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USD fell, but what’s with EUR?

American currency fell to 3-year low as Donald Trump’s top economic advisors spoke in favor of weaker USD at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

In the meantime, EUR/USD is awaiting the European Central Bank’s press conference at 15:30 MT time. Technically the euro is now overbought and already reached many bullish targets.

The pair will thus easily fall if ECB president Mario Draghi expresses concerns about the euro’s strength – such possibility is high. If, however, Draghi is optimistic about the European economy and doesn’t mention the euro, EUR/USD may bounce towards 1.2600 in the short-term (weaker USD will help).
EUR/USD approached 1.25 as Mario Draghi said that inflation will rise gradually. Volatility remains high and all may easily change!
Watch it live: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html#
Trade signals for #eurusd

We have 2 trade ideas right now.

1. Idea from Ms. Tatyana Norkina
Buy — 1.2420/30; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2460; TP2 — 1.2530
Notice that the pair has already reached the first target. If you don’t have a positioned already opened, you might not want to enter now unless we return to the entry point.

2. Idea from Mr. Ivan Karamazov
Sell — 1.2360; SL — 1.2415; TP1 — 1.2305; TP2 — 1.2200
This is a pending order. If the euro meets resistance and reverses down, this will be a hot trade.
#WeeklyCryptoNews

We have gathered the most interesting news of this week for you. Enjoy!

🔸 Some fun. Let’s start with an unbelievable prediction about Bitcoin. A General director of Xapo Wences Casares forecasts the price of Bitcoin at $1 million. At the same time, he supposes that a chance of Bitcoin’s success is 50%, and fail – 20%.

🔸 Telegram is still on hype. Media is giving new predictions about the Telegram pre-ICO. Numbers have risen to $3.8 billion instead of $850 million. We are waiting for a confirmation from P. Durov on an account “Antiscam” (@notoscam).

🔸 Cutting commission. Popular services like Blockchain .info reduced recommended commission for middle-size transactions in Bitcoin to $1. In future, SegWit and Lightning Network will make commission even lower.

🔸 Russia is keeping up. The country is going to launch a blockchain-project on a registration of real estate in Moscow. It should be one of the biggest practical application of blockchain in Russia or maybe in the world.

🔸 Mining does not stand still. A new generation of mining equipment is developed by Japanese corporation GMO Internet Group – 12-nanometer mining chips.

🔸 An old news with the new data. The second wave of talk about a ban on anonymous trading in South Korea shook up the market. Now we know the exact date of the law –January 30, 2018.

🔸 Today's news: Japanese exchange Coincheck halted trading of all coins except Bitcoin. Bloomberg says that the exchange is not available for comments at this time.

The quotes of main cryptocurrencies:

Bitcoin $10,615 (🔻 6,39%)
Ethereum $1,003 (🔻 5,09%)
Litecoin $169 (🔻 6,91%)
Dash 760$ (🔻 $6,17%)

@fbsanalytics
​​#EconomicCalendar

It’s too early to rest! The end of the week is full of events:

• 15:30 MT time. Important data will be delivered today. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce quarterly GDP growth numbers. If the actual number is greater than the forecast one (+3.0%), the US dollar will appreciate. If the figure disappoints, the USD will suffer. However, that won’t bother Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who has recently said that a weak dollar benefits American trade. So let’s see.

• 13:00 MT time. The financial world was waiting for it for so long! A speech of Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum. Let’s follow it together: http://bit.ly/2BuOof4

• 16:00 MT time. Signals for GBP and JPY traders! Mark Carney – the head of the BOE – and Haruhiko Kuroda – the head of the BOJ – are giving their speeches in Davos during a panel discussion “Global Economic Outlook”. They will cause volatility, so be careful!
​​Dollar ahead of the Fed’s meeting

🔸 USD is set for the biggest monthly loss in 2 years. Donald Trump’s speech didn’t give traders any reasons to buy the greenback.

