FED CHAIR POWELL: WE ARE NOW AT THE HIGH END OF NEUTRAL — SLIGHTLY RESTRICTIVE — WHICH IS PRECISELY THE RIGHT PLACE TO BE, ALLOWING US TO WAIT AND OBSERVE HOW THINGS UNFOLD BEFORE TAKING ACTION.
(@FirstSquaw)

CANADA HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO HOST A NEW MULTINATIONAL DEFENCE BANK — THE GLOBE AND MAIL.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: WE WON'T KNOW UNTIL WE KNOW, NOTING THAT WHEN THE FED HELD ONLY QUARTERLY PRESS CONFERENCES, POLICY MOVES OCCURRED EXCLUSIVELY AT THOSE MEETINGS, BUT PRESS CONFERENCES AT EVERY MEETING ARE NOW THE NORM AND PEOPLE HAVE GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO IT.
(@FirstSquaw)

POWELL: THE COMMITTEE DOES HOLD LIVELY AND DIVERGENT VIEWS, ADDING THAT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE DOT PLOT OR THE SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LACKED BROAD SUPPORT — AND ADMITTING HE WAS NEVER THE WORLD'S BIGGEST FAN OF THE DOT PLOT.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: WE REMAIN THE ONLY MAJOR CENTRAL BANK THAT DOES NOT PUBLISH A FORECAST, ADDING THAT OUR COMMUNICATIONS ARE FINE — THOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY NATURAL TO CONSIDER REVISITING HOW WE COMMUNICATE.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: WE BELIEVE THE POLICY RATE IS IN A GOOD PLACE — WELL POSITIONED TO MOVE IN EITHER DIRECTION; IF A HIKE BECOMES NECESSARY, WE WILL SIGNAL AND DELIVER IT, AND THE SAME APPLIES IF A CUT IS WARRANTED.
(@FirstSquaw)

POWELL: NO ONE IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A HIKE — THE PATH AHEAD WILL DEPEND ON HOW CONDITIONS UNFOLD — ADDING THAT THE QUESTION OF ALTERING FORWARD GUIDANCE WAS A MUCH CLOSER CALL IN THIS CYCLE, THOUGH ULTIMATELY THE FED OPTED AGAINST CHANGING IT.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: THE IMPACT OF OIL ON THE US IS SMALLER THAN ON EUROPE AND ASIA, BUT IF THE CURRENT SITUATION DRAGS ON, THE EFFECT WILL BECOME FAR MORE PRONOUNCED — ADDING HE IS VERY MINDFUL THAT PEOPLE ARE FEELING THE PINCH OF HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES.
(@FirstSquaw)

THE NASDAQ HAS RECOVERED FROM ITS DECLINE TO HOVER NEAR FLAT DURING THE FED'S PRESS CONFERENCE, WHILE THE S&P 500 SITS 0.14% LOWER AS POWELL ADDRESSES REPORTERS.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: EVERY SUPPLY SHOCK CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO LIFT BOTH INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT, REQUIRING A BALANCED PURSUIT OF OUR GOALS THROUGH WHAT ARE INHERENTLY TOUGH JUDGMENT CALLS.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: IT WOULD BE SURPRISING IF EVERYONE AGREED — THE RANGE OF VIEWS IS PARTLY A REFLECTION OF THE SHOCKS THE ECONOMY HAS WEATHERED OVER THE PAST FIVE TO SIX YEARS — ADDING THAT WARSH TESTIFIED HE WOULD STAND UP TO TRUMP, AND HE TAKES HIM AT HIS WORD.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: GASOLINE PRICES WILL HINGE ON HOW LONG THE STRAIT REMAINS CLOSED, RAISING THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CONSUMER SPENDING WILL PULL BACK ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE INFLATIONARY EFFECTS — AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS WOULD WARRANT A POLICY RATE MOVE.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: FED INDEPENDENCE IS ENSHRINED IN LAW — WE HAVE EVEN HAD TO GO TO COURT TO DEFEND IT — BUT IT EXTENDS BEYOND THE LAW AS WELL, REQUIRING THAT THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN THE TREASURY AND THE FED BE RESPECTED.
(@FirstSquaw)

POWELL: THE LAW PROVIDES THE FRAMEWORK FOR POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE IN MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS, AND WE DECLINE TO USE OUR TOOLS TO PURSUE GOALS BEYOND OUR MANDATE; EVERY ADMINISTRATION HAS WANTED TO REPURPOSE OUR TOOLS, AND WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED BACK — BUT FED INDEPENDENCE IS NOW AT RISK.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: WE ARE BEING FORCED TO TURN TO THE COURTS TO PROTECT OUR ABILITY TO CONDUCT MONETARY POLICY FREE OF POLITICAL INFLUENCE, AND NONE OF THAT IS OVER YET — THOUGH HE REMAINS CONFIDENT THE FED WILL CONTINUE TO BASE ITS DECISIONS ON ANALYSIS RATHER THAN POLITICS, EVEN AS WE'VE HAD TO FIGHT TO PRESERVE THAT.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: THERE ARE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS THAT THESE ATTACKS WILL CONTINUE — AND THAT WOULD POSE A PROBLEM — REITERATING THE FED'S COMMITMENT TO BEING GOOD STEWARDS OF THE PUBLIC'S MONEY, WITH WALLER AND THE RESERVE BANK PRESIDENTS DEEPLY PASSIONATE ABOUT THAT.
(@FirstSquaw)

POWELL: THERE ARE FUNCTIONS PERFORMED ACROSS ALL 12 FED BANKS THAT COULD BE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE, AND DEBATE OVER THAT IS ONGOING; HE AGREES WITH WALLER THAT FED PRESIDENTS SHOULD NOT BE REMOVED OVER POLICY DISAGREEMENTS, AND REAFFIRMED THAT THE FED REMAINS COMMITTED TO RESTORING INFLATION TO 2% — AND DOING SO SUSTAINABLY.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: WE WILL STAY THE COURSE UNTIL INFLATION RETURNS TO TARGET, ACKNOWLEDGING THAT EVENTS KEEP EMERGING THAT PUSH COSTS HIGHER AND THAT REACHING 2% COULD BE VERY COSTLY — BUT THE GOAL IS TO GET THERE OVER TIME WHILE INFLICTING THE LEAST POSSIBLE DAMAGE.
(@FirstSquaw)

FED CHAIR POWELL: WE HAVE A NEVER-ENDING AND UNSHAKEABLE COMMITMENT TO RETURNING INFLATION TO 2%, ADDING THAT THE ECONOMY IS QUITE RESILIENT, GROWTH IS SOLID, AND CONSUMER SPENDING IS HOLDING UP WELL — BUOYED BY CONSUMER DEMAND AND THE INSATIABLE DEMAND FOR DATA CENTERS, WITH PDFP RUNNING ABOVE 2%, WHICH IS A POSITIVE.
(@FirstSquaw)

POWELL: THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS QUITE CLOSE TO ITS NATURAL LEVEL, THOUGH THE LABOR MARKET DOESN'T FEEL STRONG TO SOME BECAUSE QUITS AND HIRES REMAIN LOW, WITH FEW NEW OPPORTUNITIES.
(@FirstSquaw)