This is the opposite of what is happening to the electorates in Germany, Italy, and Spain. There the older electorate is getting larger as young boomers and Xers form an enormous chunk of the population (while Xers are the smallest completed postwar US generation).
Political systems dominated by older voters who push their agenda at the price of young voters interests darken their views of the future, making them less optimistic and less likely to want to have children.
Political systems dominated by older voters who push their agenda at the price of young voters interests darken their views of the future, making them less optimistic and less likely to want to have children.
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Italy has one of the oldest electorates in the world. Gen X, Boomers, & Silent Generation voters are up to 73% of the electorate today. Young people have very little political voice. In 2029 this older cohort will still make up two thirds of the electorate. Only in 2033 will Millennials, Zoomers, & the oldest Generation Alpha’s combine to form 43% of the electorate.
So what does this mean? The old cohort will continue to dictate who is elected, how money is spent, & what becomes law. Those under 45 largely forced to just take it or emigrate. & many are voting with their feet.
So what does this mean? The old cohort will continue to dictate who is elected, how money is spent, & what becomes law. Those under 45 largely forced to just take it or emigrate. & many are voting with their feet.
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Article on emigration of young South Koreans today finds that intense social pressures are main reasons for emigration. Specifically,the ultra-selective education system,constant & fierce professional competition, & rigid/unreasonable social expectations.
SOLUTION: breakdown the ultra-selective education system and ultra-competitive job atmosphere. Doing so will not lead to the economic collapse of South Korea. On the contrary, its continued presence imperils the very existence of future Korean generations.
This needs to be done immediately as the educational,professional,& social pressure makes up to 20,000 young Koreans annually feel stifled & miserable enough to emigrate. A significant number for RoK. Just imagine how those who feel forced to stay feel. No wonder TFR is 0.80…
South Korean society should also make crucial jobs that are currently seen as inauspicious and undesirable (many trades, running family businesses, factory jobs etc) have the social standing they deserve. This is a huge but essential shift in current thinking.
https://www.planete-coree.com/en/background-to-emigration-of-young-south-koreans/
SOLUTION: breakdown the ultra-selective education system and ultra-competitive job atmosphere. Doing so will not lead to the economic collapse of South Korea. On the contrary, its continued presence imperils the very existence of future Korean generations.
This needs to be done immediately as the educational,professional,& social pressure makes up to 20,000 young Koreans annually feel stifled & miserable enough to emigrate. A significant number for RoK. Just imagine how those who feel forced to stay feel. No wonder TFR is 0.80…
South Korean society should also make crucial jobs that are currently seen as inauspicious and undesirable (many trades, running family businesses, factory jobs etc) have the social standing they deserve. This is a huge but essential shift in current thinking.
https://www.planete-coree.com/en/background-to-emigration-of-young-south-koreans/
Planète Corée
Background to emigration of young South Koreans - Planète Corée
Background to emigration of young South Koreans - What's behind this flight of South Korean youth? Where does the problem come from?
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Absolutely incredible that China will likely see a population decline over the next 50 years that is equal to the entire population of the United States.
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Ethnic Chinese TFR around the world is hitting new depths. There are a total of ~6,900,000 Chinese Malaysians (that is a larger number than the entire population of Singapore). Their TFR for 2025 was just 0.67! That’s worse than the catastrophic levels we saw in Taiwan (~0.72).
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2023127994219528351
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2023127994219528351
X (formerly Twitter)
Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) on X
Since Malaysia reported the birth statistics for Q4 2025, it is now possible to give some updated TFRs for the whole of 2025 (2024 in brackets)
Malaysia 1.42 (1.55)
Bumiputera 1.73 (1.85)
Chinese 0.67 (0.89)
Indians 1.04 (1.11)
Malaysia 1.42 (1.55)
Bumiputera 1.73 (1.85)
Chinese 0.67 (0.89)
Indians 1.04 (1.11)
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Demographics Now and Then
Ethnic Chinese TFR around the world is hitting new depths. There are a total of ~6,900,000 Chinese Malaysians (that is a larger number than the entire population of Singapore). Their TFR for 2025 was just 0.67! That’s worse than the catastrophic levels we…
Heilongjiang & Shanghai are only areas larger than 6.9 million people that really give ethnic Chinese Malaysians a run for their money for the lowest TFR for ethnic Chinese crown. Shanghai has ~25M & HL ~30M people & their respective fertility rates may be as low as 0.53/.52.
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Russian births hit their lowest level on record in 2025. Under 1.2 million Russians were born and over 1.8 million died. The fertility rate of the Russian federation also broke below 1.4 for the first time in almost two decades.
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-fertility-rate-falls-for-10th-straight-year-reaching-new-low-15285
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-fertility-rate-falls-for-10th-straight-year-reaching-new-low-15285
UNITED24 Media
Russia’s Fertility Rate Falls for 10th Straight Year, Reaching New Low
Russia's birth rate has fallen for a decade, with the total fertility rate projected at 1.374 children per woman by 2025, according to Rosstat data.
