Historical Patterns: The VIX Is Ready for a Sharp Reversal
The VIX volatility index has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years.
The VIX fell about 19% last week, the biggest drop this year.
✅Thus, after the VIX fell more than 34% below its 200-DMA . Such a significant divergence usually means a bottom.
The story goes: after dropping below or above the 200-day moving average by more than 30%, then over the course of 20 trading days, the VIX averaged a 17% jump. More importantly, the index was higher after 20 days in 42 out of 44 cases, if the deviation from the 200-day was at least 30 percentage points.
❗️In addition, seasonality also favors the growth of the VIX: the volatility index has increased 80% of the time in June over the past 10 years.
The VIX volatility index has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years.
The VIX fell about 19% last week, the biggest drop this year.
✅Thus, after the VIX fell more than 34% below its 200-DMA . Such a significant divergence usually means a bottom.
The story goes: after dropping below or above the 200-day moving average by more than 30%, then over the course of 20 trading days, the VIX averaged a 17% jump. More importantly, the index was higher after 20 days in 42 out of 44 cases, if the deviation from the 200-day was at least 30 percentage points.
❗️In addition, seasonality also favors the growth of the VIX: the volatility index has increased 80% of the time in June over the past 10 years.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Market nightmares on the Internet
✔️One of the traders notes that unlike the S&P 500 index, led by the largest technology stocks, its weighted counterpart Equal Weight Index S&P - the equilibrium index, draws the so-called death cross - the intersection of averages, which in the past almost always provoked a powerful market decline.
✔️One of the traders notes that unlike the S&P 500 index, led by the largest technology stocks, its weighted counterpart Equal Weight Index S&P - the equilibrium index, draws the so-called death cross - the intersection of averages, which in the past almost always provoked a powerful market decline.
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 After yesterday's BTC collapse here comes the meme 🤣
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Today the SEC attacked another stock exchange - COINBASE . Now they are suing her.
✔️The day before, Binance became a victim.
The US authorities are doing everything to somehow protect the dollar and maintain control over the global financial system.
✔️The day before, Binance became a victim.
The US authorities are doing everything to somehow protect the dollar and maintain control over the global financial system.
🇨🇳 China's exports fell by 7.5% in May, imports fell by 4.5%
✔️The volume of China's exports in May decreased by 7.5% in annual terms and amounted to $283.5 billion, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement.
✔️This is the first decrease in the indicator in the last three months. Analysts, on average, had forecast a decline of just 0.4%, according to Trading Economics data.
✔️Imports decreased by 4.5% to $217.69 billion. At the same time, the indicator fell by
results for the third month in a row.
✅Experts expected a sharper drop in imports - by 8%.
✔️The volume of China's exports in May decreased by 7.5% in annual terms and amounted to $283.5 billion, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement.
✔️This is the first decrease in the indicator in the last three months. Analysts, on average, had forecast a decline of just 0.4%, according to Trading Economics data.
✔️Imports decreased by 4.5% to $217.69 billion. At the same time, the indicator fell by
results for the third month in a row.
✅Experts expected a sharper drop in imports - by 8%.
⚡️☢️🇺🇸-🔊Fed Easing Cycle To Start Multi-Year Dollar Bearish Trend END THIS YEAR - ING
Weaker dollar could lead to lower U.S. rate exports around the world
◾️Our basic view in the currency markets is that the dollar will enter a cyclical bear trend in the coming months.
◾️The prerequisite for this is tightening of credit conditions in the US, which will complement the tightening of monetary policy and lead to the long-awaited disinflation in the US.
◾️If the Fed is able to sharply cut rates later this year, we are convinced that the dollar will trade lower. In this scenario, in our opinion, the EUR/USD pair should be somewhere around 1.15+ by the end of the year, and the USD/JPY pair should be below 130.
◾️The weakening of the US dollar should be a positive factor for global growth. Many countries, especially those with emerging markets, are forced to support local currencies with higher rates.
