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#btc AVG 114k
sold 50% 115500 next near 120k
sold 50% 115500 next near 120k
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Forwarded from Deviles Secret Book | chat
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Forwarded from Deviles Secret Book | chat
#eth stop to enter โ๏ธ
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Starting from October 14, there should ideally be a relief reversal for altcoins. In theory, alts might drop a bit more, and Bitcoin dominance could reach around 60.5%. But since Iโll be offline over the weekend,
Iโm making my spot purchases now. Iโm fully invested โ no stablecoins left. Hopefully, my forecast is right ๐ Planning to exit around November 10.
#W 0.11287 - 64,4usdt
Iโm making my spot purchases now. Iโm fully invested โ no stablecoins left. Hopefully, my forecast is right ๐ Planning to exit around November 10.
#W 0.11287 - 64,4usdt
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Forwarded from Spot Challenge - Deviles Secret Book
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Forwarded from Spot Challenge - Deviles Secret Book
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Forwarded from Deviles Secret Book | chat
Iโll begin with introductory material that will be very useful for you to go through
Grab your glasses โ itโs a long read, but your brain will thank you later.๐๐ซถ
Grab your glasses โ itโs a long read, but your brain will thank you later.๐๐ซถ
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(ะก)
#theories ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฎโก๏ธ๐ช Think the bear market has begun? Bored, alts arenโt growing, and it feels like you shouldโve bought gold instead of crypto? Donโt jump to conclusions โ goldโs rally is a precursor:
๐งโโ๏ธ We ran research for you to show whatโs really happening in the market:
Keep your eyes on the hands โ or rather, on the candles.
๐ง First gold rally:
โข June 26 โ November 1, 2024.
โข 128 days, +21.7% growth.
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ What was BTC doing?
โข Right after gold started rising, it fell 28% and chopped in a wide range.
โข When gold stopped rising (Nov 1), Bitcoin dipped a bit more โ ๐ฅณ But starting Nov 5 it moved up and in 45 days gained over 61%.
๐ณ Do you know when BTCโs rise ended? December 17, 2024. And what happened two days later? Exactly โ gold started moving up again.
๐ง Second gold rally:
โข December 19, 2024 โ April 22, 2025, but April 22 printed a red candle.
โข 124 days, +35.7% growth.
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ What was BTC doing during this time? โ Falling, ranging, bored โ just like now.
โข When gold set a new ATH and showed a red candle on April 22 โ ๐ฅณ BTC started rising (from April 21โ22) and added +46.4%.
โข And gold, like Bitcoin earlier, chopped sideways.
๐ณ When did BTC go down again? August 14. And then?..
๐ง ..Third gold rally:
โข Five days after BTCโs drop, gold took off again.
โข In 58 days it grew by 27.4% โ faster than before.
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ What is BTC doing now? โ Falling, ranging, and groaning.
What are the takeawaysโ
๐ง Itโs obvious these coincidences arenโt random; weโre talking about liquidity tides and ebbs across financial markets, not โjust a coincidence.โ
And next โ history doesnโt have to repeat โ๏ธ but if it does:
๐ฅณ If the current gold rally lasts about 124โ128 days (like the previous ones), then BTC and the crypto market could start rising in about two months โ in the second half of December (after ~Dec 21โ25). Thatโs exactly when everyone will have decided itโs definitely a bear market and will be complaining to Father Frost and Santa Claus over Christmas and New Yearโs โ โwhy didnโt you gift me 100xโ โ and then the Christmas rally begins [usually BTC sets an ATH before the holidays, but in 2017 (often compared to this cycle) Total, Total 2, and Total 3 hit ATH on Jan 1โ5, though not everyone agrees that with all the changes and macro factors it even makes sense to talk about cycles, especially since January is historically one of the worst months for returns].
๐ช If you say this scenario contradicts historical returns for November/December and thereโs no point in kicking off a market run at year-end before the holidays, thereโs a second option โ if we look at the scale of goldโs prior rallies (21%, 35%), then with the current +27.4% and goldโs extreme RSI โ it could start correcting at any moment โ or stretch another 5โ10% higher.
โข๏ธ Judging by the duration of past rallies (number of days) โ gold could do this faster, which means cryptoโs rise could start as early as the end of October.
๐คซ On October 10 last year BTC also fell, just like recently on Oct 10โ11, and then set a local low around ~$58,820, dropping 8.65% in a few days from ~$64,470, after which by December 17 it rose 84%. On October 10, 2023 there was also a drop that continued on October 11 โ that was a local bottom, and then BTC climbed 68.5% to a local peak on December 8.
#theories ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฎโก๏ธ๐ช Think the bear market has begun? Bored, alts arenโt growing, and it feels like you shouldโve bought gold instead of crypto? Donโt jump to conclusions โ goldโs rally is a precursor:
๐งโโ๏ธ We ran research for you to show whatโs really happening in the market:
Keep your eyes on the hands โ or rather, on the candles.
๐ง First gold rally:
โข June 26 โ November 1, 2024.
โข 128 days, +21.7% growth.