🔸 The Federal Reserve will announce results of its meeting at 21:00 MT time. This is the last meeting for Janet Yellen as the Fed’s chair. There will be no press conference, only the statement.

🔸 At the moment of writing, the USD remains near lows versus major currencies.

🔸 There a possibility of more hawkish comments today, so USD has a chance for short-term correction up. However, analysts at Commerzbank “are still seeing a broad round of USD weakness and that may also be because of an undertone of risk aversion in the markets.”

Some links:

📈 Live Elliott wave analysis (start at 16:00 MT time): http://bit.ly/2BELlRz
📊 What to expect from the Fed today? http://bit.ly/2GB54pe
👦 Who’s the next Chair of the Fed? http://bit.ly/2DRX6dC
Trade ideas for JPY
🇯🇵

🔸 EUR/JPY
BUY 136.25 SL 135.70 TP1 137.25 TP2 138.10

🔸 USD/JPY
SELL 110.10 SL 110.65 TP 109.10 TP2 108.20
SELL 110.65 SL 111.20 TP1 109.65 TP2 108.65
#WeeklyCryptoNews

A lot of shaking events happened in the cryptocurrency market during the week. Be informed!

🔸 Why now? Bloomberg and some other media gave information that Bitfinex was called to court by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as it propped up prices of cryptocurrencies by issuing a virtual currency Tether that was not secured. The interesting fact is Bitfinex received a court summon in December, but news appeared only now. It brings some thoughts.

🔸 Even more. Tether stopped cooperation with the audit company Friedman LLP. The official reason is the inability of the company to conduct an audit in a timely manner. Bad situation for Tether because of the talks around unsecured tokens USDT.

🔸 More ban on cryptocurrency. Ads of cryptocurrency and ICO are banned on Facebook and Instagram. The aim of it is to protect users from scam. However, the ban is supposed to be canceled soon after good offers are filtered from the bad ones.

🔸 No more anonymity. Bitfury Group announced a service Crystal for bitcoin-transactions tracking. Everyone will be able to identify suspicious transfers and addresses that may have been involved in illegal activities.

🔸 Delay. ICO KODAKCoin that was appointed on January 31 is delayed by several weeks because of huge numbers of applications (40000). Kodak takes time to check investors’ reliability.

🔸 El Petro will exist! The pre-ICO of the national cryptocurrency El Petro will be held on February 20. Emission of the cryptocurrency will be 100 million tokens: 38.4% is planned to be sold during pre-ICO, 44% – 1 month after, 17.6% will be kept on the account of the state administration on cryptocurrencies. The starting price is $60.

🔸 Japanese financial service company is going to inspect all crypto exchanges after the hack of Coincheck. Maybe it will help to prevent other thefts.

🔸 Is LiteMonero possible? The developer of Litecoin Charlie Lee and Monero Riccardo Spagni spoke about their plans to develop development a protocol for atomic swaps between two cryptocurrencies and combining of two teams.

🔸 Positive prospects at the end. The government of the capital of Taiwan and blockchain platform IOTA agreed on creating a “smart city” in Taipei. Firstly, they will introduce the ID technology TangleID for city residents.

🔻 Bitcoin $8514 (-14.87%)
🔻 Ethereum $905.48 (-17.82%)
🔻 DASH $545 (-21.15%)
🔻 Litecoin $121.27 (-25.02%)

@fbsanalytics
​​#EconomicCalendar

Today is the NFP day! American Nonfarm Payrolls will be out at 15:30 MT time.

Note that this time traders will focus on wage growth (Average hourly Earnings) and Unemployment Rate – two other labor market indicators which will also come out at 15:30 MT time.

