All are heavily reliant on immigration which has plenty of pitfalls. The EU is doomed to irrelevance before 2040.

Simply incredible. Canada, New Zealand, & Australia adopting the same mass migration policies at the same time. This is not the cure all their respective policymakers are selling it as. The demand for more migrants to pay pensions for those retiring in 2050 will be epic.

Net-migration for the year ending June 2023:

USA ⬆️1,138,989
Canada ⬆️1,131,181
UK ⬆️672,000
Australia ⬆️518,087
NZ ⬆️101,518

Canada = absolute level of immigration as the US.

The State of Texas has seen Non Hispanic White births plummet. NHWs make up ~40% of the Texan population but only ~25% of births in 2022 according to CDC wonder and analysis by Global Demographics @nonebusinesshey. Truly astounding. NHW Texan TFR must be quite low.

In 2065 Israel is projected to have almost 20 million people. Of this number around 80.5% will be Jewish (40% of who are projected to be Ultra Orthodox Haredi with the remainder religious, secular+other) & 19.5% Arabs(~90% Muslim and 10% Christians+Druze).

One child families will never become the norm in the U.S. Zero child couples will become far more common. This is an even worse outcome obviously but hardly surprising given economic & social trends & policymakers intentional ignorance of the consequences.

Proportion of total births that were fourth or higher order for mothers in the US, by birth country, Jan-Oct 2023. Indian, Chinese, & Colombians have smaller families in the United States while Somali, Congolese, Afghan, Burmese & Laotians have huge families. The TFR for Indian and Chinese Americans is also quite low. Between 1.3-1.4.

My honest guess is ~20-25% of American women currently aged 25-44 will remain childless. The highest level ever. TFR will probably fall to sub 1.5. Still much higher than the East Asian average or that in Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland or Canada but no longer exceptional.

Know many people are saying this is no big deal & that US Treasury holders will take up the slack but I disagree. There are many risks. Also China, Saudi Arabia & others have not even exited our T-note market yet. As a country ages+has many bills more expensive debt suboptimal.

Also, as you can see on the table, of our remaining major foreign treasury security holders 2 are likely to drop off for security reasons (China as they want no Russia repeat+KSA due to 9/11 potential $1T suit) & 5 are aged & will have to dramatically up pension & medical spending in years ahead.

Thus debt sustainability (especially in the context of our rapidly aging population and plummeting fertility rate) is a huge area of future concern.

The nation (of a roughly similar size as the U.S. State of Iowa) has around 170M people & likely to reach its population peak at around 200M by 2050. This is good for the country as it is likely to enjoy a 30 year plus demographic dividend & is already very densely populated.

The UK had its highest ever recorded TFR in years 1815-1820 at~5.5. Life expectancy in the country at that time was ~40. TFR then fell relatively steadily before leveling off at~4.8 by 1830. Huge fall between 1880-1899 from 4.75 to 3.58. Then another big fall to 1935 1.75 TFR.

TFR then ticked upwards in the postwar demographic boom period hitting a high of 2.69 in 1947 & stayed above replacement until 1972. Since 1972 TFR has persistently stayed below replacement (like almost all countries in Europe)hitting an all time recorded low of ⬇️1.5 last year.

Home ownership rates in Romania, Lithuania, Croatia, Macedonia, & Slovakia are amongst the highest on earth. At the time of this study (2016) TFRs of these countries were as follows: Romania was on 1.68, Croatia (1.43), Lithuania (1.69), North Macedonia (1.78), Slovakia (1.48).

My reason for this post was because a few people have stated in the past that there was a strong correlation between home ownership and TFR. The lower homeownership countries on the list had a 2016 TFR of France (1.89), Denmark (1.78), Germany (1.59), & Switzerland (1.55).

All of Southeast Asia likely to be below replacement around 2030 based on current TFR trajectories. Cambodia,Laos & East Timor may hold out all the way until 2030 before succumbing while Myanmar+Indonesia are likely to join the rest that have already capitulated during the 2020s.