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ What was BTC doing?
โข Right after gold started rising, it fell 28% and chopped in a wide range.
โข When gold stopped rising (Nov 1), Bitcoin dipped a bit more โ ๐ฅณ But starting Nov 5 it moved up and in 45 days gained over 61%.
๐ณ Do you know when BTCโs rise ended? December 17, 2024. And what happened two days later? Exactly โ gold started moving up again.
๐ง Second gold rally:
โข December 19, 2024 โ April 22, 2025, but April 22 printed a red candle.
โข 124 days, +35.7% growth.
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ What was BTC doing during this time? โ Falling, ranging, bored โ just like now.
โข When gold set a new ATH and showed a red candle on April 22 โ ๐ฅณ BTC started rising (from April 21โ22) and added +46.4%.
โข And gold, like Bitcoin earlier, chopped sideways.
๐ณ When did BTC go down again? August 14. And then?..
๐ง ..Third gold rally:
โข Five days after BTCโs drop, gold took off again.
โข In 58 days it grew by 27.4% โ faster than before.
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ What is BTC doing now? โ Falling, ranging, and groaning.
What are the takeawaysโ
๐ง Itโs obvious these coincidences arenโt random; weโre talking about liquidity tides and ebbs across financial markets, not โjust a coincidence.โ
And next โ history doesnโt have to repeat โ๏ธ but if it does:
๐ฅณ If the current gold rally lasts about 124โ128 days (like the previous ones), then BTC and the crypto market could start rising in about two months โ in the second half of December (after ~Dec 21โ25). Thatโs exactly when everyone will have decided itโs definitely a bear market and will be complaining to Father Frost and Santa Claus over Christmas and New Yearโs โ โwhy didnโt you gift me 100xโ โ and then the Christmas rally begins [usually BTC sets an ATH before the holidays, but in 2017 (often compared to this cycle) Total, Total 2, and Total 3 hit ATH on Jan 1โ5, though not everyone agrees that with all the changes and macro factors it even makes sense to talk about cycles, especially since January is historically one of the worst months for returns].
๐ช If you say this scenario contradicts historical returns for November/December and thereโs no point in kicking off a market run at year-end before the holidays, thereโs a second option โ if we look at the scale of goldโs prior rallies (21%, 35%), then with the current +27.4% and goldโs extreme RSI โ it could start correcting at any moment โ or stretch another 5โ10% higher.
โข๏ธ Judging by the duration of past rallies (number of days) โ gold could do this faster, which means cryptoโs rise could start as early as the end of October.
๐คซ On October 10 last year BTC also fell, just like recently on Oct 10โ11, and then set a local low around ~$58,820, dropping 8.65% in a few days from ~$64,470, after which by December 17 it rose 84%. On October 10, 2023 there was also a drop that continued on October 11 โ that was a local bottom, and then BTC climbed 68.5% to a local peak on December 8.
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#theories โก๏ธ๐ช๐ฆ๐งโโ๏ธ๐ฌ๐ดโโ ๏ธ Open shorts with TP at $58K because itโs a crash, itโs all over, time to stock up on food and prep for the apocalypse? Or is it not that simple?
โข UP, we broke down BTCโgold correlations . Now letโs look more closely at BTCโs behavior during gold rallies.
Taking the most recent gold rallies, hereโs what we seeโ
๐ง 1st GOLD rally:
โข GOLD:
Period: June 26, 2024 โ October 31, 2024
Rise: from ~$2,300 to ~$2,800
+21.74%
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ BTC during this time โ a series of drops:
Drop 1: -16.35% (-$10,429)
Drop 2: -29.27% (-$20,495)
Drop 3: -19.24% (-$12,526)
Drop 4: -11.49% (-$7,641)
๐ง 2nd GOLD rally:
โข GOLD:
Period: December 19, 2024 โ April 22, 2025
Rise: from ~$2,600 to ~$3,400
+30.77%
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ BTC during this time โ again a series of drops:
Drop 1: -14.31% (-$15,432)
Drop 2: -13.02% (-$13,350)
Drop 3: -15.82% (-$17,299)
Drop 4: -21.42% (-$21,311)
Drop 5: -17.45% (-$16,190)
Drop 6: -13.57% (-$11,682)
๐ง 3rd GOLD rally:
โข GOLD:
Period: August 19, 2025 โ Now
Rise: from ~$3,400 to ~$4,340
+27.65%
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ BTC once again falls while gold rises:
Drop 1: -13.85% (-$17,247)
Drop 2: -7.90% (-$9,316)
Drop 3: -16.89% (-$21,235)
๐ฅฅ For context:
โข In the first rally, from the highest point before the GOLD rally to the bottom, BTC fell 31% โ about $22,500 (0.382 Fib from the bear-market bottom).
โข In the second rally, from the highest point to the bottom, BTC was down 31% โ a $33,700 drawdown (0.382 Fib from the bear-market bottom).
