Hello, traders! Here’s you Forex market update, trade well!
Topic of the day: US-China trade war
🇺🇸 vs 🇨🇳
- New tariffs. Trump’s administration officially announced 10% tariff on additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods starting from Sep 24. In 2019, the duties will rise to 25%.
- China will likely fight back. There are no news about its response yet, but earlier Chinese authorities have said that they would retaliate with levies on $60 billion of US goods.
- The reaction in currency pairs was muted as traders were ready to such turn of events. China is keeping a firm grip on the yuan, the news flow out of Europe continues to be positive, which is helping European currencies.
💡 Technical analysis & ideas
- The USD index formed a gap down and went below 100-day MA – a negative sign.
- If EUR/USD closes above 1.1720, it will be able rise to 1.1750 and 1.18. Support is at 1.1668.
- GBP/USD is testing the key resistance at 1.3175 (100-day MA). If it manages to get above this point, we’ll target 1.3215 and 1.3280.
- FBS analyst recommends selling USD/CAD at 1.2985 with a SL at 1.3040 and TP at 1.2885, 1.2730, and 1.2670.
Topic of the day: US-China trade war
🇺🇸 vs 🇨🇳
- New tariffs. Trump’s administration officially announced 10% tariff on additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods starting from Sep 24. In 2019, the duties will rise to 25%.
- China will likely fight back. There are no news about its response yet, but earlier Chinese authorities have said that they would retaliate with levies on $60 billion of US goods.
- The reaction in currency pairs was muted as traders were ready to such turn of events. China is keeping a firm grip on the yuan, the news flow out of Europe continues to be positive, which is helping European currencies.
💡 Technical analysis & ideas
- The USD index formed a gap down and went below 100-day MA – a negative sign.
- If EUR/USD closes above 1.1720, it will be able rise to 1.1750 and 1.18. Support is at 1.1668.
- GBP/USD is testing the key resistance at 1.3175 (100-day MA). If it manages to get above this point, we’ll target 1.3215 and 1.3280.
- FBS analyst recommends selling USD/CAD at 1.2985 with a SL at 1.3040 and TP at 1.2885, 1.2730, and 1.2670.
#ForexTips
Here’s a wise quote about trading:
The most important price on any chart is the price at which you entered the market. People become strongly, keenly and emotionally attached to the price at which they bought or sold. © Steve Nison
📗 Find out more about trader’s psychology and dealing with emotions from our educational article: https://fbs.com/analytics/guidebooks/traders-psychology-59
Here’s a wise quote about trading:
The most important price on any chart is the price at which you entered the market. People become strongly, keenly and emotionally attached to the price at which they bought or sold. © Steve Nison
📗 Find out more about trader’s psychology and dealing with emotions from our educational article: https://fbs.com/analytics/guidebooks/traders-psychology-59
FBS
Trader's psychology and key rules of Forex trading
Find out how to look at the Forex market clearly and think in a cold-headed fashion. Learn the psychological techniques of successful traders.
Hello everyone!
We are rolling closer to the weekend but there are still plenty of trade opportunities on Friday. 👌
EUR/USD is disappointed by the weaker-than-expected PMIs (one of the region’s key economic indicators). As a result, there’s a reason for a correction down after the previous advance.
👱💼 FBS analyst expects to pick up the pair at 1.1710 and buy with SL at 1.1655 and TP at 1.18, 1.1940 and 1.20.
📅 Later today, all eyes will be fixed on USD/CAD as traders await Canadian data release.
We are rolling closer to the weekend but there are still plenty of trade opportunities on Friday. 👌
EUR/USD is disappointed by the weaker-than-expected PMIs (one of the region’s key economic indicators). As a result, there’s a reason for a correction down after the previous advance.
👱💼 FBS analyst expects to pick up the pair at 1.1710 and buy with SL at 1.1655 and TP at 1.18, 1.1940 and 1.20.
📅 Later today, all eyes will be fixed on USD/CAD as traders await Canadian data release.
#BreakingNews
UK Prime Minister Theresa May: “No deal with the European Union is better than a bad deal.”
UK Prime Minister Theresa May: “No deal with the European Union is better than a bad deal.”
It's time for Saturday tips!
Have a look at these 1-candlestick patterns so that you’ll know what to do when you see them on a chart.
Have a look at these 1-candlestick patterns so that you’ll know what to do when you see them on a chart.
#ECONOMICCALENDAR
🔔 5 important things you need to know about this week!
