for the first time since November , contrary to economists' forecasts that the level will remain stable
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸📈 As we've said in the weekly report - there is a boom in the construction of factories in the USA. Biden's plan to return production to the country is working.
Now in the States every day they build 6 full-fledged factories.
The truth is, for some reason, the US manufacturing PMI has been in the as* for a long time. That is, with one hand we treat, with the other we cripple. Apparently, if there was no program for dragging enterprises from Taiwan and Europe, then the release of prom. production in the US would literally collapse.
Well, and most importantly, there is no workforce for all these new enterprises. U.S. wages are still very high (and hence high inflation) because of which Powell suffers every day, who cannot lower the rate.
As a result, the cost of servicing the public debt pyramid is growing every month and has already overtaken the defense budget.
Now in the States every day they build 6 full-fledged factories.
The truth is, for some reason, the US manufacturing PMI has been in the as* for a long time. That is, with one hand we treat, with the other we cripple. Apparently, if there was no program for dragging enterprises from Taiwan and Europe, then the release of prom. production in the US would literally collapse.
Well, and most importantly, there is no workforce for all these new enterprises. U.S. wages are still very high (and hence high inflation) because of which Powell suffers every day, who cannot lower the rate.
As a result, the cost of servicing the public debt pyramid is growing every month and has already overtaken the defense budget.
🇬🇧 UK labor market data sent two-year government bond prices back to 2008 levels.
▪️UK government bonds fell today to levels last seen during the global financial crisis
▪️Traders are betting that the Bank of England may have to hike rates to 6% after data showed that wages rose faster than expected in April.
▪️UK government bonds fell today to levels last seen during the global financial crisis
▪️Traders are betting that the Bank of England may have to hike rates to 6% after data showed that wages rose faster than expected in April.
🫴💶😱 EU banks must return to the ECB about 500 billion euros in 1 day
🦠The echo of the European crisis of the 2010s, multiplied by covid, sounded. Even under Draghi, the TLTRO long-term financing mechanism was invented, which was then actively used during the pandemic. And now European banks will have to return 476.8 billion euros to the ECB on June 28.
🧨This, of course, is not the entire amount, but the next largest payment. Experts are already saying that many will not survive such a load, and name the standard suspects from 2010: Italian and Greek banks. It is even strange that Spain and Portugal are not mentioned.
🌀The most obvious way out for those who lack liquidity is to attract debt securities in the market. But participants in this market are also not foolish, and may demand a huge risk premium. A Kafkaesque solution is brewing: the ECB will have to launch an anti-crisis mechanism to finance those who do not have enough funds to pay off payments under the previous ECB anti-crisis mechanism.
🦠The echo of the European crisis of the 2010s, multiplied by covid, sounded. Even under Draghi, the TLTRO long-term financing mechanism was invented, which was then actively used during the pandemic. And now European banks will have to return 476.8 billion euros to the ECB on June 28.
🧨This, of course, is not the entire amount, but the next largest payment. Experts are already saying that many will not survive such a load, and name the standard suspects from 2010: Italian and Greek banks. It is even strange that Spain and Portugal are not mentioned.
🌀The most obvious way out for those who lack liquidity is to attract debt securities in the market. But participants in this market are also not foolish, and may demand a huge risk premium. A Kafkaesque solution is brewing: the ECB will have to launch an anti-crisis mechanism to finance those who do not have enough funds to pay off payments under the previous ECB anti-crisis mechanism.
🇺🇸🏦Jerome Powell said that after the pause, at least two more rate hikes are expected .
▪️ Officials raise forecasts for rates, growth, core inflation.
▪️The Fed is signaling that the break in rate hikes is likely to be short-lived
▪️ Officials raise forecasts for rates, growth, core inflation.
▪️The Fed is signaling that the break in rate hikes is likely to be short-lived
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸POWELL: Fed WILL NOT FUND US DEBT.😎🔥
▪️ The Fed's forecasts for the last 2 years have been "wrong".🔥
▪️ WE HAVE TO REDUCE INFLATION.
▪️ I do not expect a reduction in the reverse repo rate.
▪️ A COOLING job market could help a soft landing in the US economy.
▪️ The Fed WILL NOT fund the US government debt.🔥
▪️ Price stability is the backbone of the US economy.
▪️ RATE REDUCTION this year is inappropriate.🔥
▪️ It may take 2 YEARS for the Fed to cut the rate.
▪️ There is talk about the admissibility of a rate cut in a couple of years.
▪️ NO Fed member sees the possibility of a rate cut in 2023.
▪️ WE SEE NO progress in lowering core inflation.🔥
▪️ Do not wait for the fall of salary/c/. We expect slower growth.
▪️ The Fed keeps a close eye on the banking system.
▪️ The Fed's forecasts for the last 2 years have been "wrong".🔥
▪️ WE HAVE TO REDUCE INFLATION.
▪️ I do not expect a reduction in the reverse repo rate.
▪️ A COOLING job market could help a soft landing in the US economy.
▪️ The Fed WILL NOT fund the US government debt.🔥
▪️ Price stability is the backbone of the US economy.
▪️ RATE REDUCTION this year is inappropriate.🔥
▪️ It may take 2 YEARS for the Fed to cut the rate.
▪️ There is talk about the admissibility of a rate cut in a couple of years.
▪️ NO Fed member sees the possibility of a rate cut in 2023.
▪️ WE SEE NO progress in lowering core inflation.🔥
▪️ Do not wait for the fall of salary/c/. We expect slower growth.
▪️ The Fed keeps a close eye on the banking system.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸And finally, to close topic of yesterday's Fed meeting - Fed cover letter
▪️Fed rate ceiling expected at 5.5%-5.75% by the end of 2023.🔥
▪️ Moderate economic growth.
▪️Keeping rates at the same level allows you to assess the impact of monetary policy (lag).
▪️An additional rate increase is possible!🔥
▪️Expected rate cuts in 2024.
▪️The Fed's balance sheet will continue to shrink as part of the previously announced plan.🔥
▪️Fed rate ceiling expected at 5.5%-5.75% by the end of 2023.🔥
▪️ Moderate economic growth.
▪️Keeping rates at the same level allows you to assess the impact of monetary policy (lag).
▪️An additional rate increase is possible!🔥
▪️Expected rate cuts in 2024.
▪️The Fed's balance sheet will continue to shrink as part of the previously announced plan.🔥
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