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πŸ†• US100 bounced off the lower boundary of the downtrend channel after crossing below the lower Bollinger Band, and a minor correction can be expected. %R confirms strong oversold conditions.

πŸ‘† We are considering buying the US100 if it rises above 28,600;
🎯 Target 1: 28,800;
🎯 Target 2: 29,000.

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πŸ“‰ Recession

πŸ’΅ A recession is a broad and sustained decline in economic activity. It shows up in GDP, jobs, industrial output, consumer spending, and investment.

πŸ“ Historically, the US has experienced 12 recessions since WWII. On average, they last about 10–11 months. The longest was the 2007–2009 Great Recession (18 months), while the shortest was the COVID collapse in 2020 (2 months, but record-breaking in depth).

⚑️ Key features to watch:

🟠GDP contracts across several quarters.
🟠Unemployment rises, usually with a lag.
🟠Consumer spending, which makes up ~70% of US GDP, declines.
🟠Credit markets tighten, business investment falls.

πŸ•― For traders, a recession reshapes the entire market. Cyclical stocks stumble while defensives hold up better. Safe havens like USD, gold, and Treasuries attract flows, while oil and industrial metals usually suffer. Volatility rises across every asset class.

πŸ’‘ The nuance! Markets anticipate recessions. They often fall before the economy is officially declared in recession and recover before the data improves. That’s why monitoring early signals like the yield curve, PMI, or credit spreads is essential.

TapπŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ if this was useful β€” and save it to revisit when the next recession signal flashes.

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πŸ” πŸ” πŸ” πŸ” 

β˜„οΈ The US launched a ninth straight night of strikes on Iran after American troops were killed, escalating the conflict while targeting Tehran’s military and Hormuz capabilities.

πŸ€– TSMC said its $265B US investment is driven by strong AI demand and competition, with the company still struggling to meet customer orders.

πŸš€ SpaceX plans the next Starship test flight for July 23, with elevated volatility expected as short interest has reportedly risen to about one-third of the free float.

#MarketNews

πŸ“† CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 20.07.2026

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ CPI m/m – 15:30 GMT+3
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Median CPI y/y – 15:30 GMT+3
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Trimmed CPI y/y – 15:30 GMT+3

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πŸ…±οΈ#️⃣*οΈβƒ£β„ΉοΈπŸ”½βΊοΈ

πŸ”₯Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle after crossing the lower Bollinger band. Nevertheless, %R has already moved out of the oversold zone.

‡️A breakdown of the lower trend line below 63800 will drop BTCUSD to 62800;
‴️a rebound will bring the price back to 64800.
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πŸ˜›πŸ€ πŸ€—πŸŽπŸ˜œ

πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUDUSD is testing the downtrend line, and the lips have crossed the jaw on the Alligator.

πŸ”Ό If the trend line is broken above the nearest fractal and 0.7020, consider buying AUDUSD;
🎯 Target 1: 0.7075;
🎯 Target 2: 0.7130.

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πŸ”₯Accumulation and Distribution: 2 Phases That Define the Trend

Every trend goes through stages, and understanding these phases gives a powerful tool for working with the market.

πŸ”΄ Distribution Phase
When large players start unloading positions, the price often moves sideways. For most, this is a β€œpause,” but for an attentive trader, it’s a signal: a downward reversal may be coming.
πŸ”΄Enter on a break below β†’ start of the decline
πŸ”΄There may be a repeat distribution β†’ continuation of the downtrend after a pause

🟒 Accumulation Phase
Here, it’s the opposite: β€œsmart money” is buying the asset while the crowd thinks the market is dead.
🟒Enter on a break above β†’ start of the rise
🟒There may be a repeat accumulation β†’ continuation of the trend after a correction

πŸ“Œ The idea is simple, the market alternates between accumulation and distribution phases. If you learn to identify these areas in time, you can enter moves early, not at the last moment.

πŸ“’ Save this post so you don’t lose these secrets, and hit ❀️ if you agree!