▪ ECB President Mario Draghi’s Speeches (Mon, 16:00 MT time; Thu, 16:30 MT time) – current leader of the European central bank will make some comments on the current economic situation and monetary policy before the European parliament economic and monetary affairs committee, in Brussels. Draghi’s announcements can surprise investors and traders.
▫ Federal Reserve’s Meeting (Wed, 21:00 MT time) – the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% and update its economic projections. The press conference of Chair Jerome Powell will start at 21:30 MT time. Volatility will spike in all of the USD currency pairs.
▪ Meeting of New Zealand Central Bank (Thu, 00:00 MT time) – the RBNZ is expected to hold its official rate at 1.75%. The presser will start at 01:00 MT time.
▫ US statistics: Core Durable Goods Orders + Final GDP q/q (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – traders will get a glimpse into the US economy and get new opportunities to trade the USD.
▪ GBP Current Account (Fri, 11:30 MT time) – the forecast is not very optimistic for the GBP.
🔥 Hot topics:
🔻 The UK Finance ministry spokesman John McDonnell told that the second referendum on Brexit is still an option as it is likely to show people’s opinion on the situation. Expect more Brexit-related volatility!
🔺 Oil set a 4-year high after OPEC rejected the claim of US president Trump to decrease the prices. The prices jumped as the US sanctions to Iran which limited the overall output.
🔻 The latest American and Chinese tariffs on each other came into effect today at 07:01 am MT time.
🔔 5 important things you need to know about this week!
▪ ECB President Mario Draghi’s Speeches (Mon, 16:00 MT time; Thu, 16:30 MT time) – current leader of the European central bank will make some comments on the current economic situation and monetary policy before the European parliament economic and monetary affairs committee, in Brussels. Draghi’s announcements can surprise investors and traders.
▫ Federal Reserve’s Meeting (Wed, 21:00 MT time) – the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% and update its economic projections. The press conference of Chair Jerome Powell will start at 21:30 MT time. Volatility will spike in all of the USD currency pairs.
▪ Meeting of New Zealand Central Bank (Thu, 00:00 MT time) – the RBNZ is expected to hold its official rate at 1.75%. The presser will start at 01:00 MT time.
▫ US statistics: Core Durable Goods Orders + Final GDP q/q (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – traders will get a glimpse into the US economy and get new opportunities to trade the USD.
▪ GBP Current Account (Fri, 11:30 MT time) – the forecast is not very optimistic for the GBP.
🔥 Hot topics:
🔻 The UK Finance ministry spokesman John McDonnell told that the second referendum on Brexit is still an option as it is likely to show people’s opinion on the situation. Expect more Brexit-related volatility!
🔺 Oil set a 4-year high after OPEC rejected the claim of US president Trump to decrease the prices. The prices jumped as the US sanctions to Iran which limited the overall output.
🔻 The latest American and Chinese tariffs on each other came into effect today at 07:01 am MT time.
#ForexNews
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank: “Domestic price pressures are rising. Labor markets are tightening.”
Hawkish comments make EUR/USD surge above 1.18.
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank: “Domestic price pressures are rising. Labor markets are tightening.”
Hawkish comments make EUR/USD surge above 1.18.
FBS Analytics via @vote
For how long are you trading on Forex market?
anonymous poll
Several months and counting 👍 – 97
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 40%
I'm a novice, no longer than a month 😳 – 76
👍👍👍👍👍 31%
I'm an experienced trader, more than a year 😎 – 71
👍👍👍👍👍 29%
👥 244 people voted so far.
anonymous poll
Several months and counting 👍 – 97
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 40%
I'm a novice, no longer than a month 😳 – 76
👍👍👍👍👍 31%
I'm an experienced trader, more than a year 😎 – 71
👍👍👍👍👍 29%
👥 244 people voted so far.
#EconomicCalendar
🔔 Here are the 5 things you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s meeting.
1⃣ The Fed's statement and the interest will be out at 21:00 MT time. The press conference will start at 21:30 MT time. You can watch the live broadcast here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm
2⃣ The market is almost 100% sure that the federal funds rate will be increased from 2% to 2.25%.
3⃣ The ‘mood’ of the central bank will be the key: recognizing stronger economic growth (positive for USD) or worrying about trade wards (negative for the USD)? That is the question.
4⃣ The Fed will update ‘dot plot’, i.e. its forecasts for the federal funds rate. We’ll find out how determined is the Fed to raise rates in December (December rate hike is positive for the USD).
