As far back as 2018 & 2021 there were reports circulating that Turkmenistan’s population would be less than half its claimed 6.2M+ population. Turkmen leadership is likely amongst the worst in the region and world.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/turkmenistan-population-decline-exodus/31355045.html

~200,000 war brides & military spouses immigrated to the U.S. from East & Southeast Asia between 1945 & 1975. The specific number of spouses from 1947 to 1975 from Japan totaled 66,681, from Korea 28,205, from the Philippines 51,747, from Thailand 11,660, & from Vietnam 8,040.

Interesting piece of military & demographic history.  If this sort of demographic/social history interests you then you may want to look at David Courtright’s “Violent Land: Single Men and Social Disorder from the Frontier to the Inner City” & similar books.

According to the UN the fertility rate of ultra impoverished  South Sudan crashed from above 5.0 in 2014 to just ~3.85 less than a decade later (in 2023).   Over the same period births plummeted from around 440,000 in 2014 to just ~330,000 in 2023.  Demographic collapse is happening almost everywhere. 

Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning) is a real‑time experiment in demographic disintegration. Home to abandoned apartments, shuttered schools, collapsing local tax bases, hospitals consolidating/closing, & entire towns with just elderly, & losing 10% of population a decade.

The region lost ~1,000,000 people in 2024 alone with Heilongjiang losing 428,000, Liaoning 270,000, & Jilin 221,000.

https://www.visiontimes.com/2025/11/26/is-chinas-northeast-disappearing-ghost-cities-spread-as-housing-prices-collapse.html

Gen Alpha in Laos, Honduras, and Papua New Guinea will be far larger than that of Taiwan.  That of Nepal, Guatemala, & South Sudan, will be far larger than that of South Korea. While TFR is falling almost everywhere how fast & far will determine the destiny of nations.

Currently Laos, Honduras, & PNG have less than half the population of Taiwan. Guatemala has around a third of the population of the RoK & South Sudan around a fourth.

The reason we have a global fertility crisis is because culture has changed
in an inhuman way.  Humans are created for belonging, purpose, family,
community,shared struggle,& interdependence not consumerism,
career-firstism, digital substitutes for relationships, & individualism.

Cash handouts do not fix this, tax breaks don’t fix this, & disingenuous
culture wars certainly don’t fix it. The “culture” created over the past
several decades is hurting society.  It has pushed isolation, made irl social
interaction harder, & rewarded horrible social behavior.

Virtually every member of the political, business, & tech elite is fighting
to preserve this negative “culture” so don’t look to politicians, tech billionaires, or social media personalities to turn things around.  Do it in your own life.

Put away the phone more & more each day (remember that social media is not real life).  Don’t get caught up in the noise or the scroll as it is custom designed to make you feel empty & craving it more each day.  Keep the strongest bonds with your family & friends.

Young Millennials, Zoomers & Gen Alphas are the future.  If they can’t break free of the hellish culture that has been foisted upon them our national future is cooked.  It will be a long trek to fix things , but it’s on a path that we humans were meant to walk.

Uzbekistan falling from very healthy fertility back in the direction of replacement rapidly. Fell to 3.21 in 2025 from 3.45 in 2023 and 3.35 in 2024. Will likely fall to around 3.0 this year. Likely to be around replacement by 2030.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028172156958306743

In reference to Ukrainian demographics catastrophic is an understatement. After a terrible 2025 births fall another 16% in January and February of 2026. TFR well⬇️1.0. Unless millions of Ukrainians return, Ukraine will demographically dissolve. One two punch of collapsing births & mass flight of young women due to war is lethal. Sadly millions assimilated are abroad unlikely to return.

The Ukrainian comeback cohort born 2008-2013 has a massive component that has now grown up abroad. The eldest were 14 when they left Ukraine and 18 now the youngest were 8-9 and are now 12-13. Those are core development years.

https://x.com/_kinez_/status/2028218465509605484

South Korean fertility rate roughly tracking (& even exceeding) this recovery in 2024, 2025, & with preliminaries in 2026 btw…

Ethnic Greek fertility rate in Hellas & ethnic Turk fertility rate in Türkiye may be below 1.2 this year. Very very steep drops in Türkiye since 2016 while Greece has been below 1.5 since 1987 & below 1.3 since 2023.

Know I’ve said this a lot but every new month of data seems to make it more & more certain. Black American TFR will continue to plummet until at least 1.2-1.3 level. Non Hispanic White American TFR seems destined to hover around ~1.5 with a much more stable & higher floor.

https://x.com/accuratecaption/status/2027395645959508385

Egypt sees a surprisingly modest decline in 2025. But I think there is likely a major secular vs religious women divide with secular women heeding Sisi’s demand to have South Korean level TFR while religious women still have more than 2. Need more data to be sure though.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2028437837381595282

🇹🇼 👶 Taiwanese births now down more than 23% this year (January & February) compared to the same time in 2025! Full demographic capitulation which (if constant for the rest of the year) would put the fertility rate below 0.60!

Such extreme demographic decline means Taiwan will have less than 100,000 births this year, age even faster, & from a labor standpoint will have very very few future workers. While the absolute worst case scenario is a TFR of 0.00 this is (in the real world) dangerously close.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/default.aspx

Many countries that have had a recent demographic renaissance have started this year very rough. Mongolian births ⬇️ ~9% & if this trend continues would put them below 2.2 TFR for the 1st time since 2006. Uzbekistan continuing large decline⬇️14%. TFR may be lowest since 2020.

Current demographic situation in Latam well worth review. Let’s start with the largest. Brazil has recently somewhat settled ~1.50 with much of recent decline due to plunging TFR amongst the non White population. Mexico continues to see major decline with 2025 TFR below 1.4.

Colombia & Argentina are both likely below lowest low (TFR of 1.3). Peru is somewhere around 1.6 & Chile is ~1.1 while even Venezuela is almost certainly below replacement level fertility. The entire region is deep into its demographic decline.

This article shows many major population projections are far off.  U.S. Census Bureau's latest from late 2025 still show Africa at 4 billion+ people by 2100 even though it’s more likely to be below 2.75 billion w/Sub Saharan Africa as low as 2.0-2.25B.

You only reach these 4B plus projections if you almost completely ignore steadily falling fertility rates in Africa or assume they will reverse. Based on what we see all over the continent from Kenya to Botswana to Ghana, this is clearly not the case. TFR is broadly falling.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/world-population-china-africa-asia

I’m guessing the disastrously low Non-EU born fertility rates of ~1.0 & below are overwhelmingly Ukrainians. Even tiny Malta saw an influx of at least 2,000 Ukrainian refugees. These ultra low TFRs for non EU are in Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, & Hungary so checks out.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2032578233305075994