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Michael Burry is a well—known investor who became one of the heroes of Michael Lewis's book "The Big Short " (and the film based on it). However, he is not always right.

Burry was among the critics of the Federal Reserve System, accusing it of insufficient efforts to combat inflation. According to him, the Fed is "engaged in recharging the monetary bazooka." The central bank is taking steps that will allow it to save the market, and such a need is only a matter of time.

Whether the economy will be able to maintain this momentum in the face of multiple increases in the key rate is a big question. Investors believe that in May, the Open Market Operations Committee will raise the rate by half a point, but critics argue that this will not stop the price increase.

The "black swans" in the form of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the tightening of quarantine by the Chinese authorities are fueling inflation, once again emphasizing that the Fed should have acted earlier and nipped inflation in the bud.
In the spotlight.

The news of Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter is certainly in the spotlight. Investors are evaluating new Twitter prospects and are keeping an eye on the announcements.

Dogecoin's 30% rise today has a direct link to the Twitter deal. The fact is that Musk said that the introduction and use of crypto assets in the activities of Twitter was the right idea, but the implementation was wrong.

Elon spent $44 billion to buy Twitter, and it's safe to assume that such investments are not made just like that. The previous leadership of Twitter and the founder Jack Dorsey himself, for a long time, could not achieve full-fledged monetization of the platform.

Dogecoin is the most obvious contender for integration with Twitter. But you should also keep a close eye on the tokens and services that will be mentioned in the same text with Twitter. Potential contenders to interact with Musk's Twitter should definitely look forward to a new wave of growth.
Bitcoin Metrics: The spring compresses

Protracted consolidation, as a rule, leads to a sharp discharge in the financial markets.  For four months, Bitcoin has been “circling” around $40,000, and the denouement may occur as early as next week.

The volume of Bitcoin perpetual futures trading equaled that of the spot market last year, but in the last eight months, a significant drop in derivatives trading volumes has been recorded: from an average of $70-80 billion to the current $31 billion per day.

The 21st monitored exchange’s total Bitcoin holdings are at their lowest level since September 2018. The efforts of the crypto enthusiasts alone are not enough to increase the price.

On May 3rd- 4th, a meeting of the Federal Reserve System will take place, at which the key rate can be raised immediately by 0.75%. This would boost the long-term value of the dollar, increase the risk of a US recession, and could trigger a sell-off in risky assets like Bitcoin.

According to the information of investing.com"
Traders have lost $430 million since the collapse of bitcoin.

During the day, traders of cryptocurrency lost $430 million as a result of the forced closing of margin positions. More than 112,000 users of crypto exchanges suffered losses, and the largest single liquidation occurred in the Bitcoin's pair and it was equal to $3.7 million, according to Coinglass.

The pairs with the first cryptocurrency carried the biggest losses, accounted $201 million. Ethereum is in second place with liquidations of $69 million. 86% of forced closed positions are long.  This means that they were opened in anticipation of the growth of the market.

On the evening of May 5, the bitcoin rate fell to a minimum since February 24 at $ 36.3 thousand. The cryptocurrency has already fallen in price by 8%. At the same time, the price of Ethereum fell by 7% to $2.7 thousand.
The collapse of Terra plunged the Bitcoin index into “extreme fear”

The crypto-currency sector again went into the red on Monday after a fateful week for this industry.

According to QCP Capital, the collapse of Terra (LUNA) marks “the biggest wealth destruction event in the brief history of the crypto market.”

The Terra USD stablecoin has lost 1:1 parity against the US dollar and is trading at 0.13, down 23%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is returning to the $30,000 mark, although last week it was at its lowest level since December 2020, losing 15% of its value. Until May, it lost more than 21%.

According to CoinGecko, more than $400 billion has been erased from the crypto market in the last 7 days. According to MarketWatch, all sectors of the crypto space suffered double-digit losses over this period, with cryptocurrencies associated with Web3, or the so-called next generation of the Internet, showing the biggest losses -  by an average of 41%.
What's going on with bitcoin? Is the situation still critical?

The crypto market is under pressure from macroeconomic factors.  In particular, high growth rates of consumer prices in the world and in the USA remain. The situation was also affected by the collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin UST, which many analysts compare with the fall of Mt Gox.

Bitcoin is trading in the red for the eighth week in a row.  Total losses were 39% and 44.59% to a low of $26.7K. The correlation of the first cryptocurrency with the S&P500 index is 0.78 and 0.75 for 30 and 90 days, respectively.

