#TRADE WAR

As we know, Trump has already started it. Let's briefly break down what it is and how it might affect the markets.

A trade war is an economic confrontation between countries, involving higher tariffs, quotas, sanctions, and other protectionist measures aimed at limiting imports and boosting domestic production. These measures can trigger retaliatory actions from other nations, creating a cycle of economic sanctions.

### Recent Trade War Examples👇

➡️ USA vs China (2018-2020)
1️⃣ Trump accuses China of unfair trade practices.
2️⃣ Both countries impose "mutual" tariffs—USA on Chinese goods; China on American products.
3️⃣ As a result, global economic growth slowed down, some goods in the US became more expensive due to rising import costs, and investors started moving into gold.

➡️ USA vs EU (2019-2020)
1️⃣ Disputes arise over subsidies for Airbus and Boeing.
2️⃣ The US imposes tariffs on European products (wine, cheese, aircraft).
3️⃣ European manufacturers reduce exports, the US faces rising prices for imported goods, and market volatility surges.

> "Trade wars are good and easy to win."
> Donald Trump (2018)

History proves otherwise. Trade wars create uncertainty, increase global tensions, and raise risks across multiple industries.

Still, as we can see, Trump is a true "trade warrior".
It's his style to fight through economics. And given the fact that the US has the most powerful economy, this impacts the entire world. 💵

During his previous term, Trump engaged in "localized" trade wars, but this time, judging by his policies, he has already launched a "global trade war", which will likely have a much stronger impact on markets than in 2018-2020. 🔽

### HOW? WHAT’S NEXT?

During the 2018-2020 trade war, gold surged by more than 37%.
High-risk assets such as BTC, altcoins, and the Russell 2000 index were extremely volatile and began to collapse about 100 days after the start of the US-China trade war.

So, looking at the next year, unless Trump drastically changes course, high-risk assets will remain highly volatile, and capital outflows from them will increase. Investors will shift more funds into gold, which has already hit a new ATH.

### WHAT SHOULD WE DO?

➡️ Markets typically "absorb" economic shifts in 2-3 months, meaning we still have time for a final push in high-risk assets.
➡️ However, if BTC breaks key supports and consolidates below them on a higher timeframe (1W+), it’s time to exit high-risk assets, especially altcoins.

### GAME PLAN👇
1️⃣ Closely monitor BTC’s key support levels.
2️⃣ If altcoins start pumping, take profits and exit the market, even if the rally isn’t as strong as it was a few months ago.

### Quick Chart Breakdown

This is Bitfinex, a platform where whales have historically acted like insiders. In the previous cycle, they closed positions perfectly at the highs and accumulated at the bottom with great accuracy.

Now, for the third straight week, they’ve been buying massive amounts of Ethereum in the ETH/BTC pair.

### Alternative Scenario

If we look at Bitcoin’s recent charts, #btcshorts a pattern emerges:
- When BTC hits a local bottom, the biggest short positions are opened.
- After that, a strong bounce follows.

A clear example is January 13**—a massive short build-up coincided with a **local bottom, followed by a bounce.

Today, we see another huge short position, so I expect at least a rebound to 102-103K soon.

### My Plan
I’ll start accumulating major swing positions closer to FEB 4.

How did the scalp algorithm handle the night... 😉

🧸 The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 44 (Fear) right now – the lowest since October 2024. Looks like the market's feeling bearish vibes. Time to keep an eye out for those dips or maybe even a reversal play.

Got any more cash in your pocket? And what if I find something? 🧐

"Bybit CEO reports $2.1B in 24h liquidations, with total crypto liquidations estimated to be around $8-10B; commits to publishing full liquidation data for transparency — link"

#hype TP1 !

President of Mexico: "Donald Trump will delay the tariff increase for a month!"

Now that’s some top-tier news! 😂🔥

#btc >98k...

98% of traders in paid channels last months look like