The future belongs to those who show up & that’s not the end of the world & may even be a form of healing. There is a possible future where (if Amish high level TFR of literally their entire past persists) 23rd century America will be home to 300M Amish.
Btw know demographic predictions for more than 50 years out are meaningless so those for more than 150 years out are even more so. Point is even if most groups see their fertility plummet to catastrophic levels there will be breeder cults in many places that will fill the void.
Btw know demographic predictions for more than 50 years out are meaningless so those for more than 150 years out are even more so. Point is even if most groups see their fertility plummet to catastrophic levels there will be breeder cults in many places that will fill the void.
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Demographics Now and Then
The future belongs to those who show up & that’s not the end of the world & may even be a form of healing. There is a possible future where (if Amish high level TFR of literally their entire past persists) 23rd century America will be home to 300M Amish.…
Obviously this is more true for places like the U.S. (Mennonites, Amish), Finland (Laestadians), & the Netherlands (Orthodox Calvinists), than places like South Korea, Spain, or Taiwan.
Picture shows the Dutch Bible Belt which contains many high fertility religiously observant people (~400,000 & growing).
Picture shows the Dutch Bible Belt which contains many high fertility religiously observant people (~400,000 & growing).
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In a match up against Thailand, Cambodia boasts very few advantages. One however, is its fertility rate which is more than double that of its richer, more populous, & militarily more advanced neighbor. Last year Cambodia probably had around 310,000 births to Thailand’s 462,000.
In terms of overall population Thailand has ~66 million people to Cambodia’s ~18M. So more than two thirds Thailand’s number of births despite having a population less than a third of Thailand’s size.
In terms of overall population Thailand has ~66 million people to Cambodia’s ~18M. So more than two thirds Thailand’s number of births despite having a population less than a third of Thailand’s size.
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If final EU births for 2024 are confirmed at close to the preliminary estimate of 3,556,000 then US births have officially exceeded total EU births for the first time (by approximately 72,000). This divergence is likely to continue and could widen far further.
One of the major factors is likely relatively high Hispanic TFR which is close to 2.0. Immigrant & immigrant descendant fertility appears to have been falling harder in the EU than the U.S. In addition, Non Hispanic White US TFR is far higher than ethnic European TFRs on average (~1.5 vs ~1.3).
One of the major factors is likely relatively high Hispanic TFR which is close to 2.0. Immigrant & immigrant descendant fertility appears to have been falling harder in the EU than the U.S. In addition, Non Hispanic White US TFR is far higher than ethnic European TFRs on average (~1.5 vs ~1.3).
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From 2020 to 2050 the elderly population of earth (age 60+) is projected to roughly double from ~one billion to~two billion people while the number of children age 0-14 will fall from~2.1 billion to ~1.9 billion with the vast majority of those being in Africa & developing Asia.
The UN figures are almost certainly too optimistic on the age 0-14 population front as they fail to take into account the collapse of fertility rates in the developing world (from the Middle East to Latin America to Developing Asia).
The world of 2050 will see the elderly concentrated in Europe and East Asia & the young concentrated in Africa and Developing Asia (India, mainly due to population momentum maintaining a huge youth population, Pakistan, etc).
The UN figures are almost certainly too optimistic on the age 0-14 population front as they fail to take into account the collapse of fertility rates in the developing world (from the Middle East to Latin America to Developing Asia).
The world of 2050 will see the elderly concentrated in Europe and East Asia & the young concentrated in Africa and Developing Asia (India, mainly due to population momentum maintaining a huge youth population, Pakistan, etc).
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Canada’s lowest low fertility provinces (TFR of 1.0-1.29) will face depopulation at varying times. BC+Ontario have very low TFR but massive influxes of low TFR immigrants (kicking can down the road for even larger crisis in future), Yukon+Newfoundland & Labrador+New Brunswick+Nova Scotia have fewer immigrants thus will face it sooner.
Alberta, Saskatchewan, & Manitoba are interesting as they have decent (for Canadian provinces)fertility rates of between 1.41-1.63 that is likely primarily driven by high Anglo Canadian TFR as all three also have very high levels of immigration on a per capita basis.
Prince Edward Island has lowest low fertility of 1.16 but also amongst (if not) the highest per capita immigration of Canadian provinces.