It is unlikely that bitcoin will be able to overcome the negative factors and enter the growth stage in the coming months, not just weeks.
In June, the Fed's rate is expected to rise again, which means that investors, against the backdrop of geopolitical instability and high inflation, will further increase investments in such protective assets as US Treasury securities.
The volume of coins blocked in Ethereum 2.0 exceeded 10% of the issue.

The amount of $ 25.9 billion from 73 thousand addresses are deposited in anticipation of the transition to the new protocol.

The number of Ethereum coins locked in ETH 2.0 staking in anticipation of the network transition to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm exceeded 10% of the supply on May 30, and amounted to 12.5 million ETH or about $25.9 billion. Deposits were placed with more than 73 thousand addresses.

The transition of the ETH network to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm will take place in August of this year.

On May 25, a sudden reorganization of 7 blocks took place on the Ethereum test blockchain. This blockchain is testing the transition to a new protocol. The error could be caused by the incompatibility of the new and old software of different network nodes.

On May 30, the ETH rate showed a daily increase of 2.7% and the coin is traded for about $1.8 thousand. The total capitalization was $227 billion.
It’s getting closer to widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Digital assets can be used to replenish the local budget, despite the fall of the crypto market by more than 50% over the past six months.

The mayor of the Australian city of the Gold Coast, Tom Tate, proposed accepting cryptocurrencies as payment for municipal taxes. The head of the city council instructed to study the possibility of receipt of digital assets in the budget.

Taxes can be partially paid with cryptocurrencies in the coming years, suggested Tom Tate. In his opinion, the use of digital assets will send an innovative “signal” to young taxpayers.

The City Council could accept 95% of the bill in Australian dollars and the remaining 5% in crypto, said Blockchain Australia Chairman Adam Poulton.

Taxes can already be paid with bitcoin in El Salvador and in the Central African Republic, where the cryptocurrency is recognized as legal currency.
Bitcoin has collapsed, the cryptocurrency market is confused

The cryptocurrency market began on the morning of June 13, 2022, when the value of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $23,000.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency on this historic day, when the BTC/USD parity fell to its lowest level in over ten months, has been affected by many events that caused this decline both inside and outside the cryptocurrency industry.

For example, fintech protocol Celsius was on the verge of collapse after its operations were suspended, turning billions of dollars of collateral into a new risk for crypto markets. Similar to what happened in May 2022, Bitcoin and altcoins continued to lose value with this event as uncertainty reigned in the sector.

Meanwhile, there was a sell-off in Asian markets and Wall Street futures were poised to resume the downtrend that began in June 2022.

Similarly, ahead of the June 15, 2022 U.S. central bank announcement, concerns about inflation paved the way for the dire fate of BTC.
NFT sales are in serious decline

While the crypto market is going through a difficult period of recession, a similar situation is happening with non-fungible tokens.  NFT sales fell 74.44% over the past month.

Over the past 30 days, NFT sales have decreased by 74.44% at once, and, judging by the latest data, the drop for the week is 17.33%, according to news.bitcoin.

The drop in sales of non-fungible tokens and interest in them is parallel to the bearish crypto market.  If last month analysts recorded sales of non-fungible tokens for $4.18 billion, then after 30 days this sales figure dropped to $1.07 billion.

The NFT collection with the highest minimum value of 90 Ethereum was the BAYC Bored Monkey collection.  A month ago, this figure was 95.5 Ethereum.  Interestingly, last month 95.5 ETH was about $204,000, and now 90 ETH is about $97,000.
A new threat to the crypto market. Is it all about miner loans?

Cryptocurrency mining companies are forced to sell bitcoins to pay off loans taken on the security of equipment.

Large mining companies are beginning to face difficulties in repaying loans taken on the security of equipment, totaling up to $ 4 billion, according to Bloomberg.  According to the publication, this creates a potential risk for large crypto lenders.

Given volatility of the crypto market, traditional loans for the modernization of the equipment fleet are difficult to obtain and have high interest rates. To fill the void, lenders such as Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, BlockFi Inc., Celsius Network Ltd., Foundry Networks LLC, and Babel Finance have begun accepting mining equipment as collateral in addition to payments.

Now the provision of such loans has proved insufficient due to the fact that the equipment has become cheaper. Equipment-backed loans are up to $4 billion.
The Clumsy Market Mechanism

We all work in the markets, and very often it seems that we are quite understanding what it is. However, someone calls a certain product a market, someone just a price, and someone generally thinks that the market is just a generalized concept of everything.

People form markets. The mechanism is quite simple: there is a person who wants to sell a "bright future", on the other hand there is a person who wants to buy this "bright future".

