Lux Trading Firm
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Community for traders exploring evaluation-based access to funded trading accounts.

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Congratulations to Sung K. on pulling a £1351.00 withdrawal from the Lux Trading Firm Prediction Markets account!

:trophy: Stop trading with your own capital. Prove your edge, get funded, and keep the lion's share of your gains.

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BTC/USD Daily Analysis:

-Bitcoin surged to $69,340, its highest level since June 2, rebounding strongly from the $57,000 YTD low.

-Falling US bond yields boosted risk appetite and supported the crypto rally.

-The 30-year Treasury yield dropped to 5.19% from a 5.33% YTD high.

-However, the bond-market intervention may provide only temporary relief.

-Elevated yields could persist as oil remains above $90 amid US-Iran tensions.

-Trump’s meeting with major crypto executives boosted optimism around the sector.

-Discussions focused on the stalled CLARITY Act, though approval remains uncertain.

-Bitcoin ETFs added over $500M recently, signaling renewed institutional demand.

-Strong ETF inflows and improving risk sentiment support further upside.

-Momentum remains bullish, but elevated yields and geopolitical risks could trigger volatility.
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XAU/USD Daily Analysis:

-Gold holds near $4,550, close to its highest level since early June.

-A weaker US Dollar and cooling US inflation continue to support bullion.

-Gold has broken above the key 200-day SMA at $4,514, strengthening the bullish setup.

-However, rising oil prices amid US-Iran tensions are reviving inflation concerns.

-Fed minutes signaled possible rate hikes if inflation fails to ease further.

-Markets still price around a 68% chance of at least one Fed hike this year.

-MACD remains positive, while RSI at 67.7 signals strong but stretched momentum.

-A sustained break above $4,529 could target $4,687, then the $4,889 cycle high.

-Key support sits at $4,529, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,514.

-Below $4,514, deeper support lies at $4,417 and $4,306, while the broader bias remains bullish.
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NASDAQ Daily Analysis:

-Nasdaq 100 fell from 29,480 to near 29,150 before staging a sharp rebound.

-RSI dropped below 30, then recovered as price made a marginal low, hinting at bullish divergence.

-RSI has climbed to 64.49, showing stronger momentum without reaching overbought levels.

-The index reclaimed its 200-period MA at 29,265.59, but remains below the 50-period MA at 29,421.22.

-Treasury buybacks initially lowered yields and supported equities, but that relief faded quickly.

-The 30-year Treasury yield rebounded toward 5.25%, while the 10-year returned near 4.70%.

-Nasdaq 100 closed at 29,213.16, down 0.72%, pressured by rising yields.

-Iran-related tensions continue adding inflation and oil-price risks.

-Jackson Hole, Aug. 27–29
, is the next major catalyst, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expected to speak Aug. 28.

-Near-term momentum is improving, but 29,150–29,420 remains the key zone to watch.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis:

-EUR/USD holds near 1.1680, supported by weakness in the US Dollar.

-US Treasury plans to double long-end bond buybacks to $4B are weighing on the USD.

-Fiscal concerns and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path add pressure to the Greenback.

-Markets await details of potential US sanctions on Iran, which could revive safe-haven USD demand.

-Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday is the key event for rate guidance.

-Hawkish Fed comments could limit EUR/USD upside.

-Technically, EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias above the 100-day SMA and Bollinger middle band.

-RSI near 73 signals overbought conditions, increasing the risk of near-term consolidation.

-Resistance sits at the 1.1705 upper Bollinger band.

-Support is at 1.1575, then 1.1558; overall bias remains bullish above these levels.
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Daily BTC/USD Analysis:

-Bitcoin extended its rally, reaching its highest level in months as bond-market concerns intensified.

-The US 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.336%, highlighting rising debt and fiscal concerns.

-US public debt has reached a record $40 trillion, boosting interest in alternative assets.

-Bitcoin’s capped 21M supply and safe-haven appeal are supporting demand alongside Gold.

-Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $307M Friday after $606M Thursday.

-ETFs attracted over $1.92B last week, their strongest weekly inflow this year.

-Monthly ETF inflows have exceeded $2.3B, with assets under management near $96B.

-BTC broke above $66,875 and reclaimed its 50-day EMA, confirming stronger momentum.

-RSI near 75 signals heavily overbought conditions, raising consolidation risks.

-Above $79,475, Bitcoin could target $80,000+; near-term bias remains bullish above $66,875.
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Daily XAU/USD Analysis:

-Gold pulled back sharply from $4,697, snapping a two-day rally amid USD strength.

-Risk-off sentiment, tech weakness and renewed US-Iran tensions boosted safe-haven USD demand.

-Rising Oil prices are reviving inflation fears and pushing US Treasury yields higher.

-Gold has fallen nearly $70, but downside may remain limited by softer Fed hike expectations.

-Strong physical demand from India and China also provides underlying support.

-XAU/USD remains bullish above key moving averages despite the latest correction.

-RSI near 71 signals overbought conditions, increasing the risk of further pullback.

-Key support is at the 200-day SMA near $4,520, followed by $4,379 and $4,323.

-Societe Generale sees potential upside toward $4,730–$4,770, then $4,890.