Scenarios:

☀ Positive for USD: wages rise by 0.3% or more (especially if NFP is above forecast and/or unemployment rate declines)

☁ Negative for USD: wages rise by 0.2% or less (especially is NFP is below forecast and/or unemployment rate doesn’t change)

Pairs for trading: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
​​#forextips

💡 5 tips on drawing Fibonacci levels

Do you use Fibonacci retracement tool in your market analysis? Here are some hints:

1. Fibo levels are always drawn from the left to the right. Candlesticks’ wicks count.
2. Pay attention to longer-term trends: when different Fibonacci levels converge, they become more important.
3. Fibonacci alone is not enough for a good trading decision: use other indicators for confirmation.
4. Avoid using Fibos over short time intervals.
5. Think of each Fibo level more as an area rather than an exact level.
#WeeklyCryptoNews

The fall of Bitcoin below $6000 this week shocked not only Bitcoin fans. Let’s look what else can surprise us!

🔸 China gets stricter and stricter. The Chinese government is going to ban the access to all internal and external platforms related to cryptocurrencies and ICO.

🔸 US national level of cryptocurrency restrictions? Heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked the Congress to consider federal supervision for digital-currency trading platforms. However, the Congress decided to not enact a ban on the national level yet. The chair of CFTC Giancarlo even said that Bitcoin had an important function in the global markets.

🔸 The Facebook ban is not so strict. The social network's ban on advertising ICOs and cryptocurrencies can be avoided by simple mistakes such as “zero” instead of “o” in the world Bitcoin. A bot will not recognize the world and will let post a publication.

🔸 Litecoin plans to release a special payment service LitePay soon. Users will be able to exchange LiteCoins for dollars and pay with them wherever they want. Moreover, they will be able to withdraw cash from an ordinary ATM.

🔸 Ripple is growing. Ripple made an arrangement with the National bank of Abu-Dhabi. Ripple technology will be integrated into a payment system of the bank.

🔸 Kodak perspectives are not so positive. The investment company Kerrisdale Capital said that Kodak does not have financial and technological resources to implement the blockchain platform KODAKOne. The Kerrisdale Capital is sure that the Kodak needs it just to avoid a default.

🔸 Hidden mining is everywhere. Firstly, malware ADB.miner that is used for hidden mining Monero attacked Androids. After that, it was found on MacOS.

🔸 A classical pump. During a day the price of the E-coin rose from $6 to $290 and then fell to $3.

🔸 At the end, some predictions for Bitcoin. The famous crypto trader and analyst Tone Vays predicts 4 more weeks of fall for Bitcoin.

🔸 Someone is over-optimistic. For example, Mr. McAfee (the founder of the software company McAfee.Inc) said that he will eat his own man meat if one bitcoin isn’t priced at $1 million by 2020.

🔻 Bitcoin $8018 (-1.92%)
🔺 DASH $586.76 (+9.41%)
🔻 Ethereum $810.01 (-1.89%)
🔺 Litecoin $144.00(+1.07%)

@fbsanalytics
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​​🇯🇵 USD/JPY: yen crashes obstacles


USD fell to 15-month low versus Japanese yen. The next important support is at the psychological level of 105.00.


🔸 No interventions yet. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said today that he doesn’t see current yen moves as being so strong or weak that would warrant intervention, adding that there was no plan now to respond to Forex moves.
🔸 Many yen bulls initially entered the trade predicting the JPY would rise as the Bank of Japan moves toward removing its record stimulus.
🔸 Uncertainty comes from the future BOJ leadership: current Governor Kuroda was reappointed, but the identities of his two deputies are still unknown.
🔸 Higher inflation figures didn’t help the USD as traders focus on American current account and budget deficits.


Trade ideas for USD/JPY:

SELL 107.40 SL 107.95 TP1 106.40 TP2 105.35 TP3 102.80
SELL 108.05 SL 108.6 TP1 107.00 TP2 106.40 TP3 105.35
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#WeeklyCryptoNews

This week Bitcoin is climbing to $10,000. Let’s look if we have any other positive news.

🔸 South Korea is melting. The government officially answered to a petition in that citizens asked not to enact too strict regulation. It said that its aim is to ensure transparency of cryptocurrency transactions within the regulatory framework and prevent illegal activities in the digital currency industry. In early February, the Prime Minister claimed that crypto exchanges will not be closed.

