Of all Central Asian countries here Turkmenistan is in worst shape. Mass emigration fuels population decline, horrifically bad governance also pushes. Tajikistan also has very high emigration but a TFR to partially make up for it. KZ has huge ethnic difference in fertility.

Uzbekistan falling fast but from 3.21 so it will likely not converge with KZ until 2028-2030. UZ also has a very decent population size & should just get to 50 million before plateauing. Kyrgyzstan may make it to 10 million before doing the same.

Back to Kazakhstan & the internal fertility differential. The fertility rate of ~3.0 for ethnic Kazakhs (~70% of the population) is roughly 3 times higher than the ~1.0 for ethnic Russians (15% of the population). This is based off of 2025 information from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan

The fertility rate of Non Hispanic White Americans is higher than that of Mexico, the UK, Sri Lanka, Australia, Tunisia, Colombia, & Brazil to name a few. In 2025 having the largest U.S. race (191 million in size) with slightly increasing fertility rates above 1.5 is pretty significant.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2042261192433959239

The US is one of the only countries in the developed world where Gen Alpha will be larger than Gen X. Gen X cohort years saw an average of 3,431,913 births annually. So far the U.S. Gen Alpha cohort years has seen an average of 3,790,268 annual births. Politically significant.

While European Boomers & Xers will be able to impose their political will to a degree on Millennial, Zoomer, & Alpha for many more years, in the U.S. younger generations will have the numbers to push back on everything from taxes to immigration to foreign policy as soon as 2030.

The Ukrainian “births staircase” highlighting the demographic collapse there is truly horrific to behold.  While births were already on a very bad trajectory before the war the births & fertility collapse from 2022 has made things existential.  Unless at least half of the Ukrainian female core cohort (age 18-40) diaspora returns postwar its is hard to picture a national durvival scenario even with a TFR rebound.

The principal fertile female population of China is headed for a massive baked in drop between now and 2050.  This population will plummet by 42% from ~190 million to ~110 million (with a drop of almost half for the cohort already born that will be ages 24-40 in 2050, from 148M to 78M).  Thus even if the China pulls off a fertility rebound miracle by 2050 to 1.8 TFR births then would still only be 5,500,000 against 7.92M today.

South Korea and Ukraine on track to make out even worse.

TFRs in Sri Lanka by ethnicity in 2024 based on the 2024 Census:

Sinhalese 1.2
Sri Lanka Tamil 1.5
Indian Tamil 1.7
Moor/Muslim 2.0
Others 1.3

If this ethnic fertility is largely maintained then by 2050 the Buddhist Sinhalese majority would fall from ~75% today to just 2/3rds by 2050, Hindu Tamils would increase from ~15% today to ~17% by 2050, & Sri Lankan Muslims (Moors) would increase from ~10% today to 15% by 2050.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2044867956732022935

The existential disaster for Ukraine from the war is that ~56% of Ukrainian refugees currently abroad are under the age of 35 including 1,798,900 children who’ve now spent 4 years integrating into foreign education systems. Next generation may not return.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-third-ukraines-children-remain-displaced-four-years-war-unicef

South Korea is unique in the world for its density of (& acceptance for) so called "No-Kids Zones". Across the RoK Over 500 cafes, restaurants, & public facilities (including some libraries) explicitly ban children under the age of 13 to maintain a quiet atmosphere for adults.

Possible impact of such zones is that they can psychologically & socially discourage young adults from transitioning into parenthood. A few dozen across the country likely would have little impact but the normalization of hundreds of these zones signals children are a nuisance.

Countries like South Korea have managed to create a more effective one child policy than even the Peoples Republic of China pulled off. Taiwan has also embraced discouraging children in more spaces as segments of society become more hostile to children.

https://www.children.org.tw/english/news_detail/2024_public_spaces_child_friendly_survey

🇪🇸 👶 Spanish births essential stayed flat so far this year (less than 1% increase in births for January-February 2026 period against the same period last year) despite substantial levels of immigration. Similar to the Canadian example only a bit worse (Spain TFR 1.1 vs 1.25 Canada).

Of the 35 million people plus countries in Europe, Spain (1.1), Poland (1.1), and Italy (1.14) have the lowest TFRs. Ukraine would also be up there but its population is now well below 35M with a TFR below 1.0.

In 2026 Countries from China to Germany to Japan to Russia are on track to lose an enormous number of workers.  China alone is to lose ~8,000,000 annually (or well over than the entire population of Singapore).  This situation will only worsen in the years ahead.

Yet this is not translating into more jobs for Chinese youth due to a structural mismatch as record numbers of university graduates (more than 10 million in 2025!)seek white collar roles but huge numbers of retirements just see more manufacturing or service jobs become available.