🛢Trading #oil: what you need to know
The key factor for the oil market is what the world’s largest producers (OPEC) do. If they keep limiting oil output, the prices will go up. If they increase production, oil will depreciate.
The problem is that the OPEC members give the market different messages. Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled that they are ready to boost output. There’s also talk that the United States asked OPEC to raise supplies by about 1 million barrels a day. However, Iraqi Oil Minister said that an increase won’t be on the table at the June 22 meeting of OPEC.
📈The views in OPEC differ so much that they may not reach a compromise on June 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday, June 14 – there may be price-moving comments. In the meantime, WTI may consolidate in the $66.50/$64.30 range, while Brent may stay in the $78.50/$74.50 range.
The key factor for the oil market is what the world’s largest producers (OPEC) do. If they keep limiting oil output, the prices will go up. If they increase production, oil will depreciate.
The problem is that the OPEC members give the market different messages. Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled that they are ready to boost output. There’s also talk that the United States asked OPEC to raise supplies by about 1 million barrels a day. However, Iraqi Oil Minister said that an increase won’t be on the table at the June 22 meeting of OPEC.
📈The views in OPEC differ so much that they may not reach a compromise on June 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday, June 14 – there may be price-moving comments. In the meantime, WTI may consolidate in the $66.50/$64.30 range, while Brent may stay in the $78.50/$74.50 range.
❗ Stay informed❗
A short summary of the G7 summit
It seemed like country-members were ready to sign a statement until Mr. Trump left the summit!
🔶 Firstly, he rejected the G7 statement.
🔷 Secondly, he said a lot about Canada and its Prime Minister. Tariffs on Canada are anticipated.
🔶 Thirdly, the European Union was involved as well. Mr. Trump reminded of the EU contribution to the NATO.
🔷 As a result, an escalation of trade wars is anticipated. New tariffs will lead to a depreciation of the EUR and CAD.
Have a look at tweets of dear Mr. Trump😩
A short summary of the G7 summit
It seemed like country-members were ready to sign a statement until Mr. Trump left the summit!
🔶 Firstly, he rejected the G7 statement.
🔷 Secondly, he said a lot about Canada and its Prime Minister. Tariffs on Canada are anticipated.
🔶 Thirdly, the European Union was involved as well. Mr. Trump reminded of the EU contribution to the NATO.
🔷 As a result, an escalation of trade wars is anticipated. New tariffs will lead to a depreciation of the EUR and CAD.
Have a look at tweets of dear Mr. Trump😩
🔔 #EconomicCalendar
US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 21:00 MT time. The central bank is expected to raise the interest rate from 1.75% to 2.0%. The rate hike is priced in the USD and won’t have a big impact on the market.
It’s more interesting how many rate hikes will the Fed forecast for this year. The chance of 4 rate hikes in 2018 is 46%. If the Fed hints at 4 hikes, the USD will rise. If, however, it sticks to 3 rate hikes, the USD will likely decline.
Given the global trade tensions, the Fed can decide to hold off with more rate hikes. Keep track of the central bank’s press conference at 21:30 MT time.
Above 1.1750, EUR/USD may target 1.1850.
USD/JPY has support at 110.15 ahead of 109.65.
US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 21:00 MT time. The central bank is expected to raise the interest rate from 1.75% to 2.0%. The rate hike is priced in the USD and won’t have a big impact on the market.
It’s more interesting how many rate hikes will the Fed forecast for this year. The chance of 4 rate hikes in 2018 is 46%. If the Fed hints at 4 hikes, the USD will rise. If, however, it sticks to 3 rate hikes, the USD will likely decline.
Given the global trade tensions, the Fed can decide to hold off with more rate hikes. Keep track of the central bank’s press conference at 21:30 MT time.
Above 1.1750, EUR/USD may target 1.1850.
USD/JPY has support at 110.15 ahead of 109.65.
The USD couldn't gain momentum after Wednesday's rate hike.
Do you want to find out reasons and get clues on movements of other currencies⁉
💥 Read our daily outlook:
https://fbs.com/analytics/news/daily-news-a-lot-of-movements-2859
Do you want to find out reasons and get clues on movements of other currencies⁉
💥 Read our daily outlook:
https://fbs.com/analytics/news/daily-news-a-lot-of-movements-2859
FBS
News on June 14
What happened in the economic world on June 14
#NEWS
The euro is unexpectedly plunging after the ECB statement.
