Egypt sees a surprisingly modest decline in 2025. But I think there is likely a major secular vs religious women divide with secular women heeding Sisi’s demand to have South Korean level TFR while religious women still have more than 2. Need more data to be sure though.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028437837381595282

🇹🇼 👶 Taiwanese births now down more than 23% this year (January & February) compared to the same time in 2025! Full demographic capitulation which (if constant for the rest of the year) would put the fertility rate below 0.60!

Such extreme demographic decline means Taiwan will have less than 100,000 births this year, age even faster, & from a labor standpoint will have very very few future workers. While the absolute worst case scenario is a TFR of 0.00 this is (in the real world) dangerously close.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/default.aspx

Many countries that have had a recent demographic renaissance have started this year very rough. Mongolian births ⬇️ ~9% & if this trend continues would put them below 2.2 TFR for the 1st time since 2006. Uzbekistan continuing large decline⬇️14%. TFR may be lowest since 2020.

Current demographic situation in Latam well worth review. Let’s start with the largest. Brazil has recently somewhat settled ~1.50 with much of recent decline due to plunging TFR amongst the non White population. Mexico continues to see major decline with 2025 TFR below 1.4.

Colombia & Argentina are both likely below lowest low (TFR of 1.3). Peru is somewhere around 1.6 & Chile is ~1.1 while even Venezuela is almost certainly below replacement level fertility. The entire region is deep into its demographic decline.

This article shows many major population projections are far off.  U.S. Census Bureau's latest from late 2025 still show Africa at 4 billion+ people by 2100 even though it’s more likely to be below 2.75 billion w/Sub Saharan Africa as low as 2.0-2.25B.

You only reach these 4B plus projections if you almost completely ignore steadily falling fertility rates in Africa or assume they will reverse. Based on what we see all over the continent from Kenya to Botswana to Ghana, this is clearly not the case. TFR is broadly falling.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/world-population-china-africa-asia

I’m guessing the disastrously low Non-EU born fertility rates of ~1.0 & below are overwhelmingly Ukrainians. Even tiny Malta saw an influx of at least 2,000 Ukrainian refugees. These ultra low TFRs for non EU are in Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, & Hungary so checks out.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2032578233305075994

Canada is seeing its population growth decline rapidly and house prices finally come down from their insane heights. However, the number of permanent migrants per quarter for a country with a population slightly larger than California is insane. Almost 100,000 permanent migrants in Q4 2025. Canada has a population of ~41 million.

Natural increase of the Canadian population now nonexistent as TFR stays below lowest low of 1.3.

Graphic from @charliessmirkley.

China won’t become a chaotic war monger seeking expansion or conflict as some claim. China has no gigantic youth masses clamoring for foreign glory (just a few wolf warriors). They want to position themselves as the anti-chaos choice, a stable option. Winning without fighting.

The China of today is not the kind of country that launches a SMO into its neighbor or suddenly attacks a country it deemed a long term threat to an ally. This is not a pro China sentiment. Just looking at this political, cultural, & demographic reality.

China has many weaknesses. Geography, lack of real allies, & demographics (of course) amongst them. America has many strengths, geography, natural resource abundance, alliances. But serious serious mistakes have been made & this will have very real and long term consequences.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2032747988993368308

IMHO Uganda likely 3.75 TFR or lower by 2030. 3.0 by 2035 & close to local replacement by 2040. Smart phone in every hand & modest standard of living increases could supercharge falling fertility. Unless food crisis stemming from the possible fertilizer crisis crushes incomes.

But Uganda may also be in a phase where dearer food prices also push people to have less children.

https://x.com/comtewasright/status/2034608516955050250

As the Economist has pointed out, the African continent has more emigrants (20M) outside the continent than even India (despite having a smaller population). The publication views continued mass migration to Europe & the West as inevitable, this is untrue.

European countries could nearshore factories when there’s no longer working populations to support them at home. Then a tax (the difference between a good local wage & European low wage) could be paid into the pensions system of the European country whose company near-shored.

Solutions like this are certainly within the realm of the possible. It would be difficult and require rewriting international labor agreements but it is certainly not impossible just as continued mass migration is by no means inevitable.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/04/24/emigration-from-africa-will-change-the-world

South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland have some of the lowest fertility rates in Sub Saharan Africa they also have the highest smartphone penetration rates. South Africa is barely above replacement, Botswana is on 2.5-2.7, Swaziland & Lesotho both below 2.8.

Kenya & Ghana also have high penetration rates and their TFRs have also both fallen to around 3.5 in recent years and will likely be at or below 3.0 by 2030. This compares to 6.0
in most of the Sahel with very low penetration rates.

https://prod-cms.gsmaintelligence.com/research-file-download?assetId=12080&reportId=50121

If this South Korean demographic rebound maintained then if anything UN projections were not optimistic enough lol. Even in the below projection RoK was not forecast to hit 0.90 until the 2030s & could conceivably come close this year even if coming months are not as positive.

This is happening even as Seoul property is more unaffordable than ever. My projection for South Korea’s TFR floor was 0.75 but it ended up being 0.72. Even this lower level is higher than floor of other places in East Asia like Taiwan (which may be sub 0.7 in 2026) & Hong Kong.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2036714422043873703

Unlike Spain or Japan or Canada, or just about any other country, China is simply far too big to mitigate this with some mix of AI and labor policy changes. China certainly won’t collapse anytime soon but they will try radical solutions the rest of the world hasn’t considered.

Colombia has TFR close to 1.2 these days. Around the same level as Chile, Argentina, & Uruguay despite having far lower Per Capita GDP (in both PPP and nominal terms) & being far more ethnically diverse. The collapse is thus not tied directly to a specific race or income level.

Though it is worth noting that there is almost certainly a certain income minimum where past which point one is able to have a smartphone & engage in more non essential consumption & changing of economic & cultural priorities.

That is what we see in places as diverse as Nepal, Swaziland, Bhutan, Botswana, Sri Lanka, & Cuba.

Italians still emigrating in huge numbers. In 2023 158,000 people emigrated from Italy, including ~114,000 Italian citizens.  In 2024 this rose to 191,000, a 20.5% increase year over year. Of these, 156,000 were Italian citizens (36% emigration increase).

The annual Italian citizen emigration loss is larger than the greater metropolitan population of Salerno. On top of this Italy sees 37,000+ natural decline every year.

https://www.istat.it/en/press-release/demographic-indicators-year-2024/

As of 2026, total number of Italians living abroad surpassed 7.3 million (according to AIRE), now outnumbering foreign residents within Italy by nearly two million. BUT this is all Italian citizens abroad including those in ARG & BZ who gained citizenship.

These millions of Italian citizen Argentines & Brazilians should offer a potential demographic lifeline to Italy but this is unlikely as they are often among the better off & not doing horribly at home, & as Italian citizens they have the option to immigrate anywhere in the EU.

They may even move to Norway or Switzerland on their Italian passport. Sadly for Italy if 150,000+ Italian citizens emigrate annually it is doubtful they can convince a significant chunk of the citizens diaspora to return.

https://italianismo.com.br/en/italianos-no-exterior-ja-somam-mais-de-73-milhoes-aponta-governo/

Japanese fertility rate has been higher than South Korea’s continuously since early 2000s, & the gap had widened dramatically in recent years (with a 0.48-0.49 TFR difference from 2020-2023). The gap narrowed significantly in 2024 & 2025 & TFRs may converge at ~1.05 before 2030.