If current population trajectories donโt improve in coming decades the Baltic States will see their populations dwindle dramatically. From ~6.1M today to ~4.8M by 2050 to only ~3M by 2100. & this is the UN median scenario! It could be even lower in 2050 & 2100 if TFR keeps falling.
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๐ฉ๐ช๐ต๐ฑ๐ท๐ด๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ท๐ฌ๐ทFrom 1990 to 2023 a total of more than 3,090,000 Romanians,Poles, Bulgarians, Croats, & Greeks moved to Germany. In the coming three decades mass emigration from all those countries will have largely ceased. Germany will face a severe shortfall of skilled European immigrants.
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While itโs good irreligiously has stabilized & stopped increasing amongst thoseโฌ๏ธage 59, the generally low levels of religious adherence amongst Americaโs youngest augur a continuing Europeanization of American fertility. Medium term TFR of 1.5 or lower seems more & more likely.
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In Myanmar most anti government forces are held together only by their desire to defeat the junta. If/when that is accomplished the country could split into half a dozen statelets & massive emigration could ensue if fighting continues. Many outcomes lead to demographic disaster.
There has already been substantial emigration from Myanmar, with much of it predating the war. Well over 1.5 million Burmese have moved to Thailand & the vast majority will never return. If the country were to lose millions more to emigration any recovery would be much harder.
There has already been substantial emigration from Myanmar, with much of it predating the war. Well over 1.5 million Burmese have moved to Thailand & the vast majority will never return. If the country were to lose millions more to emigration any recovery would be much harder.
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The comeback of the titular ethnic group of Kazakhstan since 1989 has truly been nothing short of remarkable. In 1989 ethnic Kazakhs were only 39.7% of the population (down from 82% in 1897), by 1999 they were an ethnic majority again. Today (2024 estimates) Kazakhs are 71%.
This just proves that no matter how dire the strait or how dark the hour a nation can come back from oblivion. Latvia & Lithuania did too as have others. One should never just give in and say a nationโs people have no say in the national destiny. Lots can be reversed.
Doomers insist many countries are โdoneโdue to immigration & low native TFR & claim titular nation will no longer be the majority. Things are rarely permanently settled like this. Peoples have a say & eventually can influence policy. Most nowhere near Balts or KZ were in 1989.
This just proves that no matter how dire the strait or how dark the hour a nation can come back from oblivion. Latvia & Lithuania did too as have others. One should never just give in and say a nationโs people have no say in the national destiny. Lots can be reversed.
Doomers insist many countries are โdoneโdue to immigration & low native TFR & claim titular nation will no longer be the majority. Things are rarely permanently settled like this. Peoples have a say & eventually can influence policy. Most nowhere near Balts or KZ were in 1989.
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Demographics Now and Then
The comeback of the titular ethnic group of Kazakhstan since 1989 has truly been nothing short of remarkable. In 1989 ethnic Kazakhs were only 39.7% of the population (down from 82% in 1897), by 1999 they were an ethnic majority again. Today (2024 estimates)โฆ
Yes without immigration & without a TFR of ~2.1 population will decline but that is a choice for the peopleโs of each country to make. Also levels of immigration needed to keep population pyramids steady at dependence ratio of today are far too high for many societies to handle.
https://x.com/masagget/status/1782486417978859898
https://x.com/masagget/status/1782486417978859898
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Bahia now has a lower TFR than the rich southern States of Brazil,like Santa Catarina, Paranรก, & Rio Grande do Sul. The rich,urban,& heavily ethnic European South has stabilized demographically while the poorer more ethnically mixed Northeast sees its fertility fall like a rock.
Wouldnโt be surprised if all States of the Brazilian Northeast continue to fall until 1.3-1.4 TFR (or lower like that seen in some areas of Costa Rica) while South eventually stabilizes at a higher level at or above 1.45. Once lower middle class get smartphones TFR crashes hard.
Obviously Southern Brazil will see natural population decline first as they have had sub replacement TFR longer but the internal movement of people in Brazil will likely continue to be North to South & this may offset things somewhat.
Wouldnโt be surprised if all States of the Brazilian Northeast continue to fall until 1.3-1.4 TFR (or lower like that seen in some areas of Costa Rica) while South eventually stabilizes at a higher level at or above 1.45. Once lower middle class get smartphones TFR crashes hard.
Obviously Southern Brazil will see natural population decline first as they have had sub replacement TFR longer but the internal movement of people in Brazil will likely continue to be North to South & this may offset things somewhat.