🔺 Firstly, EUR/USD tested the resistance at 1.1850 as the Central Bank announced an end of the QE from October to December this year.
🔻 However, a weak forecast for future rate hikes pulled the pair below 1.1750. The ECB isn’t going to raise the interest rate until summer 2019.
On H4, 100-hour MA (1.1715) is a support for EUR/USD. If the pair breaks this level, the further fall to 1.1670 is anticipated. Otherwise, the pair has chances to return to 1.1750.
The euro is unexpectedly plunging after the ECB statement.
🔺 Firstly, EUR/USD tested the resistance at 1.1850 as the Central Bank announced an end of the QE from October to December this year.
🔻 However, a weak forecast for future rate hikes pulled the pair below 1.1750. The ECB isn’t going to raise the interest rate until summer 2019.
On H4, 100-hour MA (1.1715) is a support for EUR/USD. If the pair breaks this level, the further fall to 1.1670 is anticipated. Otherwise, the pair has chances to return to 1.1750.
Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple: “Only bitcoin is pure digital gold… and I totally buy into that."
FBS Analytics via @vote
Do you agree with Mr. Wozniak?🔝
anonymous poll
Yes, I believe in Bitcoin. Sure it will be at the top soon💥 – 56
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 55%
Cryptocurrencies are trash. Bitcoin isn’t an exception😏 – 28
👍👍👍👍 27%
Other cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin soon. Its days are numbered😈 – 18
👍👍 18%
👥 102 people voted so far.
anonymous poll
Yes, I believe in Bitcoin. Sure it will be at the top soon💥 – 56
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 55%
Cryptocurrencies are trash. Bitcoin isn’t an exception😏 – 28
👍👍👍👍 27%
Other cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin soon. Its days are numbered😈 – 18
👍👍 18%
👥 102 people voted so far.
🔮 What do FBS analysts say about the #EUR?
🔸 Ivan Karamazov (EN): SELL at 1.1625 with SL 1.1680 and TP at 1.15250, 1.1400 and 1.1295.
🔹 Reza Aswin (ID): The target for the EUR can be at 1.1500. Corrections are possible to 1.1600 and 1.1650.
🔸 Sergey Logachev (EN): There's a 'V-Bottom', so we're likely going to have an upward correction. However, if a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.1623 - 1.1652 happens little later on, there'll be a green light for another decline.
🔸 Ivan Karamazov (EN): SELL at 1.1625 with SL 1.1680 and TP at 1.15250, 1.1400 and 1.1295.
🔹 Reza Aswin (ID): The target for the EUR can be at 1.1500. Corrections are possible to 1.1600 and 1.1650.
🔸 Sergey Logachev (EN): There's a 'V-Bottom', so we're likely going to have an upward correction. However, if a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.1623 - 1.1652 happens little later on, there'll be a green light for another decline.
It's time to make your knowledge grow🌱
Here are some interesting correlations of the financial market:
Here are some interesting correlations of the financial market:
#DAILYNEWS
🔹 The US dollar index is rising. It is moving to the psychological level of $95 again. Today traders will look at building permits and housing starts data (15:30 MT time).
🔸 The US and South Korea agreed to suspend military drills as a part of an agreement between the US and North Korea.
🔹 Trade wars tensions are hotter and hotter. Mr. Trump asked a US trade representative to identify $200 billion in Chinese goods for additional tariffs.
🔸 Trade wars tensions and RBA comments are weighing on the AUD. The AUD/USD pair is moving down. Forecast of the authoritative financial institutes are not encouraging for the aussie. It seems like its chances for rising are weak.
🔹 Trade wars escalate, so the Japanese yen rises. However, it needs more support.
A former BOJ official thinks that the BOJ should stop stimulating prices through large-scale bond buying and instead introduce a digital currency, enabling it to accept a new price goal of 0% inflation.
🔹 The US dollar index is rising. It is moving to the psychological level of $95 again. Today traders will look at building permits and housing starts data (15:30 MT time).