5⃣ President Trump earlier criticized the Fed’s rate increases. How will the Fed respond?
Get ready for active trading!
And what is your forecast for the USD? ⬆ or ⬇ ?
🔔 Here are the 5 things you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s meeting.
1⃣ The Fed's statement and the interest will be out at 21:00 MT time. The press conference will start at 21:30 MT time. You can watch the live broadcast here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm
2⃣ The market is almost 100% sure that the federal funds rate will be increased from 2% to 2.25%.
3⃣ The ‘mood’ of the central bank will be the key: recognizing stronger economic growth (positive for USD) or worrying about trade wards (negative for the USD)? That is the question.
4⃣ The Fed will update ‘dot plot’, i.e. its forecasts for the federal funds rate. We’ll find out how determined is the Fed to raise rates in December (December rate hike is positive for the USD).
5⃣ President Trump earlier criticized the Fed’s rate increases. How will the Fed respond?
Get ready for active trading!
And what is your forecast for the USD? ⬆ or ⬇ ?
📢 Latest news: Fed lives up to market’s expectations
🔸 The Fed raised interest rates for the third time this year, to 2.25%.
🔹 The Fed expects another rate hike in December, 3 more in 2019, and one in 2020.
🔸 The Fed dropped a reference in its statement to the word “accommodative” (although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later said policy was still accommodative).
What does it all mean?
Everything is in line with expectations. The Fed’s meeting didn’t give fuel for big new currency trends. With the diminishing fears of trade wars, traders may still try to get into riskier assets once they digest the news. So far, the USD fell versus the JPY, but rose against the CHF, the EUR, the GBP, and the riskier AUD and the NZD.
💡 FBS analyst shared this trade idea for USD/JPY: SELL 112.60; SL 113.15; TP1 111.95 TP2 111.5 TP3 111.05.
Other topics
🔻 The EUR fell on a report that Italy may postpone a meeting on its 2019 budget plan. EUR/USD corrected down to trend line support at 1.1690. Further support is at 1.1645. Resistance is once again at 1.1725.
🔻 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t change its policy, some local economic data came out negative. If NZD/USD slides below 0.6637, it will fall t0 0.6580.
🔸 The Fed raised interest rates for the third time this year, to 2.25%.
🔹 The Fed expects another rate hike in December, 3 more in 2019, and one in 2020.
🔸 The Fed dropped a reference in its statement to the word “accommodative” (although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later said policy was still accommodative).
What does it all mean?
Everything is in line with expectations. The Fed’s meeting didn’t give fuel for big new currency trends. With the diminishing fears of trade wars, traders may still try to get into riskier assets once they digest the news. So far, the USD fell versus the JPY, but rose against the CHF, the EUR, the GBP, and the riskier AUD and the NZD.
💡 FBS analyst shared this trade idea for USD/JPY: SELL 112.60; SL 113.15; TP1 111.95 TP2 111.5 TP3 111.05.
Other topics
🔻 The EUR fell on a report that Italy may postpone a meeting on its 2019 budget plan. EUR/USD corrected down to trend line support at 1.1690. Further support is at 1.1645. Resistance is once again at 1.1725.
🔻 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t change its policy, some local economic data came out negative. If NZD/USD slides below 0.6637, it will fall t0 0.6580.
Will oil rise to $100?
🔺 Brent oil rose above $80 a barrel this week and got to the highest levels since the end of 2018.
🔺 Oil went up as OPEC didn’t express desire to increase production despite President Donald Trump’s demand to lower prices.
🔺 In addition, more buyers of Iranian crude refuse to purchase it as the US sanctions will take full effect in November. If Iranian oil gets out of the market, supply will decline pushing the price further up.
🔮 The oil’s advance woke up forecasters.
Patrick Pouyanne, the CEO of French energy giant Total, sees the level of $100 a barrel on the horizon for oil. Major trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. agrees that prices may spike over $100 during the next 3 months. Trafigura Group expects oil to hit $100 a barrel in early 2019.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, however, don’t share this point of view. In their opinion, Brent will stabilize at $70-80 a barrel into the year-end as the factors mentioned above are not enough to push the price higher.
▶ Brent has to get above resistance at $82 to keep pushing higher. Traders will keep watching the news, in particular, Trump’s comments and reaction to Iran sanctions.
🔺 Brent oil rose above $80 a barrel this week and got to the highest levels since the end of 2018.
🔺 Oil went up as OPEC didn’t express desire to increase production despite President Donald Trump’s demand to lower prices.
