While South Korea & Japan will continue to attract Asian immigrants Thailand in for more of a struggle. Conflict with Cambodia has severely disrupted labor flow & general relations, future migration flow of Burmese uncertain, & Laos just does not have that many migrants to give.

Honestly think most Burmese migrants will be choosing higher pay and better opportunities in South Korea & Japan by the 2030s. Laotians will mostly be staying put (small numbers anyways), & Cambodians will also overwhelmingly choose developed Asian economies for migration.

The enormous demand for labor in ultra low fertility Thailand may be largely unfulfilled by 2035, exactly when massive numbers of Thais from the gigantic 1963-1983 cohort (which saw 1M+ births a year) start leaving the labor market & workers are needed the most.

South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, & Singapore will also likely absorb an annual 250,000 Indonesian migrants collectively by 2030 (just as Indonesian fertility collapses). China will try and suck up labor where they can & automate at a ferocious pace as well.

At the height of the Southern European/Mediterranean economic crisis (when unemployment was almost 20%) fertility rate in Spain was ~1.3, in Italy was close to 1.4, Greece 1.3, & Portugal 1.2. Today Spain is on ~1.1, Italy 1.13, Greece 1.23, PT 1.4. Unemployment today is near an all time low.

The TFR of the SNIFD countries has similarly declined. Thus it seems clear that falling TFR in Europe is independent of the unemployment rate. Culture across the world has shifted decisively away from one in which people view having a family as an essential part of life.

Quite a few people think if South Korea were less conservative about out of wedlock births TFR would dramatically increase. As @andyd10 shows below,out of wedlock births more than doubled between 2019 and 2024 yet TFR went from 0.92 in 2019 to 0.75 in 2024. So don’t think so.

The average farmer in Malaysia is 60; in the Philippines 56. Taking South-East Asia as a whole, a third of all farm workers are 55 or older, up from less than a fifth a decade ago. As fertility rates crash & young move to cities the problem is growing.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2026/01/22/ageing-farmers-threaten-south-east-asias-growth

Population of India world’s largest & growing by 12-13 million people annually. India has more people than every country in sub Saharan Africa combined despite being less than 1/7th its size. India’s population will remain biggest on earth from here on out almost certainly.

Some of the most crowded Indian States & Union Territories are also those that will see the most population growth going forward. Particularly Delhi (22 million people & more than 12,000 per sq km), Bihar (127 million & 1,000+ per sq km), & Uttar Pradesh (240M & 900 per sq km).

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2015017659247517929

Hungarian births and fertility falling sharply. No comeback cohorts to turn things around either. Births will probably not ever go back above 100,000.

This is becoming an unmitigated disaster for Thailand. Almost 15% decline in births in January 2026 compared to the same month last year. If this trend holds Thai TFR will be ~0.75-0.80 in 2026, so at South Korean & Taiwanese levels (thus amongst the very lowest on earth). This despite being far far less wealthy or developed than either South Korea or Taiwan.

https://x.com/andyd10/status/2018396489349820920

Levels of immigration to Spain truly massive. Bear in mind every single year from 2022 to 2025 Spain witnessed natural decline in excess of 115,000 & a fertility rate that never exceeded 1.16. In just that period Spain increased its total population by 1.6 million people despite posting a natural decline of close to half a million.

https://x.com/datadicto_es/status/2017498331652542577

There are many inaccurate estimates of Germany’s Muslim population but this account (@ar_demografie) is one of the best out there regarding German demographics and its estimate of 9.5% of Germany being Muslim as of the end of 2025 is one of the most sound I’ve seen.


https://x.com/ar_demografie/status/2017658742465065230

U.S. labor force participation rate projected to drop from ~63% in 2025 to ~58% by 2030 as Boomers exit workforce.  This structural decline is driven entirely by demographics & employers will need to hire ~240,000 workers per month for the next 5 years just to replace retirees.

My account on X was hacked. Any messages from the Twitter/X account from 10AM EST today onward should be disregarded.

This TG account is unaffected.

Poor showing for PPLE likely result of young Thais seeing their vote does not matter as every party they vote for gets banned post election. Hard to see things getting dramatically worse as Thai youth already pushing TFR⬇️0.90 but they could give South Korea a run for its money.

Wouldn’t be surprised if this put many Millennial+Zoomer Thais further into doomer thinking about future. The banning of Future Forward & Move Forward parties (both heavily supported by young Thais) in 2020 & 2024 by the govt made many youth despondent, possibly impacting births.

Having children is obviously a sign of optimism. When politics & society rob youth of all hope for the future then having children will be the last thing on their mind. For its level of development Thai fertility rates are astoundingly low. This is why.

Having a median age at first birth below 26 in the United States today is outstanding. West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arkansas & many other States have TFRs between 1.6-1.75 & median maternal ages at first birth under 26. It’s not over yet. Not by a long shot.

https://x.com/charliesmirkley/status/2018412563877273969

The degree to which the global fertility decline is being underestimated in projections is astounding. China is already below 1.0 & Türkiye below 1.4.

The world will probably be below replacement before 2030 not ~2040 as shown in UN projections.

The world will very likely see peak human within the next 35 years.

The solution to the global demographic crisis will never be ever larger pronatalist cash handouts, tax incentives, or cheaper housing. The solution is giving those aged 22-35 hope for the future. Childbearing in the developed world today is a vote of confidence in tomorrow.

This helps explain why conservatives in the US have more children than liberals & why South Koreans, Taiwanese,& Thais have so few offspring. If young people don’t see themselves doing well (or at least doing better than their parents) their incentive to have kids diminishes.