Demographics Now and Then
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The Canary Islands, with a significant population of more than 2.1 million people, now has a fertility rate as low as Taiwan & lower than Singapore. While Spain as a whole probably won’t fall below 1.0 TFR, entire regions may go into a fertility death spiral like the Canaries.
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This was Britain in 1973. Common to hear people say children come first. From 1953-1972 TFR was above 2.20(in some years well above). Completely different culture now. Partially as a result this year TFR in United Kingdom is projected to fall below 1.5 for the first time ever.
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Comparing Moroccan & Algerian fertility trends is interesting. Algeria was able to get TFR back above 3.0 in the 2010s after falling to 2.4 in 2000 (it then fell to 2.7 in 2021). Morocco on the other hand saw TFR fall from 2.5+in 2000 to 2.1 in 2013 to 1.87 in 2020 before rebounding to 2.33 in 2021.
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China is ready for the world of automation that’s coming. The rest of the world is incredibly far behind. China has deep demographic problems yes but automation will help them mitigate its effects enormously. America & Europe need to step up their game…
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👶🇦🇺 Terrible news from our Aussie brethren. Births in Australia are⬇️4.64% for the first half of 2023 with~7K ⬇️births than the same time last year. Net immigration hit 518,000 in the year ending June 2023. TFR in Australia dangerously close to 1.5 if these bad numbers hold up for the rest of the year. The Anglosphere demographic decline continues apace. Australia becoming Canada sadly.
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Between 1954-1990 the Soviet Union recorded 258,723,655 (216M legal) abortions. To put this massive number in perspective the population of the USSR was 286,730,819 at the time of the last Soviet Census in 1989. This compares ~25-30 million abortions in the USA during the same period.
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Demographics ensure truly massive cohorts will be retiring in China, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Poland, Thailand, Spain, France, the UK & the US. This will lead to historically tight labor markets in almost all developed economies. Wages & job prospects will likely ⬆️.
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Massive levels of recent U.S. immigration (by US not Canadian standards) have made the new Census Bureau population projections, published on November 9 2023, obsolete already. CPS had projected the US foreign-born population share wouldn’t hit 15% until 2033. It hit that level in 2023. https://t.co/D8ehWgrJIm
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Demographics Now and Then
Massive levels of recent U.S. immigration (by US not Canadian standards) have made the new Census Bureau population projections, published on November 9 2023, obsolete already. CPS had projected the US foreign-born population share wouldn’t hit 15% until 2033.…
In October 2023, CPS showed that 15% of the U.S. population is now foreign-born, higher than any U.S. government survey or census has ever recorded. Since Biden took office the foreign-born population has grown by 4.5M,larger than the individual populations of 25 U.S. states.
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Demographics Now and Then
In October 2023, CPS showed that 15% of the U.S. population is now foreign-born, higher than any U.S. government survey or census has ever recorded. Since Biden took office the foreign-born population has grown by 4.5M,larger than the individual populations…
The 4.5 million foreign born increase overall & the 2.5 million increase in undocumented immigrants are both net figures. The number of new arrivals was significantly higher, but was offset by outmigration & natural mortality among the foreign-born already in the United States.
Demographics Now and Then
The 4.5 million foreign born increase overall & the 2.5 million increase in undocumented immigrants are both net figures. The number of new arrivals was significantly higher, but was offset by outmigration & natural mortality among the foreign-born already…
The 49.5 million foreign-born residents (legal & undocumented) in October 2023 is also a new record high. Immigrants from all of Latin America increased by 2.9 million since January 2021, accounting for 63 percent of the total increase in the foreign-born. African & Caribbean arrivals ⬆️ as well.
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🇵🇭👶The TFR in metropolitan Manila (capitol of the Philippines and 6th largest populated urban area in the world at 26 million people) has fallen to just 1.4. This has dragged national TFR to sub 1.8. This is the trend in every developing country. First the urban areas become gigantic. Next TFR crashes there. More & more people move to these urban centers as that is where the jobs are. Then national TFR plummets as there are few high TFR rural areas.
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Getting old before getting rich is becoming the global norm. Look at the Philippines (⬇️1.8 TFR with per capita PPP GDP of $11,500), Nepal(now ~2.0 TFR with per capita PPP GDP of $5,500), Sri Lanka (⬇️1.7 TFR with per capita PPP GDP of $14,000),& Thailand(TFR ~1 with PPP GDP of $22.4K).
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🇬🇷👶Greece is on track for just 73,000 births this year. 2023 will see the lowest number of births ever recorded. The only demographic silver lining for Greece is that they have a comeback cohort born from 2006-2010 which gives them some time to develop better natalist policy.
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Japan’s demographic crisis is hitting its plans to build a stronger military. The Japanese army, navy & air force have failed to reach recruitment targets for years, and the number of active personnel (~247,000) is nearly 10% lower than it was in 1990. https://t.co/Tbzaro09Wh