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ForexPeaceArmy.com

Analysis of hot economical, political global events, rumors and humor
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸The fourth largest American bank Wells Fargo has limited cash withdrawals to $1,000 due to "emergency conditions and in order to serve all customers" - write many on social networks

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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸 US macro data: Initial Jobless Claims

FACT: 261K
FORECAST: 235K
PREV: 233K

Highest level in 1.5 years
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸🏦 JPMorgan frightening: Growing gap between stocks and bonds threatens a 20% drop for stocks.
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🇺🇸🇬🇧U.S. President Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed the Atlantic Declaration, a first-of-its-kind economic partnership on AI and other economic and trade relations .

And the next one -

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The United States intends to impose certain restrictions on the investment of American capital in the Chinese economy, said US President Joe Biden, speaking on Thursday at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Start smelling like AUKUS... It all fits.
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Fed Bank Bailout Facility Breaks $100 Billion For First Time, Money Market Inflows Soar Again

✔️Unfortunately, things are not going well for the Fed - money market funds received $36.6 billion inflows to a new all-time high of $5.457 trillion . This is the 7th week of influx in a row (and the 12th of the last 13 weeks)...
....👆Which begs the question, if everything is so great - regional bank stocks are at 3-month highs - why would they need $100 billion in debt from the Fed?
The Fed hasn't been sitting idly by - its balance sheet rose unexpectedly by $3.47 billion - the biggest increase since the SVB bailout...

As for QT, the Fed sold assets for a very modest $2.4 billion

By the way, during the last press conference, Powell noted that they can adjust QT depending on the situation. However, it cannot be said that the published figures should somehow radically influence the market.
⚡️🇺🇸-👆Guys, do you understand something?

▪️The International Monetary Fund
has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to alter course with its rate-hiking cycle, CNBC reported on Sunday, citing IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

▪️Reuters - US hotel developers run out of cash as construction lending dries up.

Tighter lending standards from regional banks are making it harder for U.S. hotel developers to secure funding, slowing construction of new hotels at a time Americans' appetite for travel is ripe.
⚡️🇪🇺🗣👆European Central Bank interest rate hikes could take longer than usual to pass through to the real economy and their impact may be more muted than usual, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in a newspaper interview.

"Given the current shortage of workers, one could expect monetary policy transmission to be weaker than usual," Belgian newspaper De Tijd quoted her as saying in an article published on Wednesday.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣The U.S. trade deficit widened by the most in eight years in April

▪️The trade deficit jumped 23.0% to $74.6 billion.

▪️Goods imports rose 2.0% to $263.2 billion in April, boosted by motor vehicles, parts and engines.

▪️Exports of goods plunged 5.3%, the most in three years, to $167.1 billion. That was the lowest level since February 2022.

▪️Overall exports fell 3.6%, the largest drop in three years, to $249.0 billion. That was the lowest level since March 2022. The services surplus was the highest since March 2021.

▪️The nation's goods trade deficit with China widened to $24.2 billion in April from $22.6 billion in March.
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⚡️🔊👆Central Bankers Are Absolutely Buying Gold: Crowell

“We saw record holdings from central banks increase significantly in 2022 and will continue into this year.” Ruth Crowell, chief executive officer at the London Bullion Market Association
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 Cryptocurrencies market snapshot - no comments...
⚡️🇺🇸☢️👆Dear crypto lovers. As we can see, the conspiracy theory that any problems with the exchanges cause a decrease in the potential supply of bitcoin on the exchanges in anticipation of the upcoming QE is valid.

More precisely, the theory is precisely that this is done specifically so that the cue balls leave the exchanges and are not used for short.

A couple more lawsuits and it will be possible to vacuum the entire remaining volume for some 10 billion dollars.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸In 2008 and 2020, the Fed provided liquidity to the overnight market when banks stopped lending to each other. This delayed the crisis. Only when the Fed took liquidity did the system collapse. This gives the Fed complete control over when the crash occurs.

Fed interventions to bail out the banking sector now exceed 2020 right before the crisis hit. The Fed's recently created Other Lending Facility and Bank Term Financing program totaling $278 billion is over $255 in 2020 and $133 in 2008. The spread adjusted for high yield options looks the same

When the Fed is ready to crash the markets, we will see a -20% to -50% reduction in the two credit lines created in March 2023 under the Fed's Term Financing Facility (BTFP) and Other Credit Extensions (OCE). liquidity, which is usually a repurchase agreement (REPO)
🏦🇺🇸Bloomberg - The US budget deficit for eight months of the fiscal year increased by 2.7 times.

The US budget surplus in May amounted to $240.348 billion, which is 3.6 times higher than the figure for the same month last year ($66.223 billion), the Treasury Department said.
▪️Budget revenues fell by 21% to $307.487 billion.
▪️Spending increased by 20.3% to $547.835 billion. The main increase was in the Medicare health insurance program and in the social insurance system.
🇺🇸 US inflation fell to 4%

💸 United States consumer price inflation eased to 4.0 percent in May 2023, the lowest level since March 2021.

This data is slightly below market expectations of 4.1 percent, due to lower energy prices.

💰Furthermore, core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities such as food and energy, fell to 5.3 percent, its lowest level since November 2021, raising expectations that the Fed may pause at its next meeting.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣👆Meanwhile, Citigroup warns that bond traders are misinterpreting inflation

✔️Like five months ago, the market comes from two consecutive CPI data below the forecast. However, inflation expectations over the next few years are now higher than they were at the beginning of 2023 despite tighter financial conditions, lower annual inflation and higher unemployment and benefits claims.

The bank's expert notes that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should fall significantly below 0.4% m/m in May for the first time since November , contrary to economists' forecasts that the level will remain stable
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸📈 As we've said in the weekly report - there is a boom in the construction of factories in the USA. Biden's plan to return production to the country is working.

Now in the States every day they build 6 full-fledged factories.

The truth is, for some reason, the US manufacturing PMI has been in the as* for a long time. That is, with one hand we treat, with the other we cripple. Apparently, if there was no program for dragging enterprises from Taiwan and Europe, then the release of prom. production in the US would literally collapse.

Well, and most importantly, there is no workforce for all these new enterprises. U.S. wages are still very high (and hence high inflation) because of which Powell suffers every day, who cannot lower the rate.

As a result, the cost of servicing the public debt pyramid is growing every month and has already overtaken the defense budget.
🇬🇧 UK labor market data sent two-year government bond prices back to 2008 levels.

▪️UK government bonds fell today to levels last seen during the global financial crisis

▪️Traders are betting that the Bank of England may have to hike rates to 6% after data showed that wages rose faster than expected in April.