Demographics ensure truly massive cohorts will be retiring in China, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Poland, Thailand, Spain, France, the UK & the US. This will lead to historically tight labor markets in almost all developed economies. Wages & job prospects will likely ⬆️.

Massive levels of recent U.S. immigration (by US not Canadian standards) have made the new Census Bureau population projections, published on November 9 2023, obsolete already. CPS had projected the US foreign-born population share wouldn’t hit 15% until 2033. It hit that level in 2023. https://t.co/D8ehWgrJIm

In October 2023, CPS showed that 15% of the U.S. population is now foreign-born, higher than any U.S. government survey or census has ever recorded. Since Biden took office the foreign-born population has grown by 4.5M,larger than the individual populations of 25 U.S. states.

The 4.5 million foreign born increase overall & the 2.5 million increase in undocumented immigrants are both net figures. The number of new arrivals was significantly higher, but was offset by outmigration & natural mortality among the foreign-born already in the United States.

The 49.5 million foreign-born residents (legal & undocumented) in October 2023 is also a new record high. Immigrants from all of Latin America increased by 2.9 million since January 2021, accounting for 63 percent of the total increase in the foreign-born. African & Caribbean arrivals ⬆️ as well.

🇵🇭👶The TFR in metropolitan Manila (capitol of the Philippines and 6th largest populated urban area in the world at 26 million people) has fallen to just 1.4. This has dragged national TFR to sub 1.8. This is the trend in every developing country. First the urban areas become gigantic. Next TFR crashes there. More & more people move to these urban centers as that is where the jobs are. Then national TFR plummets as there are few high TFR rural areas.

🇬🇷👶Greece is on track for just 73,000 births this year. 2023 will see the lowest number of births ever recorded. The only demographic silver lining for Greece is that they have a comeback cohort born from 2006-2010 which gives them some time to develop better natalist policy.

Japan’s demographic crisis is hitting its plans to build a stronger military. The Japanese army, navy & air force have failed to reach recruitment targets for years, and the number of active personnel (~247,000) is nearly 10% lower than it was in 1990. https://t.co/Tbzaro09Wh

Japan is working to automate & reduce personnel needs as much as possible. For example, the Noshiro, a newly commissioned navy frigate show above, was designed with an understaffed force in mind & can function with ~2/3rds of the crew needed to operate a predecessor model.

But as the Japanese population rapidly ages and shrinks (nearly 1/3rd are ⬆️65, & births fell to a record low last year) experts worry that the military simply won’t be able to staff traditional fleets and squadrons.

The demographic challenges pose economic ones as well. There is strong public resistance to tax increases to fund the defense budget at a time of rising social costs for older people. https://t.co/1JMAqMBY0U

🌎🇪🇸🇷🇴👶Cultural change can be massive in either direction demographically. In 1975 (the last year of the Franco regime) there were 669,000 births. Last year 329,812 were born. In Romania in 1966 there were 273,678 births, in 1967 (due to decree 770) 527,764 were born. Much of the demographic destruction we see today is the direct result of policy changes leading to cultural changes. From Korea to Spain to Italy to Singapore this is clear for all to see.

🇪🇪👶Estonia birth update: From January-November 2023 Estonia has seen a decline in births of around 7.9%. They will almost certainly see the smallest number of births on record at sub 11,000. TFR will also fall to lowest low (~1.3) for the first time since 1998.

Looking at the five largest (by population) countries in the EU does not induce much confidence in their future (demographically, economically or otherwise). Italy, Spain have lowest low TFR (sub 1.3). Germany will likely have sub 1.4 this year, Poland also below lowest low TFR (~1.25) & France will probably be below 1.7.

All are heavily reliant on immigration which has plenty of pitfalls. The EU is doomed to irrelevance before 2040.

Simply incredible. Canada, New Zealand, & Australia adopting the same mass migration policies at the same time. This is not the cure all their respective policymakers are selling it as. The demand for more migrants to pay pensions for those retiring in 2050 will be epic.

Net-migration for the year ending June 2023:

USA ⬆️1,138,989
Canada ⬆️1,131,181
UK ⬆️672,000
Australia ⬆️518,087
NZ ⬆️101,518

Canada = absolute level of immigration as the US.

The State of Texas has seen Non Hispanic White births plummet. NHWs make up ~40% of the Texan population but only ~25% of births in 2022 according to CDC wonder and analysis by Global Demographics @nonebusinesshey. Truly astounding. NHW Texan TFR must be quite low.