🔸 Japan is loyal to cryptocurrencies. The Bank of Japan Governor said that cryptocurrencies are not a threat to the existing financial system.

🔸 Citibank India became the first big bank to forbid its clients to purchase cryptocurrencies by both credit and debit cards. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Lloyds and others banned only credit payments.

🔸 Another ban on payments by cards. The Thailand central bank does not allow state banks to work with cryptocurrency platforms. Clients aren’t allowed to buy cryptocurrencies by credit cards.

🔸 During several hours after the ban on withdrawal of the yen from the crypto-exchange Coincheck was lifted, site users took away the amount equal to $372 million. The withdrawal of cryptocurrencies is still forbidden, that is why the crypto-exchange is being sued.

🔸 New hard fork. The hard fork Litecoin Cash is anticipated at night on February 19. Its developers promise to lower the price of transactions by 90%. However, the hard fork is not related to the Litecoin group. Earlier Charlie Lee said that any hard fork of Litecoin can be a scam.

🔸 A representative of Microsoft management Alex Simons said that any improvements by hard fork are ineffective. The future is in blockchains of the second level such as the Lighting Network. He also announced that Microsoft is working on its own blockchain protocol.

🔸 Using cryptocurrencies for offshores is becoming more popular. An appearance of such anonymous tokens as ZCash and Monero supports it because their technology does not let to track their movement.

🔻 Bitcoin $9,800 (-0.05%)
🔻 DASH $682.45 (-0.42%)
🔻 Ethereum $918 (-1.95%)
🔻 Litecoin $213.32(-9.10%)

@fbsanalytics
🏦 What do the banks say?

We have gathered the most recent Forex forecasts by analysts of the big respected banks. Love them or loathe them, there are some interesting ideas.

🔸 USD

Goldman Sachs: The US dollar fell over the past year not because of the American factors, but as investors preferred other regions like Europe and Japan. The USD may keep weakening even as the Federal Reserve keeps tightening policy.

🔸 EUR

UOB: Selling pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to return above 1.2435 during the next few days.

Scotiabank: EUR/USD is vulnerable to a decline to 1.2207. If the euro falls below this support, it may trigger a "double top" with a target at 1.19.

🔸 GBP

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: The UK government should have strong incentives to get a transition deal relatively early. The outlook for the GBP is bullish, especially against the EUR and the CHF.

🔸 JPY

BNP Paribas: The Japanese yen is now cheap. It may outperform other G10 currencies this year and show higher return than both the EUR and the USD. Although the BOJ’s monetary policy is loose, the next change in policy can only be hawkish. Plus, the JPY will strengthen in case of the market’s risk aversion.

Danske Bank: Japanese investors and companies usually repatriate investments and foreign income going into fiscal year end in Japan by the end of March, which in recent years seems to have been a positive for the yen. USD/JPY will decline to 104 in 1-3 months.

🔸 AUD

TD Securities: The Australian dollar will remain under pressure given that the hurdle for a near-term rate hike by the RBA is higher. AUD/USD supports are located near $US0.7750.

@fbsanalytics
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​#bookshelf

We have started a section where we’ll post our review of the most interesting books for traders.

“Trading in the zone” by Mark Douglas

📚 Who should read this book:

🔸 Traders who just entered the FX market
🔸 Traders who trade for a long time but unsuccessfully

📝 What you will learn:

🔸 How to have confidence in your trades.
🔸 How to free your mind from algorithms and understand that anything can happen on the market.
🔸 How to control your feelings in a case of an unpredictable situation.
🔸 How to ignore useless information.

📗 Short summary

Why traders read a lot of books about trading strategies but lose huge amounts of money? Why do trading tips not work? It is because of everything in our minds!

Mark Douglas will not teach you how to analyze the market. He won’t tell you about the major trends or rules of trading either. He wrote this book to explain how to change your mind to become successful in the FX market.