Culture of Toronto+Vancouver (which attracts most immigrants)is root cause of low TFR. Don’t buy high home prices as the determining factor of low TFR. Rather people in BC & Ontario are more focused on career/making money than having kids & many immigrants have similar focus.
Alberta, Saskatchewan, & Manitoba are interesting as they have decent (for Canadian provinces)fertility rates of between 1.41-1.63 that is likely primarily driven by high Anglo Canadian TFR as all three also have very high levels of immigration on a per capita basis.
Prince Edward Island has lowest low fertility of 1.16 but also amongst (if not) the highest per capita immigration of Canadian provinces.
Culture of Toronto+Vancouver (which attracts most immigrants)is root cause of low TFR. Don’t buy high home prices as the determining factor of low TFR. Rather people in BC & Ontario are more focused on career/making money than having kids & many immigrants have similar focus.
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Hong Kong lawmaker William Wong claims rise of AI generated virtual partners partly to blame for HK’s low birth rate, noting such companions offer emotional support & lack interpersonal conflicts. Likely among the first of many policymakers that will be making this assertion in coming years.
https://t.co/vhex77rMX8
https://t.co/vhex77rMX8
South China Morning Post
‘Obedient’ AI partners partly to blame for Hong Kong’s low births: lawmaker
‘To encourage childbirth today, we not only compete with pets, but also with AI,’ legislator and academic William Wong says.
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If confirmed (Venezuela pretty difficult but probably accurate & Guyana I’m not sure based on data I’ve seen) then no countries or territories in the Americas besides Haiti & French Guyana (population sub 300K) are above replacement, Canada & USA+Bermuda
⬇️ replacement for decades already.
Looks like all of the Western Hemisphere will be below replacement by 2030.
⬇️ replacement for decades already.
Looks like all of the Western Hemisphere will be below replacement by 2030.
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Fertility rate in African Capitals is a teaser of what’s to come nationally & is plummeting. In Ghana’s greater Accra TFR hit ~replacement in 2021/2022 & probably below already. Addis Ababa TFR also below replacement & like Kinshasa far below national TFR. Why? Social media+global trends get there first.
Capital cities in Sub Saharan Africa (with the exception of a few where largest cities are not the capital like Lagos) are more prosperous w/better network access than rural areas and smaller cities and towns. Many people move there for work as they do in most other countries.
Capital cities in Sub Saharan Africa (with the exception of a few where largest cities are not the capital like Lagos) are more prosperous w/better network access than rural areas and smaller cities and towns. Many people move there for work as they do in most other countries.
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Suicide deaths in South Korea reached the highest numbers in 13 years in 2024. 14,439 took their own lives, daily average recorded at 39.5. By age, those in their 50s accounted for 21% of total, followed by 19% in 40s, 16.5% in 60s & 13.4% in their 30s.
https://t.co/H0YaROpccP
https://t.co/H0YaROpccP
The Korea Herald
Suicide deaths in S. Korea hit 13-yr high in 2024; daily average at 39.5: data
Suicide deaths in South Korea reached the largest number in 13 years last year, a local suicide prevention agency said Wednesday. According to preliminary data
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Pronatalist LARPing by so called “trad wives” is not helpful & is in fact counterproductive as it makes it seem there is a cultural tide is shifting towards larger families while this is largely not the case. TFR is also apparently higher in countries where more women work.
Interesting that in places that try & combine rigid traditional cultural norms w/modern economic & social realities (South Korea as well as to a lesser extent other East Asian countries) the result has been demographic disaster. Does not seem to work to have feet in both worlds.
Interesting that in places that try & combine rigid traditional cultural norms w/modern economic & social realities (South Korea as well as to a lesser extent other East Asian countries) the result has been demographic disaster. Does not seem to work to have feet in both worlds.
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For comparison ~39% of American households have children (against 23.8% for the EU average) source:US Census. For further comparison even around ~39% of Canadian households have children.
Only Ireland, Slovakia, Czechia, & Cyprus are at a comparatively ok level within the European Union, & that is likely to fade fast.
Only Ireland, Slovakia, Czechia, & Cyprus are at a comparatively ok level within the European Union, & that is likely to fade fast.
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