If 50-60% of the 4,238,010 Ukrainians living in the EU as of October 2023 never return to Ukraine the latter will be demographically devastated. The gender imbalance of having up to a million and a half women not return would simply be too large to overcome in all likelihood.

There’s a myth of high Muslim TFR in Russia & particularly in the Kavkaz area. As this map shows, Chechnya (population only~1.5M) is the only one with high TFR+the only one above replacement. Even Ingushetia+Dagestan are far below. Biggest Muslims groups (Tatar+Bashkirs) much lower. While Chechen, Ingush, Avar etc fertility is higher than for ethnic Russians these groups have very small populations and (as mentioned above) only Chechens above replacement. Slavic Orthodox Christians unlikely to ever be below 75% of the Russian population.

Interesting chart. With just early 2020s level immigration the US population would get to 404M by 2060. If immigration were cut BY HALF from those numbers we would still get to ~355M before leveling off & falling to 354M by 2060. Mass migration could conceivably push to 450M. Most policymakers in Congress & related think tanks find the 450 million U.S. future most appealing. This is because they believe this is the only way to continue paying for entitlement programs without cuts. Many also believe that being a country of 450M vs one of 404M makes the country far more powerful.

It remains to be seen whether or not there will be an sober & honest debate about which path the US should follow. There are clear arguments for an America of 354M one of 404M & one of 450M. American deserve more say in what path we ultimately choose not elites choosing for them. Mass immigration would have major consequences and could cause even larger pension & other problems down the road.

👶🇫🇷 France, the last bastion of semi “high” fertility in Europe (above 1.8 fertility rate from 2000-2019) is starting to collapse. TFR could fall below 1.7 this year (after falling to ~1.75 in 2022) to the lowest level in two decades. This may also be just the beginning.

The Canary Islands, with a significant population of more than 2.1 million people, now has a fertility rate as low as Taiwan & lower than Singapore. While Spain as a whole probably won’t fall below 1.0 TFR, entire regions may go into a fertility death spiral like the Canaries.

Between 1954-1990 the Soviet Union recorded 258,723,655 (216M legal) abortions. To put this massive number in perspective the population of the USSR was 286,730,819 at the time of the last Soviet Census in 1989. This compares ~25-30 million abortions in the USA during the same period.

Demographics ensure truly massive cohorts will be retiring in China, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Poland, Thailand, Spain, France, the UK & the US. This will lead to historically tight labor markets in almost all developed economies. Wages & job prospects will likely ⬆️.

Massive levels of recent U.S. immigration (by US not Canadian standards) have made the new Census Bureau population projections, published on November 9 2023, obsolete already. CPS had projected the US foreign-born population share wouldn’t hit 15% until 2033. It hit that level in 2023. https://t.co/D8ehWgrJIm

In October 2023, CPS showed that 15% of the U.S. population is now foreign-born, higher than any U.S. government survey or census has ever recorded. Since Biden took office the foreign-born population has grown by 4.5M,larger than the individual populations of 25 U.S. states.

The 4.5 million foreign born increase overall & the 2.5 million increase in undocumented immigrants are both net figures. The number of new arrivals was significantly higher, but was offset by outmigration & natural mortality among the foreign-born already in the United States.

The 49.5 million foreign-born residents (legal & undocumented) in October 2023 is also a new record high. Immigrants from all of Latin America increased by 2.9 million since January 2021, accounting for 63 percent of the total increase in the foreign-born. African & Caribbean arrivals ⬆️ as well.