The comeback of the titular ethnic group of Kazakhstan since 1989 has truly been nothing short of remarkable. In 1989 ethnic Kazakhs were only 39.7% of the population (down from 82% in 1897), by 1999 they were an ethnic majority again. Today (2024 estimates) Kazakhs are 71%.

This just proves that no matter how dire the strait or how dark the hour a nation can come back from oblivion. Latvia & Lithuania did too as have others. One should never just give in and say a nation’s people have no say in the national destiny. Lots can be reversed.

Doomers insist many countries are “done”due to immigration & low native TFR & claim titular nation will no longer be the majority. Things are rarely permanently settled like this. Peoples have a say & eventually can influence policy. Most nowhere near Balts or KZ were in 1989.

Yes without immigration & without a TFR of ~2.1 population will decline but that is a choice for the people’s of each country to make. Also levels of immigration needed to keep population pyramids steady at dependence ratio of today are far too high for many societies to handle.

https://x.com/masagget/status/1782486417978859898

Halting emigration should be joint priority right next to boosting births. If your young people leave in droves you are ultimately doomed as a country. Belarus, North Macedonia,Tunisia, & many others must fight hard to avoid becoming Bulgaria or Romania. Emptying & vulnerable.

By the way the estimate in the image is far too optimistic for many of the countries listed IMHO.

Want to triple down on this. The population of Sub Saharan Africa will follow the lowest line on this projection. The SSA total will likely peak in the 2080s or before at ~2.35B before declining to 2.25B by 2100. So population density will be far far below India or China.

🇹🇼👶Taiwanese births are actually extending their decline in the middle of the Dragon Year. Births are now ⬇️3.41% from January to July compared to the same time last year. More than 2,600 fewer births in total. TFR headed for possible lowest ever sub 0.85.

🇱🇹👶For the first time in its history births in Lithuania are on track to be below 20,000 annually. In 1961 the # of births was more than 3X at almost 63,000. Births in the January to July reporting period are down almost 10% against the same time last year. TFR on track to be well below 1.1.

Interesting findings. In Japan (which has one of the highest East Asian TFRs at ~1.2) only 13% of people feel women have an obligation to society to bear children while in South Korea (which has the worlds lowest fertility rate of 0.72) 29% express that opinion.

Find the Christian South Korean 303 Project interesting. It proposes creating a core of Korean Christian believers with many children being among the primary goals. If this led to a small breeder cult it would be a huge success for them.

The 303 Project (303 프로젝트) wants its adherents to marry before age 30 & have at least three children. It seems similar to the so called Quiverfull movement (another Christian pro natalist initiative which urges the faithful to have as many children as possible).

https://t.co/KWx6jWdcPq

🇬🇧🛄🏘In 2023 the UK saw 250,000 immigrants from India, 141,000 from Nigeria, 90,000 from China, & 83,000 from Pakistan. These were amongst the 685,000 net migrant arrivals last year. House prices and fertility may soon adopt a truly Canadian trajectory…

Housing cannot be built at the levels required. UK culture at present also places little prestige on childbearing. Remember that Canadian TFR is sub 1.3 & UK TFR (at sub 1.45 last year) could easily get to that point.
https://t.co/iQYAMjSDFZ

🇲🇳👶Mongolia has seen births ⬇️ 12.3% in the January-July 2024 reporting period. This fall could drive TFR ⬇️ 2.4 for the first time in over 15 years. Mongolia wont hit 5M people unless they achieve another substantial multi year demographic rally. Huge country few people.

🇭🇺👶Regret to inform you that births in Hungary have plummeted still further in July. Births are now down more than 10% in the January to July 2024 reporting period. The fertility rate is likely to fall below 1.4 in 2024 if this trend continues. https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok/#/en/list/nep

Austrian births in 1st half of 2024 have taken a turn for the worst. Births now ⬇️ ~1% compared to an⬆️in births of 1.3% recorded during the first quarter. Now instead of a small TFR increase to 1.33, expect it to be stuck at 1.32. Expect ethnic Austrian TFR to be lower still.

Tough blows for Ukraine, a country of sub 40M people. 52,562 named deaths since February 2022. Average age 37.9. Most deaths are those in mid 20s to early 50s. Probable death toll likely well above 100,000. Russian toll very high as well (especially amongst those from DNR/LNR areas).

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿👶The total number of babies born in Scotland last year was the lowest since 1855 according to National Records of Scotland (NRS). There were 17,510 more deaths than births in 2023. There were also only 26,753 marriages in Scotland, an 11% decrease on 2022.

https://t.co/VNkohlEJ8v

Births are absolutely cratering in the Basque Country of Spain. To put into perspective how bad things are births there have fallen almost 80% since 1976. In addition, a third of children there are born to foreign mothers.

🇵🇱Poland’s population has been in natural decline for decades. It’s on track to have one of the world’s lowest fertility rates this year. Despite this Poland is seeing its population grow, due entirely to immigration (especially from Ukraine & Belarus).

Ukraine & Belarus themselves have a fertility rate around the same low level as Poland. So the loss of so many thousands of young people is catastrophic. While this influx of younger people may be good for Poland near term it will hobble these two neighbors if it continues.

On a positive note Poland has seen many of its emigrants return. As many as 150,000 have returned from the UK back to Poland in recent years alone. Attracting back emigrants should be a major focus of countries across Eastern Europe.

https://t.co/g29eLs2His

Hong Kong (which has a larger total population than Singapore, Paraguay or Bulgaria) saw just over 33K births in 2023. While it marked a significant improvement on 2022 births it was still less than a third of the 100K+ births seen from 1958-1965. 2023 TFR was~0.75.

The result of this transformation will be the gradual supplanting of native Hong Kongers with mainland arrivals. This will speed the eradication of HK’s unique cultural+political differences & will make future challenges to PRC rule from such groups diminish considerably.

However, this year HK has seen a considerable Dragon Year boost with births up 6%+ in the first half of this year. Sadly this only increases the fertility rate to around 0.85. So the current resident population of HK is still on course to more than halve.

Also next year births will probably fall back & TFR could go below 0.80 again. As with Macao (which has an even worse TFR of around 0.50) the demographic future for the current residents seems to be a precarious one.

🇹🇭👶Thailand is on track to fall below 500,000 births for the first time in its recorded history. Births down more than 11% in the first eight months of 2024. TFR is likely to be below 1.0. Note: Thailand had more than 1M births every year from 1963 to 1983.

As I’ve said Africa is far from exempt from the demographic crisis. African fertility falling fast. It will likely not level off at a 2.5 TFR average as many seem to think. TFR projected to fall to just 3.8 across Africa by 2030 & SSA may peak by 2060.

Personally think TFR will average as low as 3.5 across Africa by 2030 & 2.5 by 2040. By 2060-2070 Africa will hit a peak population of below 2.5B. Africa will never hit 3B let alone the crazy projections of 4B.

https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_african_fertility_is_falling