A reversal in the dollar's broad trend should give them some breathing room and possibly attract more portfolio positives to emerging markets than have been seen since the end of 2020.
Weaker dollar could lead to lower U.S. rate exports around the world
◾️Our basic view in the currency markets is that the dollar will enter a cyclical bear trend in the coming months.
◾️The prerequisite for this is tightening of credit conditions in the US, which will complement the tightening of monetary policy and lead to the long-awaited disinflation in the US.
◾️If the Fed is able to sharply cut rates later this year, we are convinced that the dollar will trade lower. In this scenario, in our opinion, the EUR/USD pair should be somewhere around 1.15+ by the end of the year, and the USD/JPY pair should be below 130.
◾️The weakening of the US dollar should be a positive factor for global growth. Many countries, especially those with emerging markets, are forced to support local currencies with higher rates.
A reversal in the dollar's broad trend should give them some breathing room and possibly attract more portfolio positives to emerging markets than have been seen since the end of 2020.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸 Situation is changing very fast. And there are more consequences than we see on a surface
Janet Yellen: I support US regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies to protect consumers and investors. Additional crypto regulation would be appropriate, we will work with Congress to push for additional legislation.
▪️ Republican Representative, Hill: The case of the Binance crypto exchange demonstrates the need for clear rules for crypto regulation. We are working on digital asset legislation to bring clarity.
Janet Yellen: I support US regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies to protect consumers and investors. Additional crypto regulation would be appropriate, we will work with Congress to push for additional legislation.
▪️ Republican Representative, Hill: The case of the Binance crypto exchange demonstrates the need for clear rules for crypto regulation. We are working on digital asset legislation to bring clarity.
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸🏦📺The plan unfolds before our eyes? 🤔
1️⃣ SEC Sues Binance and CEO Zhao for Violating US Securities Regulations"
2️⃣ June TGA replenishment of over $1 trillion in Treasury bills causing a liquidity squeeze
3️⃣ Fed Now network launch in July
4️⃣ Regulatory authorities increase the requirements for the Capital of Banks by 20%
5️⃣ Reducing the M2 money supply
3 elements required to implement CBDC Digital💰:
1️⃣ Global dollar deficit
2️⃣ Massive insolvency crisis
3️⃣ Destruction of the crypto ecosystem
1️⃣ SEC Sues Binance and CEO Zhao for Violating US Securities Regulations"
2️⃣ June TGA replenishment of over $1 trillion in Treasury bills causing a liquidity squeeze
3️⃣ Fed Now network launch in July
4️⃣ Regulatory authorities increase the requirements for the Capital of Banks by 20%
5️⃣ Reducing the M2 money supply
3 elements required to implement CBDC Digital💰:
1️⃣ Global dollar deficit
2️⃣ Massive insolvency crisis
3️⃣ Destruction of the crypto ecosystem
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸🆘Binance US delists about 100 trading pairs and suspends over-the-counter trading (OTC) on June 8th.
BTC, ETH, BNB on Binance US trading above the market:
▪️ BTC is more expensive by $1681.
▪️ ETH for $124.
▪️ BNB for $17.
Previously: Binance US vs SEC👇🏻
Court Grants SEC Petition to Freeze Binance US Assets
▪️ The assets of BAM Management and BAM Trading, subsidiaries of the US crypto exchange Binance, will be frozen.
▪️ The crypto exchange is obliged within 10 days to return to customers all fiat currencies and crypto assets that are on the Binance US account.
BTC, ETH, BNB on Binance US trading above the market:
▪️ BTC is more expensive by $1681.
▪️ ETH for $124.
▪️ BNB for $17.
Previously: Binance US vs SEC👇🏻
Court Grants SEC Petition to Freeze Binance US Assets
▪️ The assets of BAM Management and BAM Trading, subsidiaries of the US crypto exchange Binance, will be frozen.