Mr. Douglas spent about 17 years analyzing the psychological dynamics behind trading. He came to a conclusion that there is a difference between the way our minds work and the logic of the market. Misbalance will lead to loses, so it is highly important to remove it. The aim of the book is to help a trader to create a harmony between him and the market. As it is impossible to change characteristics of the market, traders should change their attitude to it.

Douglas defined the ideas that every trader should follow:

🔸 You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money.
🔸 Anything can happen.
🔸 Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesn't.

📈 The author concluded that the market is highly unpredictable and results of traders depend on their attitude, not on the strategy they choose. Traders who act without hesitation and with a “cold mind” become successful. Another important fact is that such traders learn how to focus on the information that gives them opportunities to make money and not on the information that creates fears and doubts. In his book, Mark Douglas will teach you how to become such trader.

📌 Summing up, we can say that this book is quite different from other financial books that teach you how to use theoretical knowledge in the real life. The book was written to help you to understand yourself and the market from the point of its subjective behavior. To become a successful trader all you need is to stay stress-free and confident. This book will teach you how to do it.
​#EUR

Analyst Ivan Karamazov is bearish on the EUR versus the USD and bullish on the EUR against the GBP.

🔸 EUR/USD
SELL 1.2310 SL 1.2365 TP1 1.2210 TP2 1.2155 TP3 1.2080
SELL 1.2355 SL 1.2410 TP1 1.2255 TP2 1.2155 TP3 1.2080

🔸 EUR/GBP
BUY 0.8925 SL 0.8870 TP 0.9015

@fbsanalytics
#WeeklyCryptoNews

Bitcoin is strengthening its positions. Breaking the important level of $10,000, it is climbing further. The next resistance is at $12,000, let’s wait and see.

🔸 Telegram is increasing its appetite. The company is going to raise $1.7 billion instead of $850 million in the second round of private ICO. There are talks that this amount of money will be enough to launch the blockchain and the cryptocurrency, so Telegram may refuse to hold the public ICO. Moreover, if the company fails to launch “TON” until October 19, 2019, investors will get their money back. But there is one small trick: the company will not be able to return all investments…

🔸 The hardfork Bitcoin Private was held on February 28. It is the first Bitcoin’s fork based on two blockchains: Bitcoin and ZClassic. The main feature is the usage of the zk-SNARK protocol for hiding transaction data.

🔸 According to Bloomberg, the Chinese government is planning to check accounts of citizens and companies to detect if they trade cryptocurrencies or participate in ICO. Accounts of lawbreakers will be blocked.

🔸 The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started a mass distribution of summons to everyone who is involved in blockchain and cryptocurrency deals. The aim is to get information about the cryptocurrency market for its better regulation.

🔸 Everyone wants his own blockchain. The head of Starbucks Howard Schultz declared that the company is going to create its own blockchain and cryptocurrency that will appear in a new payment app.

🔸 Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten announced a launch of its own cryptocurrency “Rakuten Coin”. The company is owned by Viber. It means that Telegram’s “gram” may meet a competition.

🔸 The big Canadian bank “Toronto-Dominion Bank” banned the cryptocurrency’s purchase by credit cards. There are already other six big banks in the world that enacted the same restriction.

🔸 Bittrex is enacting sanctions. Since March 9 the cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex will block accounts and cancel operations of residents of countries and territories that are under the US sanctions. They are North Korea, Iran, Syria, Cuba, and Crimea.

🔸 The Federal Ministry of Finance (Germany) said that purchases by cryptocurrencies will not be a subject of additional taxes. All cryptocurrencies are recognized as the equivalent of payment’s means.

🔸 A huge project of transition of all information about transports into blockchain is being launched in Dubai. The history of any car can be tracked starting from the factory and considering all accidents, repairs, resales, and other information.

🔺 Bitcoin $10,900 (+1.40%)
🔻 Ethereum $860.13 (-1.27%)
🔺 DASH $604.16 (+1.53%)
🔻 Litecoin $206.20 (-1.63%)

@fbsanalytics
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