๐ Right now BTC has fallen only 16%, and there have been just three pullbacks โ not 4 or 6 like before. If history repeats (-31%), it could drop to ~$86K, but:
โข This time the 350 SMA is at ~$101K (~-20% from peak). In a bullish scenario, BTC likely wonโt fall below $101K (could wick under $100K for FUD, then reclaim the 350 SMA with two touches) โ and the rally resumes.
Risks:
๐ In 2021 there were two approaches to the 350 SMA; the third broke it and kicked off the bear market. If the cycle is over, this could echo 2021 โ rivers of red.
Bull case:
โ๏ธ If the cycle is NOT over, and considering gold correlation + lag vs Nasdaq/S&P 500/Russell, passed/likely laws, ETFs, possible Trump airdrop + Hawleyโs Bill, tokenization trend, and whales not yet distributed into alts โ then this is a correction before new ATHs.
โฐ Timing (bull scenario):
โข Prior gold rallies lasted 124โ128 days (ending ~Dec 20โ25) โ BTC would start rising only then. Weโre at ~59 days now, but given goldโs % move, it could correct anytime โ meaning BTC could start rising anytime.
โข Prior dips below the 200 SMA lasted 73 and 44 days. If 44 days repeat, BTC reclaims the 200 SMA around Nov 28; if compressed (to ~15 days), upside could start around ~Nov 1.
โข UP, we broke down BTCโgold correlations . Now letโs look more closely at BTCโs behavior during gold rallies.
Taking the most recent gold rallies, hereโs what we seeโ
๐ง 1st GOLD rally:
โข GOLD:
Period: June 26, 2024 โ October 31, 2024
Rise: from ~$2,300 to ~$2,800
+21.74%
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ BTC during this time โ a series of drops:
Drop 1: -16.35% (-$10,429)
Drop 2: -29.27% (-$20,495)
Drop 3: -19.24% (-$12,526)
Drop 4: -11.49% (-$7,641)
๐ง 2nd GOLD rally:
โข GOLD:
Period: December 19, 2024 โ April 22, 2025
Rise: from ~$2,600 to ~$3,400
+30.77%
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ BTC during this time โ again a series of drops:
Drop 1: -14.31% (-$15,432)
Drop 2: -13.02% (-$13,350)
Drop 3: -15.82% (-$17,299)
Drop 4: -21.42% (-$21,311)
Drop 5: -17.45% (-$16,190)
Drop 6: -13.57% (-$11,682)
๐ง 3rd GOLD rally:
โข GOLD:
Period: August 19, 2025 โ Now
Rise: from ~$3,400 to ~$4,340
+27.65%
๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ BTC once again falls while gold rises:
Drop 1: -13.85% (-$17,247)
Drop 2: -7.90% (-$9,316)
Drop 3: -16.89% (-$21,235)
๐ฅฅ For context:
โข In the first rally, from the highest point before the GOLD rally to the bottom, BTC fell 31% โ about $22,500 (0.382 Fib from the bear-market bottom).
โข In the second rally, from the highest point to the bottom, BTC was down 31% โ a $33,700 drawdown (0.382 Fib from the bear-market bottom).
๐ Right now BTC has fallen only 16%, and there have been just three pullbacks โ not 4 or 6 like before. If history repeats (-31%), it could drop to ~$86K, but:
โข This time the 350 SMA is at ~$101K (~-20% from peak). In a bullish scenario, BTC likely wonโt fall below $101K (could wick under $100K for FUD, then reclaim the 350 SMA with two touches) โ and the rally resumes.
Risks:
๐ In 2021 there were two approaches to the 350 SMA; the third broke it and kicked off the bear market. If the cycle is over, this could echo 2021 โ rivers of red.
Bull case:
โ๏ธ If the cycle is NOT over, and considering gold correlation + lag vs Nasdaq/S&P 500/Russell, passed/likely laws, ETFs, possible Trump airdrop + Hawleyโs Bill, tokenization trend, and whales not yet distributed into alts โ then this is a correction before new ATHs.
โฐ Timing (bull scenario):
โข Prior gold rallies lasted 124โ128 days (ending ~Dec 20โ25) โ BTC would start rising only then. Weโre at ~59 days now, but given goldโs % move, it could correct anytime โ meaning BTC could start rising anytime.
โข Prior dips below the 200 SMA lasted 73 and 44 days. If 44 days repeat, BTC reclaims the 200 SMA around Nov 28; if compressed (to ~15 days), upside could start around ~Nov 1.
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Next up: TA analysis and my not financial advice.. Short version? By TA, itโs a total dumpster fireโฆ
Many indicators now suggest itโs time to exit the market locally, and yes โ weโre in a bear market. But the bulls still have a window of opportunity, which weโll discuss next.
Globally(1-5years), the crypto sector still looks great, but between October 10โ11 the balance of power shifted significantly, and weโll have to account for that.
๐
Many indicators now suggest itโs time to exit the market locally, and yes โ weโre in a bear market. But the bulls still have a window of opportunity, which weโll discuss next.
Globally(1-5years), the crypto sector still looks great, but between October 10โ11 the balance of power shifted significantly, and weโll have to account for that.
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