-Overall bias remains bullish, favoring buy-the-dip strategies while price holds above $4,520.
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NASDAQ Daily Analysis:

-Nasdaq 100 remains slightly positive but lags broader US equities amid weakness in major AI stocks.

-Nvidia and other AI names face pressure as rising bond yields increase capital costs.

-Crypto-linked stocks are surging, with Coinbase and MicroStrategy up around 7%, while Robinhood gained 13% at one point.

-Bitcoin is heading for a 23% weekly gain, supporting crypto-related equities.

-Ross Stores jumped 8.1% after a strong Q2 earnings beat, while MKS Instruments also advanced.

-Market leadership is shifting toward underlying stocks rather than the biggest index components.

-Nasdaq 100 bounced from its 50-day EMA, suggesting underlying technical support.

-The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, reviving concerns over deficits and persistent inflation.

-Treasury intervention helped stabilize bonds, but investors remain cautious about elevated yields.

-Next week, Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings Wednesday are key catalysts.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis:

-EUR/USD holds near 1.1672, just below this week’s 1.1710 high as traders await key US data.

-US consumer confidence fell to 89.4, below expectations, signaling softer economic sentiment.

-Housing starts and house prices also weakened, adding to concerns about US growth.

-The US economy lost 23K jobs last month, while retail sales also softened.

-Markets await July PCE inflation, with core PCE expected at 3.3% and headline PCE at 3.5%.

-Sticky PCE above the Fed’s 2% target could reinforce a hawkish policy stance.

-US GDP and personal spending data will provide further clues on economic strength.

-Jackson Hole is the next major catalyst, with Fed and ECB officials set to speak.

-Technically, EUR/USD remains above the 50-day EMA and 1.1621 support.

-A bullish flag supports further upside; a break above 1.1710 could target 1.1800.
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BTC/USD Daily Analysis:

-Bitcoin holds near $80,000, close to its highest level since May, after a strong rally from $62,300.

-Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $2B this month, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.

-IBIT now holds over $60B in assets, while Fidelity’s FETH holds $13.8B.

-Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue falling, signaling ongoing retail and institutional accumulation.

-The Crypto Fear & Greed Index above 80 shows extreme greed and strong risk appetite.

-US GDP and PCE data are the next major catalysts for Bitcoin.

-Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech could provide clues on future monetary policy.

-The 50-day and 200-day WMAs are nearing a bullish golden cross, supporting further gains.

-However, falling ADX suggests momentum may be weakening, while $82,600 remains key resistance.

-A breakout could target $85,000, but profit-taking may trigger a pullback first.
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XAU/USD Daily Analysis:

-Gold approaches $4,500 as the USD faces strong selling pressure.

-The Dollar weakened after US Treasury yields retreated sharply from multi-year highs.

-Treasury plans to double long-term debt buybacks to at least $4B per operation from September 9.

-Lower yields are easing financial conditions and adding pressure on the Greenback.

-Persistent Middle East tensions and rising Oil prices remain key inflation risks.

-XAU/USD maintains a strong bullish structure above its short- and long-term moving averages.

-Four-hour support sits near $4,394, followed by $4,252 and $4,160.

-Daily RSI near 66 confirms strong bullish momentum without extreme overbought conditions.

-Key resistance is the 200-day SMA at $4,510, with a breakout signaling further upside.

-Overall bias remains bullish while Gold holds above $4,394, favoring buy-the-dip setups.
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Congratulations to Chris T.. on pulling a $2291.00 withdrawal from the Lux Trading Firm Prediction Markets account!

🏆 Stop trading with your own capital. Prove your edge, get funded, and keep the lion's share of your gains.

🔗 Learn More: https://luxtradingfirm.com/prediction-markets-funded-accounts/
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NASDAQ Daily Analysis:

-Nasdaq 100 dipped early Wednesday but recovered as buyers defended the 50-day EMA.

-The 50-day EMA remains a key support zone and could trigger another bounce.

-Initial upside target is 29,250, followed by the major psychological level at 30,000.

-Traders remain cautious ahead of Nvidia earnings after the US market close.

-Nvidia’s results and guidance could significantly impact the broader AI and tech trade.

-Attention then shifts to Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

-A hawkish Fed tone could pressure equities, while dovish signals may support the rally.

-The current technical setup remains constructive while the 50-day EMA holds.

-If support fails, the index could retreat toward the 28,500 area.

-Overall, Nasdaq remains cautiously bullish, with 29,250 and 30,000 key upside levels.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis:

-EUR/USD faces a key inflection point ahead of Jackson Hole and Friday’s Fed speech.

-Euro strength has been supported by expectations of an ECB 25bp September hike.

-Kevin Warsh’s
comments could reshape Fed rate expectations and trigger sharp EUR/USD volatility.

-A hawkish Fed stance could weaken the euro and erase its recent rate-driven advantage.

-Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks are pushing up energy costs.

-Higher energy prices could hurt Eurozone industrial margins and force the ECB to reconsider its hawkish path.

-Extended euro positioning suggests the recent pullback may reflect positioning exhaustion, not a fundamental breakdown.

-EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of the event, increasing the risk of a post-speech whipsaw.

-Support:
1.1650–1.1680 | Resistance: 1.1750.

-Overall, Friday’s Fed signal and geopolitical headlines are likely to determine the next major EUR/USD direction.
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