#btc dont short 🫶

📅 Around December 27 ± , we might see a slight decline.
- If there isn’t a strong upward move before this, don’t expect significant drops.

📆 Key dates ahead:
- January 4
- January 15-20

⚠️ These periods require caution.

✨ Overall, the outlook remains positive. I’ll keep you updated as new data becomes available.

📌 So, is the BTC correction over?

• As expected, we’ve seen a decent rebound of nearly 8% 📈.

❗️ It’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, as the price hit the upper boundary of the range and a combination of all major moving averages intraday.
Such levels are rarely broken immediately, only on strong news (the recent FED-related updates weren’t strong enough).
BTC needs consolidation within an even narrower range before we see a decisive breakout.

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### 📈 Current situation:

Below is a BTC chart from the start of the bull market (late October 2023, following ETF news).
I’ve analyzed the realized losses of the short-term holder cohort (STH) using two approaches:
- Daily timeframe.
- Weekly smoothing.

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#### 1️⃣ Daily chart:
- There was a hit on the "STH maximum pain level" – the peak losses after which the market either bounced or resumed global growth.
- The hit was double, with a strong buffer but no divergences.
- Historically, a true reversal often occurs with a divergence (the price drops slightly lower, while the indicator forms a new higher low).
- Currently, there’s no divergence, which is a bit concerning, but point 2️⃣ provides additional clarity.

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#### 2️⃣ Daily chart with weekly smoothing:
- We removed noise to observe the average daily loss over a week.
- More pronounced losses are evident (only higher during early August).
- These losses have surpassed nearly all major corrections during the selected period.
- This looks sufficient, but remember, the losses are occurring in the $90,000–$110,000 price range.
- 📊 Naturally, these losses are higher than those during earlier growth phases in a different price range. Still, the density of liquidations is very high.

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### 🔸 Conclusion:
- I still believe we are witnessing the formation of a reversal, and most of the correction is already behind us.
- ⚠️ I cannot rule out a drop below $90,000 as a final shakeout with divergence forming as described in 1️⃣, despite many indicators suggesting the correction is over.
- Consolidation within the current range will likely suffice to confirm the reversal.

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### 📊 Probabilities:
- 📈 ~70% – The main correction is complete, and the market is ready for growth.
- 📉 ~30% – A drop below $90,000 may occur as a final shakeout before recovery.

🐻 CME bears are taking the weekend off!

✨ Expect some green bars to light up late Sunday or early Monday.
📈 Stay sharp — if I catch any golden entry points, I’ll share them with you soon. 🚀

Let’s keep winning! 💼💡

🎄✨ Wishing you happy upcoming holidays and a fantastic weekend! 🎉☃️
Stay positive, stay inspired, and let’s make the most of every moment. 🕊💫

#OM closed 3.682✋