Times and governments are changing, and now, the "bright future" is no longer so attractive, and now everyone wants to sell it. Its price is falling. And brokers and exchanges just continue to collect money from everyone for their guarantees.

If you are not a manufacturer of any product and do not hedge or fix the price of your product, then trade and invest in whatever you want, provided that asset prices are in motion and have sufficient volatility!
High-frequency trading and algorithms

Intelligent trading algorithms with their ability to react swiftly to changes in the market have introduced a new level of efficiency in trading.

Unlike humans, trading algorithms aren’t at all emotional and can only operate on the data they are fed. They are fine-tuned to detect certain indicators such as a sharp price change to automatically open or close trading positions. High-frequency trading is the automated version of the scalping trading strategy.

Knowledge of the efficiency of the algorithms, as well as the ability to monitor their behavior, can give a trader better stability in making trading decisions and protection from unnecessary randomness.

Notably, trading algorithms are created by humans and are thus not flawless. As such, there is no need to fear them or fixate on their behavior in order to copy them. But they shouldn’t be ignored either.
Safety Cushion

Every investor, and every person in general, needs to have some funds in reserve, referred to as a “safety cushion” or simply a cushion.  The fact is that economics and finance run in cycles, where periods of prosperity are often replaced by periods of decline. So with a financial margin of safety, an investor can feel safe and maintain his ability to think and act calmly. Financial reserves are needed precisely so that difficult times do not influence a person and push him to make risky decisions. It can in fact be said that stability both in investing and in life is dependent on how secure a person feels at times when markets are shaking. The "cushion" facilitates a smoother course of affairs, as it allows a person to remain relatively calm at any time. It is thus an instrument that should not be neglected in any case.
Analysis of the wave structure of the BTC chart

The waves on the BTC chart satisfy the basic laws of The Elliott Wave theory. Thus the theory can be used to analyze it.

Wave 1 ends around 70000. Sub-wave 3 is quite high, but waves 1 and 5 are practically at the same level. Corrective wave 2 is stretched in time while 4 is more of a sharp correction.
More deductions can be made from the chart.
 
Political and macroeconomic events also correspond to the chart. BTC’s recovery is expected to be slow, but capital is later expected to begin flowing back. If this is the case, we should get wave 1 in the form of a "wedge" followed by a corrective wave 2. Trading decisions are to be made preferably after that.

An alternative scenario suggests a further decline in BTC to 8000-10000 and the wave 1 wedge should not be expected.

Not to be considered as trading advice.
Cryptocurrencies are widely thought of as ideal for money laundering. But is that actually the case?

According to the U.S. CBP, there are 3 basic stages in a money laundering scheme– placement, layering, and integration. Do cryptocurrencies make these processes any easier?

Placement– ‘dirty’ money is placed into the financial systems (e.g. bank deposits and transfers). Even if criminals opt for crypto, they still have to deposit cash into a bank account first.

Layering–  spreading the money wide via complex transactions to reduce chances of tracing its illegal origins. Crypto faces at least 2 issues here. 1) Crypto transactions involving huge amounts of money arouse suspicion and 2) cryptocurrencies still have to be changed into traditional financial assets to be useful.

Integration– bringing back assets into legal circulation. This requires that the money be credited to an account at a highly reputable bank.

Banks are thus key at every stage and cryptocurrencies offer no advantage over them.
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When it comes to dealing with the digital economy, governments have at least 3 options. Embrace cryptocurrencies, compete against them with CBDCs, or ban them. Is a complete ban on cryptocurrencies even possible? Consider these stats.

Over 300 million crypto users worldwide and the number is constantly growing.

Over 36,000 Bitcoin ATMs worldwide, showing high investor confidence as the installation of ATMs is an expensive undertaking.

Over 100 countries worldwide including major economies are working on positive crypto regulations– an acknowledgment that crypto has become an integral part of the lives of citizens

Almost 21,000 cryptocurrencies with a combined market cap of almost $1 trillion.

These and many other statistics show that a complete ban on cryptocurrencies is objectively impossible.
Looking at Ethereum’s daily chart, we can clearly see the classic “head and shoulders” chart pattern.

A fundamental part of this chart is the “neckline” connecting reaction lows. In this pattern, the price tends to move a distance greater or equal to the height of the “shoulder” from the neckline. This can be observed on this chart.

We are also able to determine the range within which strong support and resistance levels are. Looking carefully at the midway line and the prices in the $2000 range, there seems to be some consensus on the price of ether but the trend is still downward.

In addition, the weak reaction to the Merge, also makes the purchase of ETH in the short and medium term unsafe. Still, ETH dominates among altcoins and is a popular long-term investment.

This post does not constitute trading/investment advice.