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Market news & trade ideas & Live streams and more by FBS team!๐Ÿš€

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โ€‹Hello everyone!

We are rolling closer to the weekend but there are still plenty of trade opportunities on Friday. ๐Ÿ‘Œ

EUR/USD is disappointed by the weaker-than-expected PMIs (one of the regionโ€™s key economic indicators). As a result, thereโ€™s a reason for a correction down after the previous advance.

๐Ÿ‘ฑ๐Ÿ’ผ FBS analyst expects to pick up the pair at 1.1710 and buy with SL at 1.1655 and TP at 1.18, 1.1940 and 1.20.

๐Ÿ“… Later today, all eyes will be fixed on USD/CAD as traders await Canadian data release.
โ€‹โ€‹#BreakingNews

UK Prime Minister Theresa May: โ€œNo deal with the European Union is better than a bad deal.โ€
โ€‹GBP/USD fell below 1.31
โ€‹It's time for Saturday tips!

Have a look at these 1-candlestick patterns so that youโ€™ll know what to do when you see them on a chart.
#ECONOMICCALENDAR

๐Ÿ”” 5 important things you need to know about this week!

โ–ช ECB President Mario Draghiโ€™s Speeches (Mon, 16:00 MT time; Thu, 16:30 MT time) โ€“ current leader of the European central bank will make some comments on the current economic situation and monetary policy before the European parliament economic and monetary affairs committee, in Brussels. Draghiโ€™s announcements can surprise investors and traders.
โ–ซ Federal Reserveโ€™s Meeting (Wed, 21:00 MT time) โ€“ the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% and update its economic projections. The press conference of Chair Jerome Powell will start at 21:30 MT time. Volatility will spike in all of the USD currency pairs.
โ–ช Meeting of New Zealand Central Bank (Thu, 00:00 MT time) โ€“ the RBNZ is expected to hold its official rate at 1.75%. The presser will start at 01:00 MT time.
โ–ซ US statistics: Core Durable Goods Orders + Final GDP q/q (Thu, 15:30 MT time) โ€“ traders will get a glimpse into the US economy and get new opportunities to trade the USD.
โ–ช GBP Current Account (Fri, 11:30 MT time) โ€“ the forecast is not very optimistic for the GBP.

๐Ÿ”ฅ Hot topics:

๐Ÿ”ป The UK Finance ministry spokesman John McDonnell told that the second referendum on Brexit is still an option as it is likely to show peopleโ€™s opinion on the situation. Expect more Brexit-related volatility!

๐Ÿ”บ Oil set a 4-year high after OPEC rejected the claim of US president Trump to decrease the prices. The prices jumped as the US sanctions to Iran which limited the overall output.

๐Ÿ”ป The latest American and Chinese tariffs on each other came into effect today at 07:01 am MT time.
โ€‹#ForexNews

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank: โ€œDomestic price pressures are rising. Labor markets are tightening.โ€

Hawkish comments make EUR/USD surge above 1.18.
For how long are you trading on Forex market?
anonymous poll

Several months and counting ๐Ÿ‘ โ€“ 97
๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ 40%

I'm a novice, no longer than a month ๐Ÿ˜ณ โ€“ 76
๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ 31%

I'm an experienced trader, more than a year ๐Ÿ˜Ž โ€“ 71
๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ 29%

๐Ÿ‘ฅ 244 people voted so far.
โ€‹#EconomicCalendar

๐Ÿ”” Here are the 5 things you need to know about the Federal Reserveโ€™s meeting.

1โƒฃ The Fed's statement and the interest will be out at 21:00 MT time. The press conference will start at 21:30 MT time. You can watch the live broadcast here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm
2โƒฃ The market is almost 100% sure that the federal funds rate will be increased from 2% to 2.25%.
3โƒฃ The โ€˜moodโ€™ of the central bank will be the key: recognizing stronger economic growth (positive for USD) or worrying about trade wards (negative for the USD)? That is the question.
4โƒฃ The Fed will update โ€˜dot plotโ€™, i.e. its forecasts for the federal funds rate. Weโ€™ll find out how determined is the Fed to raise rates in December (December rate hike is positive for the USD).
5โƒฃ President Trump earlier criticized the Fedโ€™s rate increases. How will the Fed respond?

Get ready for active trading!
And what is your forecast for the USD? โฌ† or โฌ‡ ?
โ€‹๐Ÿ“ข Latest news: Fed lives up to marketโ€™s expectations

๐Ÿ”ธ The Fed raised interest rates for the third time this year, to 2.25%.
๐Ÿ”น The Fed expects another rate hike in December, 3 more in 2019, and one in 2020.
๐Ÿ”ธ The Fed dropped a reference in its statement to the word โ€œaccommodativeโ€ (although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later said policy was still accommodative).

