💭 Trade ideas for this week from FBS analyst in Thailand Mr. Kritsada Sengriab
🔱 EUR/USD: Buy – 1.16600, 1.16300, 1.16000; S/L – 1.15500; TP1 – 1.17300, TP2 – 1.17600, TP3 – 1.17900.
🔱 USD/JPY: Sell – 112.600, 112.800, 113.000; S/L – 113.500; TP1 – 111.900, TP2 – 111.600, TP3 – 111.300.
🔱 GBP/USD: Sell – 1.32550, 1.33000, 1.33400; S/L – 1.34000; TP1 – 1.31750, TP2 – 1.31400, TP3 – 1.31000.
🔱 AUD/USD: Buy: 0.73650, 0.73350, 0.72900; S/L – 0.72000; TP1 – 0.74350, TP2 – 0.74800, TP3 –0.75200
🔱 Gold (XAU/USD): Sell – 1,251.00, 1,256.00, 1,261.00; S/L – 1,270.00; TP1 – 1,240.00, TP2 – 1,235.00.
🔱 EUR/USD: Buy – 1.16600, 1.16300, 1.16000; S/L – 1.15500; TP1 – 1.17300, TP2 – 1.17600, TP3 – 1.17900.
🔱 USD/JPY: Sell – 112.600, 112.800, 113.000; S/L – 113.500; TP1 – 111.900, TP2 – 111.600, TP3 – 111.300.
🔱 GBP/USD: Sell – 1.32550, 1.33000, 1.33400; S/L – 1.34000; TP1 – 1.31750, TP2 – 1.31400, TP3 – 1.31000.
🔱 AUD/USD: Buy: 0.73650, 0.73350, 0.72900; S/L – 0.72000; TP1 – 0.74350, TP2 – 0.74800, TP3 –0.75200
🔱 Gold (XAU/USD): Sell – 1,251.00, 1,256.00, 1,261.00; S/L – 1,270.00; TP1 – 1,240.00, TP2 – 1,235.00.
We gathered the most important economic events of this week and brightened them with the technical analysis 🌟
🎬 Watch our latest outlook on the USD, EUR, gold and more: https://fbs.com/analytics/videos/weekly-forex-outlook-july-16-20-1606
🎬 Watch our latest outlook on the USD, EUR, gold and more: https://fbs.com/analytics/videos/weekly-forex-outlook-july-16-20-1606
FBS
Weekly market outlook
What to expect from markets this week
Hello friends!
Do you want to get clues on oil prices? Have a look⛽
🔻 EIA: Brent $73 in the second half of 2018; $69 per barrel in 2019.
🔺Goldman Sachs: Brent $70-80 in the near-term; $80 by the end of the year.
🔺Morgan Stanley: Brent $85 by the end of the year.
Do you want to get clues on oil prices? Have a look⛽
🔻 EIA: Brent $73 in the second half of 2018; $69 per barrel in 2019.
🔺Goldman Sachs: Brent $70-80 in the near-term; $80 by the end of the year.
🔺Morgan Stanley: Brent $85 by the end of the year.
❤1
Hello, traders! We continue our Saturday patterns. A pennant is very similar to a flag but the shape is a bit different. Have a look:
🔔 What will this week bring the aussie?
Events:
CPI; Trimmed Mean CPI (Wednesday, 4:30 MT time)
Forecasts for AUD/USD:
🔷 Ivan Karamazov: BUY - 0.744; SL - 0.7385; TP1 - 0.7505, TP2 - 0.754, TP3 - 0.764
🔶 Kritsada Sengriab: Buy - 0.73650, 0.73300, 0.72900; S/L - 0.72000; TP1 - 0.74350, TP2 - 0.74800, TP3 - 0.75200
Technical outlook:
Up to now, the pair has been trading near the pivot point at 0.74. If the pair closes below the pivot point, the further fall is anticipated. The support lies at 0.7340. However, if the US dollar index weakens, the pair will have chances to recover. The resistance lies at 0.7465 (50-day MA).
Events:
CPI; Trimmed Mean CPI (Wednesday, 4:30 MT time)
Forecasts for AUD/USD:
🔷 Ivan Karamazov: BUY - 0.744; SL - 0.7385; TP1 - 0.7505, TP2 - 0.754, TP3 - 0.764
🔶 Kritsada Sengriab: Buy - 0.73650, 0.73300, 0.72900; S/L - 0.72000; TP1 - 0.74350, TP2 - 0.74800, TP3 - 0.75200
Technical outlook:
Up to now, the pair has been trading near the pivot point at 0.74. If the pair closes below the pivot point, the further fall is anticipated. The support lies at 0.7340. However, if the US dollar index weakens, the pair will have chances to recover. The resistance lies at 0.7465 (50-day MA).
#EconomicCalendar
🔔 Today the ECB will have a meeting at 14:45 MT time.
The market doesn’t expect any changes in the interest rate. However, the speech of Mr. Draghi is something to look at.
BNP Paribas: no changes comparing to the June meeting. No details on the rate change.
Barclays: no new information. A possibility of interesting comments on recent developments in the economic data and trade wars tensions.
UBS: the ECB is more skeptical about the economic outlook. A clarification on the date of the rate hike with more details of the reinvestment policy.
📈 Technical side:
From the beginning of the week, EUR/USD has been trying to stick above 1.1680. If the Central Bank is hawkish, the pair will go to 1.1785. The Ichimoku cloud signals the narrowing depreciation. However, if the market is not happy with the statement, the pair will fall below 1.1680.
🔔 Today the ECB will have a meeting at 14:45 MT time.
The market doesn’t expect any changes in the interest rate. However, the speech of Mr. Draghi is something to look at.
BNP Paribas: no changes comparing to the June meeting. No details on the rate change.
Barclays: no new information. A possibility of interesting comments on recent developments in the economic data and trade wars tensions.
UBS: the ECB is more skeptical about the economic outlook. A clarification on the date of the rate hike with more details of the reinvestment policy.
📈 Technical side:
From the beginning of the week, EUR/USD has been trying to stick above 1.1680. If the Central Bank is hawkish, the pair will go to 1.1785. The Ichimoku cloud signals the narrowing depreciation. However, if the market is not happy with the statement, the pair will fall below 1.1680.
Happy Friday guys🌞
According to our recent poll, most of you believe in Bitcoin at $10,000✨
What’s been happening to the cryptocurrency up to now👀
This week Bitcoin has reached the highest level since the end of May at $8,336. However, it didn’t get enough support to stick at it. Up to now, Bitcoin has been moving down to the psychological level at $7,500. 100-day MA will be additional support. As a result, there are odds of the rebound. The resistance will lie near $8,340. If there is negative news in the cryptocurrency world, the digital currency will break the support and will move to $7,000.
Where will Bitcoin go❓
According to our recent poll, most of you believe in Bitcoin at $10,000✨
What’s been happening to the cryptocurrency up to now👀
This week Bitcoin has reached the highest level since the end of May at $8,336. However, it didn’t get enough support to stick at it. Up to now, Bitcoin has been moving down to the psychological level at $7,500. 100-day MA will be additional support. As a result, there are odds of the rebound. The resistance will lie near $8,340. If there is negative news in the cryptocurrency world, the digital currency will break the support and will move to $7,000.
Where will Bitcoin go❓
Sometimes there are real diamonds on Forex charts. Find out how to recognize and trade on a "Diamond" pattern:
📣 5 things you should know today:
🔶 US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin predicts a sustained annual economic 3% growth for America for 4-5 years. Isn’t he an optimist?
🔷 To hit the deadlock in the Brexit negotiation, Britain agreed on the final word of the European Court of Justice in the arbitration of working, bill, and Irish border issues. More members of the government will likely disagree.
🔶 The market is waiting for the tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Japan. Will the Central Bank really give clues on the QE tapering? It’s a key factor for JPY traders.
🔷 ANZ Bank expects EUR/USD to rise in the middle term: “Buy at the current price and wait for the rise to 1.25 and higher”.
🔶 The Chinese yuan is weak again but Goldman Sachs says that it will help the Chinese economy in times of tariffs.
🔶 US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin predicts a sustained annual economic 3% growth for America for 4-5 years. Isn’t he an optimist?
🔷 To hit the deadlock in the Brexit negotiation, Britain agreed on the final word of the European Court of Justice in the arbitration of working, bill, and Irish border issues. More members of the government will likely disagree.
🔶 The market is waiting for the tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Japan. Will the Central Bank really give clues on the QE tapering? It’s a key factor for JPY traders.
🔷 ANZ Bank expects EUR/USD to rise in the middle term: “Buy at the current price and wait for the rise to 1.25 and higher”.
🔶 The Chinese yuan is weak again but Goldman Sachs says that it will help the Chinese economy in times of tariffs.
👌 Get your Forex education for FREE!
Register for the upcoming educational webinars:
➡ Aug 6 - Support and resistance https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7080605686171478530
➡ Aug 14 - How to open/close a trading position? https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3263074926254227714
➡ Aug 16 - How to understand the policy of central banks? https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4282366185141863427
➡ Aug 30 - MACD. Catch your trading signal https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3824187595747270657
Register for the upcoming educational webinars:
➡ Aug 6 - Support and resistance https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7080605686171478530
➡ Aug 14 - How to open/close a trading position? https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3263074926254227714
➡ Aug 16 - How to understand the policy of central banks? https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4282366185141863427
➡ Aug 30 - MACD. Catch your trading signal https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3824187595747270657
Hi everyone! Do you already know what and how you will trade today? Here are some ideas of FBS analysts.
👱 Ivan Karamazov
Gold (XAU/USD): BUY – 1235; SL – 1220; TP – 1250; TP2 – 1270; TP3 – 1289.
USD/CAD: SELL – 1.3210; SL – 1.3265; TP1 – 1.3110; TP2 – 1.291; TP3 – 1.2805.
👩 Tatyana Norkina
GBP/USD: SELL – 1.3120/40; SL – 1.3160; TP1 – 1.3060; TP2 – 1.3010.
EUR/USD: SELL – 1.1700; SL – 1.1680; TP1 – 1.1730; TP2 – 1.1780.
👨 Kritsada Sengriab
USD/JPY: BUY – 110.70, 110.40, 110.00; SL – 109.00; TP – 111.60; TP2 – 111.90; TP3 – 112.20.
GBP/USD: SELL – 1.3210, 1.3255, 1.3290; SL – 1.3350; TP1 – 1.3070; TP2 – 1.3030; TP3 – 1.2990.
👱 Ivan Karamazov
Gold (XAU/USD): BUY – 1235; SL – 1220; TP – 1250; TP2 – 1270; TP3 – 1289.
USD/CAD: SELL – 1.3210; SL – 1.3265; TP1 – 1.3110; TP2 – 1.291; TP3 – 1.2805.
👩 Tatyana Norkina
GBP/USD: SELL – 1.3120/40; SL – 1.3160; TP1 – 1.3060; TP2 – 1.3010.
EUR/USD: SELL – 1.1700; SL – 1.1680; TP1 – 1.1730; TP2 – 1.1780.
👨 Kritsada Sengriab
USD/JPY: BUY – 110.70, 110.40, 110.00; SL – 109.00; TP – 111.60; TP2 – 111.90; TP3 – 112.20.
GBP/USD: SELL – 1.3210, 1.3255, 1.3290; SL – 1.3350; TP1 – 1.3070; TP2 – 1.3030; TP3 – 1.2990.
Be ready to trade on news😜
🔸BOJ Meeting. Early in the morning, the BOJ released the monetary policy statement. The market reacted with strong volatility, as its hopes on the QE tapering didn’t come true. The JPY keeps falling further.
🔹Fed Meeting (Wed, 21:00 MT time). Hints on 2 additional rate hikes - the USD⬆. Less than 2 - the USD⬇.
🔸BOE Meeting (Thu, 14:00 MT time).The market is anticipating a rate hike.
🔹US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT time). Solid NFP, high wage growth, and smaller unemployment rate are keys to the USD’s rise.
🔸BOJ Meeting. Early in the morning, the BOJ released the monetary policy statement. The market reacted with strong volatility, as its hopes on the QE tapering didn’t come true. The JPY keeps falling further.
🔹Fed Meeting (Wed, 21:00 MT time). Hints on 2 additional rate hikes - the USD⬆. Less than 2 - the USD⬇.
🔸BOE Meeting (Thu, 14:00 MT time).The market is anticipating a rate hike.
🔹US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT time). Solid NFP, high wage growth, and smaller unemployment rate are keys to the USD’s rise.
#ForexNews
According to media reports, the Trump administration plans to propose a 25% tariff on $200 billion in Chinese imports compared to an original 10%. The United States wants to pressure China into making concessions.
☝The escalation of trade tensions between America and China is negative for CNY and AUD.
According to media reports, the Trump administration plans to propose a 25% tariff on $200 billion in Chinese imports compared to an original 10%. The United States wants to pressure China into making concessions.
☝The escalation of trade tensions between America and China is negative for CNY and AUD.
📊 Greetings, traders! Are you taking benefit of this most active week?
The USD is up for 2 reasons:
- Intensifying trade tensions between the USA and China.
- The positive message of the Federal Reserve.
🔻 EUR/USD is at the lowest edge of the triangle. Support is at 1.1600 ahead of 1.1570 and 1.1505.
🔺 USD/JPY is supported by 111.50. Above this level, it will target 112.00 and 112.50.
🔻 AUD/USD is targeting 0.7545.
🔻 NZD/USD risks falling to 0.6745.
🔔 Coming soon: Bank of England’s Meeting (14:00 MT time)
The USD is up for 2 reasons:
- Intensifying trade tensions between the USA and China.
- The positive message of the Federal Reserve.
🔻 EUR/USD is at the lowest edge of the triangle. Support is at 1.1600 ahead of 1.1570 and 1.1505.
🔺 USD/JPY is supported by 111.50. Above this level, it will target 112.00 and 112.50.
🔻 AUD/USD is targeting 0.7545.
🔻 NZD/USD risks falling to 0.6745.
🔔 Coming soon: Bank of England’s Meeting (14:00 MT time)
How to trade on the Bank of England?
➡ British central bank is expected to increase its interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% today at 14:00 MT time. Usually, a rate increase is positive for a currency, but this time it’s already in the price of the GBP, so it won’t be easy for the GBP to rise. Moreover, the BOE Governor may say cautious and pessimistic things because of the Brexit uncertainty. If so, any advance of the GBP will be very short-lived.
On H4 chart of GBP/USD, it looks like a “Head and Shoulders” pattern. A break below 1.3075 will trigger a fall to 1.3015/00.
What is needed for the GBP to turn up?
Hints on further rate increases + positive changes in bank’s economic forecasts. This scenario doesn’t seem very likely, but it would make GBP rise to 1.3150 ahead of 1.32.
What if there’s no rate increase?
GBP/USD will fall sharply, to 1.2950 and maybe even to 1.2850.
➡ British central bank is expected to increase its interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% today at 14:00 MT time. Usually, a rate increase is positive for a currency, but this time it’s already in the price of the GBP, so it won’t be easy for the GBP to rise. Moreover, the BOE Governor may say cautious and pessimistic things because of the Brexit uncertainty. If so, any advance of the GBP will be very short-lived.
On H4 chart of GBP/USD, it looks like a “Head and Shoulders” pattern. A break below 1.3075 will trigger a fall to 1.3015/00.
What is needed for the GBP to turn up?
Hints on further rate increases + positive changes in bank’s economic forecasts. This scenario doesn’t seem very likely, but it would make GBP rise to 1.3150 ahead of 1.32.
What if there’s no rate increase?
GBP/USD will fall sharply, to 1.2950 and maybe even to 1.2850.
#EconomicCalendar
It’s the first Friday of August, and the markets are enjoying the summer heat. ☀
🇺🇸 Today the US will release NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls or Non-Farm Employment Change as indicated in the economic calendar) at 15:30 MT time. Many traders are waiting for this release.
Pairs to trade: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY.
What is expected?
The market expects solid economic figures from America. According to the forecast, NFP will be +191K. A number close to 200K will be positive for the USD. Notice that traders will look not only at NFP: another indicator may be even more important – Average Hourly Earnings. The forecast for this indicator is 0.3% vs. the previous number of 0.2%. If it comes true, the USD will remain strong. If it is 0.4%, the USD will jump up. The reading of 0.2% and lower will make the USD decline.
Analysts at Nomura and Deutsche Bank are expecting a strong NFP but they don’t expect much from Average Earnings Index. The USD is near highs now, so if the market gets disappointed, it will correct down.
And what are your expectations for the USD today?
It’s the first Friday of August, and the markets are enjoying the summer heat. ☀
🇺🇸 Today the US will release NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls or Non-Farm Employment Change as indicated in the economic calendar) at 15:30 MT time. Many traders are waiting for this release.
Pairs to trade: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY.
What is expected?
The market expects solid economic figures from America. According to the forecast, NFP will be +191K. A number close to 200K will be positive for the USD. Notice that traders will look not only at NFP: another indicator may be even more important – Average Hourly Earnings. The forecast for this indicator is 0.3% vs. the previous number of 0.2%. If it comes true, the USD will remain strong. If it is 0.4%, the USD will jump up. The reading of 0.2% and lower will make the USD decline.
Analysts at Nomura and Deutsche Bank are expecting a strong NFP but they don’t expect much from Average Earnings Index. The USD is near highs now, so if the market gets disappointed, it will correct down.
And what are your expectations for the USD today?
For how long traders plan to hold Bitcoins?
The website Raconteur has recently released some interesting infographics about cryptocurrency. The figures come from the survey of 1,800 cryptocurrency investors worldwide.
Among the people who already invested in Bitcoin as of November 2017, 41% believe that it is a world-changing technology and 22% regard BTC as a long-term store of value.
56% of retail investors and traders who own cryptocurrencies intend to buy more over the next year.
The website Raconteur has recently released some interesting infographics about cryptocurrency. The figures come from the survey of 1,800 cryptocurrency investors worldwide.
