In the United States the cumulative decline in births among women under age 35 is equivalent to 550 fewer lifetime births per 1,000 women,whereas the increase among women ages 35 & up is equivalent to 50 additional lifetime births per 1,000 women. That’s the crisis we face today.

🇹🇭👶Thailand has now reported births for the first three quarters of 2024. Births are down ~11%. It’s basically a given Thailand will have sub 1.0 TFR now. The country is so large (66M people) that the demographic crisis will impact all its neighbors. https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMONTH/statmonth/#/mainpage

TFR for US Non Hispanic Whites (NHWs) stabilizing around 1.53. There is huge divergence within NHWs based on political affiliation. NHW conservatives likely ~1.7/8 while NHW liberals likely ~1.2/3.

🇨🇳👶 Aggressive pronatalism is now Chinese policy & its enforcement is the purview of government family planning associations, the same bodies that once enforced the one-child policy. Now, however, they are working to promote the official “new fertility culture”.

The resources devoted to this effort have truly been significant. For example, in Miyun, a district of Beijing with ~500,000 residents, local family planning officials have set up a 500 person propaganda team to promote pro natalism & the three child ideal.

Now to be sure this Chinese pro natalist interventionism is far less than that during the one child policy & much of it consists of spreading the governments pronatalist message & informing women of many free pregnancy & child care resources now offered by the state.

However, I have many doubts as to the effectiveness of such an approach. Will it hurt? Unlikely. Will people start having 2-3 kids now that the government constantly messages that this is their social duty & provides lots of help to pregnant women+mothers? Almost certainly not.

https://t.co/gzYCBP7AWz

Currently in the United States around 2.6 million baby boomers die annually. This number will rise to 4 million annually by 2037. That generations passing will completely change the political, social, and religious landscape. One cannot underestimate the scale of this change.

While the UN estimates are roughly correct that the population of South America will top out at ~470 million by 2050, the drop after that point will be much more dramatic. Based on current plummeting TFR trends we’re seeing from Colombia to Chile it’s likely the total pop will be well below 325M by 2100.

🇸🇪👶If births from January to August are any guide (down ~1.6%)Swedish births will fall below 100,000 this year for the first time in more than two decades. TFR falling across all groups including immigrants. National TFR to stay below 1.45 (for comparison it was 1.85 in 2016).

TFR for ethnic Swedes could hit as low as sub 1.40 this year. Ethnic Swedish births will also make up less than 70% of births in 2024. More than two thirds of Swedish population growth now driven by immigration. Sweden will look profoundly different come 2050.

The Caribbean is underreported but is entering a demographic doom loop. Things will be far worse than UN projections. Populations will peak earlier & lower (well before 2050). Biggest countries (Cuba, Jamaica, the DR) all far below replacement TFR with huge emigration levels.

If high emigration and very low TFR trends continue (Jamaica, Cuba are on sub 1.4 & some nations in the region are even lower) we can expect the population of the Caribbean to fall by almost half by 2100 to ~25M people.

This graphic shows the rapid aging of countries around the world and does an excellent job illustrating where we will be in 2050. Very few young populations will remain. India, Pakistan & Indonesia will be well into their demographic dividend. China+East Asia, as well as all of Europe+Canada aged.

China is aging incredibly rapidly. This is mainly due to disastrous past demographic policy combined with the wholesale adoption of consumerism and materialism. By 2050 they have a median age far higher than even the U.S. (the individualist, consumerist, materialist capital of the world).

Also think things will be a bit worse for the U.S. and UK in terms of aging than the table suggests. But it does illustrate the power of demographics (particularly bad demographics) well.

🇬🇹👶 Guatemala potentially going significantly below replacement in 2024 is an incredible piece of news. Guatemala is poor, heavily indigenous (important as the Mayan community has traditionally been pro children), & has high emigration. Demographic disaster if emigration not curbed.

Simply incredible. TFR in England & Wales (combined population 60 million) now just 1.44. This was a place where just a decade ago TFR was over 1.8.

Childlessness among youngest Millennials and Gen Z British women likely to be above 20%. TFR could fall as low as 1.2.

Total European background/White births in England 66.8%, Indian subcontinent background at least 11.9%, Black (African and Caribbean) ~6.5%.