🔺 In addition, more buyers of Iranian crude refuse to purchase it as the US sanctions will take full effect in November. If Iranian oil gets out of the market, supply will decline pushing the price further up.
🔮 The oil’s advance woke up forecasters.
Patrick Pouyanne, the CEO of French energy giant Total, sees the level of $100 a barrel on the horizon for oil. Major trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. agrees that prices may spike over $100 during the next 3 months. Trafigura Group expects oil to hit $100 a barrel in early 2019.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, however, don’t share this point of view. In their opinion, Brent will stabilize at $70-80 a barrel into the year-end as the factors mentioned above are not enough to push the price higher.
▶ Brent has to get above resistance at $82 to keep pushing higher. Traders will keep watching the news, in particular, Trump’s comments and reaction to Iran sanctions.
#ForexNews
‼ The EUR is hit by Italian budget problems.
In short: Italian government agreed to set next year’s budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP (vs 2%). This can cause the total amount of the nation’s public debt to rise and produce anger from the European Union. There’s also the risk that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria resigns.
The level of 1.15 became closer. S&R levels are marked on the chart.
‼ The EUR is hit by Italian budget problems.
In short: Italian government agreed to set next year’s budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP (vs 2%). This can cause the total amount of the nation’s public debt to rise and produce anger from the European Union. There’s also the risk that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria resigns.
The level of 1.15 became closer. S&R levels are marked on the chart.
Hello traders!
Hope your week began great!
😜
❗ As you probably heard, the key news for today is all about NAFTA renegotiations.
💬 Canada and the USA finally reached an agreement on Sunday. Since now it’s not NAFTA, but United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA). An increase of dairy access to the Canadian market and protection of Canadian cultural industries are some of the key points of these negotiations. Tariff decisions on steel and aluminum will be conducted in a different letter. The US president Trump will sign the final version at the end of November.
📉 As a result, USD/CAD fell to its May lows. Up to this now, it has been testing the support at 1.2787. Any positive news on the USD will bring bulls back to the resistance at 1.2847.
Hope your week began great!
😜
❗ As you probably heard, the key news for today is all about NAFTA renegotiations.
💬 Canada and the USA finally reached an agreement on Sunday. Since now it’s not NAFTA, but United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA). An increase of dairy access to the Canadian market and protection of Canadian cultural industries are some of the key points of these negotiations. Tariff decisions on steel and aluminum will be conducted in a different letter. The US president Trump will sign the final version at the end of November.
📉 As a result, USD/CAD fell to its May lows. Up to this now, it has been testing the support at 1.2787. Any positive news on the USD will bring bulls back to the resistance at 1.2847.
Hello dear traders!
Are you curious about the current situation at markets?😱
🔷 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The key points of the RBA statement remained unchanged from the previous month. As a result, the pair AUD/USD has continued to fall downwards.
🔶Brexit is in the arena. A former secretary of State for foreign and commonwealth affairs Boris Johnson will give a speech during the Conservative party conference at 15:00 MT time. He is expected to criticize May’s plan. GBP may fall further down!
🔷 The main event for the USD is Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech today at 19:45 MT time. Euro will be affected by the today's meeting of Italian prime minister with key ministers at 20:00 MT time. Both events will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair. Trade EUR/USD!
Have a profitable trading🙏
Are you curious about the current situation at markets?😱
🔷 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The key points of the RBA statement remained unchanged from the previous month. As a result, the pair AUD/USD has continued to fall downwards.
🔶Brexit is in the arena. A former secretary of State for foreign and commonwealth affairs Boris Johnson will give a speech during the Conservative party conference at 15:00 MT time. He is expected to criticize May’s plan. GBP may fall further down!
🔷 The main event for the USD is Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech today at 19:45 MT time. Euro will be affected by the today's meeting of Italian prime minister with key ministers at 20:00 MT time. Both events will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair. Trade EUR/USD!
Have a profitable trading🙏
#BREAKINGNEWS
💼Therese May will be speaking at the Conservative Party Conference at 13:30 MT time. Follow the speech and have a look at the GBP/USD pair!
🙋Confident Theresa - strong GBP
🙆Uncertainties - weak GBP
💼Therese May will be speaking at the Conservative Party Conference at 13:30 MT time. Follow the speech and have a look at the GBP/USD pair!
🙋Confident Theresa - strong GBP
🙆Uncertainties - weak GBP
#TRADERSLANG
Dear traders! We created a new section to share trade slang with you😏
Dead cat bounce – the situation when price increases for a short period of time after a prolonged decline and returns to the downtrend afterward.
