FBS Analytics
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Market news & trade ideas & Live streams and more by FBS team!🚀

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📶 Coming up next: Bank of Canada’s meeting

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time today. According to most forecasts, the central bank will raise Overnight Rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. Still, there’s always a possibility that economists are wrong. That’s why we outline 3 scenarios for trading USD/CAD today:

1⃣ – BOC raises the rate by 25 points but will diminish the importance of this decision. Such outcome will be more or less neutral for USD/CAD.

2⃣ – BOC raises the rate by 25 points and hints on further rate hikes in the near future. USD/CAD will go down to 1.2360 (next support: 1.2260).

2⃣ – BOC will keep the rate unchanged but announces plans to raise it in March. USD/CAD will jump towards 1.2500 in the short term.
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💹 Currency market: update for Jan. 18

🔸 EUR/USD fell this week after it failed to settle above 1.2300. There are first signs that the ECB is concerned with the euro’s strength. Watch at support in the 1.2200 area: it has been successfully holding for a while now. The next support is at 1.2110.

🔸 GBP/USD spiked to 1.3942 on Wednesday on the market’s positive sentiment, but then returned to 1.3800 as traders watch Brexit developments.

🔸 USD/JPY recovered from the long-term support line around 110.30 and got above 111.00. FBS analyst Ivan Karamazov shared this trade idea: buy at 112.10 with SL at 111.55 and TP at 113.00, 114.30 and 115.00.

🔸 AUD/USD is on the upside, but below Wednesday’s high at 0.8022. Australian labor market data came out mixed: employment growth exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate went surprisingly up as well.

🔸 Chinese economic growth came out at 6.8% vs. the forecast of 6.7%.

🔸 USD/CAD formed a long-legged doji candle on Wednesday. The market is in the situation of indecision in the 1.2440 area. The BOC raised Overnight Rate to 1.25% but said that further rate hikes will be done with caution. The decision and announcement didn’t surprise the market.

🔸 Bitcoin remains under pressure after its spectacular decline. BTC/USD met resistance at $11,667 and then touched $10,530. Concerns about Bitcoin trading in Asian countries continue to drive the cryptocurrency down.

@fbsanalytics
Saxo Bank analyst Kay Van-Petersen expects Bitcoin to peak between $50,000 and $100,000 in 2018. Do you agree with this prediction?
anonymous poll

Yes, it will go sky-high – 37
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 51%

No way! – 35
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 49%

👥 72 people voted so far.
USD/JPY: The 21 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so there's a "Shooting Star" pattern. In this case, we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as the next bearish target. @fbsanalytics
GBP/USD: There's a developing bearish correction, so the market is likely to test support at 1.3834 during the day. Then bulls will probably try to push the pair up to 1.4011 - 1.4089. @fbsanalytics
USD fell, but what’s with EUR?

American currency fell to 3-year low as Donald Trump’s top economic advisors spoke in favor of weaker USD at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

In the meantime, EUR/USD is awaiting the European Central Bank’s press conference at 15:30 MT time. Technically the euro is now overbought and already reached many bullish targets.

The pair will thus easily fall if ECB president Mario Draghi expresses concerns about the euro’s strength – such possibility is high. If, however, Draghi is optimistic about the European economy and doesn’t mention the euro, EUR/USD may bounce towards 1.2600 in the short-term (weaker USD will help).
EUR/USD approached 1.25 as Mario Draghi said that inflation will rise gradually. Volatility remains high and all may easily change!
Watch it live: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html#
Trade signals for #eurusd

We have 2 trade ideas right now.

1. Idea from Ms. Tatyana Norkina
Buy — 1.2420/30; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2460; TP2 — 1.2530
Notice that the pair has already reached the first target. If you don’t have a positioned already opened, you might not want to enter now unless we return to the entry point.

2. Idea from Mr. Ivan Karamazov
Sell — 1.2360; SL — 1.2415; TP1 — 1.2305; TP2 — 1.2200
This is a pending order. If the euro meets resistance and reverses down, this will be a hot trade.
#WeeklyCryptoNews

We have gathered the most interesting news of this week for you. Enjoy!

🔸 Some fun. Let’s start with an unbelievable prediction about Bitcoin. A General director of Xapo Wences Casares forecasts the price of Bitcoin at $1 million. At the same time, he supposes that a chance of Bitcoin’s success is 50%, and fail – 20%.

🔸 Telegram is still on hype. Media is giving new predictions about the Telegram pre-ICO. Numbers have risen to $3.8 billion instead of $850 million. We are waiting for a confirmation from P. Durov on an account “Antiscam” (@notoscam).

🔸 Cutting commission. Popular services like Blockchain .info reduced recommended commission for middle-size transactions in Bitcoin to $1. In future, SegWit and Lightning Network will make commission even lower.

🔸 Russia is keeping up. The country is going to launch a blockchain-project on a registration of real estate in Moscow. It should be one of the biggest practical application of blockchain in Russia or maybe in the world.

🔸 Mining does not stand still. A new generation of mining equipment is developed by Japanese corporation GMO Internet Group – 12-nanometer mining chips.

🔸 An old news with the new data. The second wave of talk about a ban on anonymous trading in South Korea shook up the market. Now we know the exact date of the law –January 30, 2018.

🔸 Today's news: Japanese exchange Coincheck halted trading of all coins except Bitcoin. Bloomberg says that the exchange is not available for comments at this time.

The quotes of main cryptocurrencies:

Bitcoin $10,615 (🔻 6,39%)
Ethereum $1,003 (🔻 5,09%)
Litecoin $169 (🔻 6,91%)
Dash 760$ (🔻 $6,17%)

@fbsanalytics
​​#EconomicCalendar

It’s too early to rest! The end of the week is full of events:

• 15:30 MT time. Important data will be delivered today. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce quarterly GDP growth numbers. If the actual number is greater than the forecast one (+3.0%), the US dollar will appreciate. If the figure disappoints, the USD will suffer. However, that won’t bother Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who has recently said that a weak dollar benefits American trade. So let’s see.

• 13:00 MT time. The financial world was waiting for it for so long! A speech of Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum. Let’s follow it together: http://bit.ly/2BuOof4

• 16:00 MT time. Signals for GBP and JPY traders! Mark Carney – the head of the BOE – and Haruhiko Kuroda – the head of the BOJ – are giving their speeches in Davos during a panel discussion “Global Economic Outlook”. They will cause volatility, so be careful!
​​Dollar ahead of the Fed’s meeting

🔸 USD is set for the biggest monthly loss in 2 years. Donald Trump’s speech didn’t give traders any reasons to buy the greenback.

🔸 The Federal Reserve will announce results of its meeting at 21:00 MT time. This is the last meeting for Janet Yellen as the Fed’s chair. There will be no press conference, only the statement.

🔸 At the moment of writing, the USD remains near lows versus major currencies.

🔸 There a possibility of more hawkish comments today, so USD has a chance for short-term correction up. However, analysts at Commerzbank “are still seeing a broad round of USD weakness and that may also be because of an undertone of risk aversion in the markets.”

Some links:

📈 Live Elliott wave analysis (start at 16:00 MT time): http://bit.ly/2BELlRz
📊 What to expect from the Fed today? http://bit.ly/2GB54pe
👦 Who’s the next Chair of the Fed? http://bit.ly/2DRX6dC
Trade ideas for JPY
🇯🇵

🔸 EUR/JPY
BUY 136.25 SL 135.70 TP1 137.25 TP2 138.10

🔸 USD/JPY
SELL 110.10 SL 110.65 TP 109.10 TP2 108.20
SELL 110.65 SL 111.20 TP1 109.65 TP2 108.65
#WeeklyCryptoNews

A lot of shaking events happened in the cryptocurrency market during the week. Be informed!

🔸 Why now? Bloomberg and some other media gave information that Bitfinex was called to court by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as it propped up prices of cryptocurrencies by issuing a virtual currency Tether that was not secured. The interesting fact is Bitfinex received a court summon in December, but news appeared only now. It brings some thoughts.

🔸 Even more. Tether stopped cooperation with the audit company Friedman LLP. The official reason is the inability of the company to conduct an audit in a timely manner. Bad situation for Tether because of the talks around unsecured tokens USDT.

🔸 More ban on cryptocurrency. Ads of cryptocurrency and ICO are banned on Facebook and Instagram. The aim of it is to protect users from scam. However, the ban is supposed to be canceled soon after good offers are filtered from the bad ones.

🔸 No more anonymity. Bitfury Group announced a service Crystal for bitcoin-transactions tracking. Everyone will be able to identify suspicious transfers and addresses that may have been involved in illegal activities.

🔸 Delay. ICO KODAKCoin that was appointed on January 31 is delayed by several weeks because of huge numbers of applications (40000). Kodak takes time to check investors’ reliability.

🔸 El Petro will exist! The pre-ICO of the national cryptocurrency El Petro will be held on February 20. Emission of the cryptocurrency will be 100 million tokens: 38.4% is planned to be sold during pre-ICO, 44% – 1 month after, 17.6% will be kept on the account of the state administration on cryptocurrencies. The starting price is $60.

🔸 Japanese financial service company is going to inspect all crypto exchanges after the hack of Coincheck. Maybe it will help to prevent other thefts.

🔸 Is LiteMonero possible? The developer of Litecoin Charlie Lee and Monero Riccardo Spagni spoke about their plans to develop development a protocol for atomic swaps between two cryptocurrencies and combining of two teams.

