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Market news & trade ideas & Live streams and more by FBS team!🚀

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​#GBPUSD is near 1.4070

R: 1.4150

S: 1.3970

🔻 British economic data: CPI disappointed (headline CPI declined from 3.0% to 2.7%). The reading is still above the BoE target though.
🔺 Brexit: Britain and the European Union agreed to a 21-month post-Brexit transition period and a potential solution to avoid a “hard border” for Northern Ireland.
🔺 Bank of England: According to Bloomberg survey, the BoE will vote unanimously (9-0) to keep the bank rate steady at 0.50% on Thursday. At the same time, the percentage of economists predicting a rate hike in May rose to 54%.

Near-term risk: US Federal Reserve will announce its decision at 20:00 MT time on Wednesday. A rate hike is priced in, but will the Fed give the market something more?
Do you use Stop Loss orders?
anonymous poll

Sometimes – 32
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 49%

Always – 17
👍👍👍👍 26%

Never – 16
👍👍👍👍 25%

👥 65 people voted so far.
Tips about Stop Loss orders and Risk Management:
​​We eagerly awaited it!💥
The Fed announced an interest rate. As expected, it was raised by 25bp (from 1.50% to 1.75%). 👏

According to economic projections, Fed officials are split on whether two or three additional interest rate increases will be needed in 2018.

💲 In the environment of worries about trade wars, the USD suffers a lot. Let’s see whether the Fed’s monetary policy is able to support it.
​#bookshelf

"Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises" by Charles Kindleberger

📚 Who should read this book:
🔸 Everyone who wants to know more about the overheated markets.

📖 What you will learn:
🔸 How speculative stock market bubbles act.
🔸 The stages of a financial crisis.

Charles P. Kindleberger created hegemonic stability theory and wrote more than 30 books. “Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises” is among his most famous works. It describes financial crashes in great detail, defines the reasons for their occurrences and suggests how to mitigate their effects.

To present how financial crises evolve Charles Kindleberger summarized 40 documented events in the 400+ years from 1600 to 2012.

According to Kindleberger, every crisis passes through 3 stages. The first stage is “mania” when all market participants spend huge amounts of money falling into euphoria produced by policy switching, new technology or financial innovation. Stocks, commodity and consumer prices surge to their highs; economic growth accelerates its pace inducing investors and lenders to become more optimistic about the future. Speculators and swindlers come into play and start buying the asset with the aim of selling it later at a higher price. The expected returns become overestimated. The markets become overtraded. The overtrading spreads from one market to another and reaches the global scale. The mania is followed by panic when investors start to realize that the economy is overheated. At this point some insiders leave the market, there is “financial distress” and the revelation of a swindle that leads to the rush for liquidity. Then the markets are reaching the final stage – they storm and crash.

With “Manias, Panics and Crashes” you will be able to recognize at which stage the market is now (whether there is a shock, a peak, or a moment of revelation) and take precautions.

After you read this book you will understand one simple thing: a big amount of capital moving worldwide raises the possibility of an overflow.

One additional feature of this book is that it first appeared in 1978 but was reprinted many times. At the start, the author could not even imagine how hard financial crises would turn out to be. Turbulence in national banking systems, exchange-rate volatility, and asset-price bubbles moved to new levels. So every new addition had something new to discover. That is why in the every following edition you will find more actual information about financial crashes.
#WeeklyCryptoNews

At the end of the week, bitcoin is losing its positions. The cryptocurrency could not break above the psychological level at $9,000 and fell again. Now bitcoin is trading near $8,500. Support lies at $7,800.

🔸 Tom Lee, co-founder of a research firm Fundstrat, forecasts a growth of bitcoin to $91,000 in 2020. So, hold your breath and HODL. He is sure that a bearish trend in altcoins is close to ending. He highlighted that bitcoin is still the most attractive asset for investments.

🔸 The head of Twitter Jack Dorsey said that bitcoin will become the world's “single currency” in about 10 years.

🔸 There’s a contrary opinion. Morgan Stanley analysts think that bitcoin price repeats the dynamics of the “dotcom” bubble but 15 times faster. Earlier they counted bitcoin’s price and it appeared to be 0!

🔸 The cryptocurrency exchange Binance in Japan can be closed as it has no license.

🔸 A new governor of People's Bank of China said that bitcoin is a currency that gives freedom. It was quite surprising as his predecessor cryptocurrencies can cause negative consequences at the financial market.

