🇬🇷👶Greece is on track for just 73,000 births this year. 2023 will see the lowest number of births ever recorded. The only demographic silver lining for Greece is that they have a comeback cohort born from 2006-2010 which gives them some time to develop better natalist policy.

Japan’s demographic crisis is hitting its plans to build a stronger military. The Japanese army, navy & air force have failed to reach recruitment targets for years, and the number of active personnel (~247,000) is nearly 10% lower than it was in 1990. https://t.co/Tbzaro09Wh

Japan is working to automate & reduce personnel needs as much as possible. For example, the Noshiro, a newly commissioned navy frigate show above, was designed with an understaffed force in mind & can function with ~2/3rds of the crew needed to operate a predecessor model.

But as the Japanese population rapidly ages and shrinks (nearly 1/3rd are ⬆️65, & births fell to a record low last year) experts worry that the military simply won’t be able to staff traditional fleets and squadrons.

The demographic challenges pose economic ones as well. There is strong public resistance to tax increases to fund the defense budget at a time of rising social costs for older people. https://t.co/1JMAqMBY0U

🌎🇪🇸🇷🇴👶Cultural change can be massive in either direction demographically. In 1975 (the last year of the Franco regime) there were 669,000 births. Last year 329,812 were born. In Romania in 1966 there were 273,678 births, in 1967 (due to decree 770) 527,764 were born. Much of the demographic destruction we see today is the direct result of policy changes leading to cultural changes. From Korea to Spain to Italy to Singapore this is clear for all to see.

🇪🇪👶Estonia birth update: From January-November 2023 Estonia has seen a decline in births of around 7.9%. They will almost certainly see the smallest number of births on record at sub 11,000. TFR will also fall to lowest low (~1.3) for the first time since 1998.

Looking at the five largest (by population) countries in the EU does not induce much confidence in their future (demographically, economically or otherwise). Italy, Spain have lowest low TFR (sub 1.3). Germany will likely have sub 1.4 this year, Poland also below lowest low TFR (~1.25) & France will probably be below 1.7.

All are heavily reliant on immigration which has plenty of pitfalls. The EU is doomed to irrelevance before 2040.

Simply incredible. Canada, New Zealand, & Australia adopting the same mass migration policies at the same time. This is not the cure all their respective policymakers are selling it as. The demand for more migrants to pay pensions for those retiring in 2050 will be epic.

Net-migration for the year ending June 2023:

USA ⬆️1,138,989
Canada ⬆️1,131,181
UK ⬆️672,000
Australia ⬆️518,087
NZ ⬆️101,518

Canada = absolute level of immigration as the US.

The State of Texas has seen Non Hispanic White births plummet. NHWs make up ~40% of the Texan population but only ~25% of births in 2022 according to CDC wonder and analysis by Global Demographics @nonebusinesshey. Truly astounding. NHW Texan TFR must be quite low.

In 2065 Israel is projected to have almost 20 million people. Of this number around 80.5% will be Jewish (40% of who are projected to be Ultra Orthodox Haredi with the remainder religious, secular+other) & 19.5% Arabs(~90% Muslim and 10% Christians+Druze).

One child families will never become the norm in the U.S. Zero child couples will become far more common. This is an even worse outcome obviously but hardly surprising given economic & social trends & policymakers intentional ignorance of the consequences.

Proportion of total births that were fourth or higher order for mothers in the US, by birth country, Jan-Oct 2023. Indian, Chinese, & Colombians have smaller families in the United States while Somali, Congolese, Afghan, Burmese & Laotians have huge families. The TFR for Indian and Chinese Americans is also quite low. Between 1.3-1.4.

My honest guess is ~20-25% of American women currently aged 25-44 will remain childless. The highest level ever. TFR will probably fall to sub 1.5. Still much higher than the East Asian average or that in Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland or Canada but no longer exceptional.

Know many people are saying this is no big deal & that US Treasury holders will take up the slack but I disagree. There are many risks. Also China, Saudi Arabia & others have not even exited our T-note market yet. As a country ages+has many bills more expensive debt suboptimal.

Also, as you can see on the table, of our remaining major foreign treasury security holders 2 are likely to drop off for security reasons (China as they want no Russia repeat+KSA due to 9/11 potential $1T suit) & 5 are aged & will have to dramatically up pension & medical spending in years ahead.