🔸 The US and South Korea agreed to suspend military drills as a part of an agreement between the US and North Korea.
🔹 Trade wars tensions are hotter and hotter. Mr. Trump asked a US trade representative to identify $200 billion in Chinese goods for additional tariffs.
🔸 Trade wars tensions and RBA comments are weighing on the AUD. The AUD/USD pair is moving down. Forecast of the authoritative financial institutes are not encouraging for the aussie. It seems like its chances for rising are weak.
🔹 Trade wars escalate, so the Japanese yen rises. However, it needs more support.
A former BOJ official thinks that the BOJ should stop stimulating prices through large-scale bond buying and instead introduce a digital currency, enabling it to accept a new price goal of 0% inflation.
#EconomicCalendar
You don't know what to trade?! Trade oil!
🔜 Friday will be an important day for the oil market. OPEC and its allies will negotiate on the further oil supply.
Have you already heard that Iran is ready for the modest rise in output? And it's only a few days after it was absolutely against any increase in the supply. As a result, the oil market fell.
An increase in the oil output always leads to oil’s decline. So, if OPEC and allies agree to increase production, oil will fall further.
🔸 Up to now, Brent has been trading below the pivot point at 74.40. Negative news from the meeting will pull the oil benchmark to the support at $71.65. Otherwise, it will be able to recover.
🔹 WTI has tested the pivot point at $65.25, however, stays above it. The negative news will lead to the fall below the pivot point. Otherwise, WTI will be able to stay above $65.25.
You don't know what to trade?! Trade oil!
🔜 Friday will be an important day for the oil market. OPEC and its allies will negotiate on the further oil supply.
Have you already heard that Iran is ready for the modest rise in output? And it's only a few days after it was absolutely against any increase in the supply. As a result, the oil market fell.
An increase in the oil output always leads to oil’s decline. So, if OPEC and allies agree to increase production, oil will fall further.
🔸 Up to now, Brent has been trading below the pivot point at 74.40. Negative news from the meeting will pull the oil benchmark to the support at $71.65. Otherwise, it will be able to recover.
🔹 WTI has tested the pivot point at $65.25, however, stays above it. The negative news will lead to the fall below the pivot point. Otherwise, WTI will be able to stay above $65.25.
🏦 What do the banks say?
Market analysis from the major commercial banks is always respected a lot. Here are the banks’ most recent comments & recommendations. Enjoy!
Commerzbank: Recoveries of EUR/USD will meet resistance at the 20-day MA at 1.1680. As long as the euro trades below 1.1855, the bias will remain negative. Support at 1.1510 (May low) and 1.1407 (200-week MA).
Barclays: EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 by the end of the year as the US economy will outperform.
Nomura: The Bank of England now aims for a rate hike in August. This is not priced in the GBP price yet and is positive for the currency.
Danske Bank: EUR/GBP will trade in the 0.8850-8650 range and then go lower, to 0.88 in 1 month and 0.8650 in 3 months. The specialists target EUR/GBP at 0.84 in 6 months and at 0.83 in a year.
Market analysis from the major commercial banks is always respected a lot. Here are the banks’ most recent comments & recommendations. Enjoy!
Commerzbank: Recoveries of EUR/USD will meet resistance at the 20-day MA at 1.1680. As long as the euro trades below 1.1855, the bias will remain negative. Support at 1.1510 (May low) and 1.1407 (200-week MA).
Barclays: EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 by the end of the year as the US economy will outperform.
Nomura: The Bank of England now aims for a rate hike in August. This is not priced in the GBP price yet and is positive for the currency.
Danske Bank: EUR/GBP will trade in the 0.8850-8650 range and then go lower, to 0.88 in 1 month and 0.8650 in 3 months. The specialists target EUR/GBP at 0.84 in 6 months and at 0.83 in a year.
🐹 Someone bets on the World Cup, but Russian hamster bets on Bitcoin!
Russian internet media Coinspot launched a new project called “Hamster Insider”. A small hamster forecasts the direction of Bitcoin market for the near future. It runs in a labyrinth and at the end of the way chooses one of the doors. The green one means that Bitcoin will rise, the red one warns about the bearish movement.