▪️ The crypto exchange is obliged within 10 days to return to customers all fiat currencies and crypto assets that are on the Binance US account.
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday it's not surprising to see further consolidation in the banking sector as some of them are under pressure on profits *Conspiracy Theory Confirmed*😁
😎They deliberately cause a Banking Crisis to introduce CBDC Digital💰 leaving only the main Banks?🤔
😎They deliberately cause a Banking Crisis to introduce CBDC Digital💰 leaving only the main Banks?
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸The Fed is launching FedNow next month, setting the stage for CBDC Digital💰USA.
There is much discussion about whether the introduction of this service marks the beginning of events that will change the entire system. Source
There is much discussion about whether the introduction of this service marks the beginning of events that will change the entire system. Source
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸Fox Business insider: “CZ Binance has been subpoenaed by the US District Court!”
Now it is wide discussion concerning CBDC. Like, everything that's happening right now is preparation for CBDC Digital💰USA, but they need a crisis first...
▪️ Yellen started issuing Treasuries on June 5
▪️ SEC started to freeze crypto exchanges on June 5
▪️ Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 5
▪️ The US and Australia announce the delivery of F-18s to Ukraine on June 5
Well, at least this is how followers of this idea present it👆🏻
Now it is wide discussion concerning CBDC. Like, everything that's happening right now is preparation for CBDC Digital💰USA, but they need a crisis first...
▪️ Yellen started issuing Treasuries on June 5
▪️ SEC started to freeze crypto exchanges on June 5
▪️ Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 5
▪️ The US and Australia announce the delivery of F-18s to Ukraine on June 5
Well, at least this is how followers of this idea present it👆🏻
🇨🇳 The yuan fell to a 2023 low after reports of a sharp fall in exports and amid speculation that the real numbers are much worse
✔️The market has not considered the possibility of devaluing the yuan for a long time: after the latest data on China's trade, it's time to seriously think about it again.
✔️The market has not considered the possibility of devaluing the yuan for a long time: after the latest data on China's trade, it's time to seriously think about it again.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️👆It is an interesting article appeared yesterday in the Financial Times. Here is what the publication writes:
"The US government will issue $1.1 trillion in short-term Treasury bills by the end of 2023. Analysts are concerned that the huge volume of new issuance will lead to an increase in government bond yields. This will entail the withdrawal of cash from bank deposits, and will put pressure on banks .
The US is currently running a significant budget deficit and the QT is still in effect. If there is another large issuance of papers, then there will be increased volatility in the treasury market in the coming months."
All this can lead to the growth of the US dollar on FX.🤓
source: ft.com
"The US government will issue $1.1 trillion in short-term Treasury bills by the end of 2023. Analysts are concerned that the huge volume of new issuance will lead to an increase in government bond yields. This will entail the withdrawal of cash from bank deposits, and will put pressure on banks .
The US is currently running a significant budget deficit and the QT is still in effect. If there is another large issuance of papers, then there will be increased volatility in the treasury market in the coming months."
All this can lead to the growth of the US dollar on FX.
source: ft.com
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣⚡️Meanwhile, there was a sensation in the investigations into the Biden family. The day before, the head of the Oversight Committee, James Comer , announced the start of a Congressional no-confidence procedure against FBI Director Christopher Ray due to the latter's refusal to provide the FBI document (Form FD-1023), allegedly revealing the Biden's machinations "in one country."
And just a few hours after the ultimatum was presented, Comer issued an official statement about the FBI's consent to provide the document :
“After weeks of refusing to even acknowledge the existence of the FD-1023 tape, the FBI relented and is now allowing all members of the Oversight and Accountability Committee to view this unclassified tape, which memorializes conversations between a confidential source and a foreign national who claimed to have bribed then Vice President Joe Biden ” .