Among the people who already invested in Bitcoin as of November 2017, 41% believe that it is a world-changing technology and 22% regard BTC as a long-term store of value.
56% of retail investors and traders who own cryptocurrencies intend to buy more over the next year.
‼ Mixed data from the US
🔹 NFP came out at 157K vs. the forecast of 191K
🔸 Average Hourly Earnings came at 0.3%, same as expected
🔸 Unemployment Rate declined from 4.0% to 3.9%
American economy is adding jobs, but not fast enough so there’s a modest negative reaction in the USD.
🔹 NFP came out at 157K vs. the forecast of 191K
🔸 Average Hourly Earnings came at 0.3%, same as expected
🔸 Unemployment Rate declined from 4.0% to 3.9%
American economy is adding jobs, but not fast enough so there’s a modest negative reaction in the USD.
☕ Happy Monday!
📅 Here are the important events that await traders this week:
1. RBA Rate Statement (Tue, 07:30 MT time) – no change in the rate or the central bank’s guidance are expected.
2. RBNZ Rate Statement (Thu, 00:00 MT time) – according to forecasts, the central bank won’t change the interest rate but will cut GDP forecast. NZD is at risk of further declines.
3. US PPI (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – the forecast is not very good for the USD. Will there be a positive surprise?
4. British GDP & Manufacturing Production (Fri, 11:30 MT time) – with all the Brexit concerns, the GBP needs good figures. Otherwise, it will suffer.
5. US CPI (Fri, 15:30 MT time) – forecasts are OK. It’s a chance to trade on the news at the end of the week.
Other events: China’s trade balance on Wed, Japanese GDP on Fri.
📌 There are also some other “hot” topics:
🔸USD: US-China trade tensions intensify. President Trump declares a hard line and makes new threats in Twitter, China answers US tariffs with its own.
🔸USD/CNH: China’s central bank stepped in to support its currency, so the yuan regained the ground against the US dollar.
🔸GBP: British trade minister Liam Fox said over the weekend the odds of Britain leaving the EU without agreeing on a deal equal to 60%. The poor GBP!
📅 Here are the important events that await traders this week:
1. RBA Rate Statement (Tue, 07:30 MT time) – no change in the rate or the central bank’s guidance are expected.
2. RBNZ Rate Statement (Thu, 00:00 MT time) – according to forecasts, the central bank won’t change the interest rate but will cut GDP forecast. NZD is at risk of further declines.
3. US PPI (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – the forecast is not very good for the USD. Will there be a positive surprise?
4. British GDP & Manufacturing Production (Fri, 11:30 MT time) – with all the Brexit concerns, the GBP needs good figures. Otherwise, it will suffer.
5. US CPI (Fri, 15:30 MT time) – forecasts are OK. It’s a chance to trade on the news at the end of the week.
Other events: China’s trade balance on Wed, Japanese GDP on Fri.
📌 There are also some other “hot” topics:
🔸USD: US-China trade tensions intensify. President Trump declares a hard line and makes new threats in Twitter, China answers US tariffs with its own.
🔸USD/CNH: China’s central bank stepped in to support its currency, so the yuan regained the ground against the US dollar.
🔸GBP: British trade minister Liam Fox said over the weekend the odds of Britain leaving the EU without agreeing on a deal equal to 60%. The poor GBP!
👌 Every day we hear something about Brexit. The news has a great impact on the GBP.
Do you have trouble understanding how serious the situation is?
Bloomberg created a special barometer that shows how the UK economy is responding to the Brexit process. Check it daily to see whether the clouds over Britain gather or clear away.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-barometer/
Do you have trouble understanding how serious the situation is?
Bloomberg created a special barometer that shows how the UK economy is responding to the Brexit process. Check it daily to see whether the clouds over Britain gather or clear away.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-barometer/
#Bankforecasts
↗ JP Morgan bets on the long JPY because of 2 reasons. The first one is trade tensions. The second one is changes in the BOJ monetary policy (greater volatility in 10Y JGB yields).
↘ Goldman Sachs predicts USD/CNH at 6.90-7.10 in 3-6 months. In 12 months, the yuan will have chances to recover to 6.6. Moreover, the bank bets on a trade deal between China and the US, but before that, tensions will escalate.
↗ JP Morgan bets on the long JPY because of 2 reasons. The first one is trade tensions. The second one is changes in the BOJ monetary policy (greater volatility in 10Y JGB yields).
↘ Goldman Sachs predicts USD/CNH at 6.90-7.10 in 3-6 months. In 12 months, the yuan will have chances to recover to 6.6. Moreover, the bank bets on a trade deal between China and the US, but before that, tensions will escalate.