This is not all! Follow the link below if you want to find out the news about El Petro, Telegram what the Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar has to do with cryptocurrencies.
☕Greetings! Here are the latest ideas of FBS analysts.

Trade ideas from Tatyana Norkina
USD/JPY: Sell – 105.50; SL – 105.70; TP1 – 105.00; TP2 – 104.30.
AUD/USD: Sell – 0.7730; SL – 0.7750; TP1 – 0.7610; TP2 – 0.7580.

Trade idea from Andi Zabur Rahman
GBP/USD: Sell; SL – 1.4269; TP – 1.4046.

Trade ideas from Ivan Karamazov
XAU/USD: 1. Buy – 1365; SL 1350; TP1 1395; TP2 1410; TP3 1425. 2. Buy – 1340; SL – 1325; TP1 – 1380; TP2 – 1395; TP3 – 1410.

Have a great day!
🏁
​#forextips

💡 The winning formula from Linda Raschke

The famous trading coach Linda Raschke in her book “Professional trading techniques” invented a special formula for trading successfully.

So, for earning more in Forex you need:

• Passion – a driving force that motivates you to succeed.
• Belief – faith that you can achieve your goal.
• Game plan – a strategy or a business plan to attack your goal. Lack of organization and preparation is the main reason for failed trades.
• Integrity – your personal value system.
• Commitment – devotion to your goal. Commitment opens an unlimited source of energy reserve inside us. It provides us with the strength to keep moving forward each day, even if there is no visible progress.
​As we rush into the weekend, here is our choice of…
📺Movies for traders

1. The Big Short
This is the story of several financial analysts and hedge fund managers who were able to predict the US financial crisis of 2008. The film won the Academy Award for the Best Adapted Screenplay and got 4 other nominations. Apart from being entertaining, it manages to explain complex financial instruments to the viewers. The cast includes Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt.

2. Rogue Trader
The film is based on the true story and stars Ewan McGregor as a trader who is gambling away the money of his employer. The protagonist is going further and further in trying to cover up his huge losses – it’s a great visual for all reckless gamblers and hot-tempered traders.

3. Wall Street and Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Wall Street (1987) is a classic movie every trader should watch. Michael Douglas portrays an unscrupulous corporate raider Gordon Gekko who says that “greed, for lack of a better word, is good." A young stockbroker played by Charlie Sheen starts as a fan of Gekko, but as the story develops the two engage in an intense confrontation. Who will be the winner: the master or the apt pupil?

Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2010) is a sequel. The action takes place in 2008 and shows the further fate of the infamous Gordon Gekko.

4. The Wolf of Wall Street
A black comedy and a crime film with Leonardo DiCaprio playing the leading part. Moreover, the hero is based on the real Wall Street star Jordan Belfort. The film was named controversial for its morally ambiguous depiction of events, explicit sexual content, profanity, hard drug use and the use of animals during production. At the same time, the film has many awards and is a great topic for small talk.

5. Boiler Room
A young man starts working for a brokerage firm. Later he finds out that the company runs a dirty business, and FBI wants to make him their informant. The film shows the nature of financial scams and people who make them. Everyone wants to be a millionaire, but not everyone can choose the way to big money wisely.
👍3
🎯 Good day! Are you looking for new trades? Consider the ideas of FBS team!

Trade ideas from Ivan Karamazov
USD/JPY: Buy – 107.00; SL – 106.45; TP1 – 107.85; TP2 – 108.00.
USD/CHF: Buy – 0.9580; SL – 0.9525; TP1 – 0.9680; TP2 – 0.9740; TP3 – 0.9790.
EUR/JPY: Buy – 131.80; SL – 131.25; TP1 – 132.80; TP2 – 133.20; TP3 – 136.70.

Trade ideas from Tatyana Norkina
EUR/USD: Sell – 1.2240; SL – 1.2260; TP1 – 1.2180; TP2 – 1.2150.

🙏 May the profit be with you!
#EconomicCalendar

🔔 Today at 15:30 MT time traders will have an opportunity to trade on the news from the United States. America will make several releases:

- NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)
Forecast: 188K. Previous: 313K.
- Average Hourly Earnings
Forecast: +0.3%. Previous: +0.1%.
- Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.0%. Previous: 4.1%.

As you can see, the forecasts for earnings and growth are good, while NFP is expected to be lower. The previous high NFP may also be revised down.

The pairs to trade
USD/JPY:
- If all 3 indicators show strong readings (earnings and unemployment rate as forecasted, NFP exceeds 200K), the target for USD/JPY will be at 108.30.
- If earnings rise by less than 0.3% and NFP is below 200K, USD/JPY will fall to 107.00, 106.60/40.
USD/CAD:
Canada will also release labor market news at the same time with the US NFP, so if you trade Canadian dollar you will have to take this into account. Technical picture looks negative (Head & Shoulders pattern). A decline below 1.2750 will bring USD/CAD to 1.2700. Resistance is at the neckline at 1.2825.
​THE EURO FORECAST!

Since Wednesday #EURUSD has been consolidating within the range of 1.2215-1.2280.
Look at the forecasts of the well-known financial institutions.

Barclays: “Sell Euros this week”.
Factors: hawkish Fed’ minutes (21:00 MT time, April 11) vs dovish ECB meeting (14:30 MT time, April 12). Moreover, analysts see the "limited scope for the EUR appreciation in 2018."
Target: 1.1948
Stop Loss: 1.2244

Danske: “A Grand Bargain Scenario Vs Outright Trade War Scenario”
1. “Grand Bargain” (i.e. compromise between the United States and China) will pull EUR/USD down
2. Risk scenario: in the short and medium terms the US protectionism will pull the USD lower and EUR/USD will go up.
Target: around 1.34 (medium-term)

Mizuho Bank: “EUR/USD to trade firmly in April”
Factors: the ECB’s rate hike in 2019; trade wars. Bank’s analysts do not see any reason for the single currency to fall. However, there are risks that won’t let the EUR significantly rise. EUR/USD is supposed to move firmly.
Target: the range of 1.22-1.25
​☕ Looks like as long as #USDCAD stays below 1.27, it risks falling to 1.2480 and 1.2350 (if WTI oil broke above $67, that would help to sell the pair).

Data releases from the US at 15:30, 17:30 and 21:00 MT time will be the main drivers today (CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meetings).
Let's see what kind of traders we have here. Take part in the #poll
Fundamental or technical analysis?
anonymous poll

Both – 34
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 48%

Technical – 28
👍👍👍👍👍👍 39%

Fundamental – 6
👍 8%

Analysis? What analysis? I use my intuition! – 3
👍 4%

👥 71 people voted so far.
​#forextips

💡 Trading in times of uncertainty

Markets have been highly volatile in the recent weeks. Trade wars, a conflict around Syria, sanctions, and other things put traders under pressure. A positive comment follows a negative one and the other way around. Financial assets immediately react making traders feel stressed.

How to keep calm and continue trading without hesitation? Have a look at our recommendations.

1. Adopt a clear trading approach. Be sure in your strategy and follow it! Of course, we do not recommend you act against the market, but do not change your tactics rashly.
2. Have a contingency plan. Be ready for “surprise” situations. Include a contingency plan in your trading strategy and you will not lose even in the environment of volatility.
3. Filter news. Dozens of news are out every minute. If you take into consideration all of them, you will never start trading. Base your trades only on proven information.
4. Adapt. If you cannot avoid, adapt! Adapt your Take Profits and Stop Losses to market conditions. Higher volatility – wider Stop Losses.
5. Look at the larger scheme of things. During the periods of volatility, it is dangerous to trade looking only on short-term timeframes. The price can show a great movement on H1, while on the daily chart it will be inconspicuous.
6. Invest in safe havens. Usually, in the environment of uncertainty, safe haven assets as gold, Treasury bonds, certain real estate investments, and defensive stocks like utilities, healthcare, and consumer goods are at the top. But be careful, do not forget about other risks. Among currencies, JPY and CHF tend to strengthen when traders are averse to risks.
7. Diversify. An additional tip to the previous one is diversification. As the old saying goes, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
8. Meditate. Sometimes all that you need is a minute of relaxation. Calm down and may the profit be with you!
#WeeklyCryptoNews

Jeffrey Sprecher, ICE’s chief executive: “There is a trend here we can’t ignore in my mind, so I don’t discount it. People put more faith in a guy named Satoshi Nakamoto that no one has ever met than they do in the US Fed.”