That is, Christopher Ray suddenly retreated under the onslaught of the Republicans? This could be a radical turn for Biden. It is noteworthy that with a high degree of probability, the “one country” referred to in the document is Ukraine and the corruption episode with Burisma . At least that's the conclusion that can be drawn from the amount of the bribe that allegedly appears in the FBI records. We are talking about 5 million received by Biden when he was vice president. A similar order of money received is recorded by various bank documents on the firms of Biden and his partners, published back in 2019 .
Comer's application is more than serious. The oversight committee is going to hold a press conference today. Let's see what the "Biden files" from the FBI will open - the intrigue is serious, friends.
Adding fuel to the fire is a comment by Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna , who tweeted following the results of the Oversight Committee hearing that " the FBI fears their whistleblower will be killed if exposed based on information he provided about the Biden family" .
And just a few hours after the ultimatum was presented, Comer issued an official statement about the FBI's consent to provide the document :
“After weeks of refusing to even acknowledge the existence of the FD-1023 tape, the FBI relented and is now allowing all members of the Oversight and Accountability Committee to view this unclassified tape, which memorializes conversations between a confidential source and a foreign national who claimed to have bribed then Vice President Joe Biden ” .
That is, Christopher Ray suddenly retreated under the onslaught of the Republicans? This could be a radical turn for Biden. It is noteworthy that with a high degree of probability, the “one country” referred to in the document is Ukraine and the corruption episode with Burisma . At least that's the conclusion that can be drawn from the amount of the bribe that allegedly appears in the FBI records. We are talking about 5 million received by Biden when he was vice president. A similar order of money received is recorded by various bank documents on the firms of Biden and his partners, published back in 2019 .
Comer's application is more than serious. The oversight committee is going to hold a press conference today. Let's see what the "Biden files" from the FBI will open - the intrigue is serious, friends.
Adding fuel to the fire is a comment by Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna , who tweeted following the results of the Oversight Committee hearing that " the FBI fears their whistleblower will be killed if exposed based on information he provided about the Biden family" .
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Gary Gensler*:
We don't need more digital currencies... we already have a digital currency called the US dollar. For many centuries, it has never happened that the economy and the public needed more than 1 means of transferring value.
source: coindesk.com
* SEC Chairman
We don't need more digital currencies... we already have a digital currency called the US dollar. For many centuries, it has never happened that the economy and the public needed more than 1 means of transferring value.
source: coindesk.com
* SEC Chairman
CoinDesk
U.S. Doesn't 'Need More Digital Currency' Because It Has the Dollar, Says SEC's Gensler
Gensler's comments follow landmark suits filed this week against crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase.
🇨🇳🇨🇺🇺🇸 Escalation is spinning up...
China will pay Cuba to host a secret spy base where Beijing can spy on American ships and electronic communications in the US Southeast.
China and Cuba have reached a secret agreement for China to set up an electronic listening center on the island, in Beijing's new brazen geopolitical challenge to the US, according to US officials familiar with top-secret intelligence
China will pay Cuba to host a secret spy base where Beijing can spy on American ships and electronic communications in the US Southeast.
China and Cuba have reached a secret agreement for China to set up an electronic listening center on the island, in Beijing's new brazen geopolitical challenge to the US, according to US officials familiar with top-secret intelligence
WSJ
WSJ News Exclusive | Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S.
Beijing agreed to pay Havana several billion dollars for allowing it to set up an eavesdropping facility about 100 miles from Florida.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Binance.US suspends US dollar deposits after crackdown by regulators
June 8 (Reuters) - Crypto exchange Binance.US said on Thursday it is suspending U.S. dollar deposits and that its banking partners are preparing to pause fiat dollar withdrawal channels as early as June 13, just days after U.S. regulators sued Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao.
June 8 (Reuters) - Crypto exchange Binance.US said on Thursday it is suspending U.S. dollar deposits and that its banking partners are preparing to pause fiat dollar withdrawal channels as early as June 13, just days after U.S. regulators sued Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao.