Massive fall in births in many countries with very large populations (above 100 million) has confounded UN projections. Philippines tried to limit births for years & after 2020 they finally plummeted off a cliff. Ditto Egypt & Mexico. All 20% or more below UN projected births.
https://x.com/annatar_i/status/1986369976119488597
https://x.com/annatar_i/status/1986369976119488597
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UN est of 132m births in 2025 is at least 3-4% overestimate, below are UN proj. births vs what actual births will be roughly in 2025 for many medium sized countries:
Egypt: 2.45m > 1.9m (-22%)
Mexico: 2m > 1.6m (-20%)
Philippines: 1.845m > 1.33m (-28%)
Iraq:…
Egypt: 2.45m > 1.9m (-22%)
Mexico: 2m > 1.6m (-20%)
Philippines: 1.845m > 1.33m (-28%)
Iraq:…
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Look at some of highest & lowest fertility districts of the UK in 2024. Highest (Luton, Braking & Dagenham & Slough) all had "White British/Irish" populations of ⬇️ 34%. Whereas some of the lowest TFR, Cambridge, Brighton & Hove, & York are 55, 75, & 88% "White British/Irish".
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All significant Chinese populations in Asia have a fertility rate at or below 1.10. China(1.3 billion plus ethnic Chinese) TFR ~1.0-1.1, Taiwan (~22 million ethnic Chinese)TFR ~0.75, Thailand (Thai Chinese population ~10 million) TFR ~0.95, Malaysia (Chinese ~6.5M) TFR ~0.70, Singapore Chinese (population ~3.5-4 million) TFR ~0.8.
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🇫🇷 👶 Births decline accelerating in last large European country with a fertility rate ⬆️ 1.5. While not falling as dramatically as most other countries they are on track to be on ~1.57 this year. Other large European countries UK (~1.4), Germany (~1.3), Spain & Italy (~1.13) much lower.
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Taiwan may be the 2nd most demographically cooked country on earth. The arrival of millions of mainlanders following nationalist defeat saw a brief explosion in the fertility rate & a massive cohort from the mid 1950s to mid 1960s then TFR dropped like a rock. Births were ~400,000 a year from 1955 to 1966, brief rally when those baby boomers had kids from 1978-1982, the 1990s saw ~330,000 births a year. Less than 261,000 births since 2001. Gen Alpha micro with just an average of under 200,000 births a year.
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🇧🇾 👶 Belarus has entered the early Moldovan stage of their demographic death spiral. Emigration growing at an alarming rate, TFR ultra low at ~1.10, & natural decline sky high. Will be lucky if they are above 8 million by 2050. Births likely to not hit 100,000 again this century.
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Retirements are set to continue soaring in the United States(& indeed everywhere in the developed world). By 2030 there is projected to be around 4.75M retirements as only ~3.25M enter the labor force. If immigration policy remains restrictive there’ll also be fast wage growth.
These are the retirements of US born baby boomers as well as boomers who immigrated to the US. The immigration boom since 1965 brought in ~10 million baby boomers from the 1970s-1990s. They are also retiring between now to the 2030s.
These are the retirements of US born baby boomers as well as boomers who immigrated to the US. The immigration boom since 1965 brought in ~10 million baby boomers from the 1970s-1990s. They are also retiring between now to the 2030s.
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According to UN, births across Europe were ~12.2 million in 1950. Births may fall to half that or~6.1 million in 2025. Last year UN put European births at 6,345,922. Unclear what % of 2024 births to citizens vs immigrants but almost certainly a far higher share than in 1950.
The labor shortfalls that Europe & developed East Asia will be facing entering the 2030s and throughout the 2040s will be unprecedented in global history. AI promises a lot but so far looks like it’s better at replacing mid-high end jobs than low skilled ones. That’s not great.
I’ve seen the agricultural robots & if those as well as construction, hospitality, and logistics robots take huge leaps forward in capability by 2030 so of course much low skilled immigrant jobs should be AI replaceable. Thus immigration demand would soften considerably.
The countries with the largest projected shortfalls are Taiwan, Germany, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Spain, & China.
The labor shortfalls that Europe & developed East Asia will be facing entering the 2030s and throughout the 2040s will be unprecedented in global history. AI promises a lot but so far looks like it’s better at replacing mid-high end jobs than low skilled ones. That’s not great.
I’ve seen the agricultural robots & if those as well as construction, hospitality, and logistics robots take huge leaps forward in capability by 2030 so of course much low skilled immigrant jobs should be AI replaceable. Thus immigration demand would soften considerably.
The countries with the largest projected shortfalls are Taiwan, Germany, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Spain, & China.
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The US is forecast to see more deaths than births (aka enter natural decline) by 2033. This is also based on a middle of the road scenario where we don’t see a crash in the US fertility rate.
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Buenos Aires province~40% of Argentina’s population. As it collapses so does the demographics of Argentina. To compare Seoul ~21% of South Korea’s population & greater Seoul is 50%. Huge greater capital regions apocalyptic TFR destroys national TFR (though Busan worst in ROK).
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One of many consequences of the Thailand Cambodian border conflict reigniting is the likely prolonged displacement of ~900,000 Cambodian migrants from Thailand to Cambodia. Any losses from this labor force would likely be made up by more Burmese migrants.
https://kiripost.com/stories/nearly-72-of-returning-migrant-workers-remain-unemployed-report-finds
https://kiripost.com/stories/nearly-72-of-returning-migrant-workers-remain-unemployed-report-finds
Kiripost
72% of Surveyed Returning Migrant Workers in Siem Reap Still Jobless After Thailand Conflict
A Plan International Cambodia report reveals that 72 percent of migrant workers it surveyed in Siem Reap province who returned from Thailand during the first wave of fighting in July remain out of work, with the majority also reporting mental health issues…
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IFS survey clearly shows conservatives aged 25-35 are FAR more likely to be parents than liberal peers. It also shows an increase in liberalism amongst women in that young age range. But only ~36% not majority. So even if liberal TFR falls to 1.0 hardly demographic armageddon.
It seems that you get the most juice for your pro natalist squeeze convincing those with 2+ kids to have another than you get convincing a couple with none to have one. If the U.S. adopts more robust pro natal strategies perhaps that should be taken into account.
BUT given the recent (a joke here as it’s past 25 years) government spending largesse eventually there will be market pushback to mass spending & any pro natalist initiatives put forward by an outgoing administration will likely be the first to go in a new one dedicated to cuts.
Also who knows how much pro natalist spending actually helps (based on my observations not a whole lot). The problem is cultural & any solution will be as well.
It seems that you get the most juice for your pro natalist squeeze convincing those with 2+ kids to have another than you get convincing a couple with none to have one. If the U.S. adopts more robust pro natal strategies perhaps that should be taken into account.
BUT given the recent (a joke here as it’s past 25 years) government spending largesse eventually there will be market pushback to mass spending & any pro natalist initiatives put forward by an outgoing administration will likely be the first to go in a new one dedicated to cuts.
Also who knows how much pro natalist spending actually helps (based on my observations not a whole lot). The problem is cultural & any solution will be as well.
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