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πŸ”€πŸ”€πŸ”€πŸ”€

πŸ›’Goldman Sachs says Brent could exceed $120/bbl in Q4 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, though it is not the bank’s base case.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ The Trump administration plans a new 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods, escalating trade tensions while exempting energy, critical minerals, autos, and steel.

✈️Boeing secured nearly 150 aircraft orders on the opening day of the Farnborough Airshow, led by major deals for the 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner.

πŸ€–US AI executives are increasingly warning that Chinese AI models are advancing rapidly, intensifying competition in the global AI race.

#MarketNews

πŸ“† CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 21.07.2026

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ADP Weekly Employment Change – 15:15 GMT+3

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πŸ‘‰πŸ₯‡πŸ‡»πŸ‡¦πŸš€πŸ‘ˆXAUUSD ALERT!

πŸ₯‡ Gold is rising rapidly after breaking through the downtrend line, and the AO indicator suggests that the bulls are beginning to dominate. The lips have crossed the jaw on the Alligator.

πŸ“ˆ We are considering buying XAUUSD if it rises above 4070;
🎯 Target: 4130.

Click❀️ if you are bullish

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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ USDCAD on the H2 chart bounced off the downtrend line after crossing the upper Bollinger Band. The Parabolic SAR confirms the start of a downtrend.

πŸ“‰ Consider selling USDCAD if it falls below 1.4060;
🎯 Target 1: 1.4040;
🎯 Target 2: 1.4020.

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πŸŒ€ Yield Curve Inversion

πŸ’² Imagine this: you lend money to the US government. Logic says – if you give it for 10 years, you should earn more than if you give it for 2 years. Right? More time = more risk.

πŸ’₯ But sometimes the opposite happens. Short-term bonds suddenly pay more than long-term ones. This flip is called a Yield Curve Inversion, and it’s one of the strangest signals in finance.

πŸ”” Why does it matter? Because history shows a chilling pattern: before every US recession since the 1950s, the curve inverted first. It doesn’t tell you when the slowdown hits… but it’s like a storm siren in the distance.

❓ What it means for markets:

🟒Banks suffer β€” their business model relies on borrowing cheap short-term and lending long-term.
🟒Stocks often stumble, as growth expectations fade.
🟒Gold, Treasuries, and other β€œsafe havens” start looking attractive.
🟒The dollar can stay firm in the short run, but the longer the inversion lasts, the louder the recession whispers.

πŸ“Ž Fact: The curve that everyone watches is 2-year vs 10-year yields. Once that line flips, traders perk up β€” some panic, some prepare.

πŸ“Œ In other words, the Yield Curve Inversion is the market’s way of saying: β€œThe future looks riskier than the present.”

Tap ❀️ if you think this strange signal is worth watching closely.

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πŸ”€πŸ”€πŸ”€πŸ”€

πŸ—£ Trump plans a 100% tariff on imported generic drugs from August 2028, rising to 200% in 2029 for manufacturers that do not move production to the US.

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§UK June CPI slowed to 2.6% YoY from 2.8% in May, below the 2.7% forecast, helped by lower fuel prices.

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Volkswagen is accelerating its China autonomous driving push, targeting Level 3 driver-assistance vehicles in H2 2027, while Level 2 models will reach Chinese roads in Q3.

πŸ›’ Equinor reported Q2 adjusted net income of $3.44B, beating the $3.36B consensus, helped by higher production and stronger European gas prices.

#MarketNews

πŸ“† CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 22.07.2026

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Trump Speaks – 22:00 GMT+3

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πŸ›’ So, on the daily chart, Brent has broken through the downtrend line and is trading above the jaw of the Alligator. The MACD histogram confirms the start of a potential uptrend.

πŸ“ˆ We are considering buying XBRUSD if it rises above 91.00;
🎯 Target 1: 97.00;
🎯 Target 2: 100.00.

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πŸ₯‡ XAUUSD has broken through the global downtrend line, and the +DI has crossed above the -DI on the ADX, which may indicate the possibility of a reversal.

↗️ We are considering buying XAUUSD only if it consolidates above 4150;
🎯 Target: 4350.

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