🔸 At the beginning of the week, bitcoin plunged to $6,600. However, it managed to find support and surged above $8,000. The next psychological level is at $9,000.
🔸 The chief executive of Intercontinental Exchange (an American company that owns exchanges for financial and commodity markets and operates 23 regulated exchanges and marketplaces) Jeffrey Sprecher didn’t rule out starting futures contracts on cryptocurrencies.
🔸 The government of Venezuela legalized cryptocurrency circulation in the country. Venezuela’s President Mr. Maduro got a right to regulate El Petro.
🔸 Barclays’ analysts compared bitcoin to viral disorders. They think that the cryptocurrency’s price will decline because of the users’ immunity.
🔸 Mega-scam. Organizers of two ICO projects Ifan and Pincoin disappeared with $660 million of 32K investors. Startup Modern Tech is suspected of this fraud.
🔸 22 EU countries signed a declaration about the partnership in blockchain technologies.

🔺 Bitcoin $8,066 (+17.33%)
🔺 DASH $382.80 (+24.03%)
🔺 Ethereum $514.26 (+20.12%)
🔺 Litecoin $129.67 (+13.47%)
❤1
​#EconomicCalendar

🔔#GBPUSD is surging – it’s already above 1.4360!

Britain will release labor market data in 30 minutes (11:30 MT time).
- Average Earnings Index
Forecast: +3.0%. Previous: +2.8%.
- Claimant Count Change
Forecast: 13.3K. Previous: 9.2K.
- Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.3%. Previous: 4.%.

Average Earnings Index is the most important indicator among the three mentioned above. If the rise is bigger than the forecast, GBP/USD will go above 1.44. If the indicator disappoints, the overbought GBP/USD will likely return below 1.43.
❤1
⛳ Here are some trade ideas from FBS team:

USD/CAD: SELL – 1.2555; SL – 1.2610; TP1 – 1.2455; TP2 – 1.2345;
XAU/USD: BUY – 1,365; SL – 1,350; TP1 – 1,395; TP2 – 1,420.

Trade with pleasure!
​#bookshelf

“The Alchemy of Finance” by George Soros

“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is the truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.” – George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance

📚Who should read this book:
🔸 Everyone who wants to earn money

📙What you will learn:
🔸 The theory of reflexivity
🔸 The decision-making process of George Soros
🔸 Secrets of Soros’s success

Everyone has heard about a legend of the financial world – George Soros. When you hear this name, associations of money, success, fortune, and luck come to your mind, do they not?

Mr. Soros is a founder of an international network of charitable organizations Open Society Foundations and Soros Fund Management. Let us remind you that it was a George Soros who immiserated the Bank of England on the black Friday on September 16, 1992. You can like or dislike his activity, but there is no doubt that his personality allows no one to stay indifferent. Mr. Soros is 87 years old, but he is still a significant figure in the global financial arena. He continues to affect market movements even now.

George Soros is also famous for his theory of reflexivity. According to the theory, the direction of market prices is determined by market participants, their prevailing expectations. And financial success can be achieved by those who can recognize the dominant patterns in the behavior of market participants. In this book, the author presents a new paradigm for the “theory of reflexivity”.

Mr. Soros describes his own decision-making process. First, he makes a projection with regard to a certain event and then tries it on practice. All his forecasts are extremely tentative and subject to constant revision in the light of market developments. Mr. Soros admits that his predictions are not always consistent with the actual course of events; sometimes his perceptions are flawed. His approach is not to make valid predictions, but to be able to sort out the false ones.

📌The Alchemy of Finance is a precious source of the timeless principles of trading. There is no doubt you will get an inspiration after you read this book!
#WeeklyCryptoNews

First of all, here’s the quote of Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and investor, which offers something to think about: “Bitcoin is exciting because it shows how cheap it can be. Bitcoin is better than currency in that you don’t have to be physically in the same place and, of course, for large transactions, currency can get pretty inconvenient.”

Next, have a look at the news that drive cryptocurrencies.

🔸 Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market rose to $373 billion. However, Bitcoin’s price has not increased a lot. The digital currency continues to consolidate near $8,000.
🔸 The Venezuelans prefer bitcoin rather than El Petro. While the government puts forward the national cryptocurrency, Bitcoin trading volume on a platform LocalBitcoins hit record highs. Last week it reached $55 million.
🔸 The head of the IMF claims a sensible approach to cryptocurrencies: without judgment and euphoria. Christine Lagarde says that most of the digital currencies will disappear, however, those that remain, will change the whole financial system.
🔸 CME Group presented the first official report on the trading of Bitcoin futures. According to it, large players bet on Bitcoin’s decline, but the bearish sentiment is declining. On the contrary, small individual traders aim at long positions.

💻Have a great time and trade cryptocurrencies with FBS!