🔸 Positive prospects at the end. The government of the capital of Taiwan and blockchain platform IOTA agreed on creating a “smart city” in Taipei. Firstly, they will introduce the ID technology TangleID for city residents.

🔻 Bitcoin $8514 (-14.87%)
🔻 Ethereum $905.48 (-17.82%)
🔻 DASH $545 (-21.15%)
🔻 Litecoin $121.27 (-25.02%)

@fbsanalytics
​​#EconomicCalendar

Today is the NFP day! American Nonfarm Payrolls will be out at 15:30 MT time.

Note that this time traders will focus on wage growth (Average hourly Earnings) and Unemployment Rate – two other labor market indicators which will also come out at 15:30 MT time.

Scenarios:

☀ Positive for USD: wages rise by 0.3% or more (especially if NFP is above forecast and/or unemployment rate declines)

☁ Negative for USD: wages rise by 0.2% or less (especially is NFP is below forecast and/or unemployment rate doesn’t change)

Pairs for trading: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
​​#forextips

💡 5 tips on drawing Fibonacci levels

Do you use Fibonacci retracement tool in your market analysis? Here are some hints:

1. Fibo levels are always drawn from the left to the right. Candlesticks’ wicks count.
2. Pay attention to longer-term trends: when different Fibonacci levels converge, they become more important.
3. Fibonacci alone is not enough for a good trading decision: use other indicators for confirmation.
4. Avoid using Fibos over short time intervals.
5. Think of each Fibo level more as an area rather than an exact level.
#WeeklyCryptoNews

The fall of Bitcoin below $6000 this week shocked not only Bitcoin fans. Let’s look what else can surprise us!

🔸 China gets stricter and stricter. The Chinese government is going to ban the access to all internal and external platforms related to cryptocurrencies and ICO.

🔸 US national level of cryptocurrency restrictions? Heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked the Congress to consider federal supervision for digital-currency trading platforms. However, the Congress decided to not enact a ban on the national level yet. The chair of CFTC Giancarlo even said that Bitcoin had an important function in the global markets.

🔸 The Facebook ban is not so strict. The social network's ban on advertising ICOs and cryptocurrencies can be avoided by simple mistakes such as “zero” instead of “o” in the world Bitcoin. A bot will not recognize the world and will let post a publication.

🔸 Litecoin plans to release a special payment service LitePay soon. Users will be able to exchange LiteCoins for dollars and pay with them wherever they want. Moreover, they will be able to withdraw cash from an ordinary ATM.

🔸 Ripple is growing. Ripple made an arrangement with the National bank of Abu-Dhabi. Ripple technology will be integrated into a payment system of the bank.

🔸 Kodak perspectives are not so positive. The investment company Kerrisdale Capital said that Kodak does not have financial and technological resources to implement the blockchain platform KODAKOne. The Kerrisdale Capital is sure that the Kodak needs it just to avoid a default.

🔸 Hidden mining is everywhere. Firstly, malware ADB.miner that is used for hidden mining Monero attacked Androids. After that, it was found on MacOS.

🔸 A classical pump. During a day the price of the E-coin rose from $6 to $290 and then fell to $3.

🔸 At the end, some predictions for Bitcoin. The famous crypto trader and analyst Tone Vays predicts 4 more weeks of fall for Bitcoin.

🔸 Someone is over-optimistic. For example, Mr. McAfee (the founder of the software company McAfee.Inc) said that he will eat his own man meat if one bitcoin isn’t priced at $1 million by 2020.

🔻 Bitcoin $8018 (-1.92%)
🔺 DASH $586.76 (+9.41%)
🔻 Ethereum $810.01 (-1.89%)
🔺 Litecoin $144.00(+1.07%)

@fbsanalytics
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​​🇯🇵 USD/JPY: yen crashes obstacles


USD fell to 15-month low versus Japanese yen. The next important support is at the psychological level of 105.00.


🔸 No interventions yet. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said today that he doesn’t see current yen moves as being so strong or weak that would warrant intervention, adding that there was no plan now to respond to Forex moves.
🔸 Many yen bulls initially entered the trade predicting the JPY would rise as the Bank of Japan moves toward removing its record stimulus.
🔸 Uncertainty comes from the future BOJ leadership: current Governor Kuroda was reappointed, but the identities of his two deputies are still unknown.
🔸 Higher inflation figures didn’t help the USD as traders focus on American current account and budget deficits.


Trade ideas for USD/JPY:

SELL 107.40 SL 107.95 TP1 106.40 TP2 105.35 TP3 102.80
SELL 108.05 SL 108.6 TP1 107.00 TP2 106.40 TP3 105.35