What does it all mean?
Everything is in line with expectations. The Fedโ€™s meeting didnโ€™t give fuel for big new currency trends. With the diminishing fears of trade wars, traders may still try to get into riskier assets once they digest the news. So far, the USD fell versus the JPY, but rose against the CHF, the EUR, the GBP, and the riskier AUD and the NZD.
๐Ÿ’ก FBS analyst shared this trade idea for USD/JPY: SELL 112.60; SL 113.15; TP1 111.95 TP2 111.5 TP3 111.05.

Other topics
๐Ÿ”ป The EUR fell on a report that Italy may postpone a meeting on its 2019 budget plan. EUR/USD corrected down to trend line support at 1.1690. Further support is at 1.1645. Resistance is once again at 1.1725.
๐Ÿ”ป The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didnโ€™t change its policy, some local economic data came out negative. If NZD/USD slides below 0.6637, it will fall t0 0.6580.
โ€‹Will oil rise to $100?

๐Ÿ”บ Brent oil rose above $80 a barrel this week and got to the highest levels since the end of 2018.
๐Ÿ”บ Oil went up as OPEC didnโ€™t express desire to increase production despite President Donald Trumpโ€™s demand to lower prices.
๐Ÿ”บ In addition, more buyers of Iranian crude refuse to purchase it as the US sanctions will take full effect in November. If Iranian oil gets out of the market, supply will decline pushing the price further up.

๐Ÿ”ฎ The oilโ€™s advance woke up forecasters.
Patrick Pouyanne, the CEO of French energy giant Total, sees the level of $100 a barrel on the horizon for oil. Major trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. agrees that prices may spike over $100 during the next 3 months. Trafigura Group expects oil to hit $100 a barrel in early 2019.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, however, donโ€™t share this point of view. In their opinion, Brent will stabilize at $70-80 a barrel into the year-end as the factors mentioned above are not enough to push the price higher.

โ–ถ Brent has to get above resistance at $82 to keep pushing higher. Traders will keep watching the news, in particular, Trumpโ€™s comments and reaction to Iran sanctions.
โ€‹#ForexNews

โ€ผ The EUR is hit by Italian budget problems.

In short: Italian government agreed to set next yearโ€™s budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP (vs 2%). This can cause the total amount of the nationโ€™s public debt to rise and produce anger from the European Union. Thereโ€™s also the risk that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria resigns.

The level of 1.15 became closer. S&R levels are marked on the chart.
โ€‹Hello traders!
Hope your week began great!
๐Ÿ˜œ


โ— As you probably heard, the key news for today is all about NAFTA renegotiations.
๐Ÿ’ฌ Canada and the USA finally reached an agreement on Sunday. Since now itโ€™s not NAFTA, but United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA). An increase of dairy access to the Canadian market and protection of Canadian cultural industries are some of the key points of these negotiations. Tariff decisions on steel and aluminum will be conducted in a different letter. The US president Trump will sign the final version at the end of November.

๐Ÿ“‰ As a result, USD/CAD fell to its May lows. Up to this now, it has been testing the support at 1.2787. Any positive news on the USD will bring bulls back to the resistance at 1.2847.
Hello dear traders!
Are you curious about the current situation at markets?๐Ÿ˜ฑ

๐Ÿ”ท The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The key points of the RBA statement remained unchanged from the previous month. As a result, the pair AUD/USD has continued to fall downwards.
๐Ÿ”ถBrexit is in the arena. A former secretary of State for foreign and commonwealth affairs Boris Johnson will give a speech during the Conservative party conference at 15:00 MT time. He is expected to criticize Mayโ€™s plan. GBP may fall further down!
๐Ÿ”ท The main event for the USD is Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech today at 19:45 MT time. Euro will be affected by the today's meeting of Italian prime minister with key ministers at 20:00 MT time. Both events will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair. Trade EUR/USD!

Have a profitable trading๐Ÿ™
โ€‹#BREAKINGNEWS

๐Ÿ’ผTherese May will be speaking at the Conservative Party Conference at 13:30 MT time. Follow the speech and have a look at the GBP/USD pair!

๐Ÿ™‹Confident Theresa - strong GBP
๐Ÿ™†Uncertainties - weak GBP
โ€‹#TRADERSLANG

Dear traders! We created a new section to share trade slang with you๐Ÿ˜

Dead cat bounce โ€“ the situation when price increases for a short period of time after a prolonged decline and returns to the downtrend afterward.

Please give your feedback on the new sectionโค
Happy Thursday!