Please give your feedback on the new section❤
Dear traders! We created a new section to share trade slang with you😏
Dead cat bounce – the situation when price increases for a short period of time after a prolonged decline and returns to the downtrend afterward.
Please give your feedback on the new section❤
Happy Thursday!
The USD hit an 11-month high against the yen and remained strong versus other currencies. It was boosted by the upbeat US data and positive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
💡 Trade ideas to consider
USD/JPY: BUY – 113.40; SL 112.85; TP1 114.40, TP2 115.30, TP3 116.30.
GBP/USD: SELL – 1.2785; SL 1.2840; TP1 1.2685, TP2 1.2640, TP3 1.2570.
The USD hit an 11-month high against the yen and remained strong versus other currencies. It was boosted by the upbeat US data and positive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
💡 Trade ideas to consider
USD/JPY: BUY – 113.40; SL 112.85; TP1 114.40, TP2 115.30, TP3 116.30.
GBP/USD: SELL – 1.2785; SL 1.2840; TP1 1.2685, TP2 1.2640, TP3 1.2570.
Forecast for the British Pound
📝 80% of currency strategists polled by Reuters said the GBP will be higher than now in a year, that is, by the time the UK leaves the European Union. The non-deal Brexit risks were already priced in.
📊 Despite the wide range of options in the survey, only 2 out of 64 forecasters said the British pound could reach 2016 highs at around $1.50 before the Referendum on Brexit. The overall anticipation of the future price by strategists has fallen since the last poll in April.
📈 At the moment, GBP/USD is rising after the news about the new British proposal on Irish border. The next resistance is 1.3080. In case of negative news, the support is at 1.297 (50-day MA).
📝 80% of currency strategists polled by Reuters said the GBP will be higher than now in a year, that is, by the time the UK leaves the European Union. The non-deal Brexit risks were already priced in.
📊 Despite the wide range of options in the survey, only 2 out of 64 forecasters said the British pound could reach 2016 highs at around $1.50 before the Referendum on Brexit. The overall anticipation of the future price by strategists has fallen since the last poll in April.
📈 At the moment, GBP/USD is rising after the news about the new British proposal on Irish border. The next resistance is 1.3080. In case of negative news, the support is at 1.297 (50-day MA).
Hello, traders! Hope you’re having a good day!
😉
🕞 As you may probably know, the level of non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be released today at 15:30 MT time. It is the leading indicator of consumer spending, that is why it can influence the USD significantly.
🇺🇸
📝 The NFP in August reached 201,000 payrolls.
Let’s check what major banks predict about the September digits:
📌 Goldman Sachs – 175,000.
“Strong September employment report, decline in the unemployment rate, firm average hourly earnings, despite the hurricane Florence”
📌 Morgan Stanley – 178,000.
“Growth of the employment level, the lowest levels of initial jobless claims, limited hurricane Florence impact”
📌 Amherst Pierpont – 190,000.
“A slight decline due to the hurricane Florence influence”
📌 Wells Fargo – 210,000.
“Repeat of the August levels, record low levels of initial jobless claims, decline in unemployment rate to 3.8%”
If actual figures are greater than the forecasts, the USD will increase.
💸
Up to now EUR/USD is falling towards the support at 1.1413. If NFP beats the forecasts, the pair will fall below this level. 📉Otherwise, it will go above the resistance at 1.1507.📈
😉
🕞 As you may probably know, the level of non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be released today at 15:30 MT time. It is the leading indicator of consumer spending, that is why it can influence the USD significantly.
🇺🇸
📝 The NFP in August reached 201,000 payrolls.
Let’s check what major banks predict about the September digits:
📌 Goldman Sachs – 175,000.
“Strong September employment report, decline in the unemployment rate, firm average hourly earnings, despite the hurricane Florence”
📌 Morgan Stanley – 178,000.
“Growth of the employment level, the lowest levels of initial jobless claims, limited hurricane Florence impact”
📌 Amherst Pierpont – 190,000.
“A slight decline due to the hurricane Florence influence”
📌 Wells Fargo – 210,000.
“Repeat of the August levels, record low levels of initial jobless claims, decline in unemployment rate to 3.8%”
If actual figures are greater than the forecasts, the USD will increase.
💸
Up to now EUR/USD is falling towards the support at 1.1413. If NFP beats the forecasts, the pair will fall below this level. 📉Otherwise, it will go above the resistance at 1.1507.📈