Have a look at the tiny cute hamster and its first forecast. It’s really interesting whether he is new Nostradamus or not.
https://youtu.be/fmOFxbOw--Q
Russian internet media Coinspot launched a new project called “Hamster Insider”. A small hamster forecasts the direction of Bitcoin market for the near future. It runs in a labyrinth and at the end of the way chooses one of the doors. The green one means that Bitcoin will rise, the red one warns about the bearish movement.
Have a look at the tiny cute hamster and its first forecast. It’s really interesting whether he is new Nostradamus or not.
https://youtu.be/fmOFxbOw--Q
YouTube
Hamster Insider | Выпуск 1 | 18.06.18 - 28.06.18
Представляем вам пилотный выпуск шоу Хомяка Инсайдера, где он предскажет направление рынка на ближайшие 10 дней. Инсайдер бежит по криптолабиринту и в самом конце пути выбирает одну из дверей зелёного или красного цвета, олицетворяющие соответственно рост…
🍀 Traders are lucky when they find a 'Head & Shoulders' pattern on the chart because it offers a simple & elegant trading solution. Have a look and memorize:
🎁 Trade ideas for this week from FBS analyst in Thailand Mr. Kritsada Sengriab
EUR/USD: Buy – 1.1590, 1.1550; S/L – 1.1500; TP1 – 1.1680; TP2 – 1.1720.
USD/JPY: Sell – 110.50, 111.20; S/L – 112.00; TP1 – 109.60, TP2 – 108.80.
AUD/USD: Buy – 0.7400, 0.7330; S/L – 0.7300; TP1 – 0.7500; TP2 – 0.7540.
Gold (XAU/USD): Buy – 1,264.00, 1,258.00, 1,250.00; S/L – 1240.00; TP1 – 1,275.00, TP2 – 1,280.00; TP – 1,284.00.
EUR/USD: Buy – 1.1590, 1.1550; S/L – 1.1500; TP1 – 1.1680; TP2 – 1.1720.
USD/JPY: Sell – 110.50, 111.20; S/L – 112.00; TP1 – 109.60, TP2 – 108.80.
AUD/USD: Buy – 0.7400, 0.7330; S/L – 0.7300; TP1 – 0.7500; TP2 – 0.7540.
Gold (XAU/USD): Buy – 1,264.00, 1,258.00, 1,250.00; S/L – 1240.00; TP1 – 1,275.00, TP2 – 1,280.00; TP – 1,284.00.
It's time to plan your weekly trading❗
🎬 Our latest outlook on the USD, EUR, CAD and more:
https://www.facebook.com/FBSanalytics/videos/1371508542983538/
Don't forget to check other posts on our facebook page👌
🎬 Our latest outlook on the USD, EUR, CAD and more:
https://www.facebook.com/FBSanalytics/videos/1371508542983538/
Don't forget to check other posts on our facebook page👌
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FBS Analytics
Have you missed changes that happened to the currency market last week? Do you want to get clues on future movements of the major currency pairs? Watch our Forex outlook on the past week’s trading...
💥 JP Morgan determines 7 key risks for the second half of 2018
🔶 Trade conflicts become an economically-significant trade war.
🔷 US politics becomes even more complicated (Mueller investigation, mid-term elections).
🔶 US core PCE inflation overshoots 2%, triggering faster Fed tightening.
🔷 OPEC-Russia relaxation of oil accord becomes disorderly.
🔶 Italy over eases fiscal policy and courts a funding crisis.
🔷 US's strike-first-negotiate-later approach to diplomacy brings military entanglement in South China Sea, Korea, Iran or Syria.
🔶 Liquidity risk turns a minor macro event into a major financial one.
It seems like the Japanese yen has chances to be strong in the second half of 2018. While the position of the USD is unclear (on the one side, wars, on the other side, rate hikes), the yen has more possibilities to grow. The unstable environment may make traders invest in “safe-havens”👌
🔶 Trade conflicts become an economically-significant trade war.
🔷 US politics becomes even more complicated (Mueller investigation, mid-term elections).
🔶 US core PCE inflation overshoots 2%, triggering faster Fed tightening.
🔷 OPEC-Russia relaxation of oil accord becomes disorderly.
🔶 Italy over eases fiscal policy and courts a funding crisis.