The USD hit an 11-month high against the yen and remained strong versus other currencies. It was boosted by the upbeat US data and positive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

๐Ÿ’ก Trade ideas to consider

USD/JPY: BUY โ€“ 113.40; SL 112.85; TP1 114.40, TP2 115.30, TP3 116.30.
GBP/USD: SELL โ€“ 1.2785; SL 1.2840; TP1 1.2685, TP2 1.2640, TP3 1.2570.
โ€‹Forecast for the British Pound

๐Ÿ“ 80% of currency strategists polled by Reuters said the GBP will be higher than now in a year, that is, by the time the UK leaves the European Union. The non-deal Brexit risks were already priced in.
๐Ÿ“Š Despite the wide range of options in the survey, only 2 out of 64 forecasters said the British pound could reach 2016 highs at around $1.50 before the Referendum on Brexit. The overall anticipation of the future price by strategists has fallen since the last poll in April.
๐Ÿ“ˆ At the moment, GBP/USD is rising after the news about the new British proposal on Irish border. The next resistance is 1.3080. In case of negative news, the support is at 1.297 (50-day MA).
โ€‹Hello, traders! Hope youโ€™re having a good day!
๐Ÿ˜‰
๐Ÿ•ž As you may probably know, the level of non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be released today at 15:30 MT time. It is the leading indicator of consumer spending, that is why it can influence the USD significantly.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐Ÿ“ The NFP in August reached 201,000 payrolls.
Letโ€™s check what major banks predict about the September digits:
๐Ÿ“Œ Goldman Sachs โ€“ 175,000.
โ€œStrong September employment report, decline in the unemployment rate, firm average hourly earnings, despite the hurricane Florenceโ€
๐Ÿ“Œ Morgan Stanley โ€“ 178,000.
โ€œGrowth of the employment level, the lowest levels of initial jobless claims, limited hurricane Florence impactโ€
๐Ÿ“Œ Amherst Pierpont โ€“ 190,000.
โ€œA slight decline due to the hurricane Florence influenceโ€
๐Ÿ“Œ Wells Fargo โ€“ 210,000.
โ€œRepeat of the August levels, record low levels of initial jobless claims, decline in unemployment rate to 3.8%โ€
If actual figures are greater than the forecasts, the USD will increase.
๐Ÿ’ธ
Up to now EUR/USD is falling towards the support at 1.1413. If NFP beats the forecasts, the pair will fall below this level. ๐Ÿ“‰Otherwise, it will go above the resistance at 1.1507.๐Ÿ“ˆ
โ€‹#EconomicCalendar

USD fell as NFP disappointed traders

- Nonfarm payrolls accounted for 134K versus the forecast of 185K.
- However, there are some good news: unemployment rate declined to 3.7% and average earnings rose by 0.3%.

The USD declined but we donโ€™t think that itโ€™s a start of a new trend.
#ECONOMICCALENDAR
5 things to know this weekโ—
๐Ÿ“Œ 1. Australian NAB business confidence level (Tue, 3:30 MT time) - The digits for the previous period have been the lowest since the beginning of the year. It is connected with trade wars between the US and China and falling prices on the housing market. Will this monthโ€™s data outperform the previous one?
๐Ÿ“Œ 2. The August GDP and manufacturing production level for Great Britain (Wed, 11:30 MT time) โ€“ The GDP is expected to increase by 0.1% after reaching 0.3% in July. At the same time manufacturing production is forecast to expand by 0.1%. Remember that if the actual numbers are higher than the forecasts, the GBP will grow.
๐Ÿ“Œ 3. The US producer price index (PPI) (Wed, 15:30 MT time) - economists expect the indicator to increase by 0.2% in September.
๐Ÿ“Œ 4. The US consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI (Thu, 15:30 MT time) โ€“ CPI as well as core CPI will grow by 0.2% in September according to experts.
๐Ÿ“Œ 5. The US crude oil inventories (Thu, 18:00 MT time) โ€“ The change in the number of oil barrels have an effect on the prices of Brent and WTI. It affects the Canadian dollar too. Do not forget to follow USD/CAD!
โšก Hot topics:
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Further trade tensions between China and the United States are coming. Right now the USA is seeking the way to prevent Japan, the UK and the EU from making separate trade agreements in order to isolate โ€œnon-marketโ€ China.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italian crisis does not mean Italy is going to leave the EU any time soon.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง More details on Brexit are anticipated as the Brexit summit is planned on October 17.
Traders, are you excited for this week?
๐Ÿ˜‰
Have a good Tuesday, everyone!

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น The main focus for today is on the meeting of the Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria with lawmakers on the government fiscal outline. The government set deficit target at 2.4% of GDP for 2019 and 2.1% for 2020. At the moment EUR/USD is declining. ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Keep an eye on the speech of the UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab today during the session at the Commons at 15:30 MT time as he may comment on the Irish border solution.

๐Ÿ’ก Trade ideas to consider:
GBP/USD: BUY โ€” 1.3040; SL โ€” 1.3020; TP1 โ€” 1.3100; TP2 โ€” 1.3170
EUR/USD:SELL โ€” 1.1470/80; SL โ€” 1.1500; TP1 โ€” 1.1390; TP2 โ€” 1.1360