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Many Russia observers in the media consistently overlook the 2008-2016 Russian comeback cohort. That cohort saw between 1,713,000-1,942,000 births annually. The youngest in this cohort turn 18 this year. Russian conscription age begins at 18. Russian 1994-2003 cohort was the smallest & is currently impacting births.
Even if TFR stays low (below 1.4) expect births to steadily increase over the next decade as the larger cohort born from 2008 onward gradually becomes parents.
Even if TFR stays low (below 1.4) expect births to steadily increase over the next decade as the larger cohort born from 2008 onward gradually becomes parents.
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Countries never see how bad emigration can be for them until it’s far too late. Colombia could easily turn into jumbo Bulgaria or Romania demographically within decades. El Salvador in similar condition but much smaller country. Cuba in an emigration & low fertility spiral.
What Eastern Europe went through from 1990-2010 much of Latam seems doomed to repeat.
What Eastern Europe went through from 1990-2010 much of Latam seems doomed to repeat.
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Demographics Now and Then
Central Asian Gen Alpha to be larger than that of Russia despite having around half the population. Even if fertility rates continue to decline, Central Asia (TJ, KZ, UZ, KG, TM) likely to have brighter demographic future than most. Only mass emigration…
Turkmenistan has recently acknowledged that mass emigration is a major crisis and dramatically increased restrictions on emigration. But as such a high percentage of the Turkmen population has already left it may be a case of too little too late.
https://jamestown.org/turkmenistan-escalates-crackdown-on-citizens-looking-to-emigrate-abroad/
https://jamestown.org/turkmenistan-escalates-crackdown-on-citizens-looking-to-emigrate-abroad/
jamestown.org
Turkmenistan Escalates Crackdown on Citizens Looking to Emigrate Abroad - Jamestown
Executive Summary: Turkmen migrants are facing increased restrictions on their freedom of movement, with countries such as Türkiye and Russia assisting the Turkmen government in cracking down on Turkmen citizens outside the country. Ashgabat has made moving…
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The ultra religious in Israel are the ones driving Israeli Jewish TFR so far above Muslim & Christian TFR in the region. Ultra-Orthodox Haredi, while politically supporting Netanyahu’s coalition government and policy in the region, overwhelmingly refuse to serve in the military. The see the IDF as an aggressive secularizing force.
The spectacular increase in the percentage of Israel that will be Haredi in 2050, and the corresponding decline in the proportion of secular Israelis, will obviously have profound economic and national security implications for Israel.
The spectacular increase in the percentage of Israel that will be Haredi in 2050, and the corresponding decline in the proportion of secular Israelis, will obviously have profound economic and national security implications for Israel.
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Demographics Now and Then
Turkmenistan has recently acknowledged that mass emigration is a major crisis and dramatically increased restrictions on emigration. But as such a high percentage of the Turkmen population has already left it may be a case of too little too late. https…
As far back as 2018 & 2021 there were reports circulating that Turkmenistan’s population would be less than half its claimed 6.2M+ population. Turkmen leadership is likely amongst the worst in the region and world.
https://www.rferl.org/amp/turkmenistan-population-decline-exodus/31355045.html
https://www.rferl.org/amp/turkmenistan-population-decline-exodus/31355045.html
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~200,000 war brides & military spouses immigrated to the U.S. from East & Southeast Asia between 1945 & 1975. The specific number of spouses from 1947 to 1975 from Japan totaled 66,681, from Korea 28,205, from the Philippines 51,747, from Thailand 11,660, & from Vietnam 8,040.
Interesting piece of military & demographic history. If this sort of demographic/social history interests you then you may want to look at David Courtright’s “Violent Land: Single Men and Social Disorder from the Frontier to the Inner City” & similar books.
Interesting piece of military & demographic history. If this sort of demographic/social history interests you then you may want to look at David Courtright’s “Violent Land: Single Men and Social Disorder from the Frontier to the Inner City” & similar books.
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According to the UN the fertility rate of ultra impoverished South Sudan crashed from above 5.0 in 2014 to just ~3.85 less than a decade later (in 2023). Over the same period births plummeted from around 440,000 in 2014 to just ~330,000 in 2023. Demographic collapse is happening almost everywhere.
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Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning) is a real‑time experiment in demographic disintegration. Home to abandoned apartments, shuttered schools, collapsing local tax bases, hospitals consolidating/closing, & entire towns with just elderly, & losing 10% of population a decade.
The region lost ~1,000,000 people in 2024 alone with Heilongjiang losing 428,000, Liaoning 270,000, & Jilin 221,000.
https://www.visiontimes.com/2025/11/26/is-chinas-northeast-disappearing-ghost-cities-spread-as-housing-prices-collapse.html
The region lost ~1,000,000 people in 2024 alone with Heilongjiang losing 428,000, Liaoning 270,000, & Jilin 221,000.
https://www.visiontimes.com/2025/11/26/is-chinas-northeast-disappearing-ghost-cities-spread-as-housing-prices-collapse.html
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