High rates of childlessness does not necessarily equal lower fertility rates. Eastern Europe had much lower rates of childlessness than Western Europe yet places like Ireland (with one of the highest rates of childlessness in Europe)have some of Europe’s highest fertility rates.

Unlike most of Europe (where some countries did not even enjoy any true postwar baby boom at all) the United States was blessed with not 1 but 2 baby boom sized cohorts. The 1st from 1946-1964. The 2nd Gen Z from 1997-2012 (lower TFR but huge # of births). There will almost certainly not be a third. While births may very well rebound to the 3.7-3.9 million range it is highly doubtful that America will have any more near decade long stretches of 4M plus births. If very lucky the US will keep TFR above 1.5. This is said not out of pessimism but rather out of recognition of the data.

Czechia births: The drop, which started in 2022,continues. Only 69,219 births were recorded from January to September 2023 against the same period last year. A stunning 11% year on year fall. After hitting just 101,299 in 2022, births in 2024 will be ⬇️100K for the 1st time since 2004. TFR is likely to fall below 1.45.

Many publications (such as The Economist) argue that mass immigration will fix such a population pyramid. I would argue that it does not “fix” anything. It just prolongs the (likely) inevitable. What it will do is eliminate the one thing making Japan unique. Being modern without being western.

Belarus has a double threat of high emigration since 2020 (up to 200K have emigrated over the past three years) & very low births (only 73,906 recorded in 2022). Recent policies to restrict emigration are thus seen as essential to the govt to avoid collapse. https://t.co/e1TvvsFixh

Kurdish total fertility rate by country is interesting. In Iran it's below replacement. In Iraq, Kurdish areas have lower TFR than the Arab majority (& have for some time) but are way above replacement. In Turkey it's higher than ethnic Turk TFR & in Syria their TFR is unclear.

If 50-60% of the 4,238,010 Ukrainians living in the EU as of October 2023 never return to Ukraine the latter will be demographically devastated. The gender imbalance of having up to a million and a half women not return would simply be too large to overcome in all likelihood.

There’s a myth of high Muslim TFR in Russia & particularly in the Kavkaz area. As this map shows, Chechnya (population only~1.5M) is the only one with high TFR+the only one above replacement. Even Ingushetia+Dagestan are far below. Biggest Muslims groups (Tatar+Bashkirs) much lower. While Chechen, Ingush, Avar etc fertility is higher than for ethnic Russians these groups have very small populations and (as mentioned above) only Chechens above replacement. Slavic Orthodox Christians unlikely to ever be below 75% of the Russian population.

Interesting chart. With just early 2020s level immigration the US population would get to 404M by 2060. If immigration were cut BY HALF from those numbers we would still get to ~355M before leveling off & falling to 354M by 2060. Mass migration could conceivably push to 450M. Most policymakers in Congress & related think tanks find the 450 million U.S. future most appealing. This is because they believe this is the only way to continue paying for entitlement programs without cuts. Many also believe that being a country of 450M vs one of 404M makes the country far more powerful.

It remains to be seen whether or not there will be an sober & honest debate about which path the US should follow. There are clear arguments for an America of 354M one of 404M & one of 450M. American deserve more say in what path we ultimately choose not elites choosing for them. Mass immigration would have major consequences and could cause even larger pension & other problems down the road.

👶🇫🇷 France, the last bastion of semi “high” fertility in Europe (above 1.8 fertility rate from 2000-2019) is starting to collapse. TFR could fall below 1.7 this year (after falling to ~1.75 in 2022) to the lowest level in two decades. This may also be just the beginning.

The Canary Islands, with a significant population of more than 2.1 million people, now has a fertility rate as low as Taiwan & lower than Singapore. While Spain as a whole probably won’t fall below 1.0 TFR, entire regions may go into a fertility death spiral like the Canaries.