The demographic situation from Argentina to Brazil to Colombia to Chile to Ecuador to Peru to Uruguay is shockingly suboptimal. The impact on the global economy in the decades to come is going to be absolutely colossal.

Simply don’t believe there is an AI or immigration solution for all these countries. There will be no conceivable way to fix the shortfall in the labor force absent a revival in the birth rate. Such a revival really is the only way.

It is kind of crazy that the only ethnic Chinese populations to get a noticeable boost from the Dragon Year so far were those in Malaysia (~5% jump in births) & Hong Kong (~7.5% but from a very bad 2023). Too early to tell for the PRC.

Venezuela is demographically becoming the Ukraine (or Syria) of Latin America. ~6 million people have left the country over the past decade. That’s more than 20% of the population. Hard to bounce back from that, especially when the fertility rate is falling at the same time.

Chile is an ultra-low fertility outlier (likely to be below 1.0 TFR in 2024). According to INE: 60% of the population identifies as Christian (45% Catholic+15% Protestant) & only ~20% of Chileans live in apartments with many others living in houses or other more spacious than apartment dwellings.

Like Hungary & Poland what is likely at play here is a huge generational gap in values & beliefs. Chileans aged 45 plus likely very religious while those 30 & below likely much less so. Also younger Chileans may be more likely to live in urban areas.

But what is surprising is that there appears to be no very high fertility Catholic or Protestant outliers amongst the young. One would think at least 10-20% of women age 40 and below would have high TFR.

Thailand is in real trouble. They’re heavily service sector oriented+have a TFR of~1.0. Most significant decrease in their workforce projected to take place during 2030s & 2040s. Main source countries for foreign labor are Myanmar & Cambodia,both likely sub replacement by 2030.

The Philippines is incredibly significant (with a population above 100 million & huge emigration). Government of the Philippines must create more conducive environment to get their people to stay immediately. With sub 1.5 TFR and high emigration population decline by 2050 certain.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1862887661897179600

With this latest information, it seems that the Philippines may follow just north of the lower 80% prediction interval track,with population peaking between 120-130 million by 2050 then falling well below 100 million by 2100. Filipino sailors may become a scarce labor commodity.

🇨🇳 According to the United Nations in a BEST case scenario, China’s population falls 400,000,000+ by 2100. Worst case scenario it falls by 1 billion. Absolutely colossal economic changes inbound. Natural resource exporting countries need to diversify as quickly as they can.

Chinese energy, other natural resource, & import needs will fall sharply in the 2040s & 2050s. China’s population has already peaked & is in both natural & absolute decline. By 2030s natural decline will increase to up to 6 million annually. By 2040s up to 10 million annually.

The profound drops in working age populations in China, Italy, Japan, Russia, Germany, & Spain may very well cause a global fiscal crisis. Unlikely a top heavy population will vote for cuts to their pensions & other benefits. Of developed world U.S. and Australia in best shape.

The fertility rate of the United States has never sunk below 1.6. That is higher than almost any fertility rate in Europe or East Asia besides France & much countries like Bulgaria & Montenegro.

Jamaica is demographically doomed. Very very hard to see a rebound in time. Likely sub 2M before 2060. It is an emigration nation, has tanking TFR (like almost all of the Caribbean), crime a problem, & there is basically nothing being done to turn things around on the island.

Thailand seems to be following the lower 80% prediction interval on births at present.  Births in 2024 on track to be sub 500,000.  If this track continues expect births to fall below 400,000 by 2040. Will have knock on effects on neighbors as many immigrate to Thailand from Burma/Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos etc.

Really like this map showing biggest 5 year generational cohorts in each country (even though it made some mistakes with China & a few other places). It shows what is economically in store for us in coming years. Europe burns out first, then East Asia, then Brazil, US+India.

The 2030s will be the decade where several major European & East Asian economies see 20% or more of their population being age 70 and above. In 2030 Italy hits this milestone, in 2033 Germany, 2034 South Korea & Spain, & in 2035 France & Taiwan. Over 90% of 70+ retired.

The age 60 plus voting bloc will be a clear majority of the electorate in most of these countries. Will be hard to have natalism, a push for new infrastructure, a push for more defense spending, & pension & healthcare remain untouched all at the same time.

Unlike the U.S. and Australia Europe and East Asia do not have a large Generation Z. That is their downfall. They will put more and more of a tax burden on a smaller and smaller population. This is not sustainable. Lots for other countries to learn from this.