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Halting emigration should be joint priority right next to boosting births. If your young people leave in droves you are ultimately doomed as a country. Belarus, North Macedonia,Tunisia, & many others must fight hard to avoid becoming Bulgaria or Romania. Emptying & vulnerable.
By the way the estimate in the image is far too optimistic for many of the countries listed IMHO.
By the way the estimate in the image is far too optimistic for many of the countries listed IMHO.
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Want to triple down on this. The population of Sub Saharan Africa will follow the lowest line on this projection. The SSA total will likely peak in the 2080s or before at ~2.35B before declining to 2.25B by 2100. So population density will be far far below India or China.
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๐น๐ผ๐ถTaiwanese births are actually extending their decline in the middle of the Dragon Year. Births are now โฌ๏ธ3.41% from January to July compared to the same time last year. More than 2,600 fewer births in total. TFR headed for possible lowest ever sub 0.85.
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๐ฑ๐น๐ถFor the first time in its history births in Lithuania are on track to be below 20,000 annually. In 1961 the # of births was more than 3X at almost 63,000. Births in the January to July reporting period are down almost 10% against the same time last year. TFR on track to be well below 1.1.
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Find the Christian South Korean 303 Project interesting. It proposes creating a core of Korean Christian believers with many children being among the primary goals. If this led to a small breeder cult it would be a huge success for them.
The 303 Project (303 ํ๋ก์ ํธ) wants its adherents to marry before age 30 & have at least three children. It seems similar to the so called Quiverfull movement (another Christian pro natalist initiative which urges the faithful to have as many children as possible).
https://t.co/KWx6jWdcPq
The 303 Project (303 ํ๋ก์ ํธ) wants its adherents to marry before age 30 & have at least three children. It seems similar to the so called Quiverfull movement (another Christian pro natalist initiative which urges the faithful to have as many children as possible).
https://t.co/KWx6jWdcPq
Mercator
There is hope for boosting fertility rates โ even in desperately low South Korea
Two small Protestant churches have embarked upon innovative programs to save their country from extinction
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๐ฌ๐ง๐๐In 2023 the UK saw 250,000 immigrants from India, 141,000 from Nigeria, 90,000 from China, & 83,000 from Pakistan. These were amongst the 685,000 net migrant arrivals last year. House prices and fertility may soon adopt a truly Canadian trajectoryโฆ
Housing cannot be built at the levels required. UK culture at present also places little prestige on childbearing. Remember that Canadian TFR is sub 1.3 & UK TFR (at sub 1.45 last year) could easily get to that point.
https://t.co/iQYAMjSDFZ
Housing cannot be built at the levels required. UK culture at present also places little prestige on childbearing. Remember that Canadian TFR is sub 1.3 & UK TFR (at sub 1.45 last year) could easily get to that point.
https://t.co/iQYAMjSDFZ
The Times of India
Indians made up highest number of immigrants to Britain last year - Times of India
UK News: In 2023, Indian nationals were the largest group to immigrate to the UK for work and study. The data from various sources illustrates the changing tre
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๐ฒ๐ณ๐ถMongolia has seen births โฌ๏ธ 12.3% in the January-July 2024 reporting period. This fall could drive TFR โฌ๏ธ 2.4 for the first time in over 15 years. Mongolia wont hit 5M people unless they achieve another substantial multi year demographic rally. Huge country few people.
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๐ญ๐บ๐ถRegret to inform you that births in Hungary have plummeted still further in July. Births are now down more than 10% in the January to July 2024 reporting period. The fertility rate is likely to fall below 1.4 in 2024 if this trend continues. https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok/#/en/list/nep
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Austrian births in 1st half of 2024 have taken a turn for the worst. Births now โฌ๏ธ ~1% compared to anโฌ๏ธin births of 1.3% recorded during the first quarter. Now instead of a small TFR increase to 1.33, expect it to be stuck at 1.32. Expect ethnic Austrian TFR to be lower still.
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Tough blows for Ukraine, a country of sub 40M people. 52,562 named deaths since February 2022. Average age 37.9. Most deaths are those in mid 20s to early 50s. Probable death toll likely well above 100,000. Russian toll very high as well (especially amongst those from DNR/LNR areas).
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๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ถThe total number of babies born in Scotland last year was the lowest since 1855 according to National Records of Scotland (NRS). There were 17,510 more deaths than births in 2023. There were also only 26,753 marriages in Scotland, an 11% decrease on 2022.
https://t.co/VNkohlEJ8v
https://t.co/VNkohlEJ8v
BBC News
Scotland's birth total falls to lowest recorded level
The number of births is at its lowest since 1855 but death rates for the population return to normal after Covid.
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