🔷 US's strike-first-negotiate-later approach to diplomacy brings military entanglement in South China Sea, Korea, Iran or Syria.
🔶 Liquidity risk turns a minor macro event into a major financial one.
It seems like the Japanese yen has chances to be strong in the second half of 2018. While the position of the USD is unclear (on the one side, wars, on the other side, rate hikes), the yen has more possibilities to grow. The unstable environment may make traders invest in “safe-havens”👌
Do you know that trading such unusual pairs as USD/TRY is a great way to boost your profit?
🔱 A small history about the Turkish lira.
A strong depreciation of the currency has been continuing since July 2016 after the coup attempt. This year the Turkish lira has depreciated by 20% against the USD and in May the currency fell to the record low⬇
However, after the presidential re-election of Mr. Erdogan, the Turkish currency managed to recover⬆
❓ What can we expect in the future? Will the currency be able to recover or the fall will continue?
☝ Have a look at our article and get clues on the future movement of the pair: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/re-election-of-mr-erdogan-will-the-lira-strengthen-9983
🔱 A small history about the Turkish lira.
A strong depreciation of the currency has been continuing since July 2016 after the coup attempt. This year the Turkish lira has depreciated by 20% against the USD and in May the currency fell to the record low⬇
However, after the presidential re-election of Mr. Erdogan, the Turkish currency managed to recover⬆
❓ What can we expect in the future? Will the currency be able to recover or the fall will continue?
☝ Have a look at our article and get clues on the future movement of the pair: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/re-election-of-mr-erdogan-will-the-lira-strengthen-9983
FBS
Will the Turkish lira recover?
The fall of the Turkish lira has been continuing for a long time.
🔱 On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released the monetary policy statement. Analytics considered it as bearish, as a result, the New Zealand dollar continued depreciating.
NZD/USD has tested the support at 0.6765. No important economic data for the New Zealand dollar are anticipated on Friday. It creates additional risks for the further fall of the pair. The support lies at 0.67⬇
NZD/USD has tested the support at 0.6765. No important economic data for the New Zealand dollar are anticipated on Friday. It creates additional risks for the further fall of the pair. The support lies at 0.67⬇
FBS Analytics via @vote
💼 Do you pay attention to central bank meetings?
anonymous poll
Of course! There are clues on the future monetary policy👌 – 54
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 52%
What meetings? I have never heard🙀 – 33
👍👍👍👍 32%
No, it is a waste of time, heads of central banks never say anything accurately😒 – 17
👍👍 16%
👥 104 people voted so far.
anonymous poll
Of course! There are clues on the future monetary policy👌 – 54
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 52%
What meetings? I have never heard🙀 – 33
👍👍👍👍 32%
No, it is a waste of time, heads of central banks never say anything accurately😒 – 17
👍👍 16%
👥 104 people voted so far.
📈 Happy Friday! Catch trade ideas from FBS:
👦 Ivan Karamazov
EUR/USD: BUY – 1.1670; SL – 1.1615; TP –1.1720; TP2 – 1.1780; TP2 – 1.1815.
EUR/GBP: BUY – 0.8835; SL – 0.8780; TP1 – 0.8930; TP2 – 0.9070; TP3 – 0.9170.
👩 Tatyana Norkina
USD/JPY: BUY – 110.30; SL – 110.10; TP1 – 111.10; TP2 – 111.50.
AUD/USD: SELL – 0.7390; SL – 0.7410; TP1 – 0.7330; TP2 – 0.7300.
👱 Dmitry Chernovolov
AUD/JPY: BUY target is at 82.60.
👦 Ivan Karamazov
EUR/USD: BUY – 1.1670; SL – 1.1615; TP –1.1720; TP2 – 1.1780; TP2 – 1.1815.
EUR/GBP: BUY – 0.8835; SL – 0.8780; TP1 – 0.8930; TP2 – 0.9070; TP3 – 0.9170.
👩 Tatyana Norkina
USD/JPY: BUY – 110.30; SL – 110.10; TP1 – 111.10; TP2 – 111.50.
AUD/USD: SELL – 0.7390; SL – 0.7410; TP1 – 0.7330; TP2 – 0.7300.
👱 Dmitry Chernovolov
AUD/JPY: BUY target is at 82.60.