🇬🇧🛄🏘In 2023 the UK saw 250,000 immigrants from India, 141,000 from Nigeria, 90,000 from China, & 83,000 from Pakistan. These were amongst the 685,000 net migrant arrivals last year. House prices and fertility may soon adopt a truly Canadian trajectory…

Housing cannot be built at the levels required. UK culture at present also places little prestige on childbearing. Remember that Canadian TFR is sub 1.3 & UK TFR (at sub 1.45 last year) could easily get to that point.
https://t.co/iQYAMjSDFZ

🇲🇳👶Mongolia has seen births ⬇️ 12.3% in the January-July 2024 reporting period. This fall could drive TFR ⬇️ 2.4 for the first time in over 15 years. Mongolia wont hit 5M people unless they achieve another substantial multi year demographic rally. Huge country few people.

🇭🇺👶Regret to inform you that births in Hungary have plummeted still further in July. Births are now down more than 10% in the January to July 2024 reporting period. The fertility rate is likely to fall below 1.4 in 2024 if this trend continues. https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok/#/en/list/nep

Austrian births in 1st half of 2024 have taken a turn for the worst. Births now ⬇️ ~1% compared to an⬆️in births of 1.3% recorded during the first quarter. Now instead of a small TFR increase to 1.33, expect it to be stuck at 1.32. Expect ethnic Austrian TFR to be lower still.

Tough blows for Ukraine, a country of sub 40M people. 52,562 named deaths since February 2022. Average age 37.9. Most deaths are those in mid 20s to early 50s. Probable death toll likely well above 100,000. Russian toll very high as well (especially amongst those from DNR/LNR areas).

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿👶The total number of babies born in Scotland last year was the lowest since 1855 according to National Records of Scotland (NRS). There were 17,510 more deaths than births in 2023. There were also only 26,753 marriages in Scotland, an 11% decrease on 2022.

https://t.co/VNkohlEJ8v

Births are absolutely cratering in the Basque Country of Spain. To put into perspective how bad things are births there have fallen almost 80% since 1976. In addition, a third of children there are born to foreign mothers.

🇵🇱Poland’s population has been in natural decline for decades. It’s on track to have one of the world’s lowest fertility rates this year. Despite this Poland is seeing its population grow, due entirely to immigration (especially from Ukraine & Belarus).

Ukraine & Belarus themselves have a fertility rate around the same low level as Poland. So the loss of so many thousands of young people is catastrophic. While this influx of younger people may be good for Poland near term it will hobble these two neighbors if it continues.

On a positive note Poland has seen many of its emigrants return. As many as 150,000 have returned from the UK back to Poland in recent years alone. Attracting back emigrants should be a major focus of countries across Eastern Europe.

https://t.co/g29eLs2His

Hong Kong (which has a larger total population than Singapore, Paraguay or Bulgaria) saw just over 33K births in 2023. While it marked a significant improvement on 2022 births it was still less than a third of the 100K+ births seen from 1958-1965. 2023 TFR was~0.75.

The result of this transformation will be the gradual supplanting of native Hong Kongers with mainland arrivals. This will speed the eradication of HK’s unique cultural+political differences & will make future challenges to PRC rule from such groups diminish considerably.

However, this year HK has seen a considerable Dragon Year boost with births up 6%+ in the first half of this year. Sadly this only increases the fertility rate to around 0.85. So the current resident population of HK is still on course to more than halve.

Also next year births will probably fall back & TFR could go below 0.80 again. As with Macao (which has an even worse TFR of around 0.50) the demographic future for the current residents seems to be a precarious one.

🇹🇭👶Thailand is on track to fall below 500,000 births for the first time in its recorded history. Births down more than 11% in the first eight months of 2024. TFR is likely to be below 1.0. Note: Thailand had more than 1M births every year from 1963 to 1983.

As I’ve said Africa is far from exempt from the demographic crisis. African fertility falling fast. It will likely not level off at a 2.5 TFR average as many seem to think. TFR projected to fall to just 3.8 across Africa by 2030 & SSA may peak by 2060.

Personally think TFR will average as low as 3.5 across Africa by 2030 & 2.5 by 2040. By 2060-2070 Africa will hit a peak population of below 2.5B. Africa will never hit 3B let alone the crazy projections of 4B.

https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_african_fertility_is_falling

Israel’s future is Haredi & religious. The Haredi population may grow from almost 14% today to as much as 42%. Religious & Traditional Religious groups in Israel also have TFR well above replacement. Only secular Israelis below. They may fall from ~50% to less than 35%.

This is what happens when your a country with the population of California & you let in 470,000 new permanent residents per year but don’t have nearly enough housing. Surprised it’s not even lower considering it is coupled with an antinatalist individualist/consumerist culture.

Canada is a demographic basket case. They keep making housing scarcer which makes family formation harder.

🇲🇽👶Mexico (with a fertility rate of~1.5) is now well below Brazilian TFR. For a country with more than 100M people (& the country with the second largest population in Latin America) the implications of this fertility collapse are huge. Births have plummeted far below 1.9M a year. In addition, emigration will continue to hollow out the country.

Yep, TFR in Utah now lower than Non Hispanic White TFR in North Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, & Mississippi. End of Mormon magic. No US State with a population 3M+ has NHW TFR above 1.75. California’s NHW TFR is lower than that of Germany. Massachusetts’ is lower than that of Italy…

U.S. NHW TFR is becoming rapidly European (& reaching East Asian levels amongst liberal NHWs) in some places. The U.S., Australia, UK used to be demographic outliers in that regard a decade plus ago. No longer. Only solution is to make motherhood prestigious. This will help make three and four child families sought after.

🇮🇹👶Italy sees significant June decline in births. # of births during the 1st half of 2024 is down 1.44% compared to the 1st half of 2023. For comparison births in the first 5 months of 2024 were only down 0.7%. TFR on track to = all time low of 1995 (1.19).

Due to its rapidly aging population and low fertility rate the European Union’s Economy has a good chance of being the same size in 2050 as it is today. Demographic decline has enormous consequences.

https://t.co/XBw6JgQZVY

In the United States the cumulative decline in births among women under age 35 is equivalent to 550 fewer lifetime births per 1,000 women,whereas the increase among women ages 35 & up is equivalent to 50 additional lifetime births per 1,000 women. That’s the crisis we face today.

🇹🇭👶Thailand has now reported births for the first three quarters of 2024. Births are down ~11%. It’s basically a given Thailand will have sub 1.0 TFR now. The country is so large (66M people) that the demographic crisis will impact all its neighbors. https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMONTH/statmonth/#/mainpage

TFR for US Non Hispanic Whites (NHWs) stabilizing around 1.53. There is huge divergence within NHWs based on political affiliation. NHW conservatives likely ~1.7/8 while